Moathalmahdi

#每周来晒 #美联储加息会议 FOMC Preview: A September Rate Hike Alone Will No Longer Be Enough to Calm the Credibility Crisis
The Federal Reserve will announce its September policy decision in the early hours of Thursday, September 17, Beijing time. Given the recent strength of US fundamentals, recurring tensions in the Middle East, and lingering risks at the long end of the US Treasury curve, we believe the Fed’s credibility would struggle to withstand the “blow” of not hiking rates in September, making a September hike a “must” for the Fed. More importantly, market pricing for the continuity and overall magnitude of Fed rate hikes has risen significantly recently. From the perspective of fundamentals and risk premia, we believe the Fed may need to hike rates three times cumulatively over this year and next. Therefore, the implementation of a September hike may only bring temporary stability. Given that Warsh will most likely refuse to provide forward guidance, markets will continue to repeatedly test the Fed’s credibility after the September FOMC meeting. If the Fed subsequently fails to signal further rate hikes, or even if the tail risk of no September hike materializes, the term premium on US Treasuries could rise again, “anti-fiat” trades could heat up rapidly, and US equities could come under significant pressure.
The Fed’s credibility would struggle to withstand the “blow” of not hiking rates in September, making a September hike a “must” for the Fed.
Since Warsh took office, the Fed’s credibility has been strengthened at the June FOMC meeting, damaged at the July FOMC meeting, and repaired at the August Jackson Hole central banking symposium. This has not only exhausted the market’s “patience,” but also pushed the Fed into a position where it seemingly has no choice but to deliver on its “promise.” Specifically, at the August Jackson Hole meeting, Warsh sent a clear hawkish signal to the market to make up for his “evasive” remarks at the July FOMC meeting. Although Governor Waller’s subsequent remarks calling for more patience on inflation briefly guided market rate-hike expectations toward a more balanced level, the August payrolls report far exceeded expectations, August CPI and PPI inflation picked up, and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continued to push up oil prices. Even though there is room to debate the data—for example, the August payrolls report may have reflected an unusual subsequent catch-up, the rebound in housing costs in August CPI came from the highly volatile hotel accommodation component, and the rise in the communications component of August CPI resulted from a one-off disturbance caused by carriers collectively adjusting prices—the Fed’s credibility may struggle to withstand the “blow” of not hiking rates in September. We expect the Fed to initiate a rate hike in September.
Regarding the dot plot and economic projections, we expect the Fed to raise its projected number of rate hikes in 2026 and increase its inflation forecast.
In the dot plot, among the officials who submitted projections in June, nine expected at least one rate hike in 2026, while nine expected rates to remain unchanged or decline, with the median pointing to a modest rate hike. We expect the median number of rate hikes in 2026 in the September dot plot to rise to two. Regarding the economic projections, given that the Middle East conflict has lasted longer than expected, the Fed may make modest adjustments, lowering its 2026 growth forecast and raising its 2026 inflation forecast, while keeping its unemployment forecast unchanged or revising it slightly lower.
But even a September rate hike would not be enough to calm market doubts about the Fed’s credibility—or stabilize long-end US Treasury yields. Changes in market pricing have raised the cost of rebuilding the Fed’s credibility. The market is now pricing in an almost complete probability of a 25bp September hike, with the probability priced in the federal funds futures market close to 90%, and is pricing in three to four cumulative rate hikes by next June—effectively reversing all three preventive cuts made last year. Compared with the roughly two cumulative hikes priced in by next June in late August, market pricing is increasingly tilting toward a continuous hiking cycle. The structural contradictions behind the current rise in long-end yields also cannot be alleviated by a single rate hike.
