ShizukaKazu

#OneGate见证计划 Will Bitcoin Surge Sharply in October?
Will Bitcoin rise sharply in October? Historical data, signals from major industry figures, on-chain indicators, and sentiment indices all point in one direction, but risks always remain. Many people have been asking the same question recently: Is Bitcoin about to see a major move? October has historically performed well, CZ posted “Soon” in the middle of the night, with an image of awakening beneath a green night sky, and figures such as Bao Er Ye have publicly expressed bullish views, while various indicators have also been repeatedly discussed. Capital appears to be positioning itself, and market sentiment is beginning to heat up. Is this really the starting point of a bull market? Or is it another trap designed to get most people to buy at the top? If a sharp rise really comes, how much room is there? If it does not come, or if a major shakeout arrives at year-end after it does, how should ordinary people view it? Without clear answers to these questions, it is easy to be led by emotion. Below, the situation is broken down layer by layer based on facts and logic, with more specific data and indicators added to make the analysis more solid.
October historical performance: Strong seasonality is supported by data.
Since 2013, Bitcoin has closed higher in October 10 out of 13 times, with an average gain of roughly 18% to 19% and a median gain of around 12% to 14%. The best performance came in 2013, when it rose more than 50%; the worst was in 2014, when it fell approximately 13%.
There have also been plenty of examples in recent years: Bitcoin rose around 28% in October 2023 and more than 10% in 2024. If September rises first, the probability that October will continue strengthening is often higher.
Bitcoin has already recorded a gain of approximately 6% in September 2026, making it one of the better September performances in history. These figures are not guarantees; they merely reflect frequencies observed in the past. Once market participants notice this seasonal pattern, they may position themselves early, thereby amplifying short-term upward momentum. However, the sample covers only a little more than a decade, and any year can break the pattern. October 2025, for example, saw a modest decline. Seasonality is only a reference and cannot serve as the sole basis for a decision.
Signals from major figures and market interpretation: Ambiguous but highly influential
CZ posted “Soon...” on September 29, along with a green-toned selfie. The market quickly interpreted this as a hint about the October market or the BNB ecosystem. An analyst subsequently publicly expressed agreement and asked how much crypto everyone held.
Figures such as Bao Er Ye, who have spoken out in the industry for years, have also repeatedly expressed their expectations for a bull market. These voices attract attention and drive short-term capital inflows. But it is important to understand that statements from major figures are often ambiguous and can be interpreted in any way after the fact. Similar calls to buy have been common throughout history; sometimes they were correct, while at other times they merely fueled sentiment.
Signs of capital positioning can be observed through changes in institutional holdings, ETF inflows and outflows, and large on-chain transfers, but these data change every day and cannot be treated as a definitive trigger for an upward move.
Sentiment index and capital flows: Currently in the greed zone
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is currently between 70 and 74, clearly within the “Greed” zone. The index combines multiple dimensions, including volatility, market momentum, social media activity, Bitcoin dominance, and search trends. Its average over the past 7 days is approximately 72, while the average over the past 30 days is around 67 to 71.
Historical experience shows that when the index enters the 55-74 greed zone, prices are usually in an uptrend; once it exceeds 75 and enters extreme greed, the risk of a short-term pullback rises significantly.
In terms of capital flows, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a clear return of inflows in late September. On September 21, net inflows approached $1 billion in a single day, reaching a one-year high. Cumulative net inflows over several days in late September exceeded $2.4 billion, pushing annual ETF net inflows back into positive territory. The continued entry of institutional capital often provides stronger support for the medium-term trend than retail sentiment.
On-chain data: Valuation remains within a reasonable range
The MVRV ratio, or the ratio of market value to realized value, is currently around 1.58 to 1.59. This means the market as a whole still has approximately 58% in unrealized profits, but remains far from the overheated expansion zone above 2.0 and even farther from the historical top zone above 3.5. The MVRV Z-Score is also at a relatively low level, indicating that valuation has not yet deviated significantly from its long-term average.
Other related indicators are sending similar signals: coins around the cost basis of long-term holders remain relatively concentrated, while SOPR, or the Spent Output Profit Ratio, is slightly above 1, indicating that selling overall remains profitable but has not yet developed into large-scale profit-taking.
Taken together, these data point to one conclusion: the current market is closer to the recovery and early expansion phase in the middle of the cycle than to a euphoric top.
Four-year cycle position and potential upside
Bitcoin broadly follows a four-year halving cycle. After the halving, supply decreases, and if demand keeps pace, prices often enter an accelerated growth phase over the following one to one and a half years.
In past bull markets, October through December was often the window when sentiment progressed from ignition to climax. By the time most people begin entering the market, the media starts reporting extensively, and new highs are repeatedly broken, the market is often already in its middle-to-late stages.
After that, extreme euphoria emerges, and the probability of a major pullback at year-end or the beginning of the following year increases.
This is not a precise forecast, but a recurring pattern from the past several cycles.
The current price is approximately $84,000 to $85,000, still clearly below the historical high. Based on the historical average October gain, the short-term reference upside is roughly 15% to 20%. In a complete bull market cycle, the gain from the start to the top has reached several multiples, but this depends on the starting point, macro liquidity, institutional acceptance, and other conditions. The actual result depends on whether supply and demand remain imbalanced, whether the macro interest-rate environment supports risk assets, and whether the market becomes overheated. No one can provide an accurate figure in advance.
The risks must be stated separately and clearly
Seasonal patterns can be broken. Calls from major figures may be traps, or at least may not be fulfilled immediately. When the majority of people rush in, liquidity may already have gathered at the top, followed by a major shakeout. Excessive leverage can amplify losses. Regulatory policies, macroeconomic shocks, and black swan events can interrupt the trend at any time. Bitcoin is extremely volatile and can fall 20% or more in the short term, while historical bear-market drawdowns have been even greater. Although the Fear & Greed Index is currently in the greed zone, it has not yet entered extreme territory, which instead reduces the probability of an immediate top. Once the index rapidly climbs above 80 while MVRV breaks above 2.5 or higher, vigilance is warranted. No bullish analysis can replace an individual's assessment of their own risk tolerance.
Summary
Strong historical October performance, signals from major figures, ETF capital inflows, reasonable on-chain valuation, and a sentiment index in the greed zone but not at an extreme level together form the current bullish rationale, and all are supported by specific data. But they are probabilities, not certainties. The market can continue rising as most people enter, or it can quickly reverse during a period of euphoria. Viewing this information objectively is more useful than blindly following the crowd or ignoring it entirely. Prices are ultimately determined by buyers and sellers, and any one-sided view is merely a reference. $BTC

