#美联储卡什卡利称通胀仍过高 🔥 Kashkari continues to take a hawkish stance, with the probability of a rate hike in October rising to 56.5%, yet BTC has broken through $82,828! Have the macro headwinds been priced in?
Trading focus:
$BTC $ETH $SOL $MSTR Do you remember the Fed rate hike post I wrote a few days ago?
My core judgment at the time was: The September rate hike had already been delivered, and what would truly determine the market's next move was whether the market would start pricing in a “second rate hike.”
Now, that expectation has actually arrived.
Kashkari recently said that U.S. inflation remains too high, and that pressure has spread from energy to the services sector; the market's probability of another 25 BP rate hike in October has also risen to 56.5%.
Under normal logic:
Rising rate hike expectations → U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar strengthen → liquidity comes under pressure → risk assets such as BTC and U.S. stocks come under pressure.
But today's market has shown a very interesting change:
BTC did not continue falling; instead, it broke through the $82,828 level I had been watching closely!
The current GATE spot price has reached around $85.7k.
This has made me rethink: Has the market already priced in a considerable portion of the macro headwinds?
📊 I. What deserves the most attention is not 56.5%, but how BTC responds
The rise in the probability of an October rate hike to 56.5% is certainly a risk signal.
But “rising probability” does not equal “a rate hike is already certain.”
More importantly: After learning of this negative news, does BTC actually fall?
If the news becomes increasingly hawkish but BTC becomes increasingly resistant to further declines, or even directly breaks through previous technical resistance, that may indicate that selling pressure is weakening.
After BTC broke through $82,000 yesterday, it briefly touched around $86,000 and triggered approximately $750 million in short liquidations.
This shows that, in addition to spot buying, this rally was also clearly driven by short covering.
So I will not simply say now: “The Fed is hawkish, so BTC must fall.”
What I want to see is whether macro headwinds can continue pushing the price down.
🎯 II. $82,828 has been broken through, and the next real test has arrived
The $82,828 level I previously marked as a key level on the TV weekly chart has now been broken through.
So the trading logic has now changed:
$82,828 is no longer just resistance; it has begun to enter the validation stage of “whether it can become support after the breakout.”
If BTC can remain stable above $82,828 and hold it on a pullback, I will significantly raise my assessment of the validity of this breakout.
According to my TV chart, the next key resistance zone is currently: $89,200–$90,600.
So the key question for BTC next is no longer: “Can $82,828 be broken through?”
It is: “After the breakout, can it continue advancing toward $89,200–$90,600?”
⚠️ III. But I will not directly declare the bull market's return just because of the breakout
The reason is simple: This rally has been clearly driven by short covering.
If BTC continues rising while OI increases rapidly but spot trading volume does not expand in tandem, I will instead start to be alert to leverage building up again.
So I am now paying closer attention to three signals:
1. Can the price hold $82,828?
2. Is OI healthy during the rise?
3. Is there obvious selling pressure around $89,200–$90,600?
If, around $89,200–$90,600, we see: a surge → a high-volume pullback → OI continuing to increase, I will guard against a short-term top formation.
If, after the breakout, we see: a pullback that holds → low-volume consolidation → another high-volume advance, then the trend will be worth continuing to monitor.
💡 IV. From a macro perspective, I am now instead watching a contrarian indicator: Can the negative news still push BTC down?
This is the biggest change in my trading approach recently.
Previously, when I saw: rising rate hike probability → I would lean defensive.
Now I need to further observe: The probability of a rate hike rises, but BTC rises instead of falling.
If the probability of an October rate hike continues rising in the future while BTC still holds $82,828, or even breaks through $89,200, that would mean the market is telling us through price:
The marginal impact of macro headwinds is declining.
Conversely, if the probability of a rate hike continues rising and BTC falls back below $82,828, this breakout will need to be reassessed.
🔥 V. My practical trading approach
For now, I will not directly chase the first large bullish candle just because BTC has broken through $82,828.
I would rather wait for: breakout → pullback → hold → another volume expansion.
• If $82,828 completes its transition into support, I will continue monitoring the bullish structure.
• If obvious selling pressure appears around $89,200–$90,600, I will observe first rather than blindly chase higher.
• If macro headwinds continue strengthening and BTC falls back below $82,828, I will reduce my position and wait for a new structure.
My principle remains: Do not guess the top, and do not subjectively short just because of negative news.
There is no need to panic excessively over negative news that the price does not validate;
Only when the price truly breaks below a key structure should we follow the market in repricing.
🔥 My final judgment
I believe Kashkari's remarks this time are indeed a risk signal.
The 56.5% probability of an October rate hike also shows that the market is repricing the possibility of “consecutive rate hikes.”
But what is more interesting now is that the Fed continues to take a hawkish stance, while BTC has broken through $82,828.
So what truly deserves attention next is not “whether the Fed is hawkish,” but:
Whether BTC can withstand the $89,200–$90,600 area.
If it can break through and confirm the level on a pullback, I will further raise my assessment of trend continuation;
If the rally fails there and OI is overheated, I will guard against a pullback.
So my trading logic has now evolved from:
“An October rate hike means guarding against a BTC decline” to: “The macro backdrop is bearish, but price is strong; first watch the $82,828 support, then watch for a breakout of $89,200–$90,600.”
This is what I most want to trade now.
How do you think BTC will move next?
A. Break through $89,200–$90,600 and continue higher 🚀
B. Meet resistance around $89,200 and first pull back to $82,828
C. Rate hike expectations continue heating up, and BTC falls back below $82,828 📉
D. Do not guess the direction; wait for a pullback confirmation before taking a right-side trade
Leave A / B / C / D in the comments and share whether you think BTC can break through $90,000.👇
#美联储决议 (The above content was compiled based on public market information, GATE market data, and my personal trading system. It is for discussion and exchange only and does not constitute investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile; please make independent judgments and strictly control your position size and risk.)
