EricaHazel

October is coming, but Bitcoin has a bigger battle to fight than seasonality.
The Fed just delivered a 25 bps hike, while Goldman Sachs now expects another hike in October. The 2Y Treasury yield climbed to 4.734%, while the 10Y yield has moved above 5%, keeping liquidity conditions tight.
At the same time, BTC’s short-term holder cost basis sits around $70K. Losing that level could put newer holders underwater and increase selling pressure.
Yet traders are still positioning for volatility, with Bitcoin Open Interest rising after the FOMC.
October may bring the rally everyone expects, but macro

ETF flows are telling an interesting story in September.
Bitcoin ETFs are facing selling pressure, but Ethereum is showing surprising strength.
• $BTC ETFs: -$462.7M
• $ETH ETFs: +$216.4M on Sept 11
• $SOL ETFs: +$10.3M weekly
• $HYPE ETFs: -$26.4M
The key takeaway: this looks more like a rotation than a broad crypto exit.
BTC still leads, but ETH is clearly demanding attention.

ETH is finally showing some life 👀
After 200 consecutive days below 1.00, Ethereum’s MVRV has flipped back above 1.00, meaning the average holder is back in unrealized profit.
But there’s a catch.
A whale reportedly moved/sold around $408M worth of ETH, adding fresh selling pressure.
For me, the key battle is simple:
$2,500 = breakout confirmation
$2,300 = level bulls must defend
If ETH holds both, things could get spicy. 🔥
$ETH #Ethereum

Crypto market is getting interesting 👀
BTC is holding around $77K, with $80K to $82.8K acting as the key breakout zone.
BTC ETF flows remain positive, while ETH just saw its first ETF outflow after 12 straight sessions of inflows.
Meanwhile, macro is the real catalyst.
Weak jobs data could revive rate-cut hopes and push liquidity back into risk assets.
Strong data + higher yields could trigger another pullback.
For me, the setup is simple:
BTC above $82.8K = momentum expansion.
BTC below $75.7K = caution.
Until then, patience > leverage.

Bitcoin just entered September, historically one of BTC’s weakest months.
But I’m not closing my long. 👀
Entry: $58K
Current: $78K
Position: 50 $BTC
Unrealized PnL: +$1M
ROI: +172.65%
I’m trading the chart, not the calendar.
September can bring volatility. I’m still holding the bullish setup.

Crypto sentiment is heating up, but this rally may not be at peak euphoria yet.
• Fear & Greed Index is above 70
• Weekly RSI is deeply overbought
• Crypto market cap jumped 22%+ in a week
• But BTC ETF inflows remain below October’s levels
• U.S. buying demand also looks weaker than before
So yes, a pullback risk is rising, but the data doesn’t scream “October crash” just yet.
The bigger question is whether institutional demand accelerates from here.
Bullish sentiment can stay irrational longer than expected. 👀

Crypto has gone from one of the hottest markets to the worst-performing major asset class since January 2025.
Here’s the performance gap:
• Silver: +107%
• Copper: +66%
• Gold: +60%
• Nasdaq: +38%
• Russell 2000: +31%
Meanwhile:
• Bitcoin: -35%
• Ethereum: -47%
• Altcoins: -57%
That kind of divergence is hard to ignore.
Crypto has been heavily repriced while traditional assets continued pushing higher.
If the market eventually rotates back into risk assets, crypto could have some serious catching up to do.
Undervalued or simply out of favor? That’s the question.