#黄金突破4100美元 #WCTCS9 Gold prices surge for consecutive sessions, breaking above $4,100. What comes next?
The gold market has finally seen a forceful rebound. After a sharp correction, gold suddenly gained momentum on November 4, rising 3.4% in a single day—its biggest one-day gain since August 19. Buying enthusiasm continued into November 5, with international spot gold climbing further, reclaiming $4,100/oz and reaching a new high for the period since October 20.
As of 15:00 Beijing time on November 5, international spot gold was trading at $4,123.71/oz, up about 1.6% on the day; the December COMEX gold futures contract was trading at $4,133/oz.
What exactly has driven gold's strong rebound over two consecutive trading sessions?
On the surface, the U.S. midterm elections have shifted market sentiment, with the dollar and Treasury yields both retreating and creating room for gold to rise. But a closer look reveals several factors working at once behind this rebound: changes in the U.S. political landscape, the possibility of a turning point in the U.S.-Iran conflict, consecutive declines in oil prices, and market repricing of the Fed's future monetary policy.
Can gold continue to rise from here? Is above $4,100 a level worth chasing?
Today, we'll analyze the market from several angles: fundamentals, geopolitics, interest rate policy, institutional views, and technical structure.
Gold rises for two straight days, with $4,100 once again a battleground between bulls and bears
First, let's look at the market. On November 4, the international gold market staged a strong rebound. According to Reuters, spot gold rose about 3.4% that day, its strongest one-day performance since August. On November 5, gold did not immediately pull back but extended its upward momentum.
First, it has reclaimed the $4,000 threshold. During the earlier correction, $4,000 was an important battleground between bulls and bears. As this rebound unfolded, gold not only reclaimed this round-number level but also moved further above $4,100. This indicates that buying support at lower levels is recovering, and short-covering along with new long positions may have jointly driven the price rebound.
Second, the dollar and Treasury yields weakened in tandem. Following the release of the U.S. midterm election results, the dollar index extended its decline, most recently falling to around 101.25, down a further 0.22% from the previous session and at its lowest level since September 30. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 4.5 basis points to 4.847%, its lowest level since September 10. The dollar's decline and the pullback in Treasury yields have reinforced each other, directly improving the environment for gold.
Third, gold's rise is beginning to shift from event-driven moves toward validation by fundamentals. The rapid gains over the past two trading sessions were driven mainly by market repricing following the U.S. election results. But whether the rally can continue will depend on whether the dollar keeps weakening, Treasury yields remain lower, and U.S. employment data alter expectations for Fed policy.
My view is that gold has clearly strengthened in the short term, but after consecutive sharp gains, the market has entered a phase in which the quality of the rally needs to be tested. Rising quickly is one thing; holding those gains is another.
Trump loses his advantage in Congress. Why is the dollar under continued pressure?
The most direct catalyst for gold's latest rise is still the U.S. midterm elections. On November 4, as the results became clearer, Democrats won control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives, significantly changing the governing environment for the Trump administration over the next two years. This affects gold in two main ways. Uncertainty around future U.S. policy is increasing.
Previously, the Trump administration had a relatively favorable political environment for advancing fiscal, trade, and industrial policies. But with Democrats regaining control of both chambers of Congress, future U.S. budgets, tax policy, trade policy, and some major industrial policies could face more resistance. This means government policies may be implemented less efficiently, while disagreements between the executive branch and Congress could increase.
For financial markets, the key issue is not which party won, but whether policy expectations have changed. As markets reassess the U.S. government's capacity for future fiscal expansion, economic growth, and the trajectory of government debt, the dollar and Treasuries may be repriced.
Markets are beginning to scale back some expectations of an aggressive U.S. foreign policy. One particularly notable impact of this election concerns the Middle East war. Markets believe that with the Trump administration having lost its advantage in Congress, political obstacles to further military escalation could increase. Reuters reported that after the U.S. election results were announced, the dollar weakened further and oil prices fell for a fourth consecutive session. Some market participants believe Democratic control of Congress could constrain the U.S. government's ability to expand military action against Iran. However, a change in congressional power does not mean the U.S. president immediately loses authority over diplomatic and military action. The executive branch still has corresponding powers over foreign policy and military decisions. Markets are therefore trading a change in the probability of further escalation, not the end of the war.
