A Brief Analysis of BTC’s Short-Term Trend from Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, Volume-Price Relations, Order Flow, and Price Action (Strategy Recommendations)
综合研判
Dow Theory shows the downtrend sequence freezing at 80,960, with the double bottom awaiting neckline confirmation; in Chan Theory, the consolidation center has shifted upward to the Iron Curtain zone, with a clear quasi-second-buy/third-buy structure; in Elliott Wave Theory, a truncated C wave is a strong signal, with the new ① wave targeting 85,500-88,400; volume-price relations show an 18.5 billion V reversal + Delt

$LDO Current price is 0.4337. The first resistance above is the Bollinger upper band at 0.4416, while support below is MA20 at 0.4248. These two levels determine the short-term bull-bear divide.
Comparing three candidates in the same sector: $AVA is up 16.61% in 24h, with RSI surging to 64.5 and the 30-candle amplitude reaching as high as 34.42%. Volatility is intense, but the funding rate of -0.0431% shows that shorts are still paying, indicating a short-squeeze-style rally with relatively high risk in chasing the move; the other candidate is up 2.56%, with RSI at only 52.3 and an amplitude

Don’t rush to assign a direction to $NEAR . The 1-hour and 4-hour timeframes are still conflicting, and this is when a rebound is most easily mistaken for a reversal.
I’m watching just one point of divergence: whether there is still buying support after breaking above 5.368. The current price is 5.165, with volume at 0.16x. The 1-hour timeframe is relatively strong, while the 4-hour timeframe is relatively weak, with RSI at 69 and 36, respectively.
If volume continues to expand after breaking above 5.368, control will favor the bulls; if it breaks below 4.92 and fails to recover, the short-ter

Don’t short on Monday or Tuesday
On Thursday and Friday, you don’t dare not short
It’s the weekend today, and you still fucking don’t dare to short
What the hell are you hesitating about?$BTC $ETH

The decline of the Ph chain came faster than most people expected
Pons’s first wave of decline from the peak was 45%
The second wave of decline is currently 65%
From a technical perspective
An upward breakout from the descending channel would signal the end of this decline
I have selected two relatively bullish rebound paths
Both are rebounds with 0.27, the low of this wave, as the bottom line
If it breaks below that level, the possibility of this rebound will be pushed further back
Other likely scenarios mainly involve a weaker bottom-range consolidation path
That would involve disorderly con

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#On-chain metrics analysis
The market may only give you one to two months.
The red line in the chart represents the Short-Term Holder Cost Line (STH-RP), and the purple line represents the Market True Average Cost (TMMP).
When the STH-RP is higher than the TMMP, it usually means that a bull market structure has been confirmed; conversely, when the STH-RP is lower than the TMMP, the market is more inclined to a bear market structure.
Currently, STH-RP is around $74,500, and the price of $BTC is still trading above it. As long as the price doesn't fall below STH-RP, continued market turnover wil

The seller at 2632 is laughing, while the buyer at 2529 is crying? $ETH Whales are fighting among themselves at 2501—retail traders, don't pick the wrong side!
Buyers think they are smart, while sellers think they are even smarter.
Why has this divergence emerged? The one at 2632 started building a position in July, captured the entire upswing, and chose to take profits. The one at 2529 swapped BTC for ETH, betting that ETH would outperform BTC and possibly seeing a different rationale.
How do the capital flows look? The 15-day net outflow is nearly 3 billion, and long-term capital has been s

Tonight at 20:30, the decisive CPI battle begins—this data could determine Trump's midterm survival! So what impact will it have on major assets?
First, let's look at the current forecasts. All forecasts are higher than the previous readings, which is bearish relative to expectations. If the released data meets or exceeds expectations, the probability of another Fed rate hike at the end of the month will increase, putting further pressure on the market;
Whether this rate-hike cycle will continue or come to an abrupt halt basically depends entirely on this CPI
Before looking at this CPI, let's

The biggest trap in CPI market moves: Why doesn’t BTC rise when the data is bullish?
Many traders believe that as long as US CPI comes in below expectations, BTC, US stocks, and gold will definitely rise; if CPI comes in above expectations, the market will definitely fall.
But real financial markets are often not that simple.
First, the market trades the gap between expectations and reality, not simply whether the data is good or bad. If investors have already bet on cooling inflation, even if CPI meets expectations, the bullish news may already be priced in. After the data is released, profit

The September CPI data, set to be released today, is a focal point for markets as the final inflation reading before the Fed's interest rate decision on October 28. Current market pricing indicates an approximately 77% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged in October, with a 23% chance of a hike. This picture reflects that investors largely anticipate a pause but are not entirely convinced.
What is the CPI and why is it important?
The CPI is an index that measures price changes in a basket of goods and services purchased by households over a specific period. Core CPI, which exc

📈Oh my God, I took a big gulp and $PONS
has already taken off, everyone! Lee got on Long 297's boat a little late, but it's okay—it still has more room to fly. $ARC
$BTW
🥳🥳🥳

#StrategyRepurchases369MSTRC
🚨🚨🚨 Strategy Repurchases $369M $STRC
📊 Key Metrics
• Repurchase Amount: $368.7M (3,705,947 STRC shares)
• Average Buyback Price: ~$99.47 per share
• $BTC Purchased (Same Period): 584 BTC (~$50.2M)
• Ratio: STRC buyback was ~7x the Bitcoin purchase amount
• STRC Closing Price: $99.88 (Oct 12) — highest since May
• Recovery: +40% from June low of $71.25
• BTC Holdings: 848,250 BTC (~$64B cost basis)
• Remaining Buyback Authorization: $354.8M
📉 Market Implications
• Priority Shift: Strategy is now prioritizing its own preferred stock over Bitcoin accumu

$MARSCOIN Current price is 0.0853. The upper Bollinger Band at 0.0841 has been broken through, with short-term key resistance at 0.0880. Support at 0.0817 (MA5) and 0.0810 (MA20) forms a double-bottom defense line. The amplitude over the current 30 candlesticks is 11.61%, with volatility in the medium-high range. Combined with the Fear and Greed Index's greed reading of 62, the risk of chasing highs is clearly greater than the opportunity to buy on a pullback.
Technically: MA5 has crossed above MA20, and the price is above both moving averages. The MACD histogram at +0.000705 maintains a bull

Continue to be bearish on rebounds; the market has been range-bound recently, so sell high and buy low!
Continue to watch 82000 below. The short trade saw a pullback last night; continue shorting today!$BTC

#晒出我的持仓收益 Short-term long take-profit at 4173

Golden words of wisdom, bulls continue to enter
A new trading day, a new beginning. Yesterday, the price successfully reached 4200, and the 4150 long position captured 50 points of upside. The current price is hovering around 4160, reaching the previous long entry point again.
Continue entering long positions. As long as the support at 4130 holds, gold will test 4200 again, so do not enter short positions—continue going long. Enter short positions once gold moves above 4200, and wait for the price to rise.
Go long in the 4140–4150 range, targeting 4200.

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Inference costs are getting impossible to contain, and there are only so many GPUs. From now on, besides the monthly utility bills, there’ll also be a compute bill 😂