Five Weeks—Should You Be Opening a Position Now?
Bitcoin has been moving sideways around $63,000 for nearly five weeks. This kind of market is the most frustrating—it can neither rise nor fall, with only narrow fluctuations of a few dozen points each day, while trading volume has slumped to its lowest level since 2019. Many people’s patience has been completely worn down: either they couldn’t resist opening a position and were repeatedly stopped out, or they simply gave up and stopped looking. So the question is: after such a long period of sideways movement, should you be opening a position now?
First, let’s look at what is happening in the market. Bitcoin has fallen all the way from a high near $93,000 in January 2026 and is currently down about 31% from that peak. After dropping to a low of $58,600 in early June, it rebounded and formed a double-bottom pattern. It is currently locked in repeated battles between $62,500 and $65,000. On-chain data shows that long-term holders’ SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) once fell to the lowest point of this cycle, indicating that even diamond hands are selling at a loss. At the same time, the amount of Bitcoin transferred to exchanges by whales has clearly exceeded that from retail investors, suggesting that large holders are preparing for potential selling. The macro environment is also unsettled—the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September has reached 56%, while the CLARITY Act has been postponed until September. Taken together, these signals point to one conclusion: the market is waiting for a direction, and that direction has not yet emerged.
So where is the risk of opening a position now? If you opened a long position at $63,000, the $64,500–$65,000 area is the first resistance, while $65,500–$66,000 is the key supply zone. The upside is limited, but the stop-loss would need to be set below $62,500, making the risk-reward ratio unattractive. If you opened a short position, $62,500 is important support below, while $58,000 is the cycle bottom. The downside is similarly limited, and if the price breaks upward, the short position could be trapped badly. Opening a position when the direction is unclear is like driving in dense fog—not impossible, but the risks far outweigh the potential returns.
So what should you do? My advice is: either stay out, or test the waters with a small position. If you really cannot resist trading, use a tiny position—such as 1%–2% of your total capital—to cautiously test longs near the lower end of the range and shorts near the upper end, with a stop-loss in place. If you make money, treat it as pocket money; if you lose, it will not affect the bigger picture. But the wiser choice is to wait. Wait for the price to break above $65,000 on increased volume and then confirm the level with a retest before going long; or wait for the price to break below $62,500 and then confirm the move with a rebound before going short. Direction matters more than entry price, and certainty matters more than the rate of return. Before a clear signal appears, staying out of the market is not cowardice—it is wisdom.
#我的七夕交易分享
$TSLA
Bitcoin has been moving sideways around $63,000 for nearly five weeks. This kind of market is the most frustrating—it can neither rise nor fall, with only narrow fluctuations of a few dozen points each day, while trading volume has slumped to its lowest level since 2019. Many people’s patience has been completely worn down: either they couldn’t resist opening a position and were repeatedly stopped out, or they simply gave up and stopped looking. So the question is: after such a long period of sideways movement, should you be opening a position now?
First, let’s look at what is happening in the market. Bitcoin has fallen all the way from a high near $93,000 in January 2026 and is currently down about 31% from that peak. After dropping to a low of $58,600 in early June, it rebounded and formed a double-bottom pattern. It is currently locked in repeated battles between $62,500 and $65,000. On-chain data shows that long-term holders’ SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) once fell to the lowest point of this cycle, indicating that even diamond hands are selling at a loss. At the same time, the amount of Bitcoin transferred to exchanges by whales has clearly exceeded that from retail investors, suggesting that large holders are preparing for potential selling. The macro environment is also unsettled—the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September has reached 56%, while the CLARITY Act has been postponed until September. Taken together, these signals point to one conclusion: the market is waiting for a direction, and that direction has not yet emerged.
So where is the risk of opening a position now? If you opened a long position at $63,000, the $64,500–$65,000 area is the first resistance, while $65,500–$66,000 is the key supply zone. The upside is limited, but the stop-loss would need to be set below $62,500, making the risk-reward ratio unattractive. If you opened a short position, $62,500 is important support below, while $58,000 is the cycle bottom. The downside is similarly limited, and if the price breaks upward, the short position could be trapped badly. Opening a position when the direction is unclear is like driving in dense fog—not impossible, but the risks far outweigh the potential returns.
So what should you do? My advice is: either stay out, or test the waters with a small position. If you really cannot resist trading, use a tiny position—such as 1%–2% of your total capital—to cautiously test longs near the lower end of the range and shorts near the upper end, with a stop-loss in place. If you make money, treat it as pocket money; if you lose, it will not affect the bigger picture. But the wiser choice is to wait. Wait for the price to break above $65,000 on increased volume and then confirm the level with a retest before going long; or wait for the price to break below $62,500 and then confirm the move with a rebound before going short. Direction matters more than entry price, and certainty matters more than the rate of return. Before a clear signal appears, staying out of the market is not cowardice—it is wisdom.
#我的七夕交易分享
$TSLA

