#美国30年期国债收益率2002年以来新高 30 U.S. Treasury yields break 5.6% to hit a 22-year high: It’s not runaway inflation, but long-term bonds with no buyers being repriced
30-year U.S. Treasury yields broke 5.6% to hit a 22-year high, even as expectations for near-term rate hikes cooled amid dovish signals from the Federal Reserve—the long end is actually pricing in the return of the term premium.
On September 29, 2026, 30-year U.S. Treasury yields broke 5.6% intraday, the highest since June 2002. That same day, New York Fed President Williams said, “The Fed may only need to raise rates once more this year and is in no rush to act,” prompting the market to lower the probability of an October hike from 70% to 50%.
Expectations for near-term rate hikes are cooling, while long-term yields are hitting new highs. This cannot be explained by “rising rate-hike expectations”—rate-hike pricing is concentrated in the 2-year yield, at 4.92%, which has barely moved. The 30-year yield breaking 5.6% is pricing in something else.
The real driver: the return of the term premium. Long-term yields have two components: rate-hike expectations (transmitted through the short end) and the term premium (the risk compensation for holding long-term bonds). The September 16 FOMC meeting raised rates by 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, while the preliminary September composite PMI came in at 58.4, a 62-month high, but the 2-year breakeven inflation rate barely moved—this rally is driven by real yields, not inflation expectations.
San Francisco Fed data shows the 10-year term premium at 1.35%, up 23bp over the past year. The term premium compensates investors for the additional risk of holding long-term bonds. It widens for only two reasons: either inflation is expected to be more persistent, or supply and demand are expected to become more imbalanced. The 2-year breakeven rate has barely moved, ruling out the former. That leaves a supply-demand imbalance.
Supply is inelastic, while demand is ebbing
On the supply side, the CBO puts the fiscal 2026 deficit at $1.9 trillion, or 5.8% of GDP. Total U.S. debt exceeds $40 trillion. The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee continues to increase long-duration borrowing, so the supply of long-term bonds is only rising.
Three forces on the demand side are retreating. Japan sold a net $71.4 billion of U.S. Treasuries in the first half of the year. China’s holdings stood at $633.4 billion, the lowest since September 2008, after cumulative reductions of approximately $98 billion over the past year. Official foreign institutions have reduced their holdings by $82 billion since the escalation of the Middle East conflict, the lowest level since 2012. Foreign investors sold $240 billion in a single month in March 2026, setting a new historical record.
The microstructure of the September auctions put this clearly on display. Indirect bids for the 2-year fell from 66% in August to 57.8%, 5-year indirect bids plunged from above 65% to 54.3%, 7-year bids came in at 57.2%, and primary dealers were forced to take down 14.74% of the 30-year issue, the highest in nearly a year. The 5-year auction also produced a 3.1bp tail, the second-largest on record for that maturity.
Overseas buyers are not taking the bonds, while primary dealers are providing the backstop—this is a textbook signal of “absorption fatigue.”
Two common misconceptions
Misconception one: “A rise in the long end means much larger rate hikes are still coming.” Wrong. After Williams’ dovish remarks on September 29, the probability of an October hike fell from 70% to 50%, while the December probability fell from 95% to 91.5%. Near-term rate-hike expectations are cooling, yet the long end is still hitting new highs—the long end is pricing in a repricing of the term premium amid a supply-demand imbalance, while the rate path is not the main factor.
Misconception two: “A new high in yields means inflation is out of control.” Wrong. The 2-year breakeven inflation rate has barely moved this week and remains below its high earlier this year. This rally is driven by real yields, reflecting growth and fiscal factors rather than inflation expectations.
How institutions see it
Opinions vary widely.
Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s global head of fixed income, is bullish, saying that 10-year yields have often produced considerable returns over the following 12 months after breaking 5%, and that he has begun adding to long-duration positions in small batches.
Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio is bearish, warning of systemic risks from America’s massive debt. Annual debt interest expenses exceed $1 trillion, and he recommends avoiding all interest-rate-sensitive assets.
Karen Ward of J.P. Morgan Asset Management forecasts that 10-year yields are unlikely to rise significantly above 5%. ING says yields could rise to 6% before long. In a survey of 173 market experts, just over half expect 30-year yields to exceed 6% this year.
The core condition underpinning this thesis is that the term premium is returning, driven by a supply-demand imbalance.
The view would need to be revised if either of the following occurs: the term premium falls below 1.2%, or auction tails continue to narrow and indirect bids return to above 65% while yields remain above 5.5%—that would indicate the supply-demand imbalance is easing but yields have not fallen, requiring a search for a new main driver, possibly persistent inflation or a repricing of credit risk.
Two things to watch next month: the August TIC data released on October 16, showing the latest changes in foreign buyers’ holdings; and September nonfarm payrolls and August PCE, which could alter the rate path and thereby affect the logic behind the divergence between the short and long ends.

#OneGate见证计划 Will the Fed change its mind because of the nonfarm payrolls report?
For financial markets, the biggest suspense on Friday ultimately still centers on the Federal Reserve.
U.S. inflation data has cooled somewhat recently, and the market has significantly lowered expectations for another rate hike in October, but U.S. Treasury yields remain near highs not seen in more than 20 years. Meanwhile, renewed price pressures in U.S. manufacturing and persistently high oil prices mean that inflation risks have not completely disappeared.
Fed officials generally believe that the U.S. labor market remains stable, so an employment report close to expectations may not be enough to completely alter the policy path.
MarketWatch pointed out that if nonfarm payrolls are very strong, the Fed may have more confidence to raise rates further if necessary; conversely, if the data is only moderately weak, policymakers may not overreact given that the layoff rate remains low and the unemployment rate remains at a low level.
What could truly shake the market again may be a result that deviates sharply from expectations. If nonfarm payrolls once again exceed 100k or are significantly higher, while wages remain strong, Treasury yields and the dollar may regain upward momentum; if job growth is far below 84k and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rises, the market may further reduce expectations for Fed rate hikes and push bond yields lower.
With 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields already at highs not seen in more than 20 years, any employment data significantly stronger than expected could amplify volatility in the bond market.
Analysts have recently warned that this employment report could become an important catalyst for the next move in long-term U.S. Treasury yields.
Therefore, the biggest focus of Friday's nonfarm payrolls report is not whether the U.S. is still creating jobs, but a more critical question: Is the "low hiring, low layoffs" stalemate that has persisted for nearly two years gradually improving, or is it shifting toward genuine weakness in employment?#每周来晒

#每周来晒 October Rate Hike Expectations Have Cooled—Can Payrolls Deliver Another Blow?
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September nonfarm payrolls report at 20:30 Beijing time on Friday (October 2). Wall Street expects 84k jobs to have been added in September, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%. The data will address the market’s persistent questions about the condition of the U.S. labor market.
Market consensus: 84k jobs added, unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%
Wall Street expects September nonfarm payrolls to show 84k new jobs, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%. Although overall job growth has slowed from the trend before 2025, the unemployment rate—the indicator the Federal Reserve watches more closely—remains near a level indicating full employment.
August payrolls unexpectedly grew by 162k, while data for previous months were revised upward. Fed officials may seek confirmation of labor-market strength from this report, while shifting the balance of their attention toward the more difficult inflation problem.
Fed signals: Labor market has stabilized, no need to rush another rate hike Fed Vice Chair Jefferson said in remarks Thursday that broad labor-market data indicated conditions had stabilized.
He noted that although job creation had been somewhat volatile, wage growth had spread across many industries in recent months, which was encouraging. Layoffs remained low, and net job openings had increased.
Even with a resilient employment picture, the Fed’s comments this week have changed market expectations for a late-October rate hike. New York Fed President Williams said earlier this week that policymakers had “no need to rush” when weighing whether to act again after raising rates by 25 basis points in September.
He said that, regarding the Fed’s dual mandate of full employment and stable prices, employment data showed that the labor market remained resilient and had even strengthened marginally.
The market subsequently sharply reduced the probability of a rate hike at the October 27–28 meeting, seeing a December move as much more likely.
Slow and steady: Average monthly wage growth of 80k in 2026, wage growth slows
At the core of the argument that the Fed needs to focus on inflation but need not rush to hike rates again is a stable but unspectacular labor-market picture. Average monthly wage growth in 2026 was 80k per month, but volatility was substantial, ranging from a decline of 156k in February to an increase of 214k the following month, with gains and losses in between.
Wage growth has also slowed, with average hourly earnings expected to rise 3.1% year over year in September, down from around 4% at the start of the year. Fed officials have emphasized that wages are not a major source of inflation, and the lack of evidence of a wage-price spiral is an important distinction when calibrating policy.
Concerns remain: Worker confidence hits a record low, but layoffs remain low
Despite this, concerns about labor-market conditions persist. The latest Glassdoor survey showed that worker confidence fell to a record low in September, marking the third time this year that this has happened. Daniel Zhao, the job-search website’s chief economist, said concerns stemmed from “heightened anxiety over job security, economic uncertainty and inflation.” Workers also cited fears about artificial intelligence.
However, layoffs remained low. The latest data showed that initial jobless claims fell to 197k last week. Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported Thursday that layoffs in September fell 18% from August and 20% from the same period last year.
Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade, said job openings were declining and hiring was slowly weakening, and that based on the data and various feedback, it was difficult for people to find new jobs. The unemployment rate had changed little and remained historically quite low.
He believed that “stable” was a very appropriate way to describe the current labor market.
Summary
The key takeaways from the September nonfarm payrolls report are that the market consensus calls for 84k new jobs and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.1%, but the data itself may not alter the Fed’s overall policy stance.
Fed officials have repeatedly emphasized recently that the labor market has stabilized and there is no need to rush another rate hike. Market expectations for an October hike have fallen sharply, with investors now leaning more toward action in December.
Average monthly wage growth in 2026 was 80k, while wage growth slowed to 3.1%, with no evidence of a wage-price spiral. But worker confidence fell to a record low, and anxiety over job security and artificial intelligence increased, creating potential concerns.
Overall, the report is more likely to confirm a “stable but unspectacular” labor-market picture than provide a decisive signal that would change the policy direction.#非农就业数据

