Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

In a bear market, offense means shorting; defense means going fully to cash; but right now, the best defensive strategy I can accept is rotating from altcoins into Bitcoin (or Ethereum). I really can’t bring myself to fully close my positions.

🔗：

Let’s talk about SL8 again. I’m still not drawing conclusions about the parts that haven’t been implemented. For the parts that are already available, we can assess them based on the current rules. The system behind the Stargate bridge hasn’t been fully tested yet. Until the mechanisms for BTC, ETH, XRP, 1:1 stablecoin backing, collateralization, custody, and redemption are all in place, taking sides early is meaningless.
What can be looked at directly right now is staking:
30 days 28% APY
90 days 38% APY
180 days 50% APY
360 days 62% APY

Bitcoin just entered September, historically one of BTC’s weakest months.
But I’m not closing my long. 👀
Entry: $58K
Current: $78K
Position: 50 $BTC
Unrealized PnL: +$1M
ROI: +172.65%
I’m trading the chart, not the calendar.
September can bring volatility. I’m still holding the bullish setup.

$98 SOL: real crash or fakeout?
Look at the surface first: oil surged above $95, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield soared to 4.81%, a three-year high, and the rate-hike probability jumped from 50% to 68%—high-beta altcoins were the first to get cut.
SOL fell from 110 to 98, down 10%—sounds scary?
But look closely: in August, it rose from 70 to 110, a 57% gain. What is this little pullback today compared with that?
First: today's drop has nothing to do with Solana itself
Things blew up in Iran, Brent crude broke above 95, and the market switched to risk-off mode. BTC fell only 1%, SOL fell 4%, and TRX also dropped more than 3%—understand now?
This is called "cutting the most volatile positions first," and it has basically nothing to do with Solana's fundamentals.
Second: 98 is a "breakout retest," not the "end of the trend"
In August, SOL posted its first bullish monthly candle in nearly 10 months, gaining 46% and surging from 70 to 110, breaking above 103-106 on heavy volume. Now it is retesting 98—what level is that?
It is a key zone where "former resistance turns into support." After rising, the price comes back to test the level, confirms support, and then continues upward. I've seen this script 100 times, but retail traders always sell at that exact pullback.
Third: over the next two weeks, the calendar matters more than the candlesticks
September 4: Nonfarm Payrolls; September 11: CPI; September 16: FOMC + dot plot.
CME FedWatch shows a 66%-68% probability of a 25bp rate hike in September, still much lower a week ago. Chair Warsh is hawkish, July PCE was 3.7%, and core PCE was 3.3%, far above 2%.
If Nonfarm Payrolls/CPI come in hot, rate-hike pricing will continue to rise and SOL will remain under pressure. If the data come in soft and geopolitical tensions ease, high-beta assets like SOL will rebound the fastest.
For those on the sidelines:
Wait for it to hold above 100 before going long on the right side, with targets of 105→110 and a stop-loss at 96
Or wait for a pullback to 94-96 and scale in—more comfortable
For those holding long positions:
Reduce 30%-50% around 98 to lock in your cost basis
Set defense for the remaining position at 94 (aggressive) or 90 (conservative)
Do not go all-in at 98. If adding, wait for a long lower wick at 94-96, or for it to reclaim 100
Short-term traders:
Test a long with a tiny position at 97.4-98.5, stop-loss at 96.8, targets at 100.5-102
Keep leverage below 5-8x; reduce it to 3x or stay flat before Nonfarm Payrolls/FOMC
If it rebounds to 100-102 but fails to hold, close first—don't fantasize about a direct move back to 110
Mid-term traders:
Wait to scale in at 94-96; don't go all-in at 98 now
The mid-term setup is invalidated if the daily close falls below 90, or if BTC loses 75,000 while Treasury yields continue to surge
Mid-term targets: first reclaim 110, then look toward 120-125
After a violent rally, there will always be a group of people who die in the pullback—not in the crash, but in the panic of "thinking it's about to collapse."
SOL rose from 70 to 110, and you didn't buy. It pulls back to 98, and you call it "garbage." If it drops to 94, you shout "going to zero." Then it rises back to 150, and you ask, "Can I still chase it?"
How many more cycles are you going to repeat before breaking this loop?
What is your SOL cost basis? Did you hold through this pullback? #Gate用户突破6000万 #美伊局势恶化原油大涨5.7% #Gate美股期权正式上线 $BTC $ETH $SOL

