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#OneGate见证计划 #BTC突破86000美元关口 This Week Ahead: Bitcoin Nears an Eight-Month High
Bitcoin opened the week with a strong rebound, quickly establishing itself above the $86,000 mark on Monday and reaching an intraday high of $87,395, touching a new eight-month high. After facing pressure at elevated levels, bullish momentum briefly consolidated, and the price steadily retreated to fluctuate within the $85,800–$86,200 range, entering a short-term phase of high-level consolidation.
The entire market’s trading focus is currently highly concentrated on three major macro variables: the strength of the U.S. Dollar Index, fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields, and Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Institutions and professional traders are generally choosing to wait and see, using this week’s dense macroeconomic data as the key basis for determining whether Bitcoin’s current uptrend can continue or enter a period of consolidation.
A major annual-level bullish structural signal has emerged on the technical front, providing strong underlying support for the market’s recent resilience. As of the latest market data on October 6, Bitcoin’s 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages are all trending upward.
The three core-period moving averages are about to complete their first full bullish alignment since 2025, forming a landmark pattern signaling a reversal in the medium- to long-term trend.
Key moving-average support is currently clearly layered: the 50-day moving average provides support at $84,019, while the 200-day moving average offers strong support at $80,313, underpinning the price layer by layer and sharply limiting downside room. This means Bitcoin’s recovery over the past three months is not merely a short-term rebound, but a structural bull-market recovery characterized by a rising trend floor and an upward shift in the center of chip distribution.
Even if a short-term technical pullback occurs, the overall uptrend will not be easily disrupted, and the medium- to long-term bullish structure has fully stabilized.
Capital flows continue to show sustained institutional net inflows, providing a solid foundation for the market at elevated levels. Data shows that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net inflows for three consecutive weeks, with cumulative weekly net inflows reaching $82.9 million. The pace of capital flows at the start of October has remained steady, with institutions not taking profits and exiting on a large scale at the new highs, indicating that long-term allocation capital remains firmly committed.
BlackRock’s IBIT remains the absolute leader in net inflows, continuously absorbing circulating market supply. Spot buying is solid, with no obvious signs of a sell-off collapse. Sentiment in the derivatives market remains relatively rational, with no overheated buildup of leverage.
Perpetual contract funding rates remain in a neutral-to-positive range, with no signs of extremely aggressive premiums. This new high has been driven more by genuine spot buying than by leveraged speculation. This is also the healthiest feature of the current rally compared with previous surges: low bubble risk, solid capital, and strong resistance to declines during pullbacks.$BTC

#OneGate见证计划 This week, the global macro calendar enters a super-dense window, with multiple major data releases set to directly reshape Federal Reserve rate expectations, the strength of the U.S. dollar, and the performance of U.S. Treasuries.
October 6 at 17:00 ET, the eurozone will release its August monthly retail sales data, with the market expecting 0.4% versus the previous reading of -0.6%. A recovery in European consumption data would signal marginal global economic improvement, indirectly weakening expectations for Federal Reserve easing and creating short-term pressure on risk assets.
October 7 at 14:00 ET, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its September FOMC meeting, the week’s biggest macro event. The market will focus on officials’ true views regarding persistent inflation, cooling employment, the timing of rate cuts, and the duration of elevated interest rates. If the minutes use hawkish language, the dollar will strengthen again, directly pressuring non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin and gold; if they are dovish, they will further open room for crypto assets to rise. At 15:00 ET the same day, the United States will release its August consumer credit data, expected at $12.5 billion, well below the previous $18 billion. Continued declines in consumer credit would signal cooling household consumption and borrowing appetite, weakening U.S. domestic demand and strengthening market bets on rate cuts.
October 8 at 08:30 ET, the latest U.S. initial jobless claims data will be released, with the market expecting 195k, slightly below the previous 197k. Initial claims have continued to show a mild upward trend, providing a consistent signal that the U.S. labor market is gradually weakening. Weak employment will continue to pressure the Federal Reserve to end its high-rate cycle, forming the core macro logic behind this rebound in crypto and risk assets.
October 9 at 10:00 ET, the preliminary October University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be released, expected at 48.1, unchanged from the previous reading. Consumer confidence remaining at low levels indicates continued caution about the future economic outlook, which is broadly conducive to maintaining expectations for easing-driven trading.
The crypto-native ecosystem enters a dense event window this week featuring Ethereum’s core upgrade rehearsal and a series of governance votes by leading DeFi projects. Starting October 5, Ethereum officially began a full-process rehearsal of the Glamsterdam upgrade on the Sepolia testnet.
The upgrade focuses on three core areas: the adoption of account abstraction, data availability optimization, and improvements to the gas fee mechanism. Once account abstraction is fully implemented, the barrier to on-chain interaction on Ethereum will be significantly reduced, enabling the mass onboarding of Web2 newcomers and becoming a key growth narrative for the next phase of the Ethereum ecosystem.
This testnet rehearsal clears technical obstacles for the official mainnet upgrade and represents one of Ethereum’s most important underlying technical iterations in 2026. At the DeFi governance level, multiple leading protocols have simultaneously opened key votes, directly affecting token selling pressure, treasury structures, and ecosystem expansion.
The Aave ARFC proposal vote ending October 5 plans to introduce external institution Sentora to operate the new Aave V4 lending ecosystem. The two sides will adopt a 50-50 revenue-sharing model, while Aave DAO will permanently retain contract administration rights and 50% of the revenue, substantially expanding Aave V4’s commercial boundaries. Once implemented, the proposal will move Aave from native DAO governance into a new phase of ecosystem co-development and commercial expansion, benefiting the protocol’s long-term valuation.
The AirSwap community signal vote also ends on October 5, with the core issue being whether to suspend official automatic selling when the AST token price breaks down. ConsenSys has historically sold AST over the long term to cover operating costs, creating persistent selling pressure on the token. If the vote passes, it will directly reduce ongoing secondary-market selling pressure and improve the token’s circulation structure, providing a substantial positive catalyst for AST.
The Balancer community treasury resolution vote ending October 6 aims to complete the cross-DAO liquidation and distribution of assets with CoW DAO. The resolution will orderly settle BAL and COW treasury holdings, achieve standardized asset distribution, and eliminate the risk of large-scale disorderly treasury selling. Once governance implementation is complete, the stability of the BAL and COW circulating supplies will improve significantly, benefiting the recovery of ecosystem valuations.
Taken together, the market’s overall logic is as follows: Bitcoin’s medium- and long-term moving-average structure has turned broadly bullish, institutional capital continues to flow in, and weakening macro employment data support the current bull-market recovery. Short-term high-level consolidation and a slight pullback constitute healthy post-high consolidation and a change in holdings, rather than a trend reversal.
This week’s dense macro data releases and on-chain upgrade events will determine whether the market can break through the $87,000 resistance level and begin a new major upward wave. If the dollar continues to weaken and dovish Federal Reserve expectations strengthen, Bitcoin will likely break its previous high and challenge the $90,000 mark. If the data come in unexpectedly hawkish and the dollar surges again, the market will enter a 1–2-week period of range-bound consolidation.

