#美伊谈判陷入僵持布伦特站上106美元 US-Iran talks remain deadlocked, giving oil an offsetting variable, while gold continues to grapple with interest-rate pressure
As September enters its final trading day, the United States and Iran remain locked in a pattern of confrontation alongside indirect negotiations. Qatar and several other parties continue to mediate, but the gap between the two sides’ core demands remains significant, making a comprehensive reconciliation unlikely in the short term. On one hand, shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz have not been fully resolved, with geopolitical premiums continuing to support crude oil prices; on the other, the United States has announced the release of strategic petroleum reserves, delivering a “cooling shot” to elevated oil prices. With these two forces offsetting each other, crude oil has entered a period of high-level volatility. Gold, meanwhile, remains caught between risk-aversion sentiment and high real interest rates. Repeated swings in the market have left many investors uncertain about its direction.
Crude oil pricing has never depended solely on whether a conflict escalates; it is jointly shaped by the interplay between supply risks and policy intervention.
As a global energy artery, the Strait of Hormuz carries approximately one-fifth of the world’s seaborne crude oil. As long as the US-Iran standoff continues, the market will continue pricing in the potential risk of disruptions to the waterway, providing a floor for oil prices. On September 30, the US Department of Energy officially announced a crude oil exchange program involving the release of up to 40 million barrels from the strategic petroleum reserve. The crude is expected to be delivered in November and December, with the aim of offsetting oil price increases caused by Middle East geopolitical risks and curbing energy inflation.
One force “increases supply,” while the other “maintains risk”; after these two forces collide, crude oil is unlikely to embark on a one-way surge.
If subsequent negotiations send conciliatory signals and expectations of restored passage through the strait strengthen, with the release of reserve crude also taking effect, oil’s risk premium will fall rapidly; if negotiations collapse and maritime frictions flare up again, supply concerns will regain the upper hand and oil prices will quickly surge. For some time ahead, broad fluctuations at elevated levels will likely be crude oil’s main theme, with prices highly driven by news and reversals occurring extremely quickly.
Many people instinctively assume that geopolitical tensions will inevitably send gold sharply higher, but the market repeatedly showed in late September that this logic does not always hold.
Gold is a non-yielding asset, and US Treasury real yields and the strength of the dollar often outweigh short-term safe-haven buying. Persistently strong oil prices are stoking concerns about a rebound in inflation, prompting the market to reassess the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Expectations for interest-rate cuts are being pushed back further, Treasury yields are staying elevated, and the opportunity cost of holding gold is rising directly, continuing to constrain gold’s upside.
Of course, this does not mean gold’s safe-haven appeal has become ineffective. We need to assess the situation by scenario: if the current stalemate of “limited friction + continued diplomatic mediation” persists, interest rates will remain the main driver of gold prices, leaving limited room for a rebound; if the situation deteriorates sharply, the conflict expands, panic erupts in the market, and systemic safe-haven funds pour in, geopolitical factors will regain dominance and gold will see a strong rally.
In other words, gold is now waiting for a “qualitative shift signal.” Before that signal materializes, it will remain range-bound.
For now, we only need to closely monitor two key indicators.
First, the progress of indirect US-Iran negotiations, with a focus on whether substantive progress is made on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of sanctions, which will directly determine how long crude oil’s geopolitical premium can last.
Second, US inflation data and statements from Federal Reserve officials. Changes in interest-rate expectations are the most important factor determining gold’s medium-term direction.$XAUUSD
As September enters its final trading day, the United States and Iran remain locked in a pattern of confrontation alongside indirect negotiations. Qatar and several other parties continue to mediate, but the gap between the two sides’ core demands remains significant, making a comprehensive reconciliation unlikely in the short term. On one hand, shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz have not been fully resolved, with geopolitical premiums continuing to support crude oil prices; on the other, the United States has announced the release of strategic petroleum reserves, delivering a “cooling shot” to elevated oil prices. With these two forces offsetting each other, crude oil has entered a period of high-level volatility. Gold, meanwhile, remains caught between risk-aversion sentiment and high real interest rates. Repeated swings in the market have left many investors uncertain about its direction.
Crude oil pricing has never depended solely on whether a conflict escalates; it is jointly shaped by the interplay between supply risks and policy intervention.
As a global energy artery, the Strait of Hormuz carries approximately one-fifth of the world’s seaborne crude oil. As long as the US-Iran standoff continues, the market will continue pricing in the potential risk of disruptions to the waterway, providing a floor for oil prices. On September 30, the US Department of Energy officially announced a crude oil exchange program involving the release of up to 40 million barrels from the strategic petroleum reserve. The crude is expected to be delivered in November and December, with the aim of offsetting oil price increases caused by Middle East geopolitical risks and curbing energy inflation.
One force “increases supply,” while the other “maintains risk”; after these two forces collide, crude oil is unlikely to embark on a one-way surge.
If subsequent negotiations send conciliatory signals and expectations of restored passage through the strait strengthen, with the release of reserve crude also taking effect, oil’s risk premium will fall rapidly; if negotiations collapse and maritime frictions flare up again, supply concerns will regain the upper hand and oil prices will quickly surge. For some time ahead, broad fluctuations at elevated levels will likely be crude oil’s main theme, with prices highly driven by news and reversals occurring extremely quickly.
Many people instinctively assume that geopolitical tensions will inevitably send gold sharply higher, but the market repeatedly showed in late September that this logic does not always hold.
Gold is a non-yielding asset, and US Treasury real yields and the strength of the dollar often outweigh short-term safe-haven buying. Persistently strong oil prices are stoking concerns about a rebound in inflation, prompting the market to reassess the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Expectations for interest-rate cuts are being pushed back further, Treasury yields are staying elevated, and the opportunity cost of holding gold is rising directly, continuing to constrain gold’s upside.
Of course, this does not mean gold’s safe-haven appeal has become ineffective. We need to assess the situation by scenario: if the current stalemate of “limited friction + continued diplomatic mediation” persists, interest rates will remain the main driver of gold prices, leaving limited room for a rebound; if the situation deteriorates sharply, the conflict expands, panic erupts in the market, and systemic safe-haven funds pour in, geopolitical factors will regain dominance and gold will see a strong rally.
In other words, gold is now waiting for a “qualitative shift signal.” Before that signal materializes, it will remain range-bound.
For now, we only need to closely monitor two key indicators.
First, the progress of indirect US-Iran negotiations, with a focus on whether substantive progress is made on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of sanctions, which will directly determine how long crude oil’s geopolitical premium can last.
Second, US inflation data and statements from Federal Reserve officials. Changes in interest-rate expectations are the most important factor determining gold’s medium-term direction.$XAUUSD
