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#加密市场观察 July FOMC Meeting Preview: Will Hikes Be Near or Far?
The Federal Reserve will hold its FOMC meeting on July 28 and 29 in U.S. Eastern Time, with the interest rate decision set to be released at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on July 30. Affected by the turmoil in the Middle East, the risk of an inflation rebound has recently increased, which may also make this policy meeting the key focal point for funds this week.
First section: Market preview expectations — referencing CME Fed Watch
FedWatch is a free tool launched by the CME, which uses interest rate futures trading data to calculate probabilities of rate changes. By observing this data, we can often gauge how market funds are betting on the Federal Reserve’s rate path.
CME Fed Watch July rate hike probability: The current target range for the U.S. federal funds rate is 3.5%-3.75%. Based on current market pricing, the probability that this meeting will raise the rate to 3.75%-4% (a 25bp hike) is 37.9%, and the market’s expectation for a hike continues to edge higher.
Second section: The biggest change! The interpretation logic is completely different between the eras of Waller and Powell
In the time of the prior chair, Powell, he was accustomed to releasing guiding signals and was willing to hint to the market, so people could use that to infer a rough timeline for where rates might go in the future.
But after the new chair Waller took office, the way he communicates has clearly shifted: he deliberately stays cautious, refuses to give advance predictions about the future rate path, and is also unwilling to clearly lay out a rate route. Overall, policy adjustments follow economic data more flexibly. Therefore, for Waller’s remarks in the July rate-setting meeting press conference, we should not try to hard-parse hints like “which month they will cut, which month they will hike, and how rates will move in the future.” Instead, we should focus on the following directions:
① how Waller assesses current inflation pressure;
② his stance on the current state of U.S. employment and economic resilience;
③ his thinking on future Federal Reserve reforms and the current progress.
A roundup of viewpoints Waller publicly stated recently (July 15 — Senate hearing):
"I am not satisfied with any inflation indicator."
"The labor market looks quite good, but inflation is not so optimistic."
"We will examine our tools, including the balance sheet and interest rates, to see whether adjustments are needed to respond to inflation."
"Having inflation run consistently above the 2% target for the past five years is itself a failure on the part of the Federal Reserve, and we must have zero tolerance for persistently elevated inflation."
"Tools to curb inflation include interest rate tools, and we have the capacity to do so."......
Third section: Locking in inflation — U.S. June PCE data
PCE is the Federal Reserve’s core inflation gauge. The latest data for this period will be released on the night of the 30th. Another inflation observation indicator, the June CPI, has already shown a downward trend due to the earlier adjustment in oil prices. For the U.S. June core PCE price index, the month-over-month figure: prior value 0.3%, expectation 0.2%, actual ? (to be published at 20:30 on July 30)
The Federal Reserve will hold an FOMC meeting on July 28 and 29 in the Eastern Time zone of the U.S., and the interest rate decision will land at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on July 30. Affected by recent turmoil in the Middle East, the risk of an inflation rebound has risen somewhat, which may also make this policy meeting a key focus for funds this week.
First segment: Market outlook expectations — referencing CME Fed Watch data
FedWatch is a free tool launched by the CME Group. By relying on trading data of interest rate futures, it calculates the probabilities of interest rate changes. Through observation of this data, we can often understand how market funds are betting on the Fed’s interest rate direction.
CME FedWatch July rate-hike probability: Currently, the U.S. federal funds rate remains in the 3.5%-3.75% range. Based on today’s market pricing, the probability that this meeting will raise the rate to 3.75%-4% (a 25bp hike) is 37.9%, and market expectations for a rate hike are still edging higher.
Second segment: The biggest change! The interpretation logic in the Waller and Powell era is completely different
During the tenure of former Chair Powell, he was accustomed to releasing guided signals and was willing to hint to the market, so people could infer a rough timetable for where rates might go in the future.
But after the new Chair Waller took office, the way he communicates has changed noticeably: he deliberately stays cautious, refuses to give advance projections about the future path of interest rates, and is also unwilling to clearly map out a rate path. Overall, policy adjustments follow economic data flexibly. Therefore, in Waller’s remarks at the July meeting press conference, we should no longer try to pick apart hints such as “in which month rate cuts will happen, in which month rate hikes will happen, and how rates will move in the future.” Instead, we should focus on the following directions: ① How Waller assesses current inflation pressures; ② His view on the current U.S. employment situation and economic resilience; ③ His thinking about future Fed reform and the progress so far. A rundown of Waller’s recently stated public views (July 15 — Senate hearing):
"I’m not satisfied with any inflation indicator."
"The labor market looks quite good, but inflation is not so optimistic."
"We will review our tools, including the balance sheet and interest rates, to see whether adjustments are needed to address inflation."
"The fact that the inflation rate has been consistently above the 2% target over the past five years is itself the Fed’s failure to do its job, and we must maintain zero tolerance for persistently high inflation."
"Tools to curb inflation include interest rate tools, and we have the ability to do this."……
Third segment: Pin down inflation — the U.S. June PCE data
PCE is the Fed’s core inflation gauge. The latest data for this round will be released at the same time on the evening of the 30th. Another inflation observation indicator, June CPI, has already shown a downward trend due to prior adjustments in oil prices. U.S. June core PCE price index month-over-month: previous 0.3% forecast 0.2% actual ? (to be released at 20:30 on July 30)