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#每周来晒 #非农就业数据 29,000! U.S. nonfarm payroll growth suddenly stalls—will the Fed still dare to raise rates?
The U.S. September nonfarm payrolls data was just released. On the surface, tonight’s report simply shows “tens of thousands fewer jobs,” but what really matters is that the U.S. labor market is clearly cooling, and wages are cooling along with it. For global markets, the biggest significance of this data is that it puts the brakes on further Fed rate hikes.
Let’s start with the most important figures. The U.S. added only 29,000 nonfarm jobs in September, versus market expectations of 90,000. The previous figure was initially 162,000, and the August data was also revised down to 133,000. September was far below expectations.
In other words, not only was September far below expectations, but the previous month’s data was not as strong as it had initially appeared. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%. Taken together, these two figures send a very clear signal: U.S. companies are rapidly slowing the pace at which they hire.
But what is actually more important is not the nonfarm payrolls—it is wages.
Average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% month-on-month in September, versus expectations of 0.3%; year-on-year growth was only 3.0%, also below the market expectation of 3.2%.
Why is this figure particularly important?
Because slower wage growth means less upward pressure on services inflation. The “wage-inflation spiral” that worries the Fed most has not worsened further, at least based on this report.
So this nonfarm payrolls report can be summed up in eight words: employment cooling, wages cooling.
Why, then, is the market actually happy?
Because what the market fears most right now is not a slightly weaker economy, but further Fed rate hikes.
After the employment data was released, gold and silver surged, U.S. Treasury yields fell significantly, U.S. stocks opened higher, the Nasdaq briefly led gains, and expectations for another rate hike in October declined further.
But don’t immediately interpret this as meaning that “the U.S. economy is heading into recession.” It is not that serious yet.
The latest U.S. initial jobless claims remain near historic lows, and there has been no sign of large-scale layoffs. So the more accurate description is: companies are less willing to hire new workers, but they have not yet begun laying off workers on a large scale.
Therefore, this nonfarm payrolls report is broadly positive for asset prices in the short term. It is positive for gold and silver because rate hike expectations have declined and interest-rate pressure has eased;
It is positive for U.S. technology stocks because high-valuation assets are most vulnerable to further increases in interest rates;
For A-shares, especially technology and growth sectors, any easing of global liquidity pressures is likewise marginally positive.
But what will ultimately determine whether the market trend can continue is still U.S. inflation.
So tonight’s nonfarm payrolls report can be summed up in one sentence:
The U.S. labor market has clearly hit the brakes, but the economy has not stalled. This combination is precisely the outcome that capital markets are most willing to see at this stage.

##美国9月非农新增2.9万 #每周来晒 How should we view the sharp weakening in nonfarm payrolls? — Review of the September U.S. Nonfarm Employment Data
New nonfarm payroll growth fell sharply month-on-month. U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by just 29,000 in September, far below the market expectation of 90,000. Regarding revisions, the July figure was revised down from 21,000 to -10,000, while the August figure was revised down from 163,000 to 133,000, for a cumulative downward revision of 60,000 over the two months. We believe that monthly nonfarm payroll growth is highly volatile, and a sharp weakening in a single month does not indicate a shift in the employment trend. On a cumulative basis, the U.S. added a total of 612,000 jobs from January to September 2026, 232,000 more than during the same period last year, indicating that overall U.S. labor demand is showing signs of stabilizing at the bottom. Private-sector employment increased by 46,000 in September, with a three-month average of 54,000, compared with 48,000 previously, marking a bottoming recovery for two consecutive months. In terms of market reaction, the sharp weakness in monthly job growth led the U.S. Dollar Index to retreat from elevated levels, Treasury yields to fall across the curve, and U.S. stock futures to strengthen, while rate markets significantly reduced pricing for a Federal Reserve rate hike in October.
Government and information-sector employment were the main drags. By industry, education and health services added 20,000 jobs, remaining the core pillar of employment growth. Leisure and hospitality added 10,000 jobs, while the previous figure was also revised down to 37,000. Construction and manufacturing added 11,000 and 9,000 jobs, respectively. Both edged down month-on-month, but showed clear signs of bottoming and stabilizing, potentially benefiting from the expansion of data-center construction driven by AI capital expenditure and a recovery in manufacturing production. Employment in wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, retail trade, and utilities remained at low levels and volatile, continuing to provide small marginal gains. Government employment fell by 17,000 month-on-month, making it the biggest drag this month. However, government employment has been highly volatile in recent months, with changes of -38,000 and 44,000 in July and August, respectively, indirectly contributing to the sharp fluctuations in overall nonfarm payroll growth. By comparison, the government sector cut a cumulative 287,000 jobs in 2025, while it reduced employment by only 40,000 from January to September this year, meaning its negative drag on overall nonfarm payrolls has eased significantly. Information-sector employment contracted by another 10,000, while financial-sector employment continued to decline, falling by 7,000. On a cumulative basis, the information industry has lost 224,000 jobs from its employment peak in early 2024, while the financial industry has cut 129,000 jobs from its peak in May 2025. Constrained by the labor-substitution effect brought about by the industrialization of AI, the broad trend of employment contraction in the technology and financial sectors has yet to reverse.
Labor supply continued to increase. The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in September, weaker than the market expectation and up from 4.1% previously. Structurally, the employed population increased by 406,000, rebounding significantly for two consecutive months, which may indicate that the impact of immigration on labor supply has weakened somewhat; the unemployed population increased by 78,000, with the actual unemployment rate reading rising further from 4.14% to 4.18%. By reason for unemployment, the number of people voluntarily leaving jobs fell by 173,000, while the numbers reentering and newly entering the labor market increased by 152,000 and 116,000, respectively. The data indicate that workers’ willingness to switch jobs has cooled, while more people are willing to seek employment, leading to a clear increase in labor supply. The labor-force participation rate continued to rise to 61.8%, above the market expectation of 61.6% and up from 61.6% previously; the employment-population ratio also rose by 0.1 percentage point to 59.2%. By age group, the labor-force participation rate among prime-age workers aged 25–54 rose to 83.7%, up from 83.4%, with the core labor supply remaining stable. The continued return of younger workers to the labor force was the main reason for the successive improvement in the labor-force participation rate in this cycle. The participation rate among those aged 16–19 continued to rebound, rising by 1.3 percentage points to 37%, while that among workers aged 20–24 increased by 0.6 percentage point to 71.5%. The participation rate among older workers aged 55 and above fell by 0.3 percentage point to 36.9%; constrained by population aging, the long-term trend for this group’s labor-force participation rate remains downward.
Labor market supply and demand were relatively balanced. The number of U.S. JOLTS job openings fell to 7.079 million in August, down from 7.335 million previously, and remained broadly at low levels with fluctuations; the job-openings rate fell to 4.3%, from 4.4%. Labor demand weakened marginally, while its absolute level remained low. At the same time, labor supply recovered slightly, with the labor shortfall, measured by the difference between job openings and the number of unemployed people, falling back to 48,000.
Overall, the U.S. labor market showed some recovery in supply and a marginal decline in demand, maintaining a relatively balanced pattern.
Nominal wage growth continued to slow. Average hourly earnings for U.S. nonfarm employees rose just 0.1% month-on-month in September, below the expected 0.3% and the previous 0.3%; year-on-year growth fell to 3.0%, a new low since the pandemic began in 2020, down from 3.1% previously. Looking at the year-on-year and month-on-month data of recent months, wage growth is clearly trending downward, and wage inflation pressures have eased significantly. Against the backdrop of slowing wage growth, the resilience of U.S. private consumption has increasingly relied on the depletion of personal savings. In addition, persistently rising long-term Treasury yields have increased borrowing costs for durable-goods consumption, with interest payments continuously eroding households’ disposable income. By August 2026, the U.S. household saving rate had fallen to 4.1%, the lowest since December 2022, further amplifying the risk of subsequent weakness in private consumption.
Utilities still had the highest wage growth. In September, year-on-year average hourly earnings across U.S. nonfarm industries showed clear divergence, with wage growth rising in some sectors and falling in others. In absolute terms, utilities wages were still up 5.95% year-on-year, significantly outpacing other industries; wage growth in most other industries was below 5%, with wholesale trade and education and health services at the bottom, rising 2.51% and 2.1% year-on-year, respectively. In terms of year-on-year changes, utilities wage growth continued to decline by 0.77 percentage point, the largest drop among all industries; year-on-year wage growth in finance and manufacturing also fell by 0.52 and 0.29 percentage point, respectively. Leisure and hospitality and education and health services rebounded by 0.25 and 0.31 percentage point year-on-year, respectively, the largest increases among all industries.
Real wage growth turned more negative. After adjusting for prices, the year-on-year decline in U.S. real hourly earnings widened to -0.3% in August, from -0.1% previously, while the month-on-month change also fell by 0.1%, returning to negative growth. In terms of the drivers, this was mainly due to a further slowdown in nominal wage growth: August PCE inflation remained at 3.4% year-on-year, while nominal hourly earnings growth fell to 3.1%, a new low since March 2020. It is worth noting that international oil prices have risen again since August, creating a risk of a rebound in U.S. inflation. Even if nominal wage growth stabilizes at the bottom, household purchasing power will remain under pressure. Against this backdrop, real consumption by the U.S. private sector may remain under sustained pressure, and the K-shaped divergence within the economy may intensify further.
Expectations for an October rate hike eased significantly. Employment data this month fell broadly short of expectations, showing a combination of unexpectedly weak total employment growth, a rise in labor supply that pushed up the unemployment rate, and continued slowing wage growth. After the data were released, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike cooled significantly: the probability of rates remaining unchanged in October rose from 62.4% to 83.9%, while the probability of a rate hike before December fell from 89.5% to 73.6%. In asset markets, futures on the three major U.S. stock indexes rose in the short term, the U.S. Dollar Index weakened, gold prices rebounded, and the 2-year Treasury yield briefly fell by more than 10 basis points. Overall, we believe that employment data at this stage are unlikely to be the core variable influencing the direction of Federal Reserve monetary policy. The policy focus remains on medium- and long-term inflation risks. Given that both short- and long-term U.S. interest rates have risen sharply since mid-to-late September, the market has significantly increased its pricing for the number of subsequent Federal Reserve rate hikes. If September inflation data subsequently undershoot expectations, there may be room for markets to trade on easing expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes, potentially driving a phased decline in the 2-year Treasury yield; however, constrained by worsening bond supply and demand dynamics, long-term Treasury yields will remain unlikely to fall significantly under the dominance of the term premium.
Risk warnings: 1) U.S. inflation rises more than expected. Commodity and services inflation rises more than expected;
2) Federal Reserve monetary tightening exceeds expectations. Due to higher-than-expected inflation, the Federal Reserve maintains high policy rates for an extended period;
3) U.S. economic downturn exceeds expectations. U.S. consumption and investment weaken unexpectedly.

