🏦 The Fed’s September minutes were hawkish, but could it hold steady in October?
The Fed’s latest meeting minutes sent a clear signal: Most officials believe one more rate hike may still be needed this year, but the market does not seem to be in a hurry.
📊 The probability of an October rate hike is below 20%, with traders more inclined to expect a pause in October and another hike in December.
The real test is still ahead—U.S. CPI is due to be released on October 14.
Can inflation continue to cool? Will a stronger U.S. dollar and higher Treasury yields further pressure BTC and other risk assets?
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#BTC Major cryptocurrencies collectively tumble, with Bitcoin testing 83k and the Fear & Greed Index at 64—will support break?
Selling pressure in the crypto market continued to intensify this week. Bitcoin fell 2.46% over 24 hours, hitting a low of 82787; Ethereum fell even more, dropping 4.39% to 2577 and breaking below the 2600 level. SOL fell 3.35% to 116.5; XRP fell 4.86% to 1.4243, with all four major cryptocurrencies weakening.
Total liquidations across the crypto derivatives market reached $712 million, with more than 123k people forcibly liquidated. The largest liquidation order appeared on the An'an ETHUSDC trading pair, amounting to as much as $26.64 million.
The sharp rise in 30-year U.S. Treasury yields dragged down U.S. stocks, and Bitcoin followed lower.
Macro news: U.S. Treasury yields hit their highest level since 2002, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes retreated from their highs. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's September meeting signaled that another rate hike may come at the end of the year, heightening risk aversion, pressuring risk assets, and affecting the crypto market.
Major cryptocurrencies broadly declined, with SOL and XRP both falling more than 3%. Capital continued to flee altcoins and move into stablecoins for safety.
BTC technicals: It closed below the Bollinger middle band, while the RSI remained neutral. The price is below the 20-day moving average but above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The bearish MACD signal strengthened.
Resistance: the 20-day moving average and the Bollinger upper band; support: the Bollinger lower band and the 50-day moving average, followed by the 30-day low.
The Fear & Greed Index has fallen to 64. Over the past eight days, the index has fluctuated between 64 and 74; it was still at 71 yesterday but pulled back today, showing that enthusiasm for chasing gains has waned, though the market has not yet reached panic levels. Macroeconomically, rising Treasury yields are weighing on risk assets, while the Federal Reserve's signal that another rate hike may come at the end of the year continues to affect market sentiment.