Let’s talk about SL8 again. I’m still not drawing any conclusions about the parts that haven’t been implemented. For the parts that are already available, just assess them based on the current rules. The system behind the Stargate Bridge hasn’t been fully tested yet. Until the mechanisms for BTC, ETH, XRP, 1:1 stablecoins, as well as collateralization, custody, and redemption, are all in place, taking sides early is meaningless.
What can be assessed directly right now is staking:
30 days 28% APY
90 days 38% APY
180 days 50% APY
360 days 62% APY

Meme coins are truly hot when they heat up.
But when it comes to buying in directly and holding on, I’m honestly a bit timid😂They feel great when they rise, but they really hurt when they crash.
I just came across a news flash: @Gate_zh has added 7 more multi-chain Meme futures products this time, with the top gain already reaching 288%:
That actually suits someone like me who wants to join the fun but doesn’t really dare to go all-in. When I want to participate, I can watch the price movements without necessarily having to hold the coins myself, so there’s less pressure.
Looking back at Gate over the past few years, it went from the spot trading everyone was familiar with to gradually expanding into futures, stocks, and more. Now it can even keep pace with something like Meme coins, where there’s a new story every day.
Put simply, whatever the market likes to play with, the platform has to keep up.
We used to chase a particular coin, but a lot of the time now, what we’re really chasing is sentiment.
So I’m also quite curious—if the next wave of Meme coins suddenly emerges again, can Gate continue to keep up this quickly?
Let’s wait and see. It’s fine to watch the excitement, but it’s better not to get carried away with our positions.

ETH at $2,380: Are you buying the dip or running for the exits?
First, look at the surface: Geopolitical conflict, with risk assets collapsing across the board.
The dominant factor today is not a problem on the ETH blockchain, but the US and Iran fighting again. Oil surged to $95, while US Treasury yields touched 4.81%, sending risk assets retreating across the board. ETH fell alongside BTC, but less than SOL—which is good news: it fell less than others.
The weekly chart is still above the breakout level, while the daily chart has already reached the lower edge of the flag. With 2438 lost, the next question is whether 2350 can hold.
First: Today’s drop is not because ETH is weak, but because macro factors are driving the sell-off
Major capital pushed the price from 1850 to 2550 in August, a gain of nearly 40%. Now that it has pulled back to 2380, the decline is less than 7%.
But what is really making the market nervous can be summed up in three words: another rate hike.
At the September 16 FOMC meeting, market pricing for a “rate hike” has already risen to 35%-68%. As oil prices rise and inflation expectations heat up, the market quickly shifted its expectations from “no move in September” to “possibly one hike.” Nonfarm payrolls, CPI, and the FOMC are all crowded into the first two weeks of September. ETH is not trading the escalation right now, but whether there will be another rate hike.
Second: Staking is locking up supply, whales are accumulating, and retail investors are capitulating
The staking rate is 35%, with 2.07 million ETH in the entry queue and a 36-day wait; the exit queue is close to zero. People who want to stake are still queuing, with no sign of large-scale exits.
ETF net assets stand at $15.2 billion, accounting for 5.2% of ETH’s market cap, with $1.85 billion flowing in during August. BitMine continues to add to its holdings, while whales increased their net holdings by 430,000 ETH in August.
But with staking yields at just 2.6%, below short-term US Treasury yields, this is not “yield-driven,” but more like long-term capital locking up its coins.
Third: The candlesticks tell you—2380 is a battleground, not a decided outcome
Weekly structure: The large August candle broke through the descending trendline that has been in place since the 2025 high. The key retest level is the 0.618 Fibonacci level at 2438. 2380 is now slightly below that level, making this week’s close extremely important.
Daily structure: ETH rose from 1850 to 2550 in August and then formed a flag between 2350 and 2550. After multiple failed attempts to break through 2480-2550, today’s move reached the lower boundary at 2380-2400.
The bull-bear battle—see for yourself
On one side:
A 35% staking rate, with a 36-day entry queue, showing firm lock-up commitment
ETF inflows for 12 consecutive days, with institutions buying
Whales increased their net holdings by 430,000 ETH in August
The medium-term structure remains intact after the weekly breakout and retest
On the other side:
Geopolitical conflict + oil at $95 + US Treasury yields at 4.81%
Whales moved 170,000 ETH to exchanges
Expectations for a September FOMC rate hike are heating up (35%-68%)
2380 is the lower edge of the flag; if it breaks, the price could fall to 2220
Above: 2438 (bull-bear dividing line) → 2480-2550 (supply zone) → 2780 → 2920
Below: 2350-2370 (first line of defense) → 2220 → 2050-2000 (medium-term lifeline)
Trading strategy
Scenario A: 2350-2380 holds
Wait for the decline to halt on increased volume and a lower wick to form, then test a long position with a small allocation. Stop-loss at 2345-2350, targets at 2420-2450 → 2480-2520.
Scenario B: 2350 breaks and the rebound fails
Use a rebound to 2360-2380 to reduce long positions or avoid going long. The next buying zone is 2280-2220; in a worse case, look to 2050-2000.
Scenario C: Price reclaims 2438 and closes steadily above it on the daily chart
Add to a medium-term position on a retest of 2438-2450, with targets at 2550 → 2780 → 2920. Until it holds firmly, treat 2550 strictly as resistance, not a breakout.
Around September 4 nonfarm payrolls, September 11 CPI, and the September 16 FOMC meeting, reduce leverage another notch, or hold only spot/low leverage. Oil prices and 10-year US Treasury yields should be watched before ETH on-chain data.
ETH is now in the “retest confirmation after a medium-term breakout” window—
99% of people see the drop and conclude that “the trend has reversed and a crash is coming,” but that large August candle tells you: the breakout is real, and the retest is real too.
At 2380, are you choosing fear or discipline?
A bull market will not end because of a one-day drop, but your account can be wiped out by going all-in on a single directional bet.
What is your ETH cost basis?
At 2380, are you buying the dip or staying on the sidelines?#Gate用户突破6000万 #美伊局势恶化原油大涨5.7% #Gate美股期权正式上线 $BTC $ETH $SOL

