Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

This integration with Lista DAO to launch ListaYield appears on the surface to provide yield management for Tax Tokens, but in essence, it is about competing for the right to capture on-chain liquidity. In the past, once projects graduated, most of their liquidity flowed directly into general-purpose DEXs. This time, the new OpenFour model takes the trading tax and invests it in Lista’s yield products.

I didn’t expect the pullback to be almost over. The bags I bought have basically started going up again, especially $Pons , which has hit a new high under its powerful buyback mechanism. The coins I currently hold are basically all solid projects that have been thoroughly researched in the group. For now, you definitely have to stay on Robinhood and keep playing. In another two or three months, once a large number of gold miners adapt to the new chain and start deploying all kinds of liquidity-draining tools, it’ll be hell difficulty. Enjoy the next two months. Golden September, silver October.

My Gate journey in one story 😂
I still remember when I first started trading…
I thought crypto was basically Buy → Hold → Profit.
Then the market introduced me to a completely different syllabus.
My first trade had me feeling like a professional trader.
I was already checking charts every 5 minutes, telling everyone, Bro, this is the next big move.
Then the market moved against me by 1% and suddenly I became a long term investor.
I learned about FOMO, leverage, stop losses, liquidation and patience… sometimes in the same week. 😭
Looking back, some trades make me laugh some make me question my life choices but every single one taught me something.
From my first nervous trade to now it’s been one crazy ride.
60M Gate users and millions of stories here’s mine.
And yes… I still open the chart after saying I’m done trading for today. 😂
#Gate60MUsers

Actually, I found out about this Bangladesh top-up service a few months ago. I immediately started offering top-ups on Xianyu. At first, I sold three months for over 100, then dropped the price to 60 after the competition intensified, and eventually the lowest price on Xianyu fell to just over 20🤣. However, I had developed some private channels, so I was still selling it for 60. By that point, I stopped selling. Now Xianyu has completely banned it, so everyone has moved to X to sell. Some are selling it for 2u, others for 3u. The costs are completely transparent now, and the competition has driven profits down to zero.

The larger the timeframe, the greater the stability; the smaller the timeframe, the weaker the stability. The higher the trading frequency, the greater the probability of errors; the lower the trading frequency, the lower the probability of errors. The more complex the trading system, the easier it is to fixate on details, while the simpler the trading system, the broader the perspective.
Using a simple trading system to trade large-timeframe market moves at low frequency is the correct approach.
This is merely Guilin’s practical confirmation, after years of hands-on experience in trading, of the principles passed down by trading predecessors.

Chen Guilin's Trading Notes: September 3, 2026 I. Put the nonsense first

[Whale/institution that unstaked 2.886 million HYPE at the end of July] completed its liquidation! 20 minutes ago, it transferred the last 969,000 HYPE ($79.18 million) to Coinbase Prime and FalconX. It accumulated and staked 2.886 million HYPE at approximately $19.8 early last year, then liquidated its entire position at approximately $64.9 over the past month. Realized a profit of $132 million (+228%).

Do you think ETH at $2,500 is expensive? Arthur Hayes has already seen $10,000
ETH price today: 2,390
Arthur Hayes' year-end target: 10,000
Potential upside: +318%.
You might say: “Another shill.”
But Hayes isn't making random calls. His macro logic is coming true one! by! one!
First, look at what happened in France.
On September 2, France's 10-year government bond yield reached 4.17%.
It was even higher on September 1, briefly surging to 4.21%.
Near its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis.
France's government debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to reach 118.5% in 2026 and exceed 120% in 2027.
French bank stocks fell 3% to 4% in a single day.
The entire European bond market is collapsing.
Now look at what the United States is doing.
On August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced that it would at least double the size of its long-term Treasury buybacks—from $2 billion to $4 billion.
The program will take effect on September 9 and cover bonds with maturities from 10 to 30 years.
Treasury Secretary Bessent also said: “It could exceed $4 billion.”
The U.S. government is personally stepping in to buy its own debt.
Put these points together—Hayes' logic is as follows:
France collapses → French banks are forced to reduce financing in the repo market → U.S. Treasury financing costs rise → hedge funds deleverage → the New York Fed is forced to expand repo operations → the Fed accelerates its monthly balance-sheet expansion to nearly $10 billion.
This is a liquidity chain of “tightening first, easing later.”
In plain English:
The more chaotic Europe becomes, the more the United States has to inject liquidity. The more liquidity there is, the more crypto assets rise.
The core indicator Hayes is watching is EURJPY.
He calls it his macro trading “North Star.”
EURJPY is currently around 185. His forecast is that it will fall to 140 or lower by June 2027.
The further it falls, the faster liquidity will be released.
And the crypto market is one of the assets that benefits most quickly from liquidity expansion.
Now look at another data point—M2.
The U.S. M2 money supply has reached a record high of $23.16 trillion.
It grew 5.41% year over year in July, the fastest growth rate since mid-2022.
Money is being printed, continuously. But ETH is still languishing below $2,500.
That doesn't make sense.
Hayes' own positions.
His latest article put it plainly:
“Bitcoin's long-term structural bullish position as the ballast of the portfolio.”
“The more speculative short-term bets through the end of 2026 are ETH (target price $10,000), ENA (target price $0.5), and ETHFI (target price $2).”
Then he added:
“Where did my ZEC go? Heaven knows, I guess it was stolen by AI from the Orchard pool.”
He's joking, but the signal is clear—ZEC has already been fully sold.
His positions are concentrated in: BTC (ballast) + ETH, ENA, ETHFI (offensive positions).
Some people say: “ETH has already risen a lot this year. Can it still go higher?”
ETH did rise significantly from its low in August. But Hayes is looking at the macro, not the candlestick chart.
France is collapsing, the United States is injecting liquidity, and M2 is reaching a record high.
These three things have nothing to do with how many points ETH has gained today.
They are trend-level forces.
You think ETH at $2,500 is expensive because you only see the price, not the liquidity faucet the Fed is opening.
In March 2020, when ETH fell to $90, some people thought it was expensive.
In November 2021, when ETH rose to $4,800, some people thought it was cheap.
Expensive and cheap have never been determined by price. They are determined by liquidity.
Hayes has also said that ETH could reach $20,000–$30,000.
$10,000 is merely a conservative target.
But every forecast carries risks. He is not a god, and he can be wrong.
But his macro framework is worth taking a serious look at.
When French government bond yields are setting new highs since 2008,
When the U.S. Treasury is personally stepping in to buy bonds,
When M2 is reaching a record high—
Do you think ETH at $2,500 is expensive or cheap?#Gate用户突破6000万 #加密市场回升 #Kimi秘密交表启动港股IPO $BTC $ETH $SOL