#英伟达股价新高 Nasdaq Hits a New High, Approaching 27,400: A Three-Way Rally or the Eve of a Bubble?
The Nasdaq hit another all-time high on October 5, 2026. It briefly approached 27,400 points intraday—this was not a slow climb, but nearly a 15% gain in less than three months since the late-July low. Just recently, the market was still debating whether the “tech stock bubble would burst”; now the discussion has become “how far can this rally go?” More interesting is the market structure: this is not a solo performance by one stock, but a collective surge by the five major tech heavyweight stocks—SpaceX rose more than 5%, Meta gained over 2%, Tesla and Microsoft climbed nearly 2%, and Nvidia rose more than 1%, again approaching its all-time high.
This broad-based advance is more noteworthy than an index being lifted by a single stock. The core judgment is that this new high is not driven by a single factor,
but by the resonance of three forces: rate-cut expectations, the AI theme, and premium valuations for star stocks.
But each support line has its vulnerabilities.
I The Sharp Turn in Rate Expectations: From 70% to 20%
The most direct catalyst for this rally is the rapid cooling of expectations for Fed rate hikes. Just over a week ago, the market still believed the probability of a rate hike in October was as high as 70%. By this week, that figure had fallen to 20%. Within a week, the market’s view of monetary policy had almost completely reversed. Behind this were two key data points that weakened: · September nonfarm employment came in below expectations, the unemployment rate held at 4.2%, and the labor-force participation rate continued to decline· PCE inflation data came in below expectations, with core PCE at 3.3% year over year, improving for three consecutive months. With inflation moving down and employment moving down, the Fed has less reason to continue raising rates.
For growth stocks, especially tech stocks, each step lower in rate expectations lifts valuations by another step.
But one detail deserves attention: the current federal funds target range is 3.75% - 4.00%, and the market is pricing in “no rate hike,” not yet a “rate cut.” If inflation data reverses, rate-hike expectations could return at any time—wasn’t that exactly what happened before September?
II The AI Theme Returns to the Throne: The Confidence Behind Nvidia’s $5.67 Trillion Market Cap
If rate-hike expectations are the macro backdrop, AI is the fundamental anchor of this rally. Nvidia’s share price hit a new all-time high last Friday, touching $237.88 intraday, bringing its market cap to $5.67 trillion and firmly securing the world’s largest market-cap ranking. This was Nvidia’s first new closing record since May 14. Just over two months ago, at the end of July, Nvidia had retreated nearly 20% from its high on concerns about slowing AI demand, wiping out more than $1 trillion in market value. At the time, the market was filled with talk of an “AI bubble bursting.” In just two months, the story has completely reversed.
Several hard data points are supporting this new high:
Latest quarterly revenue grew 105.9% year over year, while EPS exceeded market expectations
The company announced a record $150 billion buyback, signaling confidence
Morgan Stanley reiterated Nvidia as its “top pick,” with a $300 price target. From the late-July low to now, Nvidia has rebounded nearly 25%. It is the stabilizing force for tech stocks—as long as Nvidia does not collapse, sentiment across the entire AI sector will not dissipate.
III Star Stocks Rise Together: Broad-Based Expansion from SpaceX to Meta
What is most intriguing today is not how much Nvidia rose, but the structure of the stocks topping the gainers’ list. Leading the advance was SpaceX, whose intraday gain expanded to more than 5%. This newly listed stock, which only went public on June 12, once surged to a high of $225 before nearly halving in July, falling to around $108 at its low and shedding more than $1.2 trillion in market value. Now it has returned to the market spotlight. SpaceX’s rally is not based on exactly the same logic as Nvidia’s—it is telling a long-term story combining Starlink, space transportation, and AI infrastructure, with revenue of $18.7 billion in 2025, up 33%. That growth rate is not poor in itself, but compared with a market cap of $1.4 trillion, the valuation is indeed not cheap. Therefore, SpaceX’s sharp rise reflects more of a recovery in market risk appetite—when investors are willing to revalue high-growth stocks with high valuations, the first to move is the one with the greatest elasticity.
Now look at the other names:
Meta rose more than 2%—the dual themes of AI advertising and the metaverse, with its valuation still in a recovery channel
Microsoft rose nearly 2%—the clearest AI commercialization path through Azure cloud and Copilot
Tesla rose nearly 2%—Robotaxi expectations plus its energy business have made the story viable again. This kind of collective rise among heavyweight stocks is much healthier than relying on Nvidia as a lone pillar. But conversely, if these stocks correct at the same time, their drag on the index will also be greater.
IV Three Assumptions: The “Lifeline” for How Far the Rally Can Go
At this point, you may feel that everything looks wonderful. But every pillar of this rally rests on the assumption that “nothing goes wrong.” Stating these assumptions is a responsibility to readers, as well as to the integrity of my own judgment.
Assumption One: Inflation Does Not Rebound
The current downward trend in inflation is clear, but if oil prices, rents, or wage growth unexpectedly rise, core PCE could get stuck above 3%. At that point, the Fed’s choice would not be “whether to raise rates,” but “how many times to raise them.” This is the biggest macro risk.
Assumption Two: AI Capital Spending Does Not Slow
Nvidia’s earnings and the valuation of the entire AI sector are built on the assumption that tech companies will continue increasing their AI investment. If Microsoft, Google, or Meta issues capital-spending guidance below expectations in a given quarter, the entire AI chain will be repriced. Wasn’t that exactly what caused the July correction? Assumption Three: Earnings Growth Keeps Pace
In this round of valuation expansion, valuation expansion has contributed far more to the gains than earnings growth. The Nasdaq has risen nearly 15% from the end of July to now, but the upward revision in corporate earnings expectations over the same period has been nowhere near as large. The faster the rise, the greater the pressure for subsequent earnings to deliver. The third-quarter earnings season is about to begin, and this will be the first test.$NVDA

#Bitmine再增持持仓突破601万ETH The 5% target is within touching distance, but buying is quietly slowing down!
Bitmine (BMNRUS) now holds 6,016,414 ETH (approximately $16.4 billion), accounting for 4.9% of the total ETH supply—99% of the way toward its self-imposed target of holding 5%ETH.
Even more aggressive is its operating model: since launching in June 2025, it has bought ETH every week for 66 consecutive weeks without interruption, while 84% of its holdings (approximately 5.07 million ETH, worth $13.8 billion) has already been staked, with annualized staking returns expected to reach $363 million.
This is the "Strategy of ETH"—hoarding coins while earning yield, pushing the "institutional ETH accumulation" narrative to the extreme; but two turning points must be watched: ① The buying pace has slowed for three consecutive weeks (27,562→17,362→15,112 ETH). Will it continue buying after reaching the 5% target? ② ETH accounts for 94% of the company's $17.4 billion in total assets—a highly concentrated single-point exposure. ETH is both its strength and its weakness.

I. What makes this model so "aggressive": it is not just "hoarding," but "hoarding + earning yield"
Strategy: Hoard BTC, which generates no yield—purely "conviction + unrealized gains"
Bitmine: Hoard ETH, with 84% staked to earn a 2.63% annualized yield (expected at $363 million per year)—it is "printing money" while hoarding coins

Three layers of impact:
Demand side: Fixed weekly buying of $40 million+—more disciplined than dollar-cost averaging by retail investors
Supply side: 84% staked means approximately $13.8 billion worth of ETH is "locked away" from the circulating market—effective liquidity is tighter, creating genuine supply contraction
Signal side: Chairman Tom Lee's exact words—"Institutions remain underexposed to crypto and are expected to increase their exposure in the final months of 2026"—he is roadshowing the "institutional entry" story

II. But the two "turning points" matter more than the accumulation itself
Turning point one: The buying pace is slowing: 27,562→17,362→15,112 ETH over the past three weeks, with the latest purchase being the smallest weekly buy since mid-August—the sprint toward the 5% target is slowing.
The core question: What happens after the 5% target is reached?
Look at Strategy's playbook—the marginal effect of the "coin-hoarding narrative" diminishes: buying is bullish, but once the buying is finished, the "good news is priced in"
Turning point two: 94% single-point concentration: Of Bitmine's $17.4 billion in total assets, ETH accounts for $16.4 billion (94%)—this is not "allocation"; it is "all in." If ETH rises, the balance sheet looks better and buying continues; if ETH falls, assets shrink and the company may be forced to stop buying—the "coin-hoarding leader" itself becomes an amplifier of ETH volatility