#OneGate见证计划 SEC Approves 3x Leveraged ETPs: Bitcoin and Ethereum Gain a New Tool—How Will the Crypto Market Change?
Recently, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on social media that the U.S. SEC had officially approved 3x long Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs under the Securities Act of 1933. Also approved during the same period were 3x leveraged ETPs for commodities including gold, silver, crude oil, and natural gas.
The news quickly sparked heated discussion in the crypto market. Many people confuse ETPs with ETFs. ETPs are exchange-traded products that include categories such as ETFs and ETNs. What was approved this time were products with 3x long leverage.
Simply put, these products come with built-in leverage, allowing investors to bet on Bitcoin and Ethereum rising in U.S. regulated markets without directly entering spot or futures markets.
For the crypto market, the most direct impact is that channels for incremental capital are opening further. Previously, the launch of spot ETFs allowed traditional institutions to gain low-cost exposure to crypto assets; 3x leveraged ETPs now provide higher-risk-tolerance Wall Street capital with a leverage tool. Once institutions become bullish on the market, they can use these products to amplify their long positions, potentially pushing prices higher in the short term and magnifying market volatility.
But high leverage is always a double-edged sword. 3x leveraged products carry a compounding effect, so once the market pulls back, losses are amplified as well. Even a modest decline can cause the product’s net asset value to shrink rapidly. In extreme market conditions, rebalancing operations may be triggered, further intensifying market turbulence. This means Bitcoin and Ethereum prices will likely fluctuate more widely going forward than they have in the past.
In addition, the SEC’s one-time approval of leveraged ETPs covering both crypto assets and commodities sends another signal: U.S. regulators’ acceptance of crypto-related trading products continues to evolve. For overseas institutional investors, crypto assets are gradually being incorporated into the same commodity trading framework as gold and crude oil, and their asset-class attributes are gaining further recognition in mainstream markets.
Retail investors should be even more alert to the significant risks brought by leverage. Leveraged products are suitable for professional institutions, not ordinary retail investors.
Overall, this approval will boost sentiment in the crypto market in the short term and create more room for capital speculation, but it will also amplify sharp rallies and plunges. Going forward, it will be important to closely track capital inflows into these ETPs, as they will become a key indicator of traditional capital’s confidence in the crypto market.$BTC

#FIL Filecoin (FIL): The current price is approximately $1.04. October 15 will be FIL’s most important day of the year—the six-year lock-up period for Protocol Labs and the Filecoin Foundation will end, and annual new supply will plunge from approximately 88.4 million tokens to approximately 22 million tokens, a 75% decrease. This means the largest source of annual selling pressure is about to disappear, significantly tightening supply. Note, however: this does not mean the price will rise that day; the effects will gradually become apparent over the following months.$FIL ‌