#非农就业数据 #每周来晒 Nonfarm payrolls came in shockingly low! Just 29k, far below expectations—is a Fed rate hike in October completely off the table?
Tonight’s nonfarm payrolls report delivered a direct blow to the market. Interestingly, just before the data was released, the market still viewed it as a “lackluster report” and had priced its impact at a recent low. Yet this very report that nobody cared about produced the biggest surprise in this year’s labor market.
Let’s start with the key figures: U.S. seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29k in September. What does that mean? The market expected 90k, while the previous figure was 162k—less than one-third of expectations and nearly 80% lower than the previous month.
The unemployment rate also failed to hold steady, rising from the previous and expected 4.1% to 4.2%, a new high for the period. People were still discussing how resilient employment was, but overnight, much of that optimism vanished.
Don’t assume this is merely a one-month fluctuation; the signal behind it is actually quite significant.
Looking back, payrolls rose by 21k in July, 162k in August, and 29k in September. The three-month average comes to just over 70k, nowhere near last year’s monthly average of more than 200,000.
The cooling in employment is not due to any single sector dragging things down—it is broad-based weakness: manufacturing has shown no improvement, service-sector hiring has slowed sharply, and leisure and hospitality, education, and healthcare, which had previously carried the load, have also lost momentum. White-collar positions in information and finance continue to contract.
Put simply, after being squeezed by high interest rates for so long, companies have finally reached their limit and started cutting hiring. The labor market has officially shifted from “extremely tight” to loosening. The most direct impact of this report is that it effectively seals the door on a Fed rate hike in October.
Just one week ago, the market was still pricing in a more-than-60% probability of a rate hike in October. But over the past two days, Jefferson and Williams successively struck a dovish tone, saying they should wait and see and need not rush. At the time, many people thought it was just lip service.
Now that the nonfarm payrolls data is out, it has given them a solid reason: with employment this weak, there is no need to rush into another hike. Barring surprises, the October policy meeting will most likely leave rates unchanged, and even hawkish statements will soften considerably. Policy will officially shift from a “rate-hike cycle” to an “observation period.”
The market reacted quickly after the data was released. Let’s go through the major assets one by one.
First, stocks: in the short term, they will certainly breathe a sigh of relief. With rate-hike expectations receding, U.S. Treasury yields will likely fall, easing pressure on high-valuation technology and growth stocks.
But don’t celebrate too soon. Weak employment is essentially a weak economy, and corporate earnings will likely come under pressure later. So this is more likely to be a rebound and recovery, not the start of a bull market; volatility and grinding consolidation will probably continue.
Next is gold. The logic is simple: rate-hike expectations have faded, real rates are heading lower, and safe-haven sentiment over a weakening economy provides additional support. But don’t chase it too aggressively. Inflation remains sticky, and the Fed cannot immediately pivot to rate cuts. Gold is more likely to move from its previous pressured range into choppy trading at a higher level.
Finally, oil and commodities will see greater divergence. Weak employment means expectations for aggregate demand will be revised downward, which is bearish for oil prices. But tensions in the Middle East have not eased, and geopolitical premiums continue to provide support. So crude oil will most likely remain volatile at high levels—any decline may be limited, while its upside also lacks momentum.
Industrial commodities will be somewhat weaker, with pressure on the demand side gradually becoming apparent.
Overall, this nonfarm payrolls report is a turning point. The market had previously been debating whether employment was truly resilient and whether more rate hikes were needed. Now the answer is clear: the cooling in employment is a trend, not an accident; an October rate hike is essentially off the table, and the next question is whether inflation can fall along with it.

#美国9月非农新增2.9万 Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29k, just one-third of expectations (consensus: 84,000-90k), while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% (a 3-month high). July was also revised down to negative growth of -10k ——the labor market is not “cooling,” but “clearly weakening.”
The market’s reaction: The probability of a rate hike in October fell to just 28% (still 70% a week ago), 2- to 7-year U.S. Treasury yields fell more than 10bp that day, U.S. stock index futures surged (Nasdaq futures +1.06%), and BTC climbed to $87,250. The “bad news fully priced in” rally has materialized, confirming Uptober.

1️⃣ How have rate expectations changed? ——October is out, but the “rate hike” is not dead
Latest CME data: 71.8% expect rates to remain unchanged in October, while the rate-hike probability has fallen to just 28.2%; however, the combined probability of a December rate hike remains above 80% (25bp at 60.4% + 50bp at 20.8%)
​The essence is “a delayed rate hike,” not “the end of rate hikes” ——the market is no longer fully pricing in continued rate hikes this year, but December is still hanging over it
​Don’t celebrate too soon: Wage growth fell to 3.0%, but elevated oil prices and sticky core inflation remain ——weak employment ≠ no inflation worries; the Fed’s “tightening spell” has not been lifted

2️⃣ How is crypto reacting? ——The frontrun has materialized, but $87K is a hurdle
BTC surged directly from $86K toward $87,250 before meeting resistance, and is now hovering around $86-87K ——the data-driven bullish catalyst was “already known,” and part of the move happened in advance
​$85K has turned from resistance into support, while $87-88K is the previous-high resistance zone ——a breakout means looking toward $90K; failure to break through means sideways consolidation here
​Remember last month’s mirror image: August nonfarm payrolls came in at 162k (3 times expectations) → BTC fell below $80K; this month’s 29k (one-third of expectations) → BTC climbed above $86K ——the same formula, applied in reverse

3️⃣ My trading approach (for reference):
BTC: A pullback to $85-86K is an entry point for longs; if it holds above $87.25 with a volume-backed breakout, add to the position and target $90K; a break below $84.5K would indicate frontrunning funds are exiting, so reduce first
​DOGE: The trigger at $0.10 has already been pulled halfway ——if BTC holds above $87K and DOGE breaks above $0.0966 with volume, test $0.10; hold long positions as long as $0.092-0.093 holds
​GT: Countercyclical + platform capital inflows ——add to the position on a pullback to $10.5-11, and don’t chase highs
​U.S. stocks (MU/AMD/SNDK): Weak nonfarm payrolls = lower rate expectations = relief for high-valuation AI stocks ——Nasdaq futures have already signaled this with a +1% move tonight, and AI hardware will likely get another lease on life next week

Nonfarm payrolls came in at one-third of expectations, kicking October rate hikes out of the script ——risk assets have entered a “breathing window,” but the December knife is still hanging overhead. Go long early during the window, but keep position sizes under control: if $87K cannot be breached, wait for a pullback; don’t chase highs on the day the bullish catalyst materializes.

Uptober is off to a good start—did your position catch this move? Let’s discuss in the comments 👇

#美国30年期国债收益率2002年以来新高 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surges to 5.60%, highest since 2002: when this “anchor of asset pricing” shakes, global wealth must adjust along with it
If global financial markets were to choose the “most expensive price tag,” many would point to long-term U.S. Treasury yields—they are known as the “anchor of global asset pricing” because they largely determine the “risk-free floor” for everything from mortgages and corporate bonds to all risk assets.
The latest data caused this anchor to shake: On September 29, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly rose to 5.595%, then climbed further to 5.60% late in the session, reaching its highest level since 2002. Behind this is the continued global tightening cycle.
As energy prices rise and inflationary pressures resurface, markets are continually raising their expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path.
More importantly, the yield curve is flattening at an accelerating pace: The spread between 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasuries, once nearly 75 basis points, has now narrowed to only about 21 basis points.
Historically, an inverted yield curve has been called a “recession signal light”—the yield curve inverted before all of the past nine U.S. recessions.
However, this signal is not always reliable. The sustained inversion from 2022 to 2024 did not bring about a corresponding recession and was viewed by the market as a “false alarm.”
Professionals are more inclined to treat it as an early warning rather than confirmation: What really needs watching are the financial conditions behind the curve—persistently high interest rates will continue to raise corporate financing costs and amplify volatility in globally overvalued assets.
Meanwhile, the OECD’s latest outlook raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2026 to 2.9%, and the resilience of the world economy amid headwinds remains impossible to underestimate$NAS100 ‌