I’ve recently noticed SL8’s latest moves, and I think they’re pretty interesting 👀 On one hand, it’s using StarGate Bridge to bring 1:1-backed XRP, BTC, ETH, and USDT into the ecosystem; on the other hand, staking has also been launched, directly raising the yield tiers. Current promotion: 30 days: 28% APY 90 days: 38% APY Rewards are settled weekly. Compared with locking everything until the end, this schedule seems more straightforward.

Next week: This pullback may not be over yet; it’s just a matter of where support will emerge! More noteworthy than the current daily-level retracement is that the ETF inflows, short covering, and liquidity expectations that previously drove the rally are all cooling. My view: The probability is higher that the market will dip first and recover afterward over the next week, with overall weak, range-bound trading. For now, the conditions for directly restarting the main upward leg are not in place. Previously

Whenever $BTC closed August in green, September followed in red. 🔴
Will history repeat again this time?

$SUI could be setting up for a major bounce.
After a long pullback, $SUI is holding near the $0.70–$0.73 accumulation zone.
Bullish: Hold support → $0.79, then $0.85.
Bearish: Lose $0.70 → setup weakens.

Is Intel stock toxic or what?! I seriously suspect that Taokejun’s influence was so strong that he hyped it into a retail-investor trap.😂 Given the current volatility in hardware and chip stocks, you really need to be careful trading contracts. I have no opinion or advice if you’re positioning for the long term…

What are you waiting for? Afraid you’ll make too much money after getting in and won’t be able to resist hiring a young celebrity?

Two months have passed, and things have reversed. Now, going long on Bitcoin and Ethereum follows the logic of buying the dip in a bull market; going long on storage hardware is betting on a rebound in a bear market. My family of origin has also gotten better😂

Over the next week: This pullback may not be over yet; it all depends on where support is found!
More noteworthy than the current daily-chart retracement is that the ETF inflows, short covering, and liquidity expectations that previously drove the rally are all cooling.
My assessment: The probability is higher that prices will dip first and recover later within the week, with overall weak sideways movement. There are temporarily no conditions for a direct restart of the primary uptrend.
Previously, when prices surged into the $80,000 resistance zone, I did not recommend chasing the rally. Prices have now fallen about 6% from $81,500 and are retesting $75,000-$76,000, indicating that the overhead breakeven selling and profit-taking pressure is indeed significant.
Technically, the market has also shifted from attack mode to recovery.
The daily MACD has formed a bearish cross at high levels and the histogram has turned green, with upward momentum clearly weakening. However, the KDJ J-line has already fallen below the zero axis, and short-term selling pressure has been released relatively quickly, so continuing to chase shorts is likewise not worthwhile.
Calculated from the rise from $57,800 to $81,500, the 38.2% retracement level is approximately $72,400, and the 50% retracement level is approximately $69,600.
Key levels to watch next:
$74,000-$75,500: Holding this range could lead to a rebound above $78,000
$72,000-$73,000: A quick recovery would still count as a normal correction
$69,000-$70,000: A daily close below this range would indicate that the strong-rebound structure has been broken
The external environment is temporarily bearish, with U.S. Treasury yields rising and the Nasdaq pulling back as the market resumes pricing in inflation and interest-rate hike risks. ETF flows have also begun to fluctuate; institutions are not showing obvious signs of retreat, but their willingness to chase prices at high levels is declining.
This pullback is the first stress test after the rebound. The most important thing over the next week is to observe whether ETF flows, U.S. stocks, and spot buyers are willing to step back in at $72,000-$75,000.

