#加密市场观察 FOMC July meeting preview: Are rate hikes near or far away?
The Federal Reserve will hold an FOMC meeting on July 28 and 29 in the Eastern Time zone of the U.S., and the interest rate decision will land at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on July 30. Affected by recent turmoil in the Middle East, the risk of an inflation rebound has risen somewhat, which may also make this policy meeting a key focus for funds this week.
First segment: Market outlook expectations — referencing CME Fed Watch data
FedWatch is a free tool launched by the CME Group. By relying on trading data of interest rate futures, it calculates the probabilities of interest rate changes. Through observation of this data, we can often understand how market funds are betting on the Fed’s interest rate direction.
CME FedWatch July rate-hike probability: Currently, the U.S. federal funds rate remains in the 3.5%-3.75% range. Based on today’s market pricing, the probability that this meeting will raise the rate to 3.75%-4% (a 25bp hike) is 37.9%, and market expectations for a rate hike are still edging higher.
Second segment: The biggest change! The interpretation logic in the Waller and Powell era is completely different
During the tenure of former Chair Powell, he was accustomed to releasing guided signals and was willing to hint to the market, so people could infer a rough timetable for where rates might go in the future.
But after the new Chair Waller took office, the way he communicates has changed noticeably: he deliberately stays cautious, refuses to give advance projections about the future path of interest rates, and is also unwilling to clearly map out a rate path. Overall, policy adjustments follow economic data flexibly. Therefore, in Waller’s remarks at the July meeting press conference, we should no longer try to pick apart hints such as “in which month rate cuts will happen, in which month rate hikes will happen, and how rates will move in the future.” Instead, we should focus on the following directions: ① How Waller assesses current inflation pressures; ② His view on the current U.S. employment situation and economic resilience; ③ His thinking about future Fed reform and the progress so far. A rundown of Waller’s recently stated public views (July 15 — Senate hearing):
"I’m not satisfied with any inflation indicator."
"The labor market looks quite good, but inflation is not so optimistic."
"We will review our tools, including the balance sheet and interest rates, to see whether adjustments are needed to address inflation."
"The fact that the inflation rate has been consistently above the 2% target over the past five years is itself the Fed’s failure to do its job, and we must maintain zero tolerance for persistently high inflation."
"Tools to curb inflation include interest rate tools, and we have the ability to do this."……
Third segment: Pin down inflation — the U.S. June PCE data
PCE is the Fed’s core inflation gauge. The latest data for this round will be released at the same time on the evening of the 30th. Another inflation observation indicator, June CPI, has already shown a downward trend due to prior adjustments in oil prices. U.S. June core PCE price index month-over-month: previous 0.3% forecast 0.2% actual ? (to be released at 20:30 on July 30)

$BTC ‌
#StrategyInitiatesSTRCBuyback
Strategy Inc., the world's largest corporate Bitcoin treasury holder, has launched the first repurchase under its Digital Credit Securities Repurchase Program, signaling a strategic effort to reinforce its preferred equity structure. On July 27, 2026, the company confirmed it bought back 288,930 shares of its Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock (STRC) for approximately $25.0 million, paying an average of $86.52 per share. These purchases were completed through open-market transactions between July 20 and July 26, 2026.
THE PURPOSE BEHIND THE MOVE
The STRC repurchase forms part of Strategy's Digital Credit Capital Framework, introduced on June 29, 2026. The framework was created to strengthen the company's preferred securities, improve liquidity, maintain long-term Bitcoin exposure, and support shareholder value. It consists of five major elements: a USD Reserve Policy, a STRC dividend policy, a Digital Credit Securities repurchase authorization, a Class A common stock (MSTR) repurchase authorization, and a BTC monetization program.
WHY STRC WAS TARGETED
STRC has traded significantly below its $100 par value, reaching a record low near $75 in late June. By repurchasing shares at an average price of $86.52, Strategy is retiring preferred equity below face value while reducing future dividend obligations. To improve investor demand, the company also increased the STRC dividend rate from 11.5% to 12% for all record dates beginning July 1, 2026, encouraging the market price to move closer to par.
BITCOIN REMAINS THE FOUNDATION
Despite focusing on its preferred securities, Strategy continues to hold one of the largest Bitcoin positions in the world. The company owns 843,775 BTC acquired at an average cost of $75,476 per Bitcoin, representing a total acquisition value of approximately $63.69 billion. With Bitcoin trading near $65,000, Strategy reported an unrealized digital asset loss of roughly $8.32 billion during the second quarter, though management continues to view Bitcoin as its long-term treasury reserve asset.
CAPITAL MOVES DURING THE WEEK
Alongside the STRC buyback, Strategy sold 5,429,160 shares of Class A common stock (MSTR) through its at-the-market program, generating approximately $544.5 million in net proceeds. The company also expanded its common share repurchases to 6.1 million shares, compared with 5.5 million during the previous week. Meanwhile, its USD Reserve increased from $3.225 billion to $3.75 billion as of July 26. Management confirmed that these reserve funds are not being used to finance the STRC repurchase program.
FINANCIAL FLEXIBILITY
Following the initial repurchase, approximately $975 million remains available under the Digital Credit Securities Repurchase Program. Strategy has also scheduled its Q2 2026 earnings webinar for July 30, where investors are expected to receive additional updates on capital allocation, treasury strategy, and preferred securities.
INVESTOR SENTIMENT
Reports indicate that several distressed-debt investors have explored exchanging STRC holdings for alternative securities, reflecting continued concerns about the preferred capital structure. Even so, Strategy's combination of discounted buybacks, higher dividend payments, and an expanding cash reserve demonstrates a clear effort to strengthen confidence in its preferred equity while preserving long-term financial flexibility.
FINAL TAKEAWAY
Strategy's latest capital allocation decisions show a more defensive approach during the July 20–26 period. Instead of adding more Bitcoin, the company prioritized strengthening its balance sheet through STRC repurchases, increasing cash reserves, and supporting preferred shareholders. Even with short-term market pressure, management continues to maintain its long-term conviction in Bitcoin while improving the stability of its broader capital structure.
@Gate_Square