#每周来晒 #​MU PCE cools, Micron earnings beat expectations—how should we trade US stocks going forward?
Last night's US stock market gave a classic signal: the macro backdrop was not bad, AI was strong, yet the indexes did not celebrate.
The Dow fell, the S&P was weak, and the Nasdaq edged higher, showing that the market is no longer simply trading “good news,” but weighing two things: inflation has fallen, but the economy remains strong; AI is hot, but opportunities are becoming more concentrated.
August PCE rose 3.4% YoY, while core PCE rose 3.0% YoY and 0.2% MoM, all below expectations, and short-end rates fell alongside rate-hike expectations. But consumer spending rose 0.9% MoM, economic resilience remains, and long-end rates remain under pressure.
What the market is really worried about is this: if the economy stays strong, when will the Fed have room to pivot? Funds are therefore clustering around certainty—AI computing power, cloud, data centers, semiconductors, and a handful of platform companies. This is structural crowding, not a broad-based rally.
I. Micron wins on pricing, not volume
Micron's earnings report last night brought the story down to orders.
Fourth-quarter revenue was $54.23 billion, up 379% YoY, with full-year revenue at $133.188 billion; the midpoint of next-quarter revenue guidance was $61.5 billion, while adjusted EPS guidance was $38.15, both above expectations.
The source of profits is even more important: DRAM revenue was $39.8 billion, accounting for 73% of total revenue, with prices surging QoQ while shipments rose only by the mid-single digits—this is price increases, not volume growth.
Core data center revenue was $18 billion, up 56% QoQ, with a 90% gross margin. Most of HBM capacity for 2027 has already been locked in, while remaining performance obligations under long-term agreements are approximately $150 billion.
The AI trade is not about a single GPU, but about who has pricing power across the entire computing-power chain. Yet Micron did not surge after hours, pulling back after an initial jump and ultimately gaining less than 1%.
The reason is simple: it has already more than tripled this year, so good news had been priced in early; gross-margin guidance of 86.25% was slightly below expectations, and management also said price increases would moderate. The upcycle remains intact, but the market has already begun asking: how long can this strong cycle last?
II. Platforms are competing for distribution; space remains an option
Google's performance last night looked like the “new king,” representing another track. Search, YouTube, and Android are the entry points, while Cloud and its in-house TPU form a closed loop.
In the second half of the model race, whoever can bring costs down and embed models into products users open every day will have thicker cash flow. Regulation remains a discount on valuation.
Space, by contrast, is the comparison group. Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile have high elasticity, but cash flow is still far off. With rates above 5%, the longer the duration, the greater the pain.
The advice for everyone is: Micron is about orders, while space is an option; they should not be treated as the same position.
III. Friday's nonfarm payrolls are the real pricing switch
ADP showed that private-sector employment increased by 90,000 in September, above expectations of approximately 70,000, while hourly earnings were still up 3.2% YoY. If Friday's nonfarm payrolls and hourly earnings are both strong, long-end rates will have further room to rise, and high-valuation growth stocks will remain under pressure; if employment cools moderately, the market will resume trading the soft-landing narrative. Headcount determines the narrative, while hourly earnings determine whether the Fed dares to pause.
In terms of execution, watch nonfarm payrolls first, then act.
If the data are strong, do not chase the indexes; if the data cool, add to computing-power chains with pricing power. Storage and data centers are preferable to space themes. Micron has validated demand and remains reasonably valued, but be cautious about chasing highs.
Finally, wishing everyone successful trading and a happy National Day holiday.🎉$MU

#核心PCE与GDP终值 U.S. inflation cools, rate expectations shift, and the crypto market receives a positive signal
Recent U.S. inflation data has shown signs of easing, reducing market concerns over further Federal Reserve rate hikes and raising expectations for monetary easing, which could support risk assets such as Bitcoin.
According to the latest August PCE data, the U.S. headline PCE price index rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, while core PCE rose 0.2% month-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year. The personal consumption expenditures price data released this time came in below broad market expectations.
PCE is a key inflation indicator closely watched by the Federal Reserve. The relatively moderate data directly lowered market expectations for another rate hike by the Fed in October.
In financial market logic, a high interest rate environment will continue to suppress risk asset valuations. Once rate hike expectations cool, funds will be more willing to flow into highly elastic asset sectors, benefiting crypto assets as well.
Brendan Ma, head of investment strategy at the Arbitrum Foundation, said that core PCE rising 0.2% month-on-month was a positive signal for the Federal Reserve. If September CPI data continues to show this trend of slowing inflation, pressure on the Fed to raise rates in October will decline further.
For the crypto market, macro interest rates have always been a key variable driving the broader market. The previous market downturn was largely caused by the Federal Reserve's continued rate hikes, which tightened market liquidity and led funds to withdraw from high-risk assets.
If inflation continues to fall, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shifts from tightening to waiting, or even begins a rate-cutting cycle in the future, improved market liquidity conditions will generally make it easier for crypto assets such as Bitcoin to enter a sustained trend.
However, this should also be viewed objectively. A single month's inflation data can only represent a short-term change, and inflation could rebound. If prices rise again, the Federal Reserve's policy stance could shift once more.
The market cannot conclude that the trend has reversed based on a single data release. A series of key economic indicators, including CPI and nonfarm payrolls, will need to be tracked continuously.
Overall, the current macro environment is showing signs of marginal improvement, providing a sentiment boost to the crypto market, but the market remains uncertain. Confirming a turning point in the macro cycle will require validation from more consecutive data releases. Investors should view short-term positive news rationally and remain alert to risks arising from market volatility.