#美国9月非农新增2.9万 US stocks may not be as safe as they look!
What makes US stocks most likely to let investors lower their guard right now is that even bad news can be traded as good news. Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 29,000 in September, far below the 90,000 expected in a Reuters poll, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The market immediately rallied because investors believed the Federal Reserve had less need to continue raising interest rates.
The S&P 500 is up nearly 13% this year and is about 1% below its record high.
Looking at the rally in AI leaders, it is easy to reach a comforting conclusion: the US economy is resilient, the technology revolution has room to run, and any pullback is an opportunity.
But US stocks today are not as safe as the indexes suggest. Put Nvidia’s performance alongside the share prices of Walmart and Costco, then look at the changes in McDonald’s business, and it becomes clear that the market is pricing in two economies at once: one economy is racing to expand computing capacity, while the other is preoccupied with the cost of living. AI companies are selling future efficiency, while consumer companies are testing today’s purchasing power. Gains in the former cannot remove the warning signs in the latter.
This is precisely why the sharp pullback in consumer stocks deserves attention. As of October 2, Walmart’s share price had fallen about 23% from its May high; as of September 30, Costco was down about 17% from its 52-week high.
Declines of this magnitude are enough to remind investors that so-called defensive assets can also inflict heavy losses on a portfolio. But directly translating falling share prices into “the collapse of US consumption” would also misread the issue.
Costco’s latest fiscal-quarter net sales grew 11.2%, while US comparable sales, excluding the impact of gasoline prices and foreign exchange, grew 7.2%. The business is still performing well, yet the share price is substantially below its high.
That is more concerning than a simple deterioration in results: a high-quality company is still growing, but the market is no longer willing to buy it at its previous price.
In the past, investors were willing to pay a high premium for consumer leaders, buying their brands, scale, membership systems, and cash flows that could weather economic cycles. The problem is that once stability is bought at too high a price, it becomes another form of vulnerability. A company can continue making money while its shareholders may not. As long as earnings growth fails to keep up with contracting valuations, even a good company can become a losing investment.
The signal from Walmart is more complicated. In the latest quarter, US comparable sales grew 2.6%, transaction volume rose 1.5%, and average ticket size increased 1.1%; the company also disclosed that market-share gains were led by high-income households. These figures need to be understood separately. Walmart’s growth may simultaneously reflect consumers continuing to spend and consumers shifting money they would otherwise have spent elsewhere. High-income households also beginning to seek better value is a competitive advantage for discount retailers, of course. But gaining market share and expanding the overall consumer market are two different things. A retail giant can produce a solid earnings report by taking customers away from competitors.
McDonald’s reveals the pressure at the other end of consumption. Global comparable sales grew 1.3% in the second quarter, while US sales rose just 0.8%. Reuters reported that the company’s promotions aimed at low-income consumers generated less incremental traffic than expected, and management also acknowledged shortcomings in execution. If consumers visit restaurants one fewer time and shop at supermarkets instead, retailers may benefit.
But if even low-priced meal deals struggle to generate enough incremental traffic, investors must keep asking: are consumers simply changing how they spend, or are they beginning to consume less frequently? The data is not yet sufficient to confirm a broad contraction. But moving from “buying something cheaper” to “buying one fewer time” often happens earlier than an official confirmation of a macroeconomic recession.
More troublesome pressure is coming from the cost of capital. On October 1, the 10-year US Treasury yield briefly rose to 5.34%, its highest level since 2002. Reuters noted that energy inflation, growth expectations, and competition for capital created by companies financing AI expansion are all pushing up long-term yields. This means that even if weakening employment causes the Federal Reserve to pause rate hikes, long-term financing costs may not fall in tandem. The central bank sets short-term policy rates, while the bond market must price in inflation, debt supply, and long-term uncertainty. If investors focus only on whether the next rate-setting meeting will be more dovish, they can easily overlook the fact that companies issuing debt, franchisees opening stores, and households buying homes are facing a different bill.
For consumer leaders, high interest rates create dual pressure: consumers’ disposable budgets are being squeezed, while the valuation of future cash flows is also under pressure.
A company assumed to trade at a P/E ratio of 40x has a current earnings yield of just 2.5%. It of course cannot be equated directly with Treasury yields, and corporate profits can grow, but once Treasury yields exceed 5%, investors naturally raise their demands: how fast must future growth be to compensate for the operating risks and share-price volatility? The market was once willing to pay a high price for “nothing going wrong.” It is now asking: “If nothing goes wrong, why is it still worth so much?” The pullback in consumer stocks may be this question entering prices early.
The AI boom makes the situation even more complicated.
AI investment can indeed create orders, increase demand for equipment, and support earnings across the supply chain. But from an industrial-mechanism perspective, large-scale construction also competes for capital, electricity, and engineering resources. Before the technology revolution delivers long-term efficiency gains, construction costs have already been incurred. Thus, while technology giants with substantial cash flow and financing capacity are expanding, ordinary consumers, franchisees, and traditional companies are carefully managing their finances. These two conditions can coexist completely. Index gains can also coexist with pressure on the purchasing power of some households.
More importantly, AI capital expenditure cannot be counted as two sets of profits. Money paid out by cloud giants is revenue for equipment suppliers; for the cloud giants themselves, it must be realized through subsequent service revenue and returns on investment. If investors both assign high valuations to suppliers’ orders and assume that every dollar spent by buyers will generate high returns, they are effectively buying the optimistic expectations for the same chain twice in advance. This also explains why consumption matters to AI investors.
Demand for advertising, e-commerce, and enterprise software will ultimately still be tested by customers’ income and budgets. Computing capacity can be built in advance, but paying demand cannot be guaranteed by construction itself.
The concern about US stocks is that the market is combining several assumptions that need to be verified separately into one reassuring story: if employment weakens, policy will ease; if AI investment increases, profits will rise; if consumer leaders fall, they will eventually recover. But if employment continues to cool, consumers begin reducing their purchases, and long-term rates remain elevated, the short-lived excitement created by policy expectations may be offset by earnings downgrades and valuation compression.
Going forward, consumer earnings reports need to focus on traffic and purchase volumes, not just sales after price increases; the bond market needs to focus on long-term yields, not just central-bank wording; and AI earnings reports need to focus on the revenue and cash flow generated by investment, not just the size of capital expenditure. The plunge in consumer stocks has not proved that the US economy is already in recession, but it has proved that the word “stability” cannot preserve overly high purchase prices. AI may of course continue to rise. But in a market increasingly dependent on the growth of a small number of companies while requiring consumers to bear higher living and financing costs, the margin of safety needs to be calculated more strictly.
The most dangerous illusion in US stocks is seeing leaders repeatedly reach new highs and assuming that the entire economy is moving upward. Indexes can be lifted by a few companies, but the purchasing power of hundreds of millions of people cannot be restored by rising share prices. The market is still cheering for the future, while consumer stocks have already begun checking today’s wallets.#每周来晒

#美伊谈判陷入僵持布伦特站上106美元 Oil Prices Falling First ≠ Risks Resolved! US-Iran Talks Deadlocked, with a Bigger Storm Brewing
The US-Iran talks have made virtually no substantive breakthroughs, with neither side willing to yield on its core demands. Oil prices fell by about 2.5% in the short term, but the market has already begun issuing warnings: once hostilities resume after the midterm elections, the latent geopolitical premium could quickly return at any time, meaning crude oil risks have not truly dissipated.
A highly intriguing scene is unfolding in the Middle East: negotiations have dragged on without results, while oil prices have instead begun to retreat. Many traders have started to believe that the geopolitical crisis is now behind them, but the market's concerns are actually quietly accumulating. The current indirect talks between the US and Iran have yielded almost no substantive progress. Neither side is giving an inch on its core demands, and both have clearly defined red lines, making it difficult to reach any key compromise. The US is taking a hard-line stance, while Iran is likewise unwilling to back down on key issues.
The back-and-forth indirect consultations have repeatedly taken place, but the sides have still been unable to produce a consensus plan that can be implemented. The talks have reached an impasse, offering the region no genuine sign of easing.
01 Short-term oil prices fell 2.5%—what exactly is the logic?
From the market action, crude oil prices fell by roughly 2.5% in the short term, and many people directly interpreted the decline as a sign that geopolitical risks were receding. In reality, this retreat was more a temporary digestion of short-term risk premiums, rather than a signal that the crisis had been completely resolved.
Earlier, the market had priced in an immediate escalation of the conflict, and a large amount of long capital had already pushed oil prices higher in advance; when the talks maintained communication channels without being directly declared a failure, some longs chose to take profits, directly driving the pullback in oil prices.
But it must be clearly recognized that the talks have neither broken down nor led to reconciliation. The sword hanging over crude oil has not truly fallen.
02 One major market concern: Will large-scale hostilities resume after the midterm elections?
Institutional traders are already beginning to discuss an important risk scenario: if the current talks completely fail, the possibility of large-scale military action resuming after the US midterm elections have concluded cannot be ruled out.
During the election cycle, the US side currently needs to take domestic public opinion into account and does not want to ignite a war immediately, drive up oil prices, intensify domestic inflationary pressure, and affect the vote. Once the election window closes and those constraints disappear, the uncertainties surrounding the Middle East will suddenly increase. If the conflict escalates again, the Strait of Hormuz, the global lifeline for oil, will face the risk of disruption directly, and the specter of crude oil supply interruptions will immediately return to the market's focus.
03 The core contradiction in crude oil trading: The geopolitical premium could return at any time
This is also the most difficult aspect of crude oil trading to gauge. Short-term market action can fall as longs exit, but geopolitical risks will not disappear in sync with the K-line. The current retreat in oil prices amounts to temporarily stripping away part of the geopolitical risk premium; as long as signs of an escalating conflict emerge later, that portion of the vanished premium will quickly return within a short period, and oil prices could once again see a surge at any time. In other words, this current round of declines does not mean one can blindly take a bearish view on crude oil.$XTIUSD ‌

