Bitcoin has fallen below STH Realized Price, leaving short-term holders with a 10% unrealized loss. What does that say about the state of the market?
More in Morning Brief #300

Higher Funding Rates Mean You Should Short? Don’t Mistake Market Sentiment for a Trading Signal

In crypto perpetual futures markets, when funding rates keep rising, some traders believe longs are overcrowded and the market could reverse at any moment, so they choose to go short.

But high funding rates don’t mean prices are about to fall. They reflect the relationship between perpetual futures prices and market mechanisms such as mark prices, as well as the cost of holding positions for longs and shorts at a given time.

First, understand the role of funding rates.

Perpetual futures typicall

We are below the short-term holder realized price. The typical beginner trader is underwater. Reclaim $75,500 and hope returns — stay below and more people capitulate. At 26:54 in today's video
#Bitcoin #BTC #STH #Crypto #Trading

What Is Overfitting? Why Can More Perfect Parameters Make a Strategy More Fragile?

A trading strategy performs almost perfectly in historical backtests, with a high win rate, a smooth equity curve, and a small maximum drawdown. It seems to have found a market pattern. But once it enters the real market, it may suffer frequent losses. One important reason behind this is overfitting.

First, what is overfitting?

Simply put, it means a strategy has adapted too closely to specific fluctuations and random events in historical data, without actually extracting patterns that can continue to work ov

Steadily stacking wins, using stop-losses and not holding losing positions—doesn’t that deserve some support from my bros?

Phones can do much more than we think and @Acurast is a good example of that
I like how Acurast turns everyday smartphones into compute units instead of relying only on traditional data centers
Its network uses Trusted Execution Environments to keep workloads private and make execution verifiable
I think there is room to bring more AI apps agents and realworld services onto this infrastructure
The next big step for Acurast will be proving that smartphone powered compute can scale reliably for demanding AI workloads

What is statistical arbitrage? How can historical relationships between assets be used to identify trading opportunities, and why might historical correlations suddenly break down?

In the cryptocurrency market, some assets have long exhibited similar price patterns. When their historical relationship temporarily deviates, traders may try to capitalize on the divergence. This is the basic idea behind statistical arbitrage, but historical patterns do not guarantee future repetition.

First, what is statistical arbitrage?

Statistical arbitrage is a type of trading strategy that uses historical

What Is Trendline Trading? How Can You Identify a Valid Trendline, and Why Might the Same Trendline Be Broken Repeatedly?

In cryptocurrency trading, trendlines are an intuitive technical analysis tool. By connecting a series of price highs or lows, traders can observe the market’s overall direction and look for potential entry and exit opportunities. But trendlines are not unbreakable boundaries. No matter how neatly they are drawn, they cannot guarantee that prices will move as expected.

First, what is trendline trading?

Trendline trading involves connecting significant price highs or lows

$ETH The rebound is merely a correction; the bear market isn’t over!

Yesterday, ETH plunged from around 2064, successively breaking key levels like 2000 and 1950, and hit a low of 1893. The bears launched a powerful move, breaking straight through the bulls’ defenses!

Although it has rebounded from the lows, this looks more like a technical correction after the sharp drop and does not mean the trend has reversed.

That’s right—I’m still bearish for now. The 1940–1950 range is a key short-term resistance zone. If the rebound fails to break through it decisively, ETH could still retest the pre

#USJoblessClaimsBeatExpectations
US Jobless Claims Rise Above Expectations — A Cooling Labor Market Could Complicate the Fed’s Next Move

The latest US employment data introduces another important variable into an already complicated economic environment. Initial jobless claims increased to 200,000, exceeding market expectations of 194,000. Although the difference is relatively small, the reading adds to signs that the American labor market may gradually be losing some momentum.

However, the bigger picture requires careful interpretation. At 200,000 claims, unemployment filings remain histor

🚨 $BTC Healthy correction or the start of something bigger?

Bitcoin's weekly chart is flashing warning signs. Price has fallen below the 50-week MA ($75K) and is testing the 200-week MA near $68K.

🔥 Hold $68K → Potential recovery toward $75K–$80K.
⚠️ Lose $68K → $58K could be next.

Is this just a shakeout before the next bull leg, or are bears taking control?

What's your prediction? 👇

Not financial advice. Let the market decide.

#bitcoin #cryotocurrency #trading

Will Global AI Giants’ Investment Plans Shrink if Jensen Huang Steps Down?

Jensen Huang’s departure from Nvidia could affect not only NVDA shareholders, but the entire AI investment ecosystem.
Why?
Because Nvidia has done more than just sell chips: through investments and business partnerships, it has built close ties with cloud computing companies, AI labs, and infrastructure providers.
This means Nvidia’s role in the AI industry goes far beyond that of an ordinary chip supplier.
When there is a major change in leadership, investors naturally worry that existing partnership models may be adj

What Is Maximum Drawdown? Why Can a Profitable Long-Term Trading Strategy Still Experience Unbearable Consecutive Losses?

In crypto trading, some strategies may be profitable over the long term but experience significant losses along the way. If traders do not assess in advance how far their account could fall, they may be forced to exit before the strategy recovers. Maximum drawdown is an important metric for measuring this risk.

First, what is maximum drawdown?

Maximum drawdown (MDD) is the largest percentage decline in an account’s equity from a previous peak to a subsequent trough durin

Nobody enters crypto knowing everything.
Everyone starts somewhere: learning what Bitcoin is, understanding wallets, exploring blockchain networks, and making sense of unfamiliar terms.
Don't let complicated conversations discourage you from learning.
Ask questions, stay curious, and improve one step at a time.
Your learning journey is valid. 💡
‍#CryptoBeginners #LearnCrypto #Web3

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The Wolf Wave cycle may not have failed!

What Is the Bid-Ask Spread? Why Can a Seemingly Small Spread Keep Eating Into Returns Through Frequent Trading?

In crypto trading, many people focus only on price movements and overlook the spread between buying and selling. Even when the market price does not change significantly, frequent trading can incur ongoing costs from spreads and fees, ultimately affecting actual returns.

First, what is the bid-ask spread?

The bid-ask spread is the difference between the market’s best ask price and best bid price. For example, if an asset’s best bid is 100 USDT and its best ask is 100.10 USDT, the