Strong US nominal growth—with nominal growth still above the 10-year US Treasury yield—the Middle East energy shock, the crowding-out effect of long-duration financing by private-sector companies represented by AI firms, and the erosion of credibility in US macroeconomic policy—an unclear monetary-policy reaction function, weakened fiscal discipline, and buybacks “backfiring”—have all driven the current rise in long-end US Treasury yields. Structural problems such as fiscal sustainability and fiscal interventionism are particularly difficult to reverse. By contrast, given that Warsh will most likely continue to refuse to provide forward guidance, we believe the implementation of a September hike may bring only temporary stability. It is still unlikely to fully calm market anxiety over the Fed’s credibility, nor will it necessarily be sufficient to anchor long-end US Treasury yields. Whether subsequent consecutive hikes will materialize may continue to disturb markets intermittently.
The Fed may need to hike rates consecutively, and may need to reverse at least the three “preventive” cuts made in 2025; if it hikes only in September, the rate level will remain too low relative to nominal growth, while the Fed’s credibility will continue to be repeatedly “tested” by the market. We proposed as early as May this year that the Fed needed to hike rates, and our assessment at the time was that the Fed needed to hike twice by the middle of next year.
From the framework of fundamentals and risk premia, the Fed needs to hike rates three times consecutively. Fundamentally, US economic growth has remained relatively strong, with nominal growth reaching 6.9% in the first half of the year and US corporate earnings guidance remaining relatively high. In addition, the risk of a slowdown in the disinflation process has risen recently, as US-Iran tensions push up energy prices, low inventories of oil products heighten concerns over oil prices, and the transmission of the AI-driven wave of hardware price increases to downstream sectors becomes increasingly evident. AI capital expenditure expectations have also been revised higher following second-quarter earnings reports. We believe the number of rate hikes needed for the Fed to anchor inflation expectations should therefore be raised—that is, above two.
From a risk-premium perspective, given that Warsh has still not used “action” to prove the hawkish inclination he first expressed, and that the communication failure and “inconsistency between words and actions” at the July FOMC have begun to raise market doubts about the independence of his decisions—specifically, whether he is under pressure from the president—the number of hikes the Fed “should” deliver may be around three in order to repair its credibility to some extent. In other words, if the actual number of hikes is significantly lower than the number the Fed should deliver, it will fall further behind the curve, making long-end yields difficult to anchor and further damaging the Fed’s credibility.
If the Fed does not signal further rate hikes after September, or even if the tail risk of no September hike materializes, the term premium on US Treasuries could rise sharply and disorderly, “anti-fiat” trades could heat up rapidly, and short-term stock-market volatility could increase. In our preview of the August Jackson Hole meeting, we provided a scenario-analysis framework under which the only path for the Fed to repair its credibility or ease market concerns in the short term was “a hawkish Jackson Hole meeting plus a September FOMC hike.” But as analyzed above, whether due to recent marginal changes in fundamentals, shifts in the intensity of the Middle East situation, or the growing visibility of structural problems such as US fiscal issues, all factors point to an increase in both the continuity and magnitude of the rate hikes needed for the Fed to rebuild credibility. Therefore, if the Fed cannot provide guidance on subsequent rate hikes in September, or even remains on hold at the September meeting, the disorderly rise in long-end US Treasury yields may recur, rapidly heating up “anti-fiat” trades and driving the dollar lower and gold higher. For equities, rising long-end yields would create pressure on the denominator—the valuation side—while the numerator is unlikely to be revised significantly higher in the short term. If rates rise gradually and relatively orderly, the market may be pricing in more of an increase in the neutral rate driven by improving fundamentals, leaving room for the pressure to ease. But if the market prices in damage to the Fed’s credibility or uncertainty over the policy path, disorderly fluctuations in long-end yields could place even greater pressure on US equities.

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📈 Three metrics to see Gate’s growth rate.
CryptoQuant’s latest report shows:
🥉 Top 3 globally in spot trading volume
🥇 Spot 30-day growth of +667%, ranking No. 1 globally
🥉 Top 3 globally in derivatives trading volume growth
Spot trading volume is increasing, while spot and derivatives trading activity are also growing simultaneously.
