#股票交易分享挑战 @Global Storage Industry Outlook: AI-Driven Long-Term Capacity Expansion Coexists with Short-Term Price CompetitionGlobal Storage Industry Outlook: AI-Driven Long-Term Capacity Expansion Coexists with Short-Term Price Competition
In the second half of 2026, the global memory chip market is showing pronounced structural divergence: AI computing demand continues to support high-end memory, while leading manufacturers are rolling out large-scale, long-term capacity expansion plans and weak consumer electronics demand continues to constrain the industry’s room for price increases.
Leading memory manufacturers expand capacity in concert, with new capacity concentrated for release after 2028
To meet the long-term growth needs of AI infrastructure, leading global memory manufacturers continue to accelerate capacity construction. SK hynix announced a KRW 54 trillion expansion plan, building two wafer fabs in Yongin and Cheongju, South Korea. The plan covers core products including high-bandwidth flash memory, DRAM, and NAND flash, directly addressing the high-speed computing and massive storage needs of AI servers and data centers while strengthening the industry’s long-term supply-demand foundation. Based on the construction schedule, capacity from the two new fabs will come online relatively late. The Yongin Y2 fab involves an investment of KRW 35.2 trillion, with construction starting in July 2027 and production beginning in June 2029, focusing on high-bandwidth flash memory and next-generation DRAM. The Cheongju M17 fab involves an investment of KRW 19.1 trillion, with construction starting in February 2027 and production beginning in December 2028, focusing on NAND flash. Overall, the additional capacity will mainly serve market demand after 2028, while effective new capacity will remain limited over the next two years. At the same time, SK hynix plans to invest a cumulative KRW 700 trillion in the two major industrial clusters, extending industry competition from technological yield comparisons to a long-term contest over capacity planning and mass-production schedules.
High-bandwidth flash memory supply determines delivery efficiency across the AI computing value chain.
High-bandwidth flash memory is a core supporting component of AI computing hardware. By stacking multiple layers of DRAM, it significantly improves data-transfer efficiency and directly affects the shipment volume, delivery cycles, and production costs of core hardware such as NVIDIA AI accelerator cards. The current rollout of AI computing hardware capacity depends heavily on a stable supply of high-bandwidth flash memory, making it a key midstream constraint on the expansion of the AI industry chain. Global cloud service providers continue to iterate on data center hardware architectures, further widening the supply gap for high-end memory. DRAM handles high-speed computing and access, while NAND flash provides massive data storage; together with high-bandwidth flash memory, they offer complementary functions that support the stable operation of AI infrastructure. Supply-demand fluctuations in memory products are transmitted throughout the AI chip, server, and cloud service value chain, directly affecting industry construction schedules and operating costs. Stable supply capabilities have become a core competitive strength for memory manufacturers.
The competitive landscape continues to evolve, while a tight supply-demand balance will persist in the short term.
Institutional data shows that Samsung Electronics regained the top position in global DRAM market share in the second quarter of 2026, intensifying competition over industry capacity expansion. Samsung, SK hynix, Micron, and domestic memory manufacturers are all advancing capacity expansion plans through 2028, by which time global memory supply will increase significantly. Due to the inherent timelines of fab construction, equipment commissioning, and yield ramp-up, there will be a clear time lag before capacity comes online. Institutions believe that the growth rate of memory demand driven by AI computing will continue to outpace the pace of short-term capacity releases, making a substantial decline in memory prices unlikely before the end of 2028. Industry competition is also intensifying. In addition to capacity scale, process technology, advanced packaging, product yields, and customer-certification efficiency are becoming core factors reshaping market share.
Divergence among product categories creates differentiated industry-cycle risks
The performance and risk profiles of memory chip segments differ substantially. High-bandwidth flash memory is closely tied to AI computing demand, with tight short-term supply and solid market conditions. NAND flash is more heavily affected by consumer electronics demand and enterprise procurement cycles, resulting in more pronounced cyclical fluctuations; historically, prices have declined multiple times after concentrated capacity expansions. The concentrated capacity expansion by global manufacturers can moderate the risk of substantial long-term industry price fluctuations, benefiting cloud service providers’ cost control. However, synchronized capacity expansion also carries cyclical risks: if AI demand growth slows or technology roadmaps evolve, new capacity could quickly turn into inventory pressure. SK hynix’s current large-scale investment is anchored to long-term demand from 2028 to 2030, so its short-term impact on the industry will be limited. The eventual return on investment will depend on subsequent AI server shipments and the strength of cloud capital expenditures.
Structural divergence in the DRAM market: servers remain resilient while consumer demand continues to weaken
The DRAM market is showing a clear divergence between supply and demand, with the server segment remaining robust. Downstream manufacturers expect supply to tighten further in 2027, prompting active inventory preparations, while server DRAM prices are expected to rise 13%–18% sequentially in the third quarter. However, long-term procurement agreements with leading cloud manufacturers have already reached price ceilings, and a clear price gap has emerged between contracted and non-contracted customers, with high-end DRAM price increases reaching their peak first. Consumer demand remains under pressure, becoming the core factor suppressing industry-wide price increases. Rising memory costs are driving PC end-market price adjustments, causing consumer willingness to decline. PC shipments are expected to fall by more than 10% sequentially in the third quarter, while manufacturers’ purchasing appetite has cooled sharply. The increase in smartphone DRAM prices continues to narrow, with sequential growth of about 10% in the third quarter and potentially falling to single digits in the fourth quarter. Consumer-grade general-purpose DRAM has posted impressive short-term gains, but spot prices are already lagging contract prices, clearly signaling that demand has peaked.
NAND flash price gains slow, while SSDs underpin industry performance and domestic manufacturers increase their share
The NAND flash market is gradually diverging in terms of price momentum. Weak consumer demand has caused wafer prices to stop rising first; wafer contract prices were essentially flat in July, while module manufacturers primarily focused on digesting inventory and market trading activity fell sharply. Mobile NAND products remained resilient, supported by catch-up price increases, rising by about 20% in the third quarter. Enterprise and client SSDs became the core support for the NAND industry, rising by about 20% sequentially in the third quarter and underpinning overall price resilience. During this price-increase cycle, domestic memory manufacturers have continued to increase their global shipment share through strong value-for-money and flexible pricing strategies, steadily enhancing the industry’s overall competitiveness. Institutions expect NAND prices to peak most likely in 2027, after which price gains will continue to slow. Institutions expect price increases to continue narrowing in 2026
Bernstein’s latest research report points out that the global memory chip price-increase cycle is nearing a turning point, with an upper limit on price increases gradually becoming apparent. In the third quarter of 2026, sequential increases in DRAM and NAND flash contract prices both narrowed to around 20%, slowing significantly from the second quarter and falling below optimistic market expectations. Although the industry’s supply shortage is expected to continue through 2027, factors including weak demand and price ceilings in long-term agreements continue to compress the scope for price increases.
At the market level, cooling expectations for price increases triggered a broad pullback in U.S. memory stocks. Shares of major manufacturers including SK hynix, Western Digital, and Micron all declined to varying degrees. Industry analysts said that continued increases in memory chip prices have become a cost burden for AI and consumer end products. Combined with price-ceiling constraints in the industry’s long-term supply agreements, the room for product price increases is essentially fixed, and the industry’s price-increase cycle has entered its final stage, leaving only opportunities for short-term technical rebounds.
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