From gold's perspective, this political shift has produced an interesting result: domestic political uncertainty in the U.S. has risen, but concerns about further expansion of the military conflict in the Middle East have eased. These two forces have jointly weakened the dollar and lowered Treasury yields, providing momentum for gold.
Oil prices have fallen consecutively—is that ultimately bullish or bearish for gold?
The situation in the Middle East has been an important risk variable for the gold market for some time. On November 5, the oil market saw a development worth noting. Reuters reported that Brent crude futures fell 0.85% to $93.82/barrel, while U.S. WTI crude fell 1.36% to $86.92/barrel. Before that, Brent and WTI crude had already plunged by more than 8% in a single day, and oil prices had weakened for a fourth consecutive session.
Why did oil prices suddenly fall? The core reason is that markets are reassessing the possibility of the U.S. and Iran ending their conflict. With the U.S. midterm election results in, the Trump administration is facing domestic political pressure, and markets believe its ability to expand military action may be constrained. Meanwhile, crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to near pre-conflict levels. Although transport costs remain high, the recovery in supply has brought a surplus back to the global oil market.
JPMorgan estimates that the global oil market returned to a surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day in September, widening further to 1.4 million barrels per day in October.
For gold, falling oil prices have two sides. On the one hand, they are positive for gold. Lower energy prices mean inflationary pressure could ease in the future. If energy costs continue to decline, U.S. inflation could get some relief, potentially reducing the need for the Fed to keep interest rates high. If markets once again lower their expectations for future rates, the dollar and real Treasury yields could come under pressure, giving gold fresh support.
On the other hand, falling oil prices could also reduce gold's safe-haven premium. If U.S.-Iran negotiations make substantive progress and military tensions gradually ease, concerns about geopolitical risk could decline. Some investors who bought gold because of the risk of war may choose to take profits.
So falling oil prices are not simply bullish or bearish for gold. The key is whether they affect the Fed through lower inflation expectations or reduce safe-haven demand by easing geopolitical risks. For now, markets are pricing in the prospect of easing tensions, but a real agreement remains some distance away. Reuters cited Eurasia Group's assessment that the current probability of the U.S. striking Iran again is estimated at 60%, the probability of reaching an agreement at 10%, and the probability of a prolonged stalemate at 30%. These are institutional scenario estimates, not outcomes that have already occurred. The situation in the Middle East therefore remains a variable that cannot be ignored in the gold market outlook.
Why have expectations of a December rate hike risen instead?
This is the part of today's gold market that merits the closest analysis. Normally, a weaker dollar and falling Treasury yields are both clear positives for gold. But the market has not significantly abandoned expectations of a Fed rate hike. The Fed also stated clearly in its announcement that economic activity in the U.S. continues to expand at a solid pace and domestic consumption remains resilient, while inflation is still elevated. The Fed has not entered a clearly defined easing cycle.
A Reuters report on November 5 cited CME FedWatch data showing that markets priced in an 80.7% probability of the Fed raising rates by at least 25 basis points in December, up from 77.4% the previous session. This data should ring alarm bells for gold bulls. Why are rate-hike expectations rising even as the dollar falls and gold rises? Because this decline in the dollar and Treasury yields has been driven more by the U.S. midterm election results and market position adjustments than by a sudden dovish shift in Fed policy. From an interest-rate trading perspective, markets remain concerned that a resilient U.S. economy and renewed inflationary pressures could force the Fed to keep monetary policy tight for longer. If expectations of further rate hikes strengthen, the dollar and Treasury yields could rebound, putting renewed pressure on gold. In my view, gold's biggest current obstacle is not a lack of positive drivers, but the still-hawkish outlook for Fed policy. This could become increasingly important over the next few trading sessions.
Strong ADP figures; inflationary pressures remain!
Besides the Fed meeting, recent U.S. economic data also warrant attention.
On November 4, ADP released its October private-sector employment data. The report showed that the U.S. private sector added 86k jobs in October, above the 69k expected by economists surveyed by Reuters and unchanged from the revised 86k jobs added in September. This indicates that the U.S. labor market is not as weak as markets had previously feared. Employment remains resilient, suggesting that household income and consumption may continue to be supported, and that the Fed will be more cautious when setting interest rates.