#美国9月非农新增2.9万 #每周来晒 #非农就业数据 Nonfarm payrolls rose by only 29,000, yet U.S. stocks climbed instead of falling: What is this jobs report really saying?
I. What exactly was wrong with the nonfarm data
The two most important figures in the nonfarm payrolls report are nonfarm payroll growth and the unemployment rate.
September payrolls increased by 29,000, just 35% of the expected 84,000. The unemployment rate was 4.2%, up 0.1 percentage point from both the previous reading and expectations. Average hourly earnings rose 3.0% year over year, the lowest since May 2021. More notably, the previous two months were revised downward: July was revised from positive growth to −10,000, while August was revised down from 162,000 to 133,000, for a combined downward revision of 60,000.
It was not just September that was weak: although the previous two months were revised down by a combined 60,000, the weakness was not broad-based across industries. Healthcare, construction, and manufacturing added 17,000, 11,000, and 9,000 jobs, respectively; government, information, and financial activities shed jobs, with government employment falling by 17,000. Part of the rise in unemployment also came from an expansion in labor supply: the labor force participation rate rose from 61.6% to 61.8%, its highest since May; the broader unemployment rate actually fell from 7.7% to 7.6%. So the more accurate description is: employment is cooling, but not collapsing—“low hiring, low layoffs,” rather than widespread unemployment.
II. Why did “bad news” in the jobs data become a “good market”
U.S. stocks are a “machine for discounting the future”: stock price ≈ future cash flows ÷ discount rate.
The most important component of the discount rate is the risk-free rate, anchored by Treasury yields.
The Federal Reserve is currently in a rate-hike cycle and just raised the benchmark rate to 3.75%–4.00% in September, the first hike in three years.
The market had originally worried: If employment and inflation remained strong, would there be another hike in October? After this weak nonfarm report, that concern was significantly reduced.
CME FedWatch showed that the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in October fell from 22% before the data to 13.8% afterward—after briefly approaching 80% a week earlier.
The transmission chain has just four steps: weaker employment → cooler rate-hike expectations → lower Treasury yields → higher growth-stock valuations.
That is also why the Nasdaq outperformed the Dow that day: interest-rate-sensitive technology growth stocks account for a larger share of the Nasdaq, giving it the greatest valuation elasticity; the Dow has greater weight in financials, energy, and industrials, making it more closely tied to the real economy.
But this chain has one prerequisite: it works only when “inflation is not the main problem.” Once inflation picks up, the Fed still has to hike, yields rebound, and the chain breaks.
The market had already previewed this once intraday: at 10:59 a.m. Eastern Time, the 2-year Treasury yield reversed from a 6-basis-point decline to a 2.52-basis-point gain, while the 10-year yield also turned higher.
III. When looking at nonfarm payrolls, do not rush to a conclusion
The market did not interpret it as an “economic collapse” for three reasons:
Seasonal adjustments may be distorting the data.
U.S. Labor Day fell on September 1 this year, placing the end of seasonal hiring near the edge of the statistical window. Some economists have pointed out that the seasonal-adjustment model may have overstated August and understated September.
Initial jobless claims remain near historic lows.
During the statistical period, weekly initial unemployment-benefit claims hovered near a 57-year low, while corporate layoff plans also declined—not mass layoffs, just slower hiring.
The fundamentals remain resilient.
This week, the U.S. Department of Commerce revised first- and second-quarter GDP growth up to 2.2% and 2.5%, respectively, while the Atlanta Fed forecasts third-quarter growth could reach 3.7%.
So the correct interpretation is: the labor market is moving from “overheated” to “moderate,” but has not yet slipped into “recession.”
IV. The key is not employment, but inflation
The Federal Reserve has two main goals: price stability and maximum employment. The prevailing view is that the threat from inflation is greater than that from employment. Core inflation remains around 3% annualized, clearly above the 2% target.
The main risks come from three directions:
Energy prices.
Brent crude has climbed above $102 per barrel, while diesel has reached a record high, raising transportation and manufacturing costs before passing through to the services sector.
Geopolitical conflict.
Tensions in the Middle East pose risks to energy supplies and supply chains, with spillover effects potentially not fully materializing until late 2026 or 2027.
Tariff policy.
Corporate concerns over trade disputes are rising, which could restrain capacity expansion and hiring while pushing up the prices of imported goods.
Based on interest-rate market pricing, a hold in October is already highly priced in, but the probability of a rate hike in December remains 63.1%. In other words, the market is not celebrating “the end of the rate-hike cycle and imminent rate cuts,” but rather that “there is room to catch a breath in October.”
V. What this means for U.S. stocks in the short and medium term
There are roughly three possible paths over the next month or two, depending on which condition appears first.
First, inflation continues to cool.
If October CPI falls, oil prices remain contained, and wage growth stays around 3%, both October and December could see no change in rates.
Second, oil prices push inflation back up.
If energy prices drive core inflation higher again, the Fed may be forced to hike once more in December, sending Treasury yields higher again.
Third, employment genuinely deteriorates.
If subsequent nonfarm payrolls continue to weaken and the unemployment rate keeps rising, the rate-hike cycle could end early, but the market would switch to “recession trading.”
The key is that the branching point is not the employment data, but CPI and oil prices: nonfarm payrolls determine “whether the Fed can wait,” while inflation determines “whether the Fed dares to stop.”
VI. A simpler framework for judgment
Remember one sentence: We watch nonfarm payrolls to watch the Fed, watch the Fed to watch interest rates, and watch interest rates to watch valuations.
It ultimately comes down to three combinations: weak nonfarm payrolls + falling inflation → improving rate environmentweak nonfarm payrolls + rising oil prices → rate pressure remainsmuch weaker nonfarm payrolls + high inflation → first trade “no hike,” then trade “economic downturn”It shifts attention from “whether nonfarm payrolls are good or bad” to “what combination of nonfarm payrolls and inflation we are seeing.” The latter is what matters.
VII. If you care about U.S. stocks, watch these four things over the next two months
September CPI (mid-October): Core inflation remains near 3%, determining whether there will be a rate hike in December.
The Fed’s October 27–28 meeting: A hold is already priced in; the focus is the statement’s wording on December.
October nonfarm payrolls (early November): Confirm whether September reflected seasonal-adjustment distortion or a deteriorating trend.
Oil prices and diesel: Brent at $102 and diesel at a record high; whether they can be contained is key.
Returning to the opening point. September nonfarm payrolls rising by only 29,000 was a report that “shocked to the downside,” not one showing a “collapse.” The rise in U.S. stocks that day reflected the market unwinding bets on an October rate hike, rather than repricing the economic outlook. The real deciding factor is not employment, but inflation. Drawing a directional conclusion from just one nonfarm payrolls report makes it easy to be proven wrong by the next CPI reading.