My conviction in $BLINK ,
is largely because @imsongshu was CTO.
When $ai16z had the whole market celebrating,
he was quietly building the ecosystem and bringing in whales at $swarm .
Following reliable people is never wrong.
0x7b630f080807df83908b4ade46ba6396ee66b098

At $76,500 for BTC, would you still dare to add to your position?
First, on the surface: Bitcoin violently surged from $62,000 to $81,000 in August, gaining 25%, and has now pulled back to around $76,500.
Bitcoin has just experienced one of its strongest months since 2026 began—spot ETFs saw $350 million in monthly net inflows, $1.4 billion in short positions were liquidated, and Strategy spent $920 million buying coins. Price remains above the 50/100/200-day EMAs, with the medium-term structure leaning bullish. After rising too much, it needs a rest—but it is not dying.
First: What happened in August? Institutions FOMO-bought aggressively
Bitcoin in August can be described in just four words: a short squeeze.
The U.S. Treasury expanded buybacks of long-term bonds, which the market interpreted as disguised easing
After a two-month hiatus, Strategy bought 4,603 BTC again, bringing its holdings to 845,000 BTC
Spot ETFs saw $350 million in monthly net inflows, with AUM approaching $100 billion
Short positions worth $1.4 billion were liquidated, pushing Bitcoin straight to $81,000
Many people were still waiting for a “second bottom” at $62,000 in early August, but the train left without them.
Second: September was only one day old, and the wind had already changed
On September 1, spot ETFs saw $236.5 million in net outflows ($201.2 million flowed out of IBIT), ending an 11-day streak of inflows.
U.S.-Iran tensions pushed oil prices above $90, stoking inflation concerns
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.81%, its highest level since January 2025
Japan’s 10-year government bond yield broke above 3% for the first time since 1996
The probability of a 25-basis-point FOMC rate hike on September 15–16 rose to 67–70%
Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech was hawkish
The macro narrative switched overnight from “the easing narrative” to “rising rate-hike expectations.”
Third: What are the candlesticks saying? Key levels have arrived
On the daily chart: Price remains above the EMA50/100/200 ($69,300–$72,400), and the medium-term structure remains bullish. However, RSI has fallen from overbought territory to 62, MACD is showing signs of a bearish crossover, and the recent decline from $81,500 has formed a “lower high.”
On the 4-hour chart: The EMA50 at around $77,500 has turned into resistance, and price is currently testing the $76,400–$76,800 support zone. If it holds, the rebound target is $77,700–$77,800; if $76,000 breaks, watch $75,000–$74,000.
Above: $77,700–$77,800 → $79,000–$80,000 → $81,500 (a breakout = trend recovery)
Below: $76,500–$76,400 (the current dividing line) → $76,000 → $75,000–$74,000
Bulls and bears are battling it out—make your own call
On one side:
August ETF net inflows of $350 million; the institutional bull-market logic remains intact
Strategy’s 845,000 BTC holdings, acquired at a cost of $8.1 billion; the long-term holder structure remains healthy
Price remains above all medium-term moving averages
From a halving-cycle perspective, the current 39% pullback is shallower than in historical cycles
On the other side:
The first ETF outflows of $236 million in September show that the short-term trend has changed
Rising rate-hike expectations + bond selling + higher oil prices: a triple macro blow
September has historically been BTC’s weakest month (Rektember)
The 4-hour EMA at $77,500 has turned into resistance, and the rebound is weak
What should you do next?
Short term:
Hold $76,500 + rebound and reclaim $77,800 → cautiously test longs with a small position, target $79,000–$80,000, stop-loss at $76,200
Break below $76,000 → turn bearish, targeting $75,000–$74,000 or even $73,500
Medium term:
After a 25% gain in August, Bitcoin needs time to consolidate. $76,000–$75,000 is a good accumulation zone (enter in batches)
Only a break above $81,500 will confirm that the trend has restarted
Bitcoin is now standing at a crossroads—
On one side is the institutional call for $100,000 before year-end; on the other are new highs in bond yields and rising rate-hike expectations.
The conclusion is straightforward: In the short term, Bitcoin is more likely to dip first and take off afterward.
At $76,500, are you adding to your position or reducing it?
Remember: Bull markets see many sharp drops, while bear markets see many sharp rallies.
More painful than missing the rally is being fully invested during a pullback. Opportunities always go to those with dry powder.
Did you miss this August move? Would you dare to add at $76,500?#Gate用户突破6000万 #美伊局势恶化原油大涨5.7% #Gate美股期权正式上线 $BTC $ETH $SOL