III. Impact on ETH and the market
Bullish in the short term: Fixed weekly buying + staking lockups = ETH's "effective circulating supply" continues to shrink; the "public companies hoarding ETH" narrative is taking shape, with imitators likely to follow; the final step from 4.9% to 5% is itself newsworthy.
What to watch in the medium term:
Does reaching the 5% target mark the end of the narrative or a new beginning?—This is the litmus test for ETH's "institutional accumulation rally"
Staking concentration: A single entity locking up 5.07 million ETH is both a "lockup bullish factor" and a "network risk"
Compared with the BTC accumulation wave: Public companies collectively hold only 1.27 million BTC (6.4% of circulating supply); Bitmine alone holds 4.9% of ETH—the single-point concentration is far higher than on the BTC side

Bitmine has taken "coin hoarding" to a new level—combining hoarding, staking, and yield generation; 66 uninterrupted weeks demonstrate genuine conviction, while $16.4 billion locked in staking represents genuine supply contraction. But the "5% target" is both an endpoint and a test: the slowing buying pace and 94% concentration are a double-edged sword—it is currently ETH's "bullish engine," but could also become a future "selling overhang."

For ETH: The medium-term thesis gets a boost (institutional accumulation + staking lockups), but do not treat "Bitmine will continue buying" as a perpetual-motion machine—how it proceeds after reaching 5% matters more than how much it has bought
For BMNR stock: It is currently "ETH with 2.63x leverage" (94% allocation)—you can buy it to bet on ETH, but understand that its volatility is far greater than ETH's
For the market narrative: "Corporate coin hoarding" is spreading from BTC to ETH—this is a typical late-bull-market feature (asset scarcity + institutions seeking an anchor); the hotter the narrative gets, the more important it is to remember valuation

Bitmine's 66 weeks have proven that "conviction" can be quantified—but Strategy hoards BTC, Bitmine hoards ETH, and Lion Group hoards HYPE—when "hoarding" becomes a collective behavior, "hoarding" itself is no longer a source of excess returns, but the final baton in the relay. Institutions understand better than retail investors "when it is time to tell the story to someone else." #OneGate见证计划 $ETH ‌

#OneGate见证计划 #SOL现货ETF单日净流出924万美元 Institutional “slow money” is cooling, while on-chain “hot money” remains active—$120 is the dividing line
On 10/5, SOL spot ETFs saw net outflows of $9.245 million (BSOL outflow of $7.1 million, FSOL outflow of $2.1 million, with none recording inflows), but this is only the “tip of the iceberg”—the real signal is in the weekly data: net inflows were just $2.43 million last week, plunging approximately 99% from $188.2 million the previous week. At the same time, XRP ETFs are also cooling in tandem (weekly inflows down 94%+), while BTC ETFs are still attracting funds—this is not SOL’s problem alone, but a structural shift in which “altcoin ETFs are retreating across the board and funds are returning to the mainstream.”
But on the other hand: SOL’s price is holding above $120, while DEX trading volume and tokenized stock trading remain strong.
ETF outflows show that “new institutional money” has stopped, while on-chain activity shows that “old ecosystem money” is still there—SOL’s pricing power is shifting from the “ETF narrative” to “on-chain usage,” with $120 marking the dividing line.
A single-day outflow of $9.24 million is really nothing
Cumulative net inflows stand at $1.599 billion, and a single-day outflow of $9.24 million accounts for just 0.6%—this is not “institutional flight,” but “slowing incremental inflows.” What is truly worth watching are two structural signals:
Signal one: weekly inflows collapsed 99% ($188 million→$2.43 million). The record of 14 consecutive weeks of net inflows remains intact, but “new money” has virtually stopped—institutions have shifted from “actively allocating” to “holding back.”
Signal two: altcoin ETFs are cooling across the board, while BTC is attracting funds alone. SOL and XRP ETFs have simultaneously stalled, while BTC ETFs still took in $241 million last week—funds are “returning to the mainstream” (risk-off rotation), and the “institutional side” of altcoin season has temporarily gone quiet. This follows the same logic as after the nonfarm payrolls report: the negative news has been priced in, but funds only dare to buy BTC.
But on-chain activity is showing “another side”
ETF funds and on-chain activity come from two different groups:
ETF institutions (slow money): watching macro conditions, compliance, and liquidity—they are waiting on the sidelines
​On-chain players (hot money): trading memes, using DEXs, and trading tokenized stocks—they are still present
SOL’s price has held $120 despite ETF inflows collapsing 99%, thanks to the resilience of DEX trading volume and tokenized stock trading.
This is actually a good thing: SOL’s pricing is shifting from “institutional sentiment” toward “real usage,” making its foundation more solid—but the cost is that without the “incremental capital” from ETFs, the slope of its rise will slow.
Impact on the price outlook: three judgments
Short term: $120 is the center of the tug-of-war. ETF outflows (bearish) vs. on-chain activity (bullish)—holding $120 means a range-bound bias with strength, targeting $132 (the previous-high zone after four consecutive gains); breaking below $120 means a pullback to $110-115. The direction will most likely depend on external variables (BTC choosing a direction/macro conditions), as SOL currently lacks the ability to break out independently.
Medium term: SOL’s “valuation anchor” has changed. Over the past six months, SOL’s gains relied on “ETF expectations + the institutional narrative.” Now that the narrative is cooling, SOL must rely on real substance (DEX volume, tokenized stocks, and ecosystem activity) to support its valuation—this is a “disenchantment phase”: the bubble portion will be squeezed out, while the usage-driven portion will remain.
Structural judgment: altcoin season has been delayed, not canceled. Altcoin ETFs cooling across the board + BTC attracting funds means capital is “narrowing its circle”—only when BTC stabilizes at $87-90K and risk appetite genuinely returns will altcoin ETFs see inflows again.
The $9.24 million outflow from SOL ETFs is the “result,” not the “cause”—the cause is the broad retreat from altcoin ETFs and institutional funds returning to BTC; but SOL’s on-chain activity proves that the ecosystem is still operating. In the short term, $120 will determine the winner; in the medium term, it remains to be seen whether SOL can successfully shift from “institutional narrative” to “usage-based pricing.” $SOL ‌