Rankings show strength, while growth rates show trends.
What do you think is most worth watching about Gate’s growth this round? 👀
👇 Post with the hashtag #Gate增速全球第一 to discuss:
Trading volume, liquidity, products, or the growing number of users entering the market?

#Gate广场中秋团圆局 #韩国股市开盘重挫3% South Korea’s stock market (KOSPI) plunged 3% at the open, with the semiconductor sector leading the decline. Memory chip companies such as SanDisk and SK Hynix came under pressure. This trend was mainly driven by multiple factors, and future performance should be assessed comprehensively based on market sentiment, industry fundamentals, and the macroeconomic environment. Key analysis follows: 1. Short-term outlook: Sentiment-driven, with volatility likely to continue
The sentiment shock has not yet been fully priced in: Calls from AI giants to slow the development of frontier large models have raised market concerns about the growth of demand for computing power, putting memory chips, a core component of AI hardware, on the front line. As a global semiconductor barometer, South Korea’s stock market may continue to experience short-term sentiment pressure. Memory stocks such as SanDisk and SK Hynix may remain under pressure, while the KOSPI index may continue to fluctuate and correct.
Impact of foreign capital flows: South Korea’s stock market has a relatively high proportion of foreign ownership. If foreign capital continues to flow out due to tightening global liquidity, such as expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes, or declining risk appetite, market volatility could intensify. Attention should be paid to northbound fund flows and changes in foreign investors’ allocations to the semiconductor sector.
2. Medium-term outlook: Industry fundamentals and policy support
Resilience of the semiconductor cycle: Despite short-term adjustments to demand expectations, the global semiconductor industry remains in an upcycle. Memory chip prices have continued to rise recently, and the supply-demand relationship has not fundamentally reversed. HBM capacity expansion plans by companies such as SK Hynix are still progressing, providing continued support for medium- and long-term demand.
Policy support and reform dividends: The South Korean government has adopted the Special Act on Strengthening Semiconductor Industry Competitiveness and is advancing corporate governance reforms, which are expected to improve semiconductor companies’ profitability and shareholder returns, providing fundamental support for the stock market.
3. Long-term outlook: Structural divergence and industrial upgrading
Increasing sector divergence: Significant divergence will emerge within the semiconductor sector. Companies with technological leadership and extensive customer resources, such as Samsung Electronics, will have stronger risk resistance, while companies with slow technological iteration and dependence on a single market may face greater pressure.
Industrial upgrading opportunities: South Korea’s semiconductor industry is transitioning from traditional memory to high-end chips, AI chips, and other fields. If it can seize opportunities arising from technological change, it may occupy higher-value segments of the global semiconductor industry chain and drive long-term stock market growth.
Investment recommendations:
Short term: Avoid blindly chasing rallies or selling into declines. Monitor changes in market sentiment and foreign capital flows, moderately reduce positions in highly valued semiconductor stocks, and retain some cash or defensive assets.
Medium term: Monitor changes in the semiconductor industry cycle and prioritize companies with technological leadership, extensive customer resources, and clear capacity expansion plans, such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
Long term: Monitor the upgrading trend of South Korea’s semiconductor industry, invest in cutting-edge fields such as AI chips and advanced process technologies, and seize investment opportunities arising from industrial upgrading. $KR200 ‌

🧠 I stopped asking one question about EGY…
"Will EGY go up?"
I discovered that this isn't the most important question.
The more important question is:
"What needs to happen with EGY for today's price to look completely different in the future?"
Greater liquidity?
Wider adoption?
Spot trading?
Real partnerships?
A stronger community?
Global access?
No one knows what the next chapter will be.
And that's exactly what makes me interested in following the project from this stage.
I'm not trying to predict the future…
I want to see whether the project can build it or not.
⚡ EGY/USDT — Gate Alpha
Do your own research, assess the risks, and make your own decision.