#OneGate见证计划 Will Bitcoin Surge Sharply in October?
Will Bitcoin rise sharply in October? Historical data, signals from major industry figures, on-chain indicators, and sentiment indices all point in one direction, but risks always remain. Many people have been asking the same question recently: Is Bitcoin about to see a major move? October has historically performed well, CZ posted “Soon” in the middle of the night, with an image of awakening beneath a green night sky, and figures such as Bao Er Ye have publicly expressed bullish views, while various indicators have also been repeatedly discussed. Capital appears to be positioning itself, and market sentiment is beginning to heat up. Is this really the starting point of a bull market? Or is it another trap designed to get most people to buy at the top? If a sharp rise really comes, how much room is there? If it does not come, or if a major shakeout arrives at year-end after it does, how should ordinary people view it? Without clear answers to these questions, it is easy to be led by emotion. Below, the situation is broken down layer by layer based on facts and logic, with more specific data and indicators added to make the analysis more solid.
October historical performance: Strong seasonality is supported by data.
Since 2013, Bitcoin has closed higher in October 10 out of 13 times, with an average gain of roughly 18% to 19% and a median gain of around 12% to 14%. The best performance came in 2013, when it rose more than 50%; the worst was in 2014, when it fell approximately 13%.
There have also been plenty of examples in recent years: Bitcoin rose around 28% in October 2023 and more than 10% in 2024. If September rises first, the probability that October will continue strengthening is often higher.
Bitcoin has already recorded a gain of approximately 6% in September 2026, making it one of the better September performances in history. These figures are not guarantees; they merely reflect frequencies observed in the past. Once market participants notice this seasonal pattern, they may position themselves early, thereby amplifying short-term upward momentum. However, the sample covers only a little more than a decade, and any year can break the pattern. October 2025, for example, saw a modest decline. Seasonality is only a reference and cannot serve as the sole basis for a decision.
Signals from major figures and market interpretation: Ambiguous but highly influential
CZ posted “Soon...” on September 29, along with a green-toned selfie. The market quickly interpreted this as a hint about the October market or the BNB ecosystem. An analyst subsequently publicly expressed agreement and asked how much crypto everyone held.
Figures such as Bao Er Ye, who have spoken out in the industry for years, have also repeatedly expressed their expectations for a bull market. These voices attract attention and drive short-term capital inflows. But it is important to understand that statements from major figures are often ambiguous and can be interpreted in any way after the fact. Similar calls to buy have been common throughout history; sometimes they were correct, while at other times they merely fueled sentiment.
Signs of capital positioning can be observed through changes in institutional holdings, ETF inflows and outflows, and large on-chain transfers, but these data change every day and cannot be treated as a definitive trigger for an upward move.
Sentiment index and capital flows: Currently in the greed zone
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is currently between 70 and 74, clearly within the “Greed” zone. The index combines multiple dimensions, including volatility, market momentum, social media activity, Bitcoin dominance, and search trends. Its average over the past 7 days is approximately 72, while the average over the past 30 days is around 67 to 71.
Historical experience shows that when the index enters the 55-74 greed zone, prices are usually in an uptrend; once it exceeds 75 and enters extreme greed, the risk of a short-term pullback rises significantly.
In terms of capital flows, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a clear return of inflows in late September. On September 21, net inflows approached $1 billion in a single day, reaching a one-year high. Cumulative net inflows over several days in late September exceeded $2.4 billion, pushing annual ETF net inflows back into positive territory. The continued entry of institutional capital often provides stronger support for the medium-term trend than retail sentiment.
On-chain data: Valuation remains within a reasonable range
The MVRV ratio, or the ratio of market value to realized value, is currently around 1.58 to 1.59. This means the market as a whole still has approximately 58% in unrealized profits, but remains far from the overheated expansion zone above 2.0 and even farther from the historical top zone above 3.5. The MVRV Z-Score is also at a relatively low level, indicating that valuation has not yet deviated significantly from its long-term average.
Other related indicators are sending similar signals: coins around the cost basis of long-term holders remain relatively concentrated, while SOPR, or the Spent Output Profit Ratio, is slightly above 1, indicating that selling overall remains profitable but has not yet developed into large-scale profit-taking.
Taken together, these data point to one conclusion: the current market is closer to the recovery and early expansion phase in the middle of the cycle than to a euphoric top.
Four-year cycle position and potential upside
Bitcoin broadly follows a four-year halving cycle. After the halving, supply decreases, and if demand keeps pace, prices often enter an accelerated growth phase over the following one to one and a half years.
In past bull markets, October through December was often the window when sentiment progressed from ignition to climax. By the time most people begin entering the market, the media starts reporting extensively, and new highs are repeatedly broken, the market is often already in its middle-to-late stages.
After that, extreme euphoria emerges, and the probability of a major pullback at year-end or the beginning of the following year increases.
This is not a precise forecast, but a recurring pattern from the past several cycles.
The current price is approximately $84,000 to $85,000, still clearly below the historical high. Based on the historical average October gain, the short-term reference upside is roughly 15% to 20%. In a complete bull market cycle, the gain from the start to the top has reached several multiples, but this depends on the starting point, macro liquidity, institutional acceptance, and other conditions. The actual result depends on whether supply and demand remain imbalanced, whether the macro interest-rate environment supports risk assets, and whether the market becomes overheated. No one can provide an accurate figure in advance.
The risks must be stated separately and clearly
Seasonal patterns can be broken. Calls from major figures may be traps, or at least may not be fulfilled immediately. When the majority of people rush in, liquidity may already have gathered at the top, followed by a major shakeout. Excessive leverage can amplify losses. Regulatory policies, macroeconomic shocks, and black swan events can interrupt the trend at any time. Bitcoin is extremely volatile and can fall 20% or more in the short term, while historical bear-market drawdowns have been even greater. Although the Fear & Greed Index is currently in the greed zone, it has not yet entered extreme territory, which instead reduces the probability of an immediate top. Once the index rapidly climbs above 80 while MVRV breaks above 2.5 or higher, vigilance is warranted. No bullish analysis can replace an individual's assessment of their own risk tolerance.
Summary
Strong historical October performance, signals from major figures, ETF capital inflows, reasonable on-chain valuation, and a sentiment index in the greed zone but not at an extreme level together form the current bullish rationale, and all are supported by specific data. But they are probabilities, not certainties. The market can continue rising as most people enter, or it can quickly reverse during a period of euphoria. Viewing this information objectively is more useful than blindly following the crowd or ignoring it entirely. Prices are ultimately determined by buyers and sellers, and any one-sided view is merely a reference. $BTC