#OneGate见证计划 Weekly Token Unlock Overview: ENA, HYPE, AERO, OP; Who Is Creating Pressure, and Who Is Just Going Through the Motions?
Token unlocks are nothing new, but when the amount is large enough and the proportion high enough, they can directly become a short-term pricing anchor for the market. This week features four relatively notable unlocks: Ethena (ENA), Hyperliquid (HYPE), Aerodrome (AERO), and Optimism (OP).
Ethena (ENA)
Unlocking on October 5, it belongs to the DeFi sector. Its circulating market cap is approximately $2.4 billion, with this unlock worth $40.58 million, corresponding to 170 million tokens and accounting for 1.7% of the current circulating supply. This is the highest-proportion unlock of the week. 1.7% is not extreme, but in the current environment of cautious market sentiment, it is enough to trigger expectations of short-term selling pressure.
In particular, as the core token of a synthetic dollar protocol, ENA has a relatively high proportion of institutional and early investors in its holder structure. If they choose to cash out after the unlock, its price sensitivity will be significantly higher than that of a purely retail-driven project.
Hyperliquid (HYPE)
Also on October 5. Its circulating market cap is as high as $20.1 billion, with this unlock worth approximately $340 million, involving 3.75 million tokens and accounting for only 0.4% of the circulating supply. The amount looks large, but the proportion is extremely low. For a leading DEX with a market cap already above the $20 billion level, a 0.4% unlock looks more like a normal supply release than a disruptive event.
The market's current pricing logic for HYPE is based more on trading volume, fee revenue, and buyback expectations. A single small-percentage unlock is unlikely to change the medium-term trend.
Aerodrome (AERO)
Unlocking on October 7. Its circulating market cap is $850 million, with an unlock worth $3.53 million, involving 4.1 million tokens and accounting for 0.4%. In terms of both amount and proportion, this falls into the low-impact category.
Its leading position among Base ecosystem DEXs remains intact, with liquidity and trading volume data supporting its fundamentals. This unlock will most likely be quickly absorbed by the market. Optimism (OP)
Unlocking on October 11. Its circulating market cap is $3 billion, with the unlock worth only $590k, involving 4.45 million tokens and accounting for 0.2%. It can almost be ignored. The Layer 2 sector as a whole remains in a phase where narrative and implementation are progressing in parallel, so OP's unlock is expected to have a very limited impact on its price.
The only one that truly warrants caution is ENA
Looking at the four unlocks together, the divergence is very clear: HYPE has the largest amount but the lowest proportion, so its impact is limited. ENA has the highest proportion, and its amount is also substantial, making its short-term pressure the most worth watching. AERO and OP are essentially just going through the motions.
The impact of token unlocks on prices has never been as simple as “unlocking means a drop.”
The key is to look at three variables: whether the unlock proportion is high enough (usually, it only becomes materially worth discussing once it exceeds 1%); who receives the tokens (the team, investors, or the community); and the market's risk appetite at the time. The overall market is currently in a digestion phase following Bitcoin's surge and retreat, and risk assets have become more sensitive to supply shocks.
ENA's 1.7% unlock falls right within this window. If concentrated selling pressure emerges after the unlock, short-term volatility could be amplified; conversely, if buyers absorb the supply strongly, the market may interpret it as “the bearish news has been fully priced in.”
HYPE is completely different. A 0.4% unlock is more like routine operations for it. What truly determines its direction remains trading data, revenue generation, and the pace of buybacks. As long as these fundamentals do not deteriorate significantly, a single small-percentage unlock is unlikely to become a trend reversal point.
How to approach this week's trading pace
For short-term traders, ENA is the only unlock event this week that requires close attention. Watch changes in trading volume before and after the unlock, large transfers, and whether there is any obvious buildup of sell orders. If the price drops rapidly after the unlock but trading volume does not increase, it often means the selling pressure was priced in ahead of time; if the drop is accompanied by increased volume, greater caution is warranted.
For medium- and long-term holders, the impact of the HYPE, AERO, and OP unlocks can all be treated as secondary. What truly determines their direction remains the competitive landscape and protocol revenue in their respective sectors, rather than a one-off release of tokens worth several million to tens of millions of dollars.
A token unlock itself is merely a disturbance on the supply side. It does not create value, nor does it eliminate value out of thin air; it simply puts previously locked tokens onto the market ahead of time. The market will ultimately tell you with real money whether these tokens were absorbed or dumped. The most important thing to watch this week is not “whether there is an unlock,” but “who is buying after the unlock.”

#OneGate见证计划 XBR and WTI: Why have they diverged?
One Earth, two benchmark prices
One rose 5.44% for the week, while the other fell 1.28%. This is not a data error; these two markets are telling two completely different stories.
First, what exactly are they?
XBR Brent is the benchmark price for North Sea crude, setting the price for Europe and most seaborne crude; WTI is U.S. light crude from Texas, setting the price for the U.S. inland market.
Normally, the spread between the two remains stable at a few dollars, and their movements are largely synchronized.
Now, why have they diverged this time?
Because the 100 million barrels released by the G7 this time are focused on diesel—with diesel reserves to be released in concentrated fashion over the first 20 days. And the market facing the real emergency right now is precisely Europe’s diesel market. After the news broke, European diesel prices plunged more than 8% at one point intraday, while U.S. diesel futures fell as much as 5.6% and ultimately closed down 3% at $4.50 per gallon.
This G7 move is targeting a “diesel shortage,” not an “oversupply of crude.”
The reason Brent is still above $102 and up 5.44% for the week is that the geopolitical risks behind it have not eased at all—the U.S.-Iran talks remain inconclusive, and uncertainty over Middle East supply persists.
WTI fell because U.S. domestic crude supply was already ample, and expectations of a reserve release weighed on it first.
Oil prices are not a single number, but a set of numbers.
The next time you look at oil prices, ask yourself first—which oil price are you looking at?
One detail many people do not know: Of the 400 million barrels of strategic reserves that the IEA announced for release in March this year, approximately 325 million barrels have already been released, more than 80%. The ammunition for this round of “oil release” is basically exhausted. If prices are to be pressured again in the next round, the focus will have to turn to OPEC+—and OPEC+’s capacity assessment has already been postponed.
Releasing reserves borrows oil from tomorrow to suppress prices today. The more you borrow, the harsher the backlash later. It is the same principle as running up your credit card…

#OneGate见证计划 Altcoin season has completely changed: projects with buybacks are skyrocketing, while those without buybacks are being eliminated
A new cycle has now begun, and all the projects that have emerged successfully are those with buybacks. The ones reaching the top are all projects with both buybacks and ETFs. Let’s review which projects have buyback mechanisms and have performed well.
First, the strongest buyback mechanism at present is automated on-chain buyback and burning. Since Web3 projects are currently issued on-chain, protocols automatically using their revenue to conduct periodic buybacks through smart contracts is highly consistent with the spirit of blockchain.
1. hype
hyper uses 90% of its protocol fees for buybacks, and hyper is also a 24/7 money-making machine, currently generating more than $1 billion in annual revenue. There is always such a “whale” continuously buying in the market, so the token price naturally keeps surging.
hyper has currently burned a cumulative 1.3 billion tokens, with an average of 50,000 hyepr burned daily.
hype surged as high as 97, bottomed at 23 in January 2026, and has now increased fourfold—simply unfathomable.
2. Pump
The second project with automated on-chain buybacks is pump, which uses 50% of its protocol fees for on-chain buybacks and burns the tokens directly. In April 2026, it burned $370 million worth of tokens in a single transaction.
pump has now burned 17% of its supply, burning $1 million worth of tokens daily recently. pump’s token price has increased fivefold since June 2026.
3. Uni
Uni’s fee switch was actually turned on last year, enabling programmatic buybacks and burns. Uni has now burned a cumulative 11.3% of its supply, with 2,000–4,000 tokens burned daily. Uni’s token price has also risen fourfold, from a bottom of 2.5 to the current 9.
4. SKY (formerly MakerDAO) is a veteran DeFi protocol that uses 55% of its protocol revenue for programmatic buybacks. However, the SKY bought back is not burned; instead, it is said to be removed from circulation, while some of the tokens are diverted to repay reserves, drawing criticism.
SKY’s token price has currently doubled from its bottom of 0.05.
5. Aster
Aster uses 99% of its platform fees for buybacks, apparently copying hyper’s model, but it does not burn the tokens; instead, it rewards Aster stakers.
Aster’s token price has not reacted much so far!
6. Pancake
Part of the fees is used for buybacks, triggered according to rules and cycles. However, CAKE has emissions, so it is not necessarily deflationary on a net basis.
Of course, there are many other projects with similar buyback and burn mechanisms, but they have not been included because the processes are not executed automatically in a programmatic manner.
In summary, the first four of these projects currently have the best performance among those using programmatic automatic buybacks and burns!$HYPE