$LAB
$PIPPIN
$SIREN
$SKYAI

📅 Gate Square U.S. Stock Weekly Calendar | September 14–September 18
The real highlights of this week’s U.S. stock market are here 👀
🏦 FOMC rate decision + latest dot plot to be revealed Wednesday
💾 AI and memory chip stocks including NVDA / SNDK / MU remain highly volatile
🍎 Apple’s new products officially go on sale Friday
📊 Retail sales and real estate data will also be released in succession
If you could choose only one, which theme are you most focused on?
A. AI / memory chips
B. FOMC rate decision
C. Apple’s new products
D. Wait for the market to provide direction
Save the poster first and come to Gate Square to share your view 👇
https://www.gate.com/zh/post

#Gate24HFuturesOpenInterestTops$11.479B Gate’s Futures Open Interest Crosses $11.479B: A Strong Signal of Trust, Liquidity and Market Participation
Gate continues to prove that serious traders are paying attention. The latest futures market data shows Gate’s open interest around $11.479 billion, placing the exchange among the world’s leading centralized exchanges by derivatives activity. For me, this is much more than a headline number. It is a market signal: capital is being deployed, positions are staying active, and traders are increasingly comfortable using Gate as a venue for sophisticated futures strategies.
First, let us understand what $11.479 billion of open interest actually means. Open interest represents the total value of futures positions that remain open rather than already being closed or settled. It is therefore different from trading volume. Volume measures how much trading happens during a period, while open interest shows how much positioning remains active in the market. When both activity and open positions are substantial, the market is telling us that participation is not merely a short burst of transactions. Traders are maintaining exposure and using the derivatives market continuously.
That distinction matters. A large open-interest figure should never be interpreted as automatically bullish or bearish. It does not tell us whether traders are predominantly long or short, and it does not guarantee that prices will rise. Instead, it tells us that there is substantial participation and capital committed to open positions. In my view, that is exactly why Gate’s $11.479B milestone deserves attention.
What impresses me most is the scale. Eleven billion dollars is not a small figure. It places Gate’s futures market firmly in the conversation with the largest global trading venues. Current third-party market data also shows Gate with roughly $18.47B in 24-hour futures volume alongside about $11.47B of open interest. That combination is important because it shows both active turnover and a large pool of outstanding positions. Liquidity and participation are becoming major competitive advantages in derivatives, and Gate is building meaningful strength on both fronts.
The numbers become even more interesting when we look at individual markets. Current data tracks close to 1,000 perpetual futures markets on Gate. BTC remains a major contributor, with roughly $4.91B in open interest, while ETH is another major source of activity with around $3.04B of open interest and approximately $1.99B in 24-hour volume. SOL is also active, with about $742.84M in open interest and roughly $249.77M in 24-hour volume. These figures show that Gate is not depending on a single contract. It is supporting meaningful participation across major crypto assets and a growing range of markets.
For me, this breadth is one of Gate’s strongest advantages. Traders do not only want one popular BTC contract. They want access to ETH, SOL, XRP, BNB, DOGE and many other markets, while increasingly looking at RWA-linked and equity-related perpetual products as well. Gate’s ability to expand its derivatives universe means traders can respond to different market conditions without constantly changing platforms.
The RWA story is particularly impressive. Recent Gate data reported that its RWA perpetual futures volume reached $64.7B in August, up 158% month over month, while its market share increased from 5.32% to 12.6%. That is a remarkable acceleration. In my opinion, this is where Gate’s broader strategy becomes visible: the exchange is not simply trying to compete for existing crypto futures activity; it is also positioning itself around the next generation of multi-asset derivatives.
This matters because the future of trading will increasingly connect crypto, equities, commodities, indices and real-world assets. Gate’s expansion into these areas gives traders more flexibility and creates a stronger ecosystem around the platform. When a platform can provide deep markets, diverse instruments and active derivatives participation in one place, its usefulness rises substantially.