$805 ZEC: are you in or out?
First, the surface view: the ETF launch was the peak, and retail panicked, shouting “distribution.”
On August 25, Grayscale ZCSH launched on the NYSE. ZEC surged from 500 all the way to 886, gaining 80% in a month. Then what? It crashed back to 804 in a week, churning at highs and wiping out both longs and shorts.
The daily RSI has already pulled back from overbought territory. This is just a normal cooldown after an excessive rally.
The 800-810 psychological level is the bulls’ first line of defense. Holding it means a “retest confirmation”; losing it means 775 is next.
First: the ETF has launched, but the story isn’t over.
Grayscale’s spot ETF has launched—the first U.S. privacy-coin ETF—completely opening the institutional channel. Expected inflows are in the $500 million-$2 billion range.
Grayscale’s report itself positioned ZEC as a “financial privacy hedge in the AI era.” As AI makes it increasingly easy to deanonymize on-chain addresses, privacy demand is being repriced.
Second: after the vulnerability was fixed, ZEC is actually cleaner.
The Orchard pool vulnerability was exposed in June, sending the price crashing from 680 to 250 as everyone called for it to go to zero. Then what? The team completed a hard fork in five days, and Ironwood (NU6.3) activated in July. The new shielded pool and turnstile mechanism restored verifiable supply integrity.
It went from “supply integrity in doubt” to “verifiable and auditable.”
That makes a world of difference to institutions. The shielded pool has now surged to 4.4 million ZEC (about 26% of circulating supply), showing that genuine privacy demand is rising—not pure speculation.
Third: the macro environment is indeed adverse, but ZEC has an “independent script.”
BTC is under pressure at $77,000, U.S. Treasury yields have reached a 19-month high, and the FOMC rate-hike probability is 66-70%. Altcoins are being pressured across the board.
But ZEC is different—it is driven by its own catalysts and an independent rally. Grayscale’s ETF only launched a week ago, and the NU7 vote closes on September 14, with proposals including smoothing the halving and changing block times from 75 seconds to 25 seconds.
As long as BTC does not collapse, ZEC will continue to enjoy a premium. The macro environment is cold, but events are hot—this is ZEC’s current state.
Bulls and bears face off—you decide
On one side:
Grayscale’s ZEC spot ETF has launched, opening the institutional channel
Ironwood fixed the vulnerability, making supply verifiable and restoring institutional confidence
The shielded pool accounts for 26% of circulating supply, showing rising genuine privacy demand
The AI privacy narrative has been validated by Grayscale’s report
The NU7 voting window is open, keeping the topic active through September 14
On the other side:
The first-day ETF surge has already played out, and short-term profit-taking is pouring in
BTC is under pressure at $77,000, while rate-hike expectations are suppressing risk appetite
886 is an almost 8-year high, and overhead supply needs to be absorbed
804 is exactly the zone of bull-bear disagreement, where either side can be shaken out
Ultra-short-term support: 800-810, near the current order book; losing it could accelerate the move to 775
Strong support: 770-775, the retest zone after the previous-high breakout and the mid-term bulls’ lifeline
Deeper support: 750-760, the first target zone if the macro environment worsens
Near-term resistance: 840-860, the first area to watch on a rebound; failing to break through means continued high-level consolidation
Strong resistance: 880-890, this round’s high; only a breakout would count as a second-stage launch
Medium-term targets: 1000 / 1150+—only worth discussing after a high-volume move above 890
Trading strategy
For short-term traders:
If the 804-818 range holds and a 4H candle prints a lower wick before reclaiming 820, test a long with a light position and a stop-loss at 792-798. Take partial profits at 838-850; do not chase 880.
If price repeatedly gets slammed below 804, shorting a rebound to 825-838 is safer than chasing the short directly. Target 775, with a stop-loss above 855.
For swing traders:
Mid-term longs are still viable. First tranche: scale in at 775-800; second tranche: add after a confirmed reclaim of 850; invalidation: a daily close below 750.
The first profit-taking zone above is 880-900. Without a high-volume move above 890, do not treat it as a “new major uptrend.”
This pullback in ZEC is an “institutional accumulation window” after the ETF launch—
99% of people see the drop from 886 to 804 and think “the good news is priced in and it’s going to crash,” while institutions are accumulating in batches and waiting for the vote to be finalized and the macro environment to turn warmer before pushing it straight to 1000.
The day 775 holds, you will realize:
It was not that ZEC was weak—it was that you sold at the bottom of every retest.
What is your ZEC cost basis?
At 805, do you dare get in?#Gate用户突破6000万 #美伊局势恶化原油大涨5.7% #股票新客入门礼 $BTC $ETH $ZEC

I took a look, and this limited-time USDG yield opportunity on X Layer is actually quite straightforward. Through OKX Wallet, you can access Pendle + Aave’s PT-USDG in one place, separating stablecoin principal from yield, with APY as high as 6.8%. For idle USDG, the path is shorter and friction is lower, making it much easier than piecing together a strategy across protocols yourself👌👍

Robin Hood will probably see a brief pullback over the next few days. Last week’s rally was too intense. Everyone has been in a bear market for too long and has forgotten how spectacular it is when crypto starts pumping. Keep your hands off the trigger during the retracement and watch the market closely. Find strong projects, get in at good levels, and go hard—the next wave will be even stronger. We’re going to make a name for ourselves this year.

An unattractive woman is equivalent to a poor man. A flat-chested woman is equivalent to a short man. An overweight woman is equivalent to a bald man. When a woman says she doesn’t want children, it’s equivalent to a man saying he doesn’t want to buy a house. When a woman says she’s passive and slow to warm up, it’s equivalent to a man saying he has violent tendencies. When a woman is always loud and dramatic, it’s equivalent to a man who is always whiny and nitpicky. A domineering woman is equivalent to a mama’s boy. A woman who asks for gifts right after meeting.

Except for sudden, major events like COVID-19 and tariff wars, all other macro events, geopolitical news, and so on that we can currently observe can only be considered noise in terms of their impact on market movements. Whether it’s AI or crypto, internal drivers matter more.

The crypto world has called him “Sun the Reaper” for seven years, but with an 800-character post, did he get the entire internet to call him “Brother Sun”? Sun’s second long post has already turned public opinion around in China.
- “《New Youth》 and 《New New Youth》”
- “It gives me the feeling of a strategist from the Warring States period”
- “The first was a long post; the second was a declaration against bandits”
Last week, he wrote a long post exposing his ex-girlfriend’s private information. CZ publicly criticized him, his peers collectively distanced themselves, and the entire internet overwhelmingly condemned him for making Chinese men look bad.