#美光即将披露四季度财报 Micron’s “blowout” earnings report, yet its stock fluctuates: The memory supercycle is far from peaking—why is the market no longer excited?
After the U.S. market closed on Thursday Eastern Time, Micron Technology (MUUS) brought its fiscal 2026 to a close with an almost flawless earnings report.
The report showed that the company’s fourth-quarter revenue reached $54.23 billion, up 379% year over year and 31% quarter over quarter, setting a record for the sixth consecutive quarter; adjusted earnings per share came in at $33.42, up more than tenfold year over year; and gross margin climbed to 87%, up 2.1 percentage points from the previous quarter.
For the full fiscal year, Micron’s total revenue reached $133.19 billion, 3.5 times the record level of the previous fiscal year. Data center revenue quadrupled year over year, while full-year DRAM revenue surpassed $100 billion for the first time.
Guidance for the next quarter also far exceeded expectations: the midpoint of the revenue forecast was $61.5 billion, above Wall Street’s expectation of $57.57 billion; the midpoint of adjusted EPS guidance was $38.15, above Wall Street’s expectation of $35.81.
However, after the earnings report was released, Micron’s stock initially rose about 2% in after-hours trading, then quickly turned lower, fluctuating between bulls and bears. As of press time, the stock was trading around $1,060 in premarket trading, down approximately 0.5%. Why did an almost “perfect-score” earnings report fail to ignite market enthusiasm?
Strength of the results: Beyond the numbers
The strength of Micron’s earnings report was first reflected in the qualitative shift in its revenue mix. In the fourth quarter, revenue from its core data center business (CDBU) reached $18 billion, up 56% quarter over quarter, with gross margin as high as 90%, up more than tenfold year over year. AI server demand was the core driver. Data center operations currently account for 33% of the company’s total revenue, while cloud storage revenue reached $16.3 billion, accounting for 30%. Combined, the two businesses now contribute more than 60% of total revenue. In DRAM, revenue reached $39.8 billion, up 343% year over year. Bit shipment volume grew by a mid-single-digit percentage quarter over quarter, but prices rose by a high-single-digit percentage, indicating that growth was driven primarily by pricing rather than simply by higher shipment volumes, reflecting extremely tight industry supply and demand. NAND revenue reached $14.1 billion, up 526% year over year and 42% quarter over quarter. Bit shipment volume grew by approximately 10%, while prices rose by approximately 30%, further underscoring the severity of supply bottlenecks.
Also worth noting was key information Micron disclosed on its earnings call regarding future capacity: More than 75% of fiscal 2027 shipments have already been locked in through long-term agreements. The number of strategic customer agreements (SCAs) increased from 16 in the previous quarter to 26, total customer prepayments rose from $22 billion to $32 billion, and remaining performance obligations (RPO) reached approximately $150 billion, up sharply from approximately $100 billion in the previous quarter.
These agreements are expected to cover more than 35% of Micron’s revenue through 2030, with approximately three-quarters already having pricing frameworks established. Most include price ranges, and some agreements even extend into 2031.
On capital expenditures, Micron announced approximately $25 billion in capital spending for the first half of fiscal 2027, including approximately $11.5 billion in the first quarter. Spending will increase further in the second half, with most of the incremental investment going toward new wafer fabrication plants rather than simply equipment purchases. Regarding capacity ramp-up, output from the first Idaho plant has been brought forward to mid-CY27; the Singapore plant is expected to begin output in 2HCY28; completion of the cleanroom at the Hiroshima plant has been brought forward to the end of CY28; and construction has begun on the New York plant. CFO Mark Murphy disclosed on the earnings call that the company generated $44 billion in operating cash flow and $33.2 billion in free cash flow in the fourth quarter, and pledged to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders in the future.
Memory is defining AI’s boundaries
On the earnings call, Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra described the industry’s current transformation as follows: “Superintelligence is creating the most compelling opportunity in Micron’s history.”
This was not empty rhetoric.
From an industry perspective, the expansion of AI model sizes is driving not only demand for computing power but also exponential growth in demand for memory capacity and bandwidth. Mehrotra said on the call that running AI applications on platforms with greater memory capabilities can enable more scalable growth and improve the end-user experience. In other words, memory is not only an important part of AI infrastructure but also a key variable determining the upper limit of AI system capabilities. In HBM, Micron has partnered with NVIDIA (NVDAUS) to develop the industry’s first customized HBM solution. In the first quarter of 2026, Micron began mass production of its HBM4 12-high-stacked 36GB product for NVIDIA’s Vera Rubin platform, achieving bandwidth of more than 2.8TB per second. Mehrotra revealed that most of HBM’s 2027 supply has already been contracted: “Prices are up significantly year over year, narrowing the gross-margin gap between HBM and traditional DRAM.”
This means the HBM business is shifting from a “strategic investment” to a “profit contributor.” Over the long term, Mehrotra outlined “physical AI” as a new growth engine on the earnings call. He emphasized that autonomous vehicles at Level 4 and above generally require more than 200GB of memory and several TB of storage, an order of magnitude more than current Level 2+/Level 3 vehicles; humanoid robots are also expected to have similar requirements. He stressed that by the end of this century, physical AI will become an important driver of memory demand.
A supply-and-demand analysis published by JPMorgan before the earnings report showed that HBM supply-demand shortfalls would be 20%, 19%, and 16% in 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, with the cumulative shortage reaching 23 weeks by 2028.
Citi’s analysis was more aggressive, forecasting that the supply-demand shortfall would widen from -21% in 2027 to -36% in 2028.
Deutsche Bank’s estimates indicated that the DRAM supply-demand shortfall would widen further in 2027 and 2028, with the market potentially not reaching balance until 2029.
These figures point to the same conclusion: AI-driven memory demand has entered a phase of structural shortage rather than cyclical fluctuation.
Why is the stock fluctuating?
Given such strong fundamentals, why has Micron’s stock barely moved?
First, gross-margin guidance became a short-term “brake” on sentiment. Fourth-quarter gross margin of 87% did exceed analysts’ expectation of 86.9%, but gross-margin guidance for the next quarter was approximately 86.25%, below the market expectation of 87.4%.
CFO Murphy explained that the first quarter would be the low point for full-year fiscal 2027 gross margin, mainly due to sales of higher-cost inventory and higher compensation expenses. Gross margin is expected to gradually recover in subsequent quarters, but the pace of price increases will moderate.
With expectations extremely high, even a 0.45-percentage-point shortfall in gross-margin guidance was enough to trigger profit-taking by some investors.
Second, the sharp increase in capital expenditures overshadowed the positive impact of the earnings beat.
The market has begun to worry that Micron is shifting from a “gross-margin expansion model” to a “capacity expansion model.” Some analysts have noted that as financial results continue to exceed expectations, Micron’s stock may enter a consolidation phase rather than continue rising sharply simply on positive earnings news. The significant increase in capital expenditures implies higher depreciation expenses in the future, and profit margins may face structural pressure, making this an important factor weighing on the stock in the short term. Other analysis also pointed out that the news of increased capital spending overshadowed the earnings beat after hours.
In its latest research report, a Goldman Sachs team led by analyst James Schneider also noted that Micron’s latest quarterly results and next-quarter guidance were both significantly above Wall Street expectations. The company also disclosed more long-term customer agreements and substantially raised its capital expenditure plan, factors that could support a moderate rise in the stock price. However, gross margin was slightly below Goldman Sachs’ expectations, and investor expectations had already been elevated, limiting room for further valuation expansion. From investors’ perspective—and perhaps the most fundamental reason—the market’s focus is shifting from “how strong is the upcycle?” to “how long can it last?”
Morgan Stanley said after the earnings report that the market’s focus was shifting. Investors are no longer concerned only with how strong current results are, but have begun examining whether this supercycle can continue beyond 2028.
Micron’s stock has risen sharply since the beginning of the year, and the market has largely priced in better-than-expected results. Despite its strong fundamentals, Micron’s stock is still trading at approximately 7 times forward earnings, well below the average of around 10 times over the past two years. Expectations for a significant slowdown in growth in fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028 have already been partially reflected in the valuation.
In addition, expectation management may have entered a phase where “even exceeding expectations is not enough.” Some analysts have noted that analysts now view Micron’s ability to exceed its own guidance as the norm, and the market is looking for it to “exceed the expectations of exceeding expectations.” Options-market data showed that over the past 10 earnings reports, Micron’s average next-day stock-price move was 9.4%, with a median of 9.1%. However, options for this report priced in a move of only approximately 6.3%, indicating that expectations for sharp post-earnings volatility had fallen significantly.
Goldman Sachs maintained its “Neutral” rating after Micron released its earnings report, but raised its price target from $1,100 to $1,250, based on an 18x P/E multiple and revised normalized EPS of $70. The Schneider team concluded that risk and reward are roughly balanced at current levels, but it would consider becoming more constructive on Micron if the industry maintains supply growth discipline through 2028 and beyond.
In fact, the significance of Micron’s earnings report has gone beyond the performance of a single company.
The core signal it conveys is that AI infrastructure demand for memory is not a short-term pulse, but a long-term structural trend that could continue through 2028 or even longer.
For investors, however, the challenge is this: Once a company’s strong fundamentals become consensus, the source of excess returns is no longer simply confirming the strength of the upcycle, but determining whether the cycle’s durability can exceed market expectations. The current valuation of approximately 7 times forward earnings reflects market concerns about slowing growth, but may also contain underestimated long-term value.#每周来晒 $MU ‌

#核心PCE与GDP终值 PCE data is in! CME rate expectations shift sharply, Fed rate hike expectations cool rapidly, and global assets receive a turning-point signal
After the release of the US August core PCE inflation data, CME FedWatch interest rate futures data was updated simultaneously, and market expectations for subsequent Fed rate hikes declined significantly. Inflation data came in below expectations, prompting funds to reprice the Fed’s future monetary policy path.
I. Latest CME FedWatch Probability Data
According to the CME FedWatch tool: The probability of a rate hike at the Fed’s October 28 meeting fell to 37.1%. Compared with 50.9% the previous day, this was a sharp single-day decline of 13.8 percentage points. Meanwhile, the market’s expectation that rates will be raised at least once more this year before the end of December fell to 86.8%, down 4.8 percentage points from 91.6% the previous day. By component, the market’s pricing for the year-end interest rate range is as follows:
Federal funds rate rising to 4.00%-4.25%, probability 57.5%​
Federal funds rate rising to 4.25%-4.50%, probability 29.3%
Simply put: After core PCE came in below expectations, traders believe the need for the Fed to continue raising rates in October has declined significantly. The market is no longer certain that a rate hike will occur in October, with the timing of the hike increasingly being pushed back to December.
II. The Logic Behind the Data
Core PCE is the inflation indicator most closely watched by the Fed. This time, the month-on-month increase was just 0.2%, below the market expectation of 0.3%, indicating that the slowdown in US inflation exceeded market expectations.
With inflationary pressure easing, the Fed does not need to continue raising rates aggressively. Expectations for the duration of high interest rates have shortened, which is highly favorable for global growth-style assets.
Falling rate expectations directly trigger a chain reaction: US Treasury yields come under downward pressure, US stock index futures rise rapidly, and gold strengthens in the short term. High-valuation technology growth stocks are the most sensitive to interest rate changes, while sectors such as memory chips, AI computing power, and CPO are seeing valuation pressure ease.
However, one point needs to be viewed objectively: Although the probability of a rate hike in October has declined significantly, the probability of at least one more rate hike this year remains as high as 86.8%. The market has not completely abandoned expectations for a rate hike this year; it has merely postponed the timing of the hike, rather than directly shifting to a rate-cutting cycle. Inflation has not yet returned to the Fed’s 2% target range, and monetary policy remains relatively tight, so this should not be interpreted as全面宽松.
III. Key Areas to Monitor Going Forward
1. The sustainability of the 10-year US Treasury yield.
If yields continue to decline, the recovery logic for growth sectors will continue; if they rebound rapidly, the positive effects will quickly fade.​
2. Fund support after the official US stock market open.
The rise in stock index futures reflects only premarket expectations. It is necessary to observe whether gains can hold after the official open and guard against a pullback as positive news is priced in.
​3. Subsequent US employment, CPI, and other data.
Inflation is dynamic, and an improvement in monthly PCE does not mean inflation will continue to decline.