I also see the $11.479B open-interest level as a trust signal, although it should not be confused with a guarantee of safety or profit. Traders generally do not maintain large amounts of active exposure on a platform unless they consider its infrastructure useful for their strategy. High open interest therefore reflects a combination of market participation, available products, execution needs and trader confidence. The fact that Gate is attracting this level of positioning tells me that the exchange has earned an increasingly important place in the derivatives landscape.
Gate’s transparency efforts strengthen that impression. Its recent August transparency report showed approximately $8.215B in reserves and an overall reserve ratio of 127%, while 30-day net inflows were reported at about $308.1M. To me, these figures are meaningful because trust in an exchange is built from more than trading screens. Users want to know that the platform is taking custody, liquidity and reserves seriously. Transparency does not remove market risk, but it can improve confidence when users evaluate where to trade.
The liquidity question is equally important. A futures platform can list hundreds of contracts, but the real test is whether traders can enter and exit positions efficiently. High 24-hour volume, substantial open interest and active markets together create a stronger environment for execution. Gate’s reported $18.47B in 24-hour futures volume and $11.47B of open interest indicate that the platform has developed considerable derivatives activity. For traders, that matters because liquidity can influence spreads, execution quality and the ability to manage positions during fast-moving markets.
My view is that Gate is moving from being simply another crypto exchange toward becoming a serious multi-asset trading ecosystem. The growth of futures, RWA perpetuals, stock-related contracts and broader financial products supports that direction. The exchange is competing not only through the number of listings, but through market depth, product diversity and the ability to attract sustained trading activity.
There is another important point: open interest can become especially informative during volatile periods. If BTC moves sharply and open interest rises at the same time, it may indicate that traders are adding new exposure. If price rises while open interest falls, the move can instead be associated with position closures or short covering. If price falls while open interest rises, new positions may be entering on the bearish side.
Therefore, I would never analyze Gate’s $11.479B figure in isolation. I would combine it with price action, funding rates, long/short ratios, liquidation data, volume and market structure.
For BTC, for example, current Gate market data places open interest around $4.91B. That is a huge portion of Gate’s overall futures positioning, which makes BTC a key market to monitor. ETH also deserves close attention because its futures activity is substantial, with around $1.99B in 24-hour volume and roughly $3.04B in open interest in the latest available data. When BTC and ETH liquidity remain strong, they can provide the foundation for broader derivatives activity across altcoins.
Altcoins bring a different opportunity and a different risk profile. SOL, XRP, DOGE, BNB and other contracts can experience much larger percentage moves than BTC. High liquidity can help traders execute strategies, but leverage can amplify both gains and losses. That is why I believe Gate’s strongest feature is not simply that it offers futures; it is that traders can use market data to make more informed decisions.
My personal analysis is straightforward: Gate’s $11.479B open-interest milestone is a strong vote of confidence from market participants. It shows that Gate is attracting serious derivatives activity, while its broader RWA and multi-asset expansion suggests that the exchange is preparing for a much larger role in global trading.
I particularly like the way Gate is combining established crypto markets with newer financial products. The 158% month-over-month growth in RWA perpetual volume is not ordinary growth. Moving from 5.32% to 12.6% market share in one month shows that Gate is gaining ground rapidly in an emerging category. If this momentum continues, Gate could strengthen its position even further as traders search for platforms capable of supporting both crypto-native and traditional-asset-linked strategies.
There is also a psychological element behind these numbers. Traders have choices. They can move between major exchanges, compare liquidity, evaluate fees, monitor execution and choose where to keep their active positions. When an exchange consistently attracts billions of dollars in open interest and billions more in daily futures volume, that choice becomes meaningful. In my opinion, Gate is increasingly becoming a platform that traders are choosing because it offers a combination of liquidity, product variety, infrastructure and a growing reputation.
For me, Gate’s progress is not only about ranking among the top three global CEXs. The bigger story is the trajectory. The platform is expanding its derivatives footprint, strengