#USIranTensionsOilSurges5.7%
If the congestion in the Strait of Hormuz continues, the rise could last for weeks or even months, but the current movement is likely to become much more volatile rather than just rising by 5-6% each day. As of September 2, 2026, Brent is trading around $95 and WTI around $90; it previously briefly rose to $97 and $92. Scenario Map Scenario Probable oil reaction Timeline Reducing diplomatic tensions / Strait of Hormuz blockage normalizes Brent towards $80-85 Days-weeks Current disruption continues, but shipments move Brent $90-105 Several weeks-months Strait of Hormuz blockage effectively shuts down Brent $110-130+ possible Weeks-months Wider regional conflict + sustained export losses $130-150+ risk Potentially months The key distinction is not just military headlines, but the physical number of barrels lost.
If the congestion in the Strait of Hormuz continues, the rise could last for weeks or even months, but the current movement is likely to become much more volatile rather than just rising by 5-6% each day. As of September 2, 2026, Brent is trading around $95 and WTI around $90; it previously briefly rose to $97 and $92. Scenario Map Scenario Probable oil reaction Timeline Reducing diplomatic tensions / Strait of Hormuz blockage normalizes Brent towards $80-85 Days-weeks Current disruption continues, but shipments move Brent $90-105 Several weeks-months Strait of Hormuz blockage effectively shuts down Brent $110-130+ possible Weeks-months Wider regional conflict + sustained export losses $130-150+ risk Potentially months The key distinction is not just military headlines, but the physical number of barrels lost.