However, ADP is not the same as the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' nonfarm payrolls report, and the two have diverged significantly at times historically. The nonfarm payrolls trend cannot be determined on the basis of ADP data alone. Meanwhile, the U.S. ISM Services PMI came in at 54.5 in October, below September's 54.9 and slightly under the market's previous expectation of 54.8. The services employment index was 51.4, still in expansion territory; the prices index was 73, down from 74 in September but still relatively elevated after an extended period.
This reflects a fairly complex economic environment: the U.S. services sector continues to expand, employment has not deteriorated significantly, but price pressures remain stubborn. For gold, this means short-term monetary policy expectations may continue to fluctuate. Two important data releases are coming up.
On November 5, the U.S. will release initial jobless claims, as well as third-quarter nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs. According to the U.S. Eastern Time schedule, these data are expected to be released at 21:30 Beijing time on November 5, so they are not yet among the data released by the 15:00 cutoff.
On November 6, that is, this Friday, the U.S. will release its October nonfarm payrolls report. Economists surveyed by Reuters expect U.S. nonfarm employment to increase by about 65k in October, with the unemployment rate remaining around 4.2%. The importance of this report is clear. If nonfarm payrolls are significantly stronger than expected, markets may further strengthen rate-hike expectations, weighing on gold. If payrolls are significantly weaker, prompting markets to reassess the U.S. employment and economic outlook, gold could gain fresh upward momentum. Before the payrolls report is released, markets are likely to remain somewhat cautious.
After breaking above $4,100, $4,146 and $4,200 become key levels
Next, let's focus on the technical picture. On November 5, gold reclaimed $4,100 and broke through the key resistance zone at $4,083 cited in an earlier technical tracking report by the World Gold Council, indicating that the downward pressure seen previously is easing.
However, in terms of the broader medium-term structure, it is too early to conclude that gold has completed a trend reversal. Based on recent market action and the technical analysis published by the World Gold Council on November 2, several key levels are worth watching.
1. First resistance above: $4,146
$4,146 is an important resistance level in the World Gold Council's technical reference. Gold is currently trading around $4,120, not far from $4,146. If gold continues to rise and breaks above $4,146 decisively, short-term bullish momentum could strengthen further. But if it fails to break through $4,146 after several attempts, be alert to concentrated profit-taking at higher levels.
2. Second resistance: $4,199–$4,200. $4,200 is an important round-number threshold.
Given the current upward structure, if $4,146 is decisively broken, $4,199–$4,200 will be the next key zone to watch. It is not only a technical resistance level but also a psychologically significant round-number threshold. After a rapid short-term rise, volatility or even a pullback in this area would not be surprising.
3. First support below: $4,083
$4,083 was previously an important resistance level. Now that gold has reclaimed it, the question is whether it can turn from resistance into support. If gold pulls back to around $4,083 and holds, that would indicate the rally has some staying power. A break below $4,083 would suggest the breakout may lack sufficient buying support.
4. Second support below: $4,026–$4,000
If $4,083 fails, the next levels to watch are around $4,026 and the $4,000 round-number threshold. $4,000 remains an important psychological dividing line for this gold market. As long as prices do not fall and stay below $4,000, the short- to medium-term rebound structure could remain intact.
5. Medium-term trend confirmation: around $4,275
The World Gold Council's November 2 technical report also noted that gold may establish a firmer medium-term bottom if it can reclaim the 55-day moving average at around $4,275. Note that this moving-average level was a reference value at the time the report was published, not a live moving average for November 5.
Overall, bulls have regained some advantage in the short term, but the risk of volatility at higher levels should not be ignored after consecutive gains. Whether gold can hold above $4,083 decisively matters more than whether it briefly touches $4,200 intraday.
What do institutions think about gold's outlook? Is a $4,500 target still possible?
Institutional views suggest that there are still strong voices in favor of gold over the medium to long term. In a Reuters report on November 5, XScom market analyst Linh Tran said that if gold can hold above $4,000 and inflows of investment funds and yield movements continue to provide support, prices could recover further toward $4,200 and $4,400. Separately, Citi's 0–3-month gold target, issued on November 4, was $4,500/oz. Citi believes that if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz recovers further and the conflict between Yemen and Saudi Arabia eases before the end of the year, gold could have more room to rise. However, these are conditional institutional forecasts, not guaranteed price targets. It is especially important to note that $4,500 is still some distance from the current gold price, and reaching it in the short term will depend on continued support from the dollar, Treasuries, and the geopolitical situation.
$XAUUSD 