#OneGate见证计划 #CFTC拟设加密资产市场新类别 CLARITY Act Hits Roadblock as Two Major U.S. Regulators Join Forces to Advance New Crypto Rules!
According to Woofun AI, as the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY) suffered a major defeat in a congressional vote, the path of U.S. cryptocurrency regulation has undergone a fundamental shift. President Donald Trump has made clear that even without legislative support, regulators must use their existing statutory authority to build a market structure.
Against this backdrop, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) have broken with convention and joined forces to advance a unified regulatory framework that does not depend on new legislation, aiming to quickly fill the power vacuum created by legislative deadlock.
This executive-led regulatory shift marks the industry’s transition from expecting congressional legislation to formally entering a phase of battles at the implementation level.
At a Fordham University legal blockchain regulation seminar held Monday, CFTC Chairman Michael Selig detailed this regulatory blueprint for bypassing legislation. He announced that the CFTC has issued a notice of proposed rulemaking called “CTX,” allowing cryptocurrency companies that provide leveraged or margin trading services to retail customers to choose to operate under the commission’s unified national oversight, thereby avoiding the complicated and fragmented money transmission laws of individual states.
Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that Selig plans to establish an entirely new “crypto asset market” category and incorporate it into the designated contract market (DCM) system, providing trading platforms with a compliant registration pathway.
Notably, the new rules explicitly exclude “ordinary spot cryptocurrency exchanges” that are conventionally regulated under state law. However, the CFTC retains the authority to enforce anti-fraud and anti-market-manipulation rules against entities providing spot trading services for assets such as Bitcoin (BTC). Selig stressed that this move is based on the same statutory authority used by the previous administration and is intended to provide the industry with a clear and predictable compliance pathway.
Before the CFTC’s action, the SEC took the lead in August by launching a “customized securities issuance mechanism,” demonstrating the two agencies’ determination to coordinate regulatory efforts in the absence of legislation. In an article published Monday, David Tawil of ProChain Capital pointed out that the political forces opposing the CLARITY Act may have underestimated the executive branch’s willingness and ability to act immediately in the absence of legislative constraints. This “executive-first” strategy aims to force the industry to adapt to new compliance standards by strengthening existing agencies’ enforcement and rulemaking powers, rather than waiting for Congress to engage in lengthy debate.
Tawil’s view reveals the deeper logic of the current regulatory environment: when the legislative process is obstructed, regulators tend to expand their jurisdiction by refining existing rules. This top-down stress test will directly challenge crypto companies’ ability to adapt to compliance requirements. However, progress on the regulatory framework faces serious personnel-structure challenges. White House officials disclosed last week that Trump plans to nominate new commissioners for both agencies “in the near future,” but as of Monday, the administration had not announced any list of successors.
Hester Peirce left the SEC on Friday after completing an eight-year term, earlier than the end of an 18-month extension to her second term. This personnel change leaves the SEC currently led by only two commissioners, while the CFTC is entirely run by Selig, who serves as both commissioner and chairman. This “hollowed-out” leadership structure has raised internal questions about the legitimacy and enforcement capacity of regulatory decisions.
The administration is attempting to force regulatory certainty through statutory authority, but with commissioner seats severely vacant, the long-term stability and ability to withstand judicial challenges of its policies remain highly uncertain.

#GT30日涨超40% GT Up 40%+ in 30 Days: The “Value Re-Rating” of Platform Tokens Has Begun
GT is currently around $11.20, up more than 40% over 30 days—the rally is driven by three forces working together:
①Burn mechanism (190 million tokens burned cumulatively, accounting for 62% of total supply; quarterly profit-based buybacks and burns remain unwavering);
②Ecosystem expansion (use cases such as Gate Layer, Perp DEX, and Gate Fun are turning GT from a “trading fee discount coupon” into “ecosystem fuel”);
③At TOKEN2049 Singapore on October 7, the Gate founder will deliver a keynote speech titled “One Gate, Everything Money,” previewing “one of the biggest upgrades in history.”
Assessment: The logic behind a “structural re-rating” is real—platform tokens are being revalued from “trading fee discounts” to “ecosystem value capture mechanisms”; however, the October 7 upgrade will most likely be a “buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news” event.

Three pillars supporting the “structural re-rating”
The burn mechanism is genuinely robust: GT is bought back and burned each quarter at market prices using exchange profits—2.55 million tokens ($20.68 million) were burned in 2026 Q1 and 2.57 million ($17.75 million) in Q2. Nearly 190 million tokens have been burned cumulatively, reducing the initial 300 million token supply by 62%. Moreover, there is a **dual-track model of “profit buybacks + use-case consumption”**—GT is also required for Gas on GateChain and is used in DeFi/NFTs, meaning it is both burned and used.
Zero-Gas transactions = a shift in demand-side logic: If “zero-Gas transactions” are implemented (using GT to waive transaction fees/on-chain Gas fees), GT will shift from “a card you buy to reduce fee rates” to a “network pass”—expanding its use cases and shifting demand from “holding it and waiting for it to rise” to “needing to have it in order to use it.” This is the core of the re-rating.
​Capital is voting with its feet: Gate saw $118 million in net inflows over the past 7 days, ranking third globally; GT’s 24H trading volume rose 27%; and its market cap surpassed $1.2 billion—the platform’s capital is flowing in, GT trading is heating up, and there is hard evidence of value being transmitted from the “platform” to the “platform token.”
But the October 7 upgrade is both a “catalyst” and a “realization point.” Of the 40%+ gain over 30 days, how much is “upgrade expectations” being priced in ahead of time?
After the speech is delivered on October 7: An upgrade that exceeds expectations → another surge; an upgrade that meets or falls short of expectations → a “buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news” pullback!
GT’s “structural re-rating” is real—the combination of burns + zero Gas + ecosystem expansion + upgrade expectations is shifting the valuation logic of platform tokens from “trading fee discounts” to “ecosystem value capture.” But a re-rating will not move in a straight line: the October 7 upgrade rollout is the first “litmus test.”$GT ‌

#BTC突破86000美元关口 Is Bitcoin at $86,000 today a rebound or confirmation of a bull market?
As of October 5, 2026, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $86,000, down from the yearly high of $87,000 reached on September 21.
The current price is below a key technical resistance level, with the market showing a neutral consolidation pattern and no clear bull-market breakout signal yet.
Reviewing recent price action, on September 21, 2026, Bitcoin surged to $87,000, its highest level since January 2026, gaining 6.7% within 24 hours. This rebound was mainly driven by four factors: expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy, continued inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, escalating global geopolitical risks, and the convergence of technical and market sentiment factors. However, after entering October, the price fell back into the $84,000-$85,000 range. CoinMarketCap data shows that as of October 3, Bitcoin had declined approximately 0.7% over 24 hours, while its seven-day gain was just 0.79%, indicating that upward momentum is weakening.
Bull-market signal or false breakout?
There is significant disagreement in the market over whether current conditions mark the beginning of a new bull market:
Optimistic view
Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity Investments' head of global macro, believes Bitcoin has hovered around the $60,000 support zone for nearly a year and that a new four-year-cycle bull market may have already begun. Bitcoin's Z-score relative to gold has shifted from -100% to positive territory, which is typically a bottoming signal.
Cautious view
Chris Sullivan, co-portfolio manager at Hyperion Decimus, warned: "This will be the first bull market of the new cycle, but when this rally ends, the market will see a sharp correction."
Technical view
Technical analysis shows that $84,000-$84,300 is a key 0.618 Fibonacci support level. If $82,500 breaks, the next major support level is around $80,000. The short-term trend is neutral to bearish.
Key indicators to watch
To determine whether the bull market has truly begun, the following core data points require attention: 1.24 million US ETF holdings totaling $2.1 billion, with IBIT recording a weekly net inflow of 2.28 million coins to exchanges.
On-chain data shows that long-term holders (holding coins for more than 155 days) recorded net inflows of 82,000 BTC from September 18-20, the highest level since December 2025; Bitcoin balances on exchanges fell to 2.28 million, the lowest level in nearly three years. These figures indicate that supply-side pressure is easing.
Overall, Bitcoin's move above $86,000 is more likely a strong technical rebound than a clear signal that a bull market has begun. The current price is below a key resistance zone and must break above $87,000 decisively and hold there to open the way toward $100,000. The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on October 28 will be the next major catalyst.
If the Federal Reserve sends a dovish signal, it could provide Bitcoin with further upward momentum; conversely, if its policy stance is hawkish, the price could fall back toward $80,000 in search of support.
Key price range: $84,000-$87,000. $BTC ‌