#OneGate见证计划 The altcoin season index is nearing 75! During the 7-day National Day holiday, will the crypto market see a second wave of celebration, or reach a short-term top?
The crypto market has experienced rotation recently: BTC has remained strong, ETH and SOL have risen, and altcoins have begun to catch up.
Especially over the past two weeks: Stimulated by the SEC innovation exemption news, UNI surged about 40%ARB, RAY, AR, and several other sectors rose by more than 20%. The altcoin season index rapidly climbed, reaching as high as 74, very close to the “altcoin season confirmation line” of 75. Judging from sentiment indicators, the market has clearly entered a stage of rising risk appetite.
But one question has emerged: Does the altcoin season index nearing overheated levels mean the market is already approaching a top?
My view: The market may enter a period of consolidation or even divergence in the short term, but it does not currently look like a bull-market top.
The reason is that a true major bull-market top is usually accompanied by: mass mania, a large influx of new users, junk coins surging across the board, extreme expansion of high leverage, and media coverage of financial freedom everywhere. The current market is more characterized by: institutional funds driving the market, BTC dominance remaining relatively high, capital concentrated in a few strong-narrative altcoins, and rotation only just beginning. Therefore: this is not a bull-market top, but more like a release of risk appetite during the middle stage of a bull market.
01 Altcoin season index: What does nearing 75 mean? Looking at the CoinGlass altcoin season index: the current index is around 62, while the highest level a few days ago was: 74, just one step away from 75.
Historically: below 25:
BTC stage 25–50: BTC leads, with some altcoins catching up
50–75: Altcoin rotation stage
Above 75: Full altcoin season begins. The current level is actually in: the acceleration zone after the start of altcoin season.
But note: A rising index does not mean that every altcoin has an opportunity.
The future is more likely to unfold as follows:
Stage one: Strong narratives rise, such as: RWA, DeFi, AI+Crypto, DePIN, Layer2
Stage two: Capital spreads, such as: second-tier protocols and small-cap projects rising.
Stage three: Junk-coin mania
The current market is closer to: the transition from stage one to stage two.
02 Why might short-term narratives struggle to take over?
The biggest driver over the past week was not simply a technical breakout.
It was: policy catalysts + the repricing of new narratives. For example: the SEC innovation exemption prompted the market to imagine anew: tokenization → securities on-chain → on-chain trading → DEX liquidity → UNI, RAY, and other beneficiaries. This is a complete industry chain.
But the problem is that the market has already begun trading this expectation.
The first batch: UNI, ONDO, and the SOL ecosystem have already attracted capital.
The next step requires: new catalysts to continue driving the market. Otherwise, the market could easily see: news-driven surge → short-term funds take profits → hot sectors cool down → waiting for the next narrative. Therefore, the biggest feature of the 7-day National Day holiday may be: upside remains, but the market will not simply replicate the broad surge of the past few days.
03 7-day National Day holiday market scenarios
Scenario one: Bullish trend (lower probability) Conditions: BTC holds key levels, US Treasury yields decline, the market continues trading tokenization/RWA, and ETF inflows continue.
Trend: BTC consolidates upward → ETH and SOL continue catching up → RWA, DeFi, and AI sectors continue rotating.
Possible development: UNI, ONDO, LINK, and the SOL ecosystem rise for a second time.
Feature: This is not a broad altcoin season. Instead: strong-narrative assets continue attracting capital.
Scenario two: Consolidation and digestion
This is currently the more likely scenario. The reason is that the altcoin season index is already near a high level. Short-term funds have taken significant profits.
During the National Day holiday: Trading volume in Europe and the US will decline, some funds will be on holiday, and large funds will wait for the October FOMC.
Possible trend: BTC consolidates at high levels, ETH and SOL outperform BTC, and rotation takes place within the altcoin market. A coin that rises 20% today may correct 10%–15%. However, coins with strong trends may continue rising after the correction.
This is: healthy rotation during a bull market.
Scenario three: Black swan correction, which requires close attention.
Possible sources:
1. Federal Reserve policy. The biggest variable in the market currently is: Will rates be raised again in October? Market expectations for an October rate hike have fluctuated recently. Some market data shows that as inflation data came in below expectations and Fed officials signaled caution, the probability of another rate hike in October has declined; however, some institutions still believe inflationary pressure could lead to further tightening. If the Fed remains hawkish in October, this could result in: a stronger dollar → tighter liquidity → pressure on risk assets → a short-term Crypto correction.
2. Policy and regulatory risks
Over the next three months, focus on:
United States: the Crypto market structure bill, stablecoin regulation, and subsequent SEC rulemaking. If policy progresses smoothly: bullish.
If there are: delays, disagreements, or regulatory conflicts, the market may cool in the short term.
3. Leverage risk
The market has just experienced a rapid rise in altcoins. Watch: perpetual futures funding rates, open interest, and liquidation volumes.
If: prices rise while leverage increases rapidly. This could easily lead to: a rapid liquidation event.
04 Over the next three months, focus on three variables
Variable 1: Will tokenization continue to spread?
Currently: SEC policy → ONDO → DTCC → institutional assets. This direction has already formed a trend. For a truly major market move in the future, we need to see clear action from traditional financial institutions such as BlackRock, Fidelity, and JPMorgan.
Variable 2: Will altcoin capital expand?
The key is not how much BTC rises. It is whether, after BTC rises, capital flows into: ETH, SOL, DeFi, AI, and RWA.
If only BTC rises: risk appetite is insufficient.
If: BTC stabilizes → ETH and SOL rise → altcoins spread → that is a true altcoin season.
Variable 3: Will liquidity improve?
The core of a Crypto bull market is not stories, but money. Focus on: Federal Reserve policy, US Treasury yields, the dollar index, and ETF flows.
05 My National Day holiday trading strategy
Given the current environment, I will not:
❌ Go all-in chasing gains
❌ Panic-sell because the altcoin index is nearing 75
❌ Immediately chase a coin after seeing others rise 20%–40%. A more reasonable strategy is:
First: Retain core positions in BTC, ETH, and high-quality public chains.
Second: Look for pullback opportunities in strong narratives. Focus on: RWA: ONDO, LINK, SOL. DeFi: UNI, AAVE. Solana ecosystem: RAY.
Third: Set event-trading rules.
If there is: policy confirmation → a rise in leading assets → sector expansion → increased trading volume, participation is possible. If chasing after a single coin surges 50%, the risk-reward ratio declines.
06 Final summary
The current market is not at the end of the bull market, but it is also not a mindless frenzy.
It looks more like: the second stage of a bull market, with capital spreading from BTC into strong-narrative altcoins. The altcoin season index nearing 75 is an important signal: it shows that market risk appetite is rising.
But over the next three months: what truly determines the market’s upside is not sentiment, but:
1. Whether Federal Reserve policy shifts
2. Whether tokenization/RWA continues to gain institutional validation
3. Whether altcoin capital forms sustained rotation
During the 7-day National Day holiday, the more likely outcome is high-level consolidation and hot-sector rotation, rather than a broad frenzy.
The biggest opportunities may not necessarily come from chasing gains, but from: identifying in advance the next industry trend that has not been fully priced in. This is also why the current focus is on: tokenization → RWA → DeFi → on-chain financial infrastructure. #每周来晒

#核心PCE与GDP终值 Core PCE and Q2 GDP final estimate preview: Tonight at 20:30, two “rate-hike detectors”

Tonight (9/30) from 20:15-20:30, three releases will come in rapid succession: core PCE expected at 3.3%, unchanged (sticky inflation narrative), Q2 GDP final estimate expected at 1.5%, unchanged (backward-looking, low attention), and ADP expected at 70,000 (previously 38,000).
The real focus is not the “numbers themselves,” but rather: if PCE beats expectations → the probability of a rate hike in October (currently down from 68% to around 50%) surges again; if PCE falls + ADP is weak → rate-hike expectations cool further. Also, don’t forget the backdrop: the Atlanta Fed forecasts Q3 GDP as high as 5.0% — “an overheated economy” is the foundation of the rate-hike narrative.