#美国30年期国债收益率2002年以来新高 30 U.S. Treasury yields break 5.6% to hit a 22-year high: It’s not runaway inflation, but long-term bonds with no buyers being repriced
30-year U.S. Treasury yields broke 5.6% to hit a 22-year high, even as expectations for near-term rate hikes cooled amid dovish signals from the Federal Reserve—the long end is actually pricing in the return of the term premium.
On September 29, 2026, 30-year U.S. Treasury yields broke 5.6% intraday, the highest since June 2002. That same day, New York Fed President Williams said, “The Fed may only need to raise rates once more this year and is in no rush to act,” prompting the market to lower the probability of an October hike from 70% to 50%.
Expectations for near-term rate hikes are cooling, while long-term yields are hitting new highs. This cannot be explained by “rising rate-hike expectations”—rate-hike pricing is concentrated in the 2-year yield, at 4.92%, which has barely moved. The 30-year yield breaking 5.6% is pricing in something else.
The real driver: the return of the term premium. Long-term yields have two components: rate-hike expectations (transmitted through the short end) and the term premium (the risk compensation for holding long-term bonds). The September 16 FOMC meeting raised rates by 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, while the preliminary September composite PMI came in at 58.4, a 62-month high, but the 2-year breakeven inflation rate barely moved—this rally is driven by real yields, not inflation expectations.
San Francisco Fed data shows the 10-year term premium at 1.35%, up 23bp over the past year. The term premium compensates investors for the additional risk of holding long-term bonds. It widens for only two reasons: either inflation is expected to be more persistent, or supply and demand are expected to become more imbalanced. The 2-year breakeven rate has barely moved, ruling out the former. That leaves a supply-demand imbalance.
Supply is inelastic, while demand is ebbing
On the supply side, the CBO puts the fiscal 2026 deficit at $1.9 trillion, or 5.8% of GDP. Total U.S. debt exceeds $40 trillion. The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee continues to increase long-duration borrowing, so the supply of long-term bonds is only rising.
Three forces on the demand side are retreating. Japan sold a net $71.4 billion of U.S. Treasuries in the first half of the year. China’s holdings stood at $633.4 billion, the lowest since September 2008, after cumulative reductions of approximately $98 billion over the past year. Official foreign institutions have reduced their holdings by $82 billion since the escalation of the Middle East conflict, the lowest level since 2012. Foreign investors sold $240 billion in a single month in March 2026, setting a new historical record.
The microstructure of the September auctions put this clearly on display. Indirect bids for the 2-year fell from 66% in August to 57.8%, 5-year indirect bids plunged from above 65% to 54.3%, 7-year bids came in at 57.2%, and primary dealers were forced to take down 14.74% of the 30-year issue, the highest in nearly a year. The 5-year auction also produced a 3.1bp tail, the second-largest on record for that maturity.
Overseas buyers are not taking the bonds, while primary dealers are providing the backstop—this is a textbook signal of “absorption fatigue.”
Two common misconceptions
Misconception one: “A rise in the long end means much larger rate hikes are still coming.” Wrong. After Williams’ dovish remarks on September 29, the probability of an October hike fell from 70% to 50%, while the December probability fell from 95% to 91.5%. Near-term rate-hike expectations are cooling, yet the long end is still hitting new highs—the long end is pricing in a repricing of the term premium amid a supply-demand imbalance, while the rate path is not the main factor.
Misconception two: “A new high in yields means inflation is out of control.” Wrong. The 2-year breakeven inflation rate has barely moved this week and remains below its high earlier this year. This rally is driven by real yields, reflecting growth and fiscal factors rather than inflation expectations.
How institutions see it
Opinions vary widely.
Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s global head of fixed income, is bullish, saying that 10-year yields have often produced considerable returns over the following 12 months after breaking 5%, and that he has begun adding to long-duration positions in small batches.
Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio is bearish, warning of systemic risks from America’s massive debt. Annual debt interest expenses exceed $1 trillion, and he recommends avoiding all interest-rate-sensitive assets.
Karen Ward of J.P. Morgan Asset Management forecasts that 10-year yields are unlikely to rise significantly above 5%. ING says yields could rise to 6% before long. In a survey of 173 market experts, just over half expect 30-year yields to exceed 6% this year.
The core condition underpinning this thesis is that the term premium is returning, driven by a supply-demand imbalance.
The view would need to be revised if either of the following occurs: the term premium falls below 1.2%, or auction tails continue to narrow and indirect bids return to above 65% while yields remain above 5.5%—that would indicate the supply-demand imbalance is easing but yields have not fallen, requiring a search for a new main driver, possibly persistent inflation or a repricing of credit risk.
Two things to watch next month: the August TIC data released on October 16, showing the latest changes in foreign buyers’ holdings; and September nonfarm payrolls and August PCE, which could alter the rate path and thereby affect the logic behind the divergence between the short and long ends.

#OneGate见证计划 Will the Fed change its mind because of the nonfarm payrolls report?
For financial markets, the biggest suspense on Friday ultimately still centers on the Federal Reserve.
U.S. inflation data has cooled somewhat recently, and the market has significantly lowered expectations for another rate hike in October, but U.S. Treasury yields remain near highs not seen in more than 20 years. Meanwhile, renewed price pressures in U.S. manufacturing and persistently high oil prices mean that inflation risks have not completely disappeared.
Fed officials generally believe that the U.S. labor market remains stable, so an employment report close to expectations may not be enough to completely alter the policy path.
MarketWatch pointed out that if nonfarm payrolls are very strong, the Fed may have more confidence to raise rates further if necessary; conversely, if the data is only moderately weak, policymakers may not overreact given that the layoff rate remains low and the unemployment rate remains at a low level.
What could truly shake the market again may be a result that deviates sharply from expectations. If nonfarm payrolls once again exceed 100k or are significantly higher, while wages remain strong, Treasury yields and the dollar may regain upward momentum; if job growth is far below 84k and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rises, the market may further reduce expectations for Fed rate hikes and push bond yields lower.
With 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields already at highs not seen in more than 20 years, any employment data significantly stronger than expected could amplify volatility in the bond market.
Analysts have recently warned that this employment report could become an important catalyst for the next move in long-term U.S. Treasury yields.
Therefore, the biggest focus of Friday's nonfarm payrolls report is not whether the U.S. is still creating jobs, but a more critical question: Is the "low hiring, low layoffs" stalemate that has persisted for nearly two years gradually improving, or is it shifting toward genuine weakness in employment?#每周来晒

#每周来晒 October Rate Hike Expectations Have Cooled—Can Payrolls Deliver Another Blow?
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September nonfarm payrolls report at 20:30 Beijing time on Friday (October 2). Wall Street expects 84k jobs to have been added in September, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%. The data will address the market’s persistent questions about the condition of the U.S. labor market.
Market consensus: 84k jobs added, unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%
Wall Street expects September nonfarm payrolls to show 84k new jobs, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%. Although overall job growth has slowed from the trend before 2025, the unemployment rate—the indicator the Federal Reserve watches more closely—remains near a level indicating full employment.
August payrolls unexpectedly grew by 162k, while data for previous months were revised upward. Fed officials may seek confirmation of labor-market strength from this report, while shifting the balance of their attention toward the more difficult inflation problem.
Fed signals: Labor market has stabilized, no need to rush another rate hike Fed Vice Chair Jefferson said in remarks Thursday that broad labor-market data indicated conditions had stabilized.
He noted that although job creation had been somewhat volatile, wage growth had spread across many industries in recent months, which was encouraging. Layoffs remained low, and net job openings had increased.
Even with a resilient employment picture, the Fed’s comments this week have changed market expectations for a late-October rate hike. New York Fed President Williams said earlier this week that policymakers had “no need to rush” when weighing whether to act again after raising rates by 25 basis points in September.
He said that, regarding the Fed’s dual mandate of full employment and stable prices, employment data showed that the labor market remained resilient and had even strengthened marginally.
The market subsequently sharply reduced the probability of a rate hike at the October 27–28 meeting, seeing a December move as much more likely.
Slow and steady: Average monthly wage growth of 80k in 2026, wage growth slows
At the core of the argument that the Fed needs to focus on inflation but need not rush to hike rates again is a stable but unspectacular labor-market picture. Average monthly wage growth in 2026 was 80k per month, but volatility was substantial, ranging from a decline of 156k in February to an increase of 214k the following month, with gains and losses in between.
Wage growth has also slowed, with average hourly earnings expected to rise 3.1% year over year in September, down from around 4% at the start of the year. Fed officials have emphasized that wages are not a major source of inflation, and the lack of evidence of a wage-price spiral is an important distinction when calibrating policy.
Concerns remain: Worker confidence hits a record low, but layoffs remain low
Despite this, concerns about labor-market conditions persist. The latest Glassdoor survey showed that worker confidence fell to a record low in September, marking the third time this year that this has happened. Daniel Zhao, the job-search website’s chief economist, said concerns stemmed from “heightened anxiety over job security, economic uncertainty and inflation.” Workers also cited fears about artificial intelligence.
However, layoffs remained low. The latest data showed that initial jobless claims fell to 197k last week. Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported Thursday that layoffs in September fell 18% from August and 20% from the same period last year.
Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade, said job openings were declining and hiring was slowly weakening, and that based on the data and various feedback, it was difficult for people to find new jobs. The unemployment rate had changed little and remained historically quite low.
He believed that “stable” was a very appropriate way to describe the current labor market.
Summary
The key takeaways from the September nonfarm payrolls report are that the market consensus calls for 84k new jobs and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.1%, but the data itself may not alter the Fed’s overall policy stance.
Fed officials have repeatedly emphasized recently that the labor market has stabilized and there is no need to rush another rate hike. Market expectations for an October hike have fallen sharply, with investors now leaning more toward action in December.
Average monthly wage growth in 2026 was 80k, while wage growth slowed to 3.1%, with no evidence of a wage-price spiral. But worker confidence fell to a record low, and anxiety over job security and artificial intelligence increased, creating potential concerns.
Overall, the report is more likely to confirm a “stable but unspectacular” labor-market picture than provide a decisive signal that would change the policy direction.#非农就业数据