#英伟达股价新高 Nvidia Hits a New All-Time High, Opening a Valuation Relief Window—What Comes Next for the AI Compute Rally
The U.S. stock market staged a dramatic comeback. Nonfarm payroll data came in far below expectations, while falling oil prices sharply reduced market bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike in October. The Nasdaq and AI-compute leader Nvidia simultaneously hit new recent highs, semiconductor stocks rallied across the board, and the market entered a rare valuation relief window.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls added only 29k jobs in September, far below the market’s expectation of 90k. Employment data for the previous two months was also revised downward, year-on-year wage growth fell to 3%, the lowest since 2021, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The data sent a clear signal: the labor market is cooling. The market immediately drove the probability of an October rate hike below 10%. Long-term U.S. Treasury yields fell in response, while the dollar weakened.
For growth stocks such as AI-compute companies, long-term Treasury yields are the denominator in valuation. Over the past period, Treasury yields continued to rise. Even as corporate earnings estimates were repeatedly raised, stock prices remained suppressed by valuation compression. Under DCF valuation models, the value of future cash flows was continuously diluted by high interest rates.
Now, with labor-market cooling and falling oil prices, the two restraints on technology stocks are easing simultaneously. The market has officially entered a valuation relief window, and the rally may shift from “valuation compression” to an “earnings-driven” phase.
On the trading floor, Nvidia hit a new all-time high intraday, with its share price reaching around $237 and its total market capitalization approaching $5.7 trillion. Buoyed by sentiment, AMD, Marvell, Broadcom, ASML and the broader semiconductor supply chain rallied across the board, while the Nasdaq also set a new high.
The support is not only macroeconomic. Industry fundamentals are also providing backing. A JPMorgan research report pointed out that since June, forward 12-month earnings estimates for the semiconductor sector have been raised by nearly 30%, while the Magnificent Seven’s valuation relative to the broader market has fallen back toward a ten-year low range. Earnings remain resilient, and valuations are no longer expensive.
At a deeper level, the industry logic is changing: AI is moving from simple question-and-answer models into the era of agents. Agents require planning, retrieval, tool use and iterative retries, causing compute demand to expand severalfold. Compute consumption is no longer limited to a single conversation but extends across the entire task cycle. Demand for compute is spreading beyond GPUs, with CPUs, HBM, high-speed interconnects, memory and servers all set to benefit continuously. At the same time, lower interest rates reduce data-center financing costs. Many data-center expansion projects previously stuck at the break-even point now have the conditions to move forward, creating a positive cycle of “AI application boom → increased capital expenditure → earnings realization for chip companies.” Nvidia’s massive 235 billion stock buyback plan further shows that the company itself is using real money to affirm its long-term value.
But beneath the celebration, we cannot ignore the divergences hidden in the market. Many investors still remember that Nvidia has repeatedly plunged soon after setting new highs. In stock forums, calls that “a new high means an immediate plunge” are constant, and the risk of profit-taking once positive news is realized is always present.
Several key variables will determine how far Nvidia and the AI-compute sector can go:
First, expectations for Federal Reserve policy have eased but have not completely shifted. No rate hike in October has essentially become consensus, but inflation data remains stubborn. If CPI rebounds again, rate-hike expectations will return, Treasury yields will rise once more, and valuation pressure on growth stocks will return. This is the biggest macro risk. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have not been fully resolved, and oil prices could rebound at any time, directly disrupting inflation and Federal Reserve decisions.
Second, whether earnings expectations can continue to be met. The market has already priced in very high growth expectations. Subsequent earnings reports, cloud providers’ capital-expenditure guidance, and the pace of AI-agent commercialization will be the litmus tests for the rally’s substance. If capital expenditure falls short of expectations, stock prices will quickly price down those expectations. At the same time, cloud providers’ continued development of in-house chips will create potential medium- to long-term competitive pressure on Nvidia’s market share.
Third, the positioning structure at the trading level. After a rebound, positions in the compute sector will recover quickly. Once positive news is realized, sharp volatility driven by profit-taking can easily emerge. A new high does not mean a one-way move upward; major pullbacks and shakeouts along the way will become normal.
At present, the macro environment has opened the door to valuation recovery for AI compute. The long-term upward cycle in industry demand has not ended, but the rally will not simply rise in a straight line. Falling interest rates are the catalyst, but how far stock prices ultimately go will still depend on the realization of corporate earnings. The macro environment sets the stage, but performance is the true lead actor. $NVDA

#BONER逆势上涨逼近历史高位 Bloomberg-backed "crypto-stock meme": at its core, a liquidity game

BONER (Boner Coin) rose 17.8% in 24 hours, with its market cap briefly surpassing $70 million and approaching its all-time high—supported by two factors:
① Bloomberg's 10/2 special report, "Robinhood Stock Tokens Spark a $440 Million Meme Frenzy," featured BONER as the "star example";
② The "crypto-stock meme" narrative—pairing meme coins with tokenized U.S. stocks, with BONER having accumulated control of 53% of the tokenized HIMS float.
But remember three numbers you must understand clearly: the 53% "control" accounts for only about 0.014% of HIMS's actual total shares outstanding—this is a "token-level pseudo short squeeze," not a stock-level short squeeze; the price is set by the extremely shallow HIMS pool, which cannot absorb large capital inflows or outflows.
The narrative is genuinely sexy, and the risk is genuinely lethal—this is a short-term event-driven asset, not a value asset you can hold overnight.

I. Why BONER can rise: three layers of logic
First layer: Bloomberg's endorsement = a breakout signal. Bloomberg's 10/2 report covered Robinhood's $440 million on-chain meme frenzy: BONER controlling 53% of tokenized HIMS, AI paired with tokenized NVIDIA, and MEME paired with AMC—the mainstream financial media's first systematic report on "crypto-stock memes," effectively giving the sector a "regular-army entry ticket" and drawing in follow-on capital.
Second layer: the "fresh narrative" of crypto-stock memes. The mechanism is clever: when you buy BONER, the funds enter the HIMS stock-token pool—the speculative demand for the meme becomes buying pressure for the stock token, turning the stock token from "passive RWA" into a "speculative liquidity pool." BONER = "you're not buying a dog, you're buying HIMS's hidden option." The narrative itself has strong viral appeal.
Third layer: the "artificial scarcity" created by control. BONER has locked up 53% of the tokenized HIMS float—less HIMS in the pool means someone can "support" BONER's price; combined with KOL holdings (crypto influencer eric is a major holder), this creates a feedback loop of "the more it rises, the more people buy; the more people buy, the more it rises."