Looking back at $NIULAI Bull Run's market cycle, perhaps what deserves more consideration than the gains themselves is the matter of the trading window.

HYPE at $81.5: Run or stay?
First, the surface view: choppy at the highs, with neither bulls nor bears daring to move.
It just hit an ATH of 86.8 on August 27, then pulled back 6% to around 81.5. It has risen 50%+ in a month, its market cap remains firmly among the leaders, and contract OI stands at $3.2 billion. The price is above the 20-day EMA (75), the ascending channel remains intact, and RSI has returned from overbought to neutral.
But on September 6, 9.92 million HYPE will be unlocked, with a nominal value of $800 million. Are you worried?
First: AQAv2 is here, turning HYPE into an “automatic ATM”
Previously, HYPE buybacks relied on 99% of fees. Now that AQAv2 is active, yield from USDC reserves will also be used for programmed buybacks and burns.
99% of fee revenue continues to fund buybacks
Yield from USDC reserves is also being added to buybacks
Second: With an $800 million unlock, what are you actually afraid of?
On September 6, core contributors will unlock approximately 9.92 million HYPE, with a nominal value of approximately $800 million.
Fact one: Historically, the amount actually claimed has been far below the calendar figure.
Unlocking does not equal dumping. Many contributors will continue holding or sell in batches rather than dump everything at once.
Fact two: The buyback mechanism is continuously purchasing, with buyers absorbing supply every day.
Who is on the other side of your trade? The 99% fee buybacks, USDC yield buybacks, and Strategies’ $2.5 billion war chest.
Third: The candlesticks show that the bullish structure is not broken at all
Ascending channel intact: The price is above the 20-day EMA (75) and 50-day EMA, while elevated ADX shows that trend strength remains intact
Fibonacci 0.618 retracement: Around 81.5 is a classic retracement level. From the August 30 low of 79.05 to the August 31 high of 85.37, it retraced exactly to the golden ratio
RSI neutral to strong: It is not overbought and still has room to rise
Key levels:
Support: 80.6-81.2 (golden ratio) → 78.98 (4-hour Supertrend) → 75 (strong support at the 20-day EMA)
Resistance: 82.7-83.5 → 84.4 → 86.5-87 (ATH)
You decide on the bull-bear showdown
On one side:
AQAv2 is active, and the dual buyback mechanism is in effect (99% of fees + USDC yield)
Strategies holds 29.3 million HYPE and continues to accumulate
Up 50%+ in a month, trend strength remains intact, and the ascending channel is unbroken
Nasdaq index inclusion + ETF inflow signal
On the other side:
An $800 million unlock on September 6 (nominal value)
Weak macro conditions, BTC under pressure at 77k, and rising expectations of rate hikes
FUD related to North Korean addresses
OI is elevated at $3.2 billion, with leverage amplifying volatility
How to trade?
Short term:
Try small long positions at 80.6-81.2, with a stop-loss at 79.5 and a target of 82.8-83.5. If it cannot hold 82.7, stay on the sidelines. Consider shorts at 84-85, with a stop-loss above 87.
Mid term:
Reduce your position around the unlock and do not stubbornly hold. If it holds 78-80 after the unlock and quickly reclaims those levels, it shows that buying pressure is strong; add on dips and target the ATH or even 90+. If it breaks below 75 on high volume, stay on the sidelines first—it may test 73.
You didn’t dare buy ZEC at 300, and you hesitated when ZEC reached 536.
You’re afraid of the HYPE unlock at 81, but you’ll be kicking yourself when HYPE reaches 100.
Every bull market first gets most people off the train, then races ahead without looking back.
On September 6, $800 million will be unlocked—is it you handing over your tokens, or someone else taking them?
What is your HYPE cost basis? Are you planning to run or add during this unlock wave? #Gate用户突破6000万 #美伊局势恶化原油大涨5.7% #Gate美股期权正式上线 $BTC $ZEC $HYPE

ETH’s 30% surge is now facing the real test:
acceptance above $2.5K.
Hold $2,438–$2,500 → $2,550/$2,920 opens.
Lose $2,438 → momentum weakens.
The bigger signal: 12 straight days of spot ETF inflows, even as flows cooled to $11M on Sep 1.
$ETH

Robinhood Chain infrastructure: Among lending platforms, I’m still most bullish on $Bow 0x451b42a15100c340ca12f7c66de06fac5ea2d751 Watching its TVL grow every day is like watching your child grow up I bought $bow last week, when its valuation was 1m and its TVL was less than 30k A week later, $bow ’s valuation reached a peak of 10m and is still at 5m, while its TVL has surged by more than 10x