I. Core PCE (August): Expected to hold steady; watch for any “surprise”
Consensus forecast: August headline PCE and core PCE are both expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month; headline PCE at 3.7% year-on-year and core PCE at 3.3% year-on-year (unchanged from July) — still far above the 2% target, with virtually no sign of rapid easing in price pressures.
But there are three “hidden variables”:
1. Methodological revisions: This release will incorporate the BEA’s annual benchmark revisions, which are expected to lower historical core PCE data by around 0.2 percentage points — the published “revision” may make inflation readings look better, but that does not mean inflation has actually fallen.
​2. Regions’ more hawkish forecast: They see core PCE at 3.4% year-on-year (above the consensus of 3.3%) — if the reading comes in at 3.4% tonight, the market will immediately reprice.
​3. Warsh’s preference for the “trimmed mean”: The chairman himself puts more faith in trimmed mean PCE than in this data point — even if the reading is high, his policy response may not be what the market expects (a source of expectation gaps).
How to read it: ≥3.4% = rate-hike expectations heat up (October probability returns to 60%+); 3.3% unchanged = status quo; ≤3.2% = puts the brakes on rate-hike expectations.

II. Q2 GDP final estimate (third estimate): Expected to hold at 1.5%
Consensus: median **+1.5%** (annualized), range 1.5-1.9%; the second estimate was also +1.5% (Q1 was +2.1%).
Why it does not matter:
Q2 is “backward-looking” — the market has already priced in this figure, and the final estimate is usually revised only slightly, so it will not drive the market.
​The real signal is in Q3: the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecasts Q3 GDP as high as 5.0% (9/25) — the “overheating” acceleration from 1.5% to 5% is what gives the Fed the confidence not to signal easing and even to continue hiking.
This final estimate will incorporate annual revisions (all data from Q1 2021 to Q1 2026 will be revised), and some individual figures may “change,” but the broad “overheating economy” framework will not change.

III. Combined scenarios (how to read tonight’s data)
Scenario one (hike camp wins): Core PCE 3.4%+ and ADP >70,000 → October rate-hike probability returns to 60%+ → dollar strengthens, U.S. stocks and crypto come under pressure, BTC retests $82K
Scenario two (wait-and-see camp wins): Core PCE below 3.2% + ADP <50,000 → rate-hike probability falls below 40% → risk assets catch their breath, BTC rebounds to $85K+
Scenario three (neutral, most likely): PCE 3.3% unchanged + ADP 50,000-70,000 → the market remains stuck in the “50-50 odds of an October hike” state → markets continue to grind, waiting for Friday’s nonfarm payrolls to settle the matter.
My view: Scenario three is the most likely — sticky PCE (3.3%) is the baseline case, so tonight will probably be “neither hot nor cold”; the real decider is still Friday’s nonfarm payrolls.

Impact on the market
BTC: The $82K lifeline remains unchanged — hawkish data tonight → dip toward $82K; dovish data → rebound to $85K; neutral → continue grinding between $82-85K.
​U.S. stocks: MU earnings are due after tonight’s session (after the U.S. market close) — with PCE and MU earnings landing together, the memory sector is likely to be highly volatile tonight.

Tonight’s core PCE is the sticky “3.3% unchanged” story + Q2 GDP is the “1.5% backward-looking” sideshow — what really moves the market is “whether there is a surprise,” not “whether it matches expectations.” Don’t take a directional position before the data is released; act afterward. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls are the real finale of the week. $BTC ‌