#非农就业数据 #每周来晒 Nonfarm payrolls came in shockingly low! Just 29k, far below expectations—is a Fed rate hike in October completely off the table?
Tonight’s nonfarm payrolls report delivered a direct blow to the market. Interestingly, just before the data was released, the market still viewed it as a “lackluster report” and had priced its impact at a recent low. Yet this very report that nobody cared about produced the biggest surprise in this year’s labor market.
Let’s start with the key figures: U.S. seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29k in September. What does that mean? The market expected 90k, while the previous figure was 162k—less than one-third of expectations and nearly 80% lower than the previous month.
The unemployment rate also failed to hold steady, rising from the previous and expected 4.1% to 4.2%, a new high for the period. People were still discussing how resilient employment was, but overnight, much of that optimism vanished.
Don’t assume this is merely a one-month fluctuation; the signal behind it is actually quite significant.
Looking back, payrolls rose by 21k in July, 162k in August, and 29k in September. The three-month average comes to just over 70k, nowhere near last year’s monthly average of more than 200,000.
The cooling in employment is not due to any single sector dragging things down—it is broad-based weakness: manufacturing has shown no improvement, service-sector hiring has slowed sharply, and leisure and hospitality, education, and healthcare, which had previously carried the load, have also lost momentum. White-collar positions in information and finance continue to contract.
Put simply, after being squeezed by high interest rates for so long, companies have finally reached their limit and started cutting hiring. The labor market has officially shifted from “extremely tight” to loosening. The most direct impact of this report is that it effectively seals the door on a Fed rate hike in October.
Just one week ago, the market was still pricing in a more-than-60% probability of a rate hike in October. But over the past two days, Jefferson and Williams successively struck a dovish tone, saying they should wait and see and need not rush. At the time, many people thought it was just lip service.
Now that the nonfarm payrolls data is out, it has given them a solid reason: with employment this weak, there is no need to rush into another hike. Barring surprises, the October policy meeting will most likely leave rates unchanged, and even hawkish statements will soften considerably. Policy will officially shift from a “rate-hike cycle” to an “observation period.”
The market reacted quickly after the data was released. Let’s go through the major assets one by one.
First, stocks: in the short term, they will certainly breathe a sigh of relief. With rate-hike expectations receding, U.S. Treasury yields will likely fall, easing pressure on high-valuation technology and growth stocks.
But don’t celebrate too soon. Weak employment is essentially a weak economy, and corporate earnings will likely come under pressure later. So this is more likely to be a rebound and recovery, not the start of a bull market; volatility and grinding consolidation will probably continue.
Next is gold. The logic is simple: rate-hike expectations have faded, real rates are heading lower, and safe-haven sentiment over a weakening economy provides additional support. But don’t chase it too aggressively. Inflation remains sticky, and the Fed cannot immediately pivot to rate cuts. Gold is more likely to move from its previous pressured range into choppy trading at a higher level.
Finally, oil and commodities will see greater divergence. Weak employment means expectations for aggregate demand will be revised downward, which is bearish for oil prices. But tensions in the Middle East have not eased, and geopolitical premiums continue to provide support. So crude oil will most likely remain volatile at high levels—any decline may be limited, while its upside also lacks momentum.
Industrial commodities will be somewhat weaker, with pressure on the demand side gradually becoming apparent.
Overall, this nonfarm payrolls report is a turning point. The market had previously been debating whether employment was truly resilient and whether more rate hikes were needed. Now the answer is clear: the cooling in employment is a trend, not an accident; an October rate hike is essentially off the table, and the next question is whether inflation can fall along with it.

#美国9月非农新增2.9万 Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29k, just one-third of expectations (consensus: 84,000-90k), while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% (a 3-month high). July was also revised down to negative growth of -10k ——the labor market is not “cooling,” but “clearly weakening.”
The market’s reaction: The probability of a rate hike in October fell to just 28% (still 70% a week ago), 2- to 7-year U.S. Treasury yields fell more than 10bp that day, U.S. stock index futures surged (Nasdaq futures +1.06%), and BTC climbed to $87,250. The “bad news fully priced in” rally has materialized, confirming Uptober.

1️⃣ How have rate expectations changed? ——October is out, but the “rate hike” is not dead
Latest CME data: 71.8% expect rates to remain unchanged in October, while the rate-hike probability has fallen to just 28.2%; however, the combined probability of a December rate hike remains above 80% (25bp at 60.4% + 50bp at 20.8%)
​The essence is “a delayed rate hike,” not “the end of rate hikes” ——the market is no longer fully pricing in continued rate hikes this year, but December is still hanging over it
​Don’t celebrate too soon: Wage growth fell to 3.0%, but elevated oil prices and sticky core inflation remain ——weak employment ≠ no inflation worries; the Fed’s “tightening spell” has not been lifted

2️⃣ How is crypto reacting? ——The frontrun has materialized, but $87K is a hurdle
BTC surged directly from $86K toward $87,250 before meeting resistance, and is now hovering around $86-87K ——the data-driven bullish catalyst was “already known,” and part of the move happened in advance
​$85K has turned from resistance into support, while $87-88K is the previous-high resistance zone ——a breakout means looking toward $90K; failure to break through means sideways consolidation here
​Remember last month’s mirror image: August nonfarm payrolls came in at 162k (3 times expectations) → BTC fell below $80K; this month’s 29k (one-third of expectations) → BTC climbed above $86K ——the same formula, applied in reverse

3️⃣ My trading approach (for reference):
BTC: A pullback to $85-86K is an entry point for longs; if it holds above $87.25 with a volume-backed breakout, add to the position and target $90K; a break below $84.5K would indicate frontrunning funds are exiting, so reduce first
​DOGE: The trigger at $0.10 has already been pulled halfway ——if BTC holds above $87K and DOGE breaks above $0.0966 with volume, test $0.10; hold long positions as long as $0.092-0.093 holds
​GT: Countercyclical + platform capital inflows ——add to the position on a pullback to $10.5-11, and don’t chase highs
​U.S. stocks (MU/AMD/SNDK): Weak nonfarm payrolls = lower rate expectations = relief for high-valuation AI stocks ——Nasdaq futures have already signaled this with a +1% move tonight, and AI hardware will likely get another lease on life next week

Nonfarm payrolls came in at one-third of expectations, kicking October rate hikes out of the script ——risk assets have entered a “breathing window,” but the December knife is still hanging overhead. Go long early during the window, but keep position sizes under control: if $87K cannot be breached, wait for a pullback; don’t chase highs on the day the bullish catalyst materializes.

