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huge month ahead - looks like we have a number of new model releases coming soon:
- ox alpha (glm 5.3)
- 2 new anthropic models (likely opus 5.1, haiku)
- openai Astra (this week or next)
- grok 4.7
- qwen
and i’m silently holding out for a surprise SSI launch which will make a breakthrough in continual learning
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this week nvidia will (once again) prove AI demand is accelerating with their new earnings
the information projects a 97% quarterly revenue growth with annual projections at 85% (beating 2025's 65%)
bear in mind this is happening while nvidia is raising prices of their gpus at the same time hyperscalers, neoclouds and labs are spending more than previous months.
at this point you either believe scaling ai intelligence will continue to outpace demand or that we're slowing down. nvidia is the nexus of answering this questions (all roads lead back to compute) and theres a v obvious story being to
NVDA-4.58%
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these robot olympics videos are such a magnificent improvement over last year - it concerns me how good china (and asia in general) is in hardware vs. the USA.
these things broke multiple world records this weekend.
with robotics, memory and energy generation - asia leads the US. this matters more in the interim where hardware scaling will dictate intelligence (embodied or not) over the next decade.
chinese open models are continuing to keep up with the U.S.
no wonder nvidia has invested 9 billion into building their own open model.
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whatever the hell Ox Alpha ends up being - how cool is it that we have 8+ labs churning out frontier models every 2-3 weeks now?
a year ago there were just 2 labs and openai had a huge lead.
abundance of models at varying costs, closed and open is a great world to be in
best timeline
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taiwan is close to passing an AI dividend bill that pay's it's citizens $314 each as its stock market surged 60% thanks to tsmc exports.
taiwan's population is 23,400,000 people which would equate to about $7.4 billion
this would be the 1st of its kind enforced by a nation state, the reasoning seems to be because they've seen a huge divide in wealth between AI workers and regular non-ai employees (permanent underclass?)
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anthropic's new $65 billion ARR took google 16 years to get to, amazon 18 years and apple 30 years.
anthropic's done this in 5 years (after making no money in the first 2 years btw)
it doesn't matter what your politics are in this race, that is staggering growth
AMZN3.98%
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Salman104:
absolutely growing up fast
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Stripe preparing a $7 billion acquisition of OpenRouter 2 days after the $60B Cursor acquisition closed.
i will keep yelling this: routing platforms (picking which models do the work) are insanely undervalued - especially in a world of 100s of models
what’s more valuable than the most intelligent model? knowing when to use it and for the best price-per-token.
they also naturally have a data moat around user behaviour - very valuable to training future models.
congrats openrouter
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i want to be clear - the reason why products like cursor, grok bot @bot, cloud agents, harnesses are popular is because they make the ai experience so much more enjoyable and useful
the chatbot llm hype has been saturated, people expect increasingly more out of their ai agent. the #1 focus should be tool-use and action-based products
thats why zuck said he's trying to build the best personal agent, thats why elon says he wants to build a human emulator, thats why cursor is launching routers and cloud agents.
anyone that lives outside of sf does not give a damn whether a model solves the jacobi
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anthropic just became the 1st profitable ai lab (according to bloomberg)
they made $11.5 billion in Q2, up 14x in a year and 2.5x since q1. rumored ipo in september.
if this is true then they're annual ARR will far exceed $100B+ by december. which means a $2-3 trillion+ valuation is not actually that far-fetched.
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multiple ai trends converging at once:
- intelligent models are getting much much cheaper (both open and closed)
- tokens are being served at blistering speeds aka you get your answer quicker (eg cerebras for gpt 5.6)
- agentic coding is the new default coding and it’s amazing
- agent harness + post training has become more important than the pre-train
- memory compute and data demand has accelerated.
we are in the roaring 20’s
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the rave reviews for grok bot tells me people were dying for an ai agent that actually gets shit done.
@bot proves you never needed the most intelligent model, you just needs multiple cost-efficient agents working intelligently *together*
also regular people = aren’t technical at all but want to rid themselves of tedious shit like email admin, support tickets, filing documentation, renewing subscriptions etc
grok bot isn’t a remarkable ai model, it’s a remarkable *ai experience*.
the demos and community reviews are nothing but praise.
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i feel like AI’s going to cause some cataclysmic event before end of 2026
between the hugging face hack, anthropic’s mythos supply chain attack and multiple chinese labs training 5-10T open models - there’s a strong probability these models will be used for some sort of major attack attack (theft, data leak, credential hack etc)
do people understand these models are going to be accessible by *anyone* in <2 months?
it’s not just some dumb open claw agent that hacks some gym website to book you a class - these models are becoming highly capable.
the ramifications of that are going to be nuts. e
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hyperscalers blowing trillions on capex are about to have a rude awakening
over 200 data center bans were made effective in the last 30 days bringing the total to 500 across america
- majority of bans are in the midwest and southern states
- reasoning cites fears of expensive electricity bills and water scarcity
this is a huge problem for the USA.
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the challenge with the ai memory investment is a lot of the bull case is priced in:
everyone knows supply is sold out till EPY 2027, everyone knows infra will require more memory. but there are other issues:
- the margins manufacturers are making is primarily on price hikes, not volume.
- prices can’t keep going up forever, so revenue growth will decelerate.
- capacity cannot be expanded until 2030. we’re at the limit. any available capacity till then is priced.
so you need a brand new catalyst no ones thought of. this could be RSI, otg oai and anthropic research suggests we’re close.
if yo
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there it is - google deepmind's chief strategy officer telling us where the next catalyst for AI is: recursive self improvement
i've been banging the drum on this for a while now but the existing "demand for ai" has been priced in - what hasn't is a model's ability to build a better version of itself
humans struggle to imagine an exponential future and the irony is thats exactly the trajectory ai has been on and its getting even crazier:
just look at how quickly these models are improving, look at how fast the chinese models are catching up, gpt 6 is around the corner, anthropic already has an
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dear god - so leopold was levered 4x on the entire fund and now forced to sell to its entire public portfolio including the majority to citadel
from $200M -> $20B+ -> 50%+ drawdown in the last 30 days.
one of the craziest drawdowns i’ve ever seen.
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if you’re an american frontier AI company watching - cursor getting acquired for $60B, Openrouter fielding a $10B offer from stripe, meta/ramp building model router platforms and chinese open source completely dominating usage in USA:
you have to be thinking about how to build / acquire this in-house. a start would be asking “less intelligent” models to do a hard task you only thought fable/gpt 5.6 could do and seeing how far it gets.
microsoft’s started doing this, openai’s doing it internally between luna, terra and sol.
start of a big trend.
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