II. Why this is an extremely high-risk "liquidity game"
Risk one: The 53% control is at the "token level," not the "stock level." The 53% of tokenized HIMS float translates into only 0.014% of actual HIMS shares outstanding—you are controlling not HIMS stock, but a "shadow of the stock." When it is time to cash out, the shadow's value is determined by the pool, not by the stock.
Risk two: The pool's depth cannot withstand "smart money's exit." Professional analysis has already pointed out that the main HIMS/USDG pool has never had enough depth to absorb major selling pressure—"the short squeeze is over, but the capital flow that triggered the short squeeze remains." Translation: it feels great on the way in and hurts badly on the way out—a shallow pool means "you can get in, but you can't get out."
Risk three: The price has become detached from value. The price of tokenized HIMS was once far above the underlying stock's closing price—the market structure itself contains the risks of "unstable price tracking + liquidity fragmentation," a risk Bloomberg itself highlighted.
Risk four: Dependence on narrative momentum. This BONER rally is that of a "contrarian strong coin amid Robinhood's crash"—its strength is built precisely on siphoning liquidity from others' collapse; once the Robinhood ecosystem broadly recovers and funds flow back into mainstream memes, BONER's "safe haven" narrative will disappear.

BONER is a short-term breakout product combining "Bloomberg coverage + KOL holdings + a control narrative," but it makes money from a "liquidity game"—the 53% control is an illusion at the token level, the 0.014% real exposure is the truth detector, and the shallow pool is a double-edged sword. You can watch the show, or enter and exit quickly with a small position, but "holding for a doubling" means putting your life in the hands of the pool's depth.
The name BONER is itself a joke, but don't use real money to indulge the joke—the end of meme coins is liquidity, and the end of liquidity is bagholders. $BONER ‌

##美国9月非农新增2.9万 September Nonfarm Payrolls: Employment Trends Shift Abruptly, Policy Course Hard to Change
U.S. nonfarm payroll growth in September fell far short of expectations, while data for the previous two months were revised down simultaneously, showing cooling hiring momentum as the labor market continued to exhibit the characteristics of “low hiring and low layoffs.”
September nonfarm payrolls increased by just 29,000, significantly below the market expectation of 90,000, while total job growth for July and August was revised down by 60,000, reflecting a continued weakening in companies’ willingness to hire.
By sector, private-sector employment continued to post modest growth, but healthcare hiring slowed, while employment in finance, information, and professional and business services continued to contract, with pressure on white-collar jobs beginning to emerge.
The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, mainly because labor supply expanded faster than employment absorption. The labor force increased by 485,000 in September, with 406,000 moving into employment and 78,000 entering unemployment; the rise in unemployment came more from new entrants and reentrants to the labor market than from an increase in corporate layoffs.
After the data were released, the risk of an October rate hike declined, U.S. Treasuries strengthened, and stocks and gold rebounded. According to Fed Watch, the probability of an October rate hike quickly fell to 19% after the data release. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to around 5.20%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose by approximately 0.9% and 1.2%, respectively; spot gold briefly rose by around $40.
Regarding subsequent monetary policy, we believe the probability of another rate hike this year is declining, but not because of the simplistic logic that “weak payrolls mean rate hikes will stop.” In “Stop Fantasizing and Recognize ‘Warsh,’” we previously pointed out that Warsh’s policy assessment focuses more on inflation trends and sustained changes in the labor market than on fluctuations in a single month’s data. At the September FOMC meeting, the backdrop to his reinforced hawkish stance was that indicators such as PCE inflation and inflation expectations still showed upward pressure, while the credibility of anti-inflation policy still needed to be maintained. Therefore, weak payrolls are more likely to change short-term rate-hike expectations than to alter his policy framework; only when labor-market cooling persists and a downward trend in inflation is confirmed may the Federal Reserve further adjust its policy stance.
The scope for one more rate hike this year is being constrained mainly by easing inflationary pressures and the renewed stabilization of policy expectations. On the one hand, the energy shock has eased marginally, reducing the risk of a second rise in inflation. Europe recently discussed releasing diesel reserves, while the U.S. also called for increased diesel supplies, somewhat easing energy supply pressures; if oil prices continue to fall, the upward impact of energy on inflation will weaken. On the other hand, tensions within the Fed have eased somewhat, reducing the necessity of further rate hikes. New York Fed President Williams recently said that there was no need to rush policy adjustments; Fed governors also sent dovish signals, stressing that subsequent decisions would need to take changes in the data into account. After hawkish expectations were fully priced in, market concerns about another rate hike in the near term eased somewhat. #每周来晒

#GT三季度销毁近200万枚 Deflation is real, but long-term value has never been created by burning alone 🔥

Q3 data (10/5 announcement): 1,987,321 GT burned (approximately 1.99 million, worth $22.35 million), bringing cumulative burns to 191.9 million GT and reducing the total supply from 300 million by 63.98%.
One detail to note: Q3 burns (1.99 million) were approximately 22% lower than in Q1 (2.557 million) and Q2 (2.57 million), but the burn value was roughly comparable ($22.35 million vs. $20.68 million/$17.75 million)—because the GT price has risen ($11 vs. $7–8 previously).
The burn budget is “constant in dollar terms, declining in quantity,” which is a normal feature of a deflationary mechanism, not “burning less.”
Long-term value in one sentence: GT = Gate’s profit “profit-sharing rights” (returned through burns) × sustained deflation (supply only decreases, never increases) × ecosystem expansion (from discount coupon to fuel)—the product of the three determines the ceiling. Deflation is real, profitability is the anchor, and the ecosystem is the variable.

I. How to read the Q3 burn data: three figures, three layers of meaning
1.99 million GT per quarter: At this pace, approximately 8 million GT will leave circulation each year—an annualized deflation rate of roughly 7–8% against a circulating supply of 108 million. Not aggressive, but its strength is that it is “unwavering”—announced every quarter, verifiable on-chain, and never stopped in 7 years
​63.98% cumulative: Of the initial 300 million GT, 191.9 million has been burned, leaving only approximately 108 million in circulation—nearly two-thirds of the supply has disappeared. This is the first cornerstone of GT’s long-term value: scarcity
​$1.504 billion in cumulative burned value: Over the years, Gate has used every bit of its real cash profit to buy and burn GT—this is the strongest evidence of “profit sharing”

II. The core of long-term value: deflation is only an “amplifier”; profitability is the “engine”
Many people look only at burns when evaluating exchange tokens, but where the money for the burns comes from is the key:
GT’s formula: GT value = Gate profit × buyback-and-burn ratio ÷ circulating supply
Numerator (Gate profit): 60 million users, 37 state-level licenses, $7.394 billion in assets, and $118 million in 7-day net inflows, ranking third globally—Gate is making money, and making more and more
​ Burn ratio: 15% of spot + futures profits—the fixed “profit-sharing ratio”
​Denominator (circulating supply): 108 million GT, still declining each quarter
As long as Gate’s profits grow, GT’s “earnings per coin” will continue to strengthen—burns turn this strengthening into something “embedded” in the token price. Deflation itself does not create value; it amplifies the denominator effect of Gate’s “profitability”!
Q3’s 63.98% deflation is “certain scarcity,” Gate’s profitability is the “certain engine,” and the 10/7 ecosystem upgrade is the “biggest variable”—deflation provides the “floor,” profits provide the “growth rate,” and the upgrade provides the “imagination.”
The GT story is worth telling for the long term, and GT has a promising future 🔥🔥🔥$GT ‌

#布局本周交易 #每周来晒 Part 1: Position Management

This week's trading plan: Trim GT, hold DOGE, keep powder dry— in choppy markets, position sizing matters more than direction

After the favorable nonfarm payrolls data came in, BTC surged to $87K before falling back, and $85K was reclaimed and lost again—the market has entered a "data vacuum" choppy market. The biggest variable this week is just one thing: Gate's upgrade speech at TOKEN2049 tomorrow (10/7). In this kind of market, direction is not the focus; position structure is.