Uptober is off to a good start—did your position catch this move? Let’s discuss in the comments 👇

#美国30年期国债收益率2002年以来新高 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surges to 5.60%, highest since 2002: when this “anchor of asset pricing” shakes, global wealth must adjust along with it
If global financial markets were to choose the “most expensive price tag,” many would point to long-term U.S. Treasury yields—they are known as the “anchor of global asset pricing” because they largely determine the “risk-free floor” for everything from mortgages and corporate bonds to all risk assets.
The latest data caused this anchor to shake: On September 29, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly rose to 5.595%, then climbed further to 5.60% late in the session, reaching its highest level since 2002. Behind this is the continued global tightening cycle.
As energy prices rise and inflationary pressures resurface, markets are continually raising their expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path.
More importantly, the yield curve is flattening at an accelerating pace: The spread between 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasuries, once nearly 75 basis points, has now narrowed to only about 21 basis points.
Historically, an inverted yield curve has been called a “recession signal light”—the yield curve inverted before all of the past nine U.S. recessions.
However, this signal is not always reliable. The sustained inversion from 2022 to 2024 did not bring about a corresponding recession and was viewed by the market as a “false alarm.”
Professionals are more inclined to treat it as an early warning rather than confirmation: What really needs watching are the financial conditions behind the curve—persistently high interest rates will continue to raise corporate financing costs and amplify volatility in globally overvalued assets.
Meanwhile, the OECD’s latest outlook raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2026 to 2.9%, and the resilience of the world economy amid headwinds remains impossible to underestimate$NAS100 ‌

#每周来晒 #​MU PCE cools, Micron earnings beat expectations—how should we trade US stocks going forward?
Last night's US stock market gave a classic signal: the macro backdrop was not bad, AI was strong, yet the indexes did not celebrate.
The Dow fell, the S&P was weak, and the Nasdaq edged higher, showing that the market is no longer simply trading “good news,” but weighing two things: inflation has fallen, but the economy remains strong; AI is hot, but opportunities are becoming more concentrated.
August PCE rose 3.4% YoY, while core PCE rose 3.0% YoY and 0.2% MoM, all below expectations, and short-end rates fell alongside rate-hike expectations. But consumer spending rose 0.9% MoM, economic resilience remains, and long-end rates remain under pressure.
What the market is really worried about is this: if the economy stays strong, when will the Fed have room to pivot? Funds are therefore clustering around certainty—AI computing power, cloud, data centers, semiconductors, and a handful of platform companies. This is structural crowding, not a broad-based rally.
I. Micron wins on pricing, not volume
Micron's earnings report last night brought the story down to orders.
Fourth-quarter revenue was $54.23 billion, up 379% YoY, with full-year revenue at $133.188 billion; the midpoint of next-quarter revenue guidance was $61.5 billion, while adjusted EPS guidance was $38.15, both above expectations.
The source of profits is even more important: DRAM revenue was $39.8 billion, accounting for 73% of total revenue, with prices surging QoQ while shipments rose only by the mid-single digits—this is price increases, not volume growth.
Core data center revenue was $18 billion, up 56% QoQ, with a 90% gross margin. Most of HBM capacity for 2027 has already been locked in, while remaining performance obligations under long-term agreements are approximately $150 billion.
The AI trade is not about a single GPU, but about who has pricing power across the entire computing-power chain. Yet Micron did not surge after hours, pulling back after an initial jump and ultimately gaining less than 1%.
The reason is simple: it has already more than tripled this year, so good news had been priced in early; gross-margin guidance of 86.25% was slightly below expectations, and management also said price increases would moderate. The upcycle remains intact, but the market has already begun asking: how long can this strong cycle last?
II. Platforms are competing for distribution; space remains an option
Google's performance last night looked like the “new king,” representing another track. Search, YouTube, and Android are the entry points, while Cloud and its in-house TPU form a closed loop.
In the second half of the model race, whoever can bring costs down and embed models into products users open every day will have thicker cash flow. Regulation remains a discount on valuation.
Space, by contrast, is the comparison group. Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile have high elasticity, but cash flow is still far off. With rates above 5%, the longer the duration, the greater the pain.
The advice for everyone is: Micron is about orders, while space is an option; they should not be treated as the same position.
III. Friday's nonfarm payrolls are the real pricing switch
ADP showed that private-sector employment increased by 90,000 in September, above expectations of approximately 70,000, while hourly earnings were still up 3.2% YoY. If Friday's nonfarm payrolls and hourly earnings are both strong, long-end rates will have further room to rise, and high-valuation growth stocks will remain under pressure; if employment cools moderately, the market will resume trading the soft-landing narrative. Headcount determines the narrative, while hourly earnings determine whether the Fed dares to pause.
In terms of execution, watch nonfarm payrolls first, then act.
If the data are strong, do not chase the indexes; if the data cool, add to computing-power chains with pricing power. Storage and data centers are preferable to space themes. Micron has validated demand and remains reasonably valued, but be cautious about chasing highs.
Finally, wishing everyone successful trading and a happy National Day holiday.🎉$MU

#核心PCE与GDP终值 U.S. inflation cools, rate expectations shift, and the crypto market receives a positive signal
Recent U.S. inflation data has shown signs of easing, reducing market concerns over further Federal Reserve rate hikes and raising expectations for monetary easing, which could support risk assets such as Bitcoin.
According to the latest August PCE data, the U.S. headline PCE price index rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, while core PCE rose 0.2% month-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year. The personal consumption expenditures price data released this time came in below broad market expectations.
PCE is a key inflation indicator closely watched by the Federal Reserve. The relatively moderate data directly lowered market expectations for another rate hike by the Fed in October.
In financial market logic, a high interest rate environment will continue to suppress risk asset valuations. Once rate hike expectations cool, funds will be more willing to flow into highly elastic asset sectors, benefiting crypto assets as well.
Brendan Ma, head of investment strategy at the Arbitrum Foundation, said that core PCE rising 0.2% month-on-month was a positive signal for the Federal Reserve. If September CPI data continues to show this trend of slowing inflation, pressure on the Fed to raise rates in October will decline further.
For the crypto market, macro interest rates have always been a key variable driving the broader market. The previous market downturn was largely caused by the Federal Reserve's continued rate hikes, which tightened market liquidity and led funds to withdraw from high-risk assets.
If inflation continues to fall, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shifts from tightening to waiting, or even begins a rate-cutting cycle in the future, improved market liquidity conditions will generally make it easier for crypto assets such as Bitcoin to enter a sustained trend.
However, this should also be viewed objectively. A single month's inflation data can only represent a short-term change, and inflation could rebound. If prices rise again, the Federal Reserve's policy stance could shift once more.
The market cannot conclude that the trend has reversed based on a single data release. A series of key economic indicators, including CPI and nonfarm payrolls, will need to be tracked continuously.
Overall, the current macro environment is showing signs of marginal improvement, providing a sentiment boost to the crypto market, but the market remains uncertain. Confirming a turning point in the macro cycle will require validation from more consecutive data releases. Investors should view short-term positive news rationally and remain alert to risks arising from market volatility.