ARB at $0.12—are you chasing it?
Look at the surface first: two big bullish candles, with retail traders shouting, "The bull market is back!"
On August 31, ARB surged from 0.084 to 0.109 in a record-breaking bullish candle, gaining over 30% in a single day. On September 1, it continued climbing to 0.119. 24-hour trading volume surged, open interest spiked, and the entire market was shouting: Arbitrum is finally about to take off!
First: Robinhood Chain is real value, not an empty narrative.
Robinhood built its own dedicated chain based on Arbitrum Orbit. After launch, its daily fee revenue reached $1.9-2.13 million, while DEX trading volume exceeded $1.4 billion—more than Arbitrum One itself earns.
Most importantly, 10% of the Orbit chain's net revenue flows back into the Arbitrum ecosystem—8% goes to the DAO treasury and 2% to the developers' guild. It brings the ecosystem more than $100,000 in real revenue per day, amounting to tens of millions of dollars annually.
L2s used to "burn money for users." Now Arbitrum has made the "rent collection" model work. Technical licensing plus revenue sharing—this is the first time an L2 has proven it is not a money-losing business.
Second: On September 16, the countdown to the 92.63 million-token unlock bomb begins.
On September 16, approximately 92.63 million ARB will be unlocked through linear releases to the team and investors, worth around $9-10.5 million and accounting for 1.3-1.4% of the circulating market cap.
Doesn't sound like much? But you need to know that ARB's unlock schedule continues through 2027, with new tokens hitting the market every month.
Third: Technical indicators are overbought, and funding rates are surging.
The daily chart broke out of the 0.075-0.10 range on heavy volume, while RSI is already approaching the overbought zone near 70. Open interest has spiked—this shows that leveraged capital is flooding in and longs are becoming crowded.
0.10-0.105 was the top of the range before the breakout and is now the key support-turned-resistance level. If it fails to hold, ARB could fall straight back to 0.10 or even 0.095.
The bulls and bears are fighting—you decide
On one side:
Robinhood Chain's daily revenue of $2 million+, representing real value capture
The Orbit chain revenue-sharing model is working, and L2s can finally "collect rent"
ArbOS 61 is a positive catalyst for institutional deployment
Weekly gains of 13-22% and monthly gains of 37-40%, with the trend turning bullish
On the other side:
The 92.63 million-token unlock on September 16 could trigger selling
The unlock schedule continues through 2027, creating structural selling pressure
RSI is overbought, open interest is too high, and longs are crowded
The 0.12 level has marked a top every time since last year
ARB's token capture of protocol revenue remains indirect and does not flow into its own coffers
Resistance above: 0.119-0.12 (psychological threshold) →0.125→0.14
Support below: 0.108-0.105 (breakout level) →0.10 (bottom of the range) →0.092-0.095 (solid floor)
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
Primarily stay on the sidelines. If ARB holds above 0.12 on heavy volume, you can cautiously go long on a pullback that holds, targeting 0.125-0.13, with a stop-loss at 0.112. If it breaks below 0.108 on heavy volume, exit immediately and look toward 0.10 below.
Swing traders:
Wait for a pullback to the 0.105-0.10 range and accumulate in batches, with a stop-loss at 0.092 and targets at the previous high of 0.119-0.125; if it breaks out, look toward 0.14. Reduce your position on September 14-15, then observe capital absorption on the unlock date before deciding what to do.
Risk-control rules:
Keep your position size below 3-5% of your account, with leverage no higher than 3-5x
Watch whether Robinhood Chain's fees can remain elevated
Watch for large transfers out on the unlock date
If BTC falls below $76,000, don't try to hold ARB up
This ARB surge is merely the first test of the L2 "rent collection" narrative—
99% of people see the 37% gain and think a reversal is coming, but forget that 90 million tokens are still waiting on September 16.
The day 0.12 fails to hold, you will realize:
It's not that ARB is no good—it's that you chase every time the news is hottest.
What is your ARB cost basis?
How will you trade on the September 16 unlock date?#Gate用户突破6000万 #美伊局势恶化原油大涨5.7% #股票新客入门礼 $BTC $UNI $ARB

$ETH / $BTC is at a critical technical level.
The monthly candle has closed above the MA20 but the key now is confirmation.
The last clean reclaim was in July 2020, when ETH/BTC rallied from 0.0315 to 0.088 and ETH surged from $225 to $4,372.
August 2025 also reclaimed the MA20, but failed to hold it and eventually returned toward the lows.
This time, ETH/BTC needs to turn MA20 into support.
MACD is also turning higher from the same zone that preceded the 2020 breakout.
If the breakout holds:
🎯 Target 1: 0.050
🚀 Stretch target: 0.088
With ISM at 54.6 vs 55.2 expected, growth remains strong but is cooling potentially giving the Fed more room to pause.
If MA20 holds, ETH/BTC could be setting up for a major period of outperformance against BTC.

Tether has bought nearly 50% more gold than China over the past six quarters.
A crypto company is now buying gold like a central bank. 🤔

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has hit a new high. Those who borrowed yen at low interest rates to speculate in stocks and crypto are highly likely to start selling the stocks and BTC they hold to buy back yen. Any further rise would be a bit impolite.