My position plan for this week:

GT: Currently in floating profit around $11; trim half before the 10/7 speech to lock in profits—if the upgrade exceeds expectations, buy back on a pullback; if it's underwhelming, wait for $10. Don't turn "expectations" into a position
BTC: Leave the core position untouched; hold as long as $84K holds, reduce the position and wait for $82K if it breaks; don't chase the upside—let it choose its own direction
DOGE: Hold a small position; $0.092-0.093 is the lifeline, and exit if it breaks; don't add unless $0.10 is broken
Cash: Keep 30%—before the October FOMC (at the end of the month), dry powder is more valuable than a position

This week, don't bet on direction; bet on "position flexibility"—have coins to sell if it rises and cash to buy if it falls. That's what positioning is all about.

#布局本周交易 #每周来晒 📌 Part 2: Asset Selection

Mainstream, altcoins, and US stock tokens: Which am I focusing on this week?
First, the allocation: 60% mainstream, 30% altcoins, and 10% US stock tokens—the three categories each have their own script this week, but their risk levels are completely different.
1️⃣ Mainstream coin (BTC) = ballast: It rose above $85K but fell back, while holding $84K—it is the "risk switch" for the entire market. If BTC stays steady, altcoins have a chance; if BTC breaks $82K, every narrative is just hot air. This week, I’m watching only one level: holding above $85K = increase exposure; breaking $84K = reduce exposure.
2️⃣ Altcoins (DOGE/ZEC/HYPE) = high-beta positions: DOGE is grinding below the $0.10 wall ($0.093), ZEC is forming a bottom after its plunge ($1,376), and HYPE’s treasury is accumulating, but unlock pressure is weighing on it ($88)—all are in a state of "having a story but not having started."
The rule for altcoins: Either wait for a breakout signal or stay out. Only when DOGE breaks $0.0966 on heavy volume is it time for its performance.
3️⃣ US stock tokens (BONER/AI/MEME) = watchlist positions:
They did indeed heat up after the Bloomberg report (BONER’s market cap surged to $70 million), but the lesson that "53% control accounts for only 0.014% of the actual equity" is right there—new narrative, shallow liquidity, huge risk. Only trade them on an event-driven basis, entering and exiting quickly; never hold for the long term.

This week, put the bulk of the money into mainstream assets we "understand," use a small portion to bet on altcoins that "have a story," and just watch the US stock tokens—the new track is worth watching, but there’s no need to stake your fortune on it.

#HYPE财库公司持仓超32亿美元 Add HYPE to the watchlist and estimate what price would be worth entering at
01 Price and revenue: The price has risen, but revenue shows no sign of rising
The price reference is the opening price of the Hyperliquid perpetual hourly candle at 8:00 a.m. Beijing time on October 4: $89.28, 8.9% below the September 23 perpetual daily candle high of $97.9. The opening price 30 days ago, on September 4, was $87.48, up 2.1%. The opening price one year ago was $49.48, up 80%. CoinGecko's rolling figures show a 3.5% gain over 30 days and an 83% gain over one year.
Revenue is based on DefiLlama. Over the 30 complete days from September 3 to October 2, protocol revenue and holder revenue were $72.76 million in fees, with holders receiving $56.36 million, or 77.5%, equivalent to $686 million annualized. Looking at the revenue structure, over the past 30 days, perpetuals accounted for 95.7% of fees, the spot order book for 3.6%, and HLP for 0.8%. Holder revenue also came almost entirely from perpetuals, plus a small amount from spot. Spot trading volume from September 3 to October 2 was $4.77 billion, up 17.4% from the previous 30 days. Whether it can grow is not apparent in the near term. Holder revenue in 2026 was $59.84 million in January, $59.96 million in June, fell to $38.42 million in July, and recovered to $55.89 million in September. The latest two 30-day periods were $54.32 million and $54.34 million, almost identical. Daily fees on October 3 were only $866,000, the lowest in the past 14 days.
The share remains number one, which reflects the existing stock, but there is no clear sign of significant revenue growth.
02 Token burns: The mechanism is real, but the number of tokens burned in the past 30 days cannot be verified
Fees go to the community. Spot and HIP-3 deployers can retain up to half. The Assistance Fund is an account belonging to the protocol itself. It uses the fees allocated to it to buy HYPE, and the purchased tokens are held at this address and removed from the circulating and total supply, which should constitute a burn.
At 8:00 a.m. Beijing time on October 4, this address held 47.66 million HYPE. Its nominal value was $1.335 billion, equivalent to approximately $28 per token. It also held 14.33 million USDC. If the $54.34 million in revenue from September 4 to October 3 were all used to buy tokens at $89.281, that would amount to approximately 610,000 tokens. Multiplied by 12 months, that would be about 7.3 million tokens, equivalent to approximately 3.3% of the current circulating supply. At the same price, assuming all holder revenue was used for purchases, the month with lower revenue, $38.42 million, could buy approximately 5.16 million tokens annually; the month with higher revenue, $59.96 million, could buy approximately 8.06 million tokens annually.
This range is calculated by multiplying the lowest and highest months that have actually occurred by 12; it does not mean next year will necessarily fall in between. The actual total buyback volume is likely to be somewhat lower, because not all revenue goes into buybacks.
03 Supply: Only 23% is circulating, and actual annual unlocks are difficult to determine
The cap is 1 billion tokens. The genesis allocation was as follows: 38.888% reserved for gradual future distribution, or 388.9 million tokens; 31% distributed at the beginning, or 310 million tokens, usable immediately; 23.8% for core contributors, or 238 million tokens; 6% for the foundation, or 60 million tokens; 0.3% for grants, or 3 million tokens; and 0.012% for HIP-2, or 120,000 tokens.
The core contributors' allocation is locked for one year, and most of it will only gradually become sellable by them between 2027 and 2028. At approximately 9:37 a.m. Beijing time on October 4, CoinGecko showed 222.4 million circulating tokens and 955.3 million total tokens, with circulation accounting for 23.3%. The page showed the next unlock on October 6: 9.92 million tokens for core contributors, approximately 4.5% of the circulating supply.
The truly large amount not yet circulating is the 388.9 million tokens from the genesis allocation, approximately 1.7 times the current circulating supply, but there is no date, and it may not be released in the next few months. The main problem is the lack of a table showing dates and actual claims.
04 Competition: Market share remains number one
According to OpenChainBench at 8:00 a.m. Beijing time on October 4, the combined trading volume of 27 venues over the past 30 days was $529.5 billion. Hyperliquid's main venue accounted for $187.2 billion, or 35.4%, with $12.8 billion in open interest. HIP-3's tradexyz accounted for an additional $61.2 billion; including it would raise the share to 46.9%. For the fees column, the figures that can be matched use DefiLlama's fees over the past 30 days, from September 4 to October 3. Hyperliquid's $67.11 million is perpetual fees and already includes HIP-3. The main venue cannot be broken out separately, so no separate figure is listed for tradexyz.
05 Valuation: Approximately 30x on the circulating supply, so the valuation is not cheap
At the 8:00 price, multiplying by the circulating supply gives a circulating market cap of $19.86 billion. Multiplying by the total supply gives $85.29 billion. CoinGecko's fully diluted valuation uses the current total supply, not the 1 billion cap. The calculation uses actual holder revenue over the past year, not the past 30 days annualized. From October 4, 2025 to October 3, 2026, holder revenue was $681 million. The circulating market cap of $19.86 billion was 29.2x revenue. Based on the total supply, $85.29 billion was 125x.
HYPE is currently at 29.2x, essentially no different from UNI at 30x, but it has an even more obvious disadvantage: approximately three-quarters is still not on the market, putting it at more than 120x based on the total supply.
Ask yourself: at what price would it be worth considering buying?
Using the actual $681 million in revenue over the past year and 222.4 million circulating tokens to work backward: 20x implies approximately $61, and 15x implies approximately $46. This is also based on two assumptions: annual revenue does not decline, and the circulating supply does not increase substantially.
So for now, this remains watchlist-only, with no action. $HYPE ‌