#BTC回落至83000美元 The Crypto Market as the Rate-Hike Cycle Resumes: Bitcoin Seeks a New Equilibrium Between the “Currency Debasement Trade” and “Liquidity Drain”
In September 2026, the global macro environment underwent a profound shift: After a three-year hiatus, the Federal Reserve resumed rate hikes, raising the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75%-4.00%; the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 5.20%, its highest level since 2007; and the 30-year Treasury yield broke above 5.5%, reaching a 22-year high.
However, contrary to conventional wisdom, Bitcoin did not collapse during the rate-hike cycle, instead showing rare resilience within the $75,000-$87,000 range.
This article provides an in-depth analysis of the tug-of-war between the two forces currently facing the crypto market—the liquidity-tightening pressure brought by the Federal Reserve’s renewed rate hikes on one side, and structural buying support from the resurgence of the “currency debasement trade” on the other—and offers a forward-looking assessment and practical strategy recommendations for the fourth-quarter market trend.
I. Macroeconomic Shift: The Federal Reserve Resumes Rate Hikes, Bringing a Sharp Change in the Global Interest-Rate Environment
On September 16, 2026, the Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, marking the first rate hike since 2023. Behind this decision was a stubborn rebound in U.S. inflation—core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month in August, exceeding the market expectation of 0.2%. More alarming is the loss of control over long-term rates. As of September 28, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield had risen to 5.20%, its highest level since 2007. The 30-year Treasury yield also broke above 5.5%, reaching a 22-year high since 2004. U.S. federal debt has surpassed $40 trillion, while annual interest expenses exceed $1.2 trillion, accounting for approximately 25% of federal tax revenue—the vicious cycle of “issuing debt—paying interest—expanding the deficit—issuing more debt” is reinforcing itself.
It is worth noting that this rate-hike cycle is fundamentally different from the 2022 cycle. In 2022, the Federal Reserve started from zero interest rates and had ample room to raise rates; this time, the starting point is already 3.75%, while long-term rates are rising simultaneously, meaning the pressure on global risk-asset valuations may be no less significant than that from short-term rate hikes themselves. Caixin Weekly noted that this was the first time since 2006 that the central banks of the U.S., Europe, and Japan had raised rates in the same month, and that the return of “super central bank week” marked the definitive end of the era of global easing.
II. The Mystery of Bitcoin’s Resilience: Why Did It Rise Instead of Fall After the Rate Hike?
According to conventional logic, a Federal Reserve rate hike should be a major negative for the crypto market. Yet after the rate hike took effect on September 16, Bitcoin did not collapse, but instead rebounded from $76,150 to above $81,000 over the following days.
This phenomenon deserves in-depth analysis.
The first layer of logic: the “buy the expectation, sell the fact” pricing mechanism. As early as the release of the August core CPI data, the market had already fully priced in expectations for a September rate hike. PANews reported that the market had already had ample time to price in the hike, and if the Federal Reserve raised rates as expected, the market reaction could be relatively limited. In fact, Bitcoin had already fallen from above $79,000 to around $76,000 between September 10 and the rate hike on September 16, releasing pressure in advance.
The second layer of logic: the resurgence of the “currency debasement trade.” This is the core driver of the current market trend. The Securities Times reported that as the dollar weakened and both gold and Bitcoin rebounded sharply, the “currency debasement trade” was once again becoming the market’s dominant narrative. Stephen Coltman, head of macro at 21Shares, explicitly stated that the U.S. Treasury’s expansion of long-term Treasury buybacks was the “core catalyst” for Bitcoin’s latest surge.
The underlying logic is as follows: When the market worries that the U.S. Treasury is artificially suppressing long-term rates through buyback operations, it is effectively injecting liquidity into the market, which is equivalent to a form of “implicit quantitative easing.” Investors are beginning to realize that the U.S. government can neither reduce the deficit through fiscal consolidation nor withstand the damage high interest rates inflict on the economy, leaving it ultimately to return to the old path of “monetizing the fiscal deficit.”
Against this backdrop, Bitcoin, as “digital gold” for hedging against fiat-currency debasement, has actually become more attractive during the rate-hike cycle.
The third layer of logic: Bitcoin’s correlation with gold has reached a new high since the pandemic.
Data from the Securities Times shows that the 90-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold has risen to its highest positive level since the pandemic. This means Bitcoin is shifting from a “high-beta technology stock” toward an “inflation- and debasement-resistant asset,” a structural transformation with far-reaching implications for its long-term pricing logic.
III. Market Structure Analysis: Key Price Levels, Fund Flows, and Sentiment Indicators
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently trading within a wide consolidation range of $75,000 to $87,000.
On September 21, boosted by the Treasury’s buyback plan, Bitcoin briefly surged to $86,603, but then retreated to around $83,000 after the 10-year Treasury yield broke above 5.2%. As of September 30, Bitcoin stood at $83,390, down approximately 3.5% for the month, while its amplitude reached as high as 12%.
Regarding key price levels, $84,000 is the recent dividing line between bulls and bears. It is both the high of multiple September rebounds and the area around the 200-day moving average. A decisive break above it could pave the way for a challenge of the previous high at $91,000; a loss of the monthly low at $76,000 could lead to a further decline toward $72,000.
Ethereum performed relatively weakly, standing at $2,670 on September 30, up approximately 3% for the month, but still some distance from the psychological threshold of $3,000. The ETH/BTC exchange rate has continued to decline, reflecting the market’s preference for holding the most liquid crypto assets amid tightening liquidity.
On-chain data shows that Bitcoin ETFs recorded continuous net inflows during the first three weeks of September, but inflows slowed significantly in the final week. Open interest in the derivatives market declined approximately 15% from August, indicating that leveraged funds have become more cautious amid rate-hike uncertainty.
IV. Fourth-Quarter Outlook: Three Scenarios and Response Strategies
Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the core variables facing the crypto market are whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates again in October or December, and whether the 10-year Treasury yield can remain below 5.5%.
Scenario One: The Federal Reserve raises rates again in October and Treasury yields break above 5.5% (approximately 35% probability).
If core CPI continues to exceed expectations in October, the Federal Reserve may be forced into consecutive rate hikes. In that case, the “currency debasement trade” narrative will give way to the reality of “liquidity drain,” and Bitcoin could fall toward the $72,000-$75,000 range.
Response strategy: Reduce leveraged positions and increase stablecoin holdings while waiting for better entry opportunities.
Scenario Two: The Federal Reserve remains on hold and yields fluctuate at elevated levels (approximately 45% probability).
This is the mainstream scenario priced in by current CME interest-rate futures. The market expects the probability of an October rate hike to be approximately 49%, and the probability of at least one more rate hike this year to be approximately 87%.
Under this scenario, Bitcoin will most likely remain range-bound between $75,000 and $90,000, with structural opportunities in high-quality altcoins and DeFi protocols.
Response strategy: Trade the range, sell high and buy low, and watch for a breakout signal above $84,000.
Scenario Three: Inflation falls faster than expected and the rate-hike cycle ends early (approximately 20% probability).
If oil prices decline or the effects of tariffs fade, inflation could cool rapidly in the fourth quarter, giving the Federal Reserve room to resume rate cuts. Bitcoin could then challenge $91,000 and even the previous high of $126,000.
Response strategy: Position early, increase core BTC and ETH holdings, and monitor ETF fund flows as a leading indicator.
V. Practical Recommendations
First, reassess risk exposure.
In the current macro environment of “higher rates for longer,” crypto-asset volatility will rise systematically. It is recommended that crypto-asset allocations be kept within tolerable levels and that leverage of more than 3x be avoided.
Second, monitor the sustainability of the “currency debasement trade.” Bitcoin’s high correlation with gold is the market’s core narrative at present. Investors should also monitor gold prices, the U.S. Dollar Index—which has currently risen to 101.0—and the U.S. Treasury’s Treasury buyback operations. If the dollar continues to strengthen, Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative will face a test.
Third, use volatility for grid trading. Within the wide $75,000-$90,000 range, grid-trading strategies can effectively capture gains from volatility. It is recommended that funds be divided into 5-8 levels, with buy and sell orders placed at key support levels ($76,000 and $78,000) and resistance levels ($84,000 and $87,000).
Fourth, closely track the 10-year Treasury yield. The current yield of 5.20% is already near the “critical dividing line” warned of by Bank of America chief strategist Hartnett. If the 30-year yield remains firmly above 5.5%, global risk assets will face systematic revaluation pressure, and the crypto market will find it difficult to remain unaffected.
Fifth, remain sensitive to policy signals.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has consistently emphasized reducing the central bank’s footprint in the market, meaning the Federal Reserve has limited willingness to intervene in long-term rates. Investors should focus more on the Treasury’s debt-issuance structure and buyback operations, rather than merely watching the Federal Reserve’s rate decisions.
The crypto market in September 2026 is at a delicate balance point.
On one hand, the Federal Reserve’s resumption of rate hikes and surging Treasury yields are creating tangible liquidity pressure;
on the other hand, the resurgence of the “currency debasement trade” is providing Bitcoin with solid structural buying support. The tug-of-war between these two forces means the market is unlikely to see a one-way trend over the coming months, with wide-ranging consolidation becoming the norm.
For investors, this is both a challenge and an opportunity. In the complex environment where “higher rates for longer” coexist with “fiscal deficit monetization,” the simple strategy of “buy and hold” will no longer be effective. Sophisticated position management and the ability to capture macro signals with precision will become key sources of excess returns.
Bitcoin is evolving from a “speculative asset” into a “macro-hedging asset,” and the growing pains of this evolution are the cycle that every market participant must navigate. $BTC ‌

#Marvell涨4.5% Today was a typical divergence day for U.S. stocks: “the broader market fell while AI hardware rose”—the three major indexes closed slightly lower, but the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gained 1.32%, Marvell rose 4.5%, optical communications company Lumentum gained 5%, Applied Materials rose 5%, and ARM/Meta/Coherent gained more than 3%.
The nature of this AI hardware rally has changed: it has entered the second stage of “full supply-chain expansion” from “Nvidia standing alone” (memory, optical communications, custom chips, and equipment are all rising together)—a characteristic of the main upward phase, but also one that means valuations are beginning to rise across the board, making stock selection more difficult.
In the short term, Micron’s earnings report (after market close tonight) will be the “touchstone” for this rally.

I. Why AI hardware rose against the trend today: three drivers
Driver 1: Rising expectations for Micron’s earnings report (memory pricing power). Micron will release its earnings after market close tonight, and all seven investment banks are bullish—the memory/HBM segment has the “highest certainty” in AI hardware, prompting funds to move in early. Micron’s 1% gain and SK hynix’s 2% gain today were a preview.
Driver 2: Expectations for Marvell’s “Analyst Day” (custom chips). The direct reason for Marvell’s 4.5% rise is that its October 6 Analyst Day is approaching—the market expects the company to provide growth guidance for AI custom chips (Chiplet/interconnects) and break through the psychological $250 threshold in one move. Marvell has risen 210% year to date and is a core name in the “custom ASIC + data-center interconnect” sector.
Driver 3: New demand-side data (Anthropic×SpaceX).
Pre-market news: The computing-power agreement between Anthropic and SpaceX is worth up to $84.5 billion, nearly double the amount previously disclosed—“AI companies buying computing power” has received another major order, directly supporting valuations across the entire hardware chain.

II. The essence of this rally: entering the “expansion phase”

A comparison makes it clear that the market has entered a new phase:
Stage 1 (July-August): Nvidia rose alone, AI = GPU
​Stage 2 (now): optical communications (Lumentum/Coherent/Ciena), memory (Micron/SK hynix/SanDisk), custom chips (Marvell/Broadcom), equipment (Applied Materials/ASML), Meta (AI applications)—the entire supply chain is rising broadly

The “expansion phase” has two implications:
1. A healthy bull-market signal: Funds are moving from “leaders” to “shovel sellers,” indicating that the AI narrative has shifted from “concept” to “orders being fulfilled across the entire supply chain”—more solid than betting solely on Nvidia
​2. A risk signal: When “catch-up stocks” (glass companies such as Corning) also begin surging, the rally often enters its middle-to-late stages—the current market is starting to feel like “everyone is an AI stock”

III. Three risks to watch closely
Risk 1: There is little room for disappointment with Marvell. “Valuations have left little room for disappointment”—MRVL is up 210% year to date, and if the guidance at the October 6 Analyst Day is lackluster, the pullback will be very fast.
Risk 2: Micron’s earnings are a “known event.” A unanimous bullish view among investment banks means expectations are fully priced in—meeting expectations in tonight’s earnings report would merely be “passing,” while missing expectations would mean a “double hit”; it will determine the near-term direction of the entire memory sector, and even AI hardware.
Risk 3: The macro factors remain. Although the market has lowered expectations for an October rate hike (after the data), elevated U.S. Treasury yields and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report have not disappeared—AI hardware’s high valuations are most vulnerable to rising interest rates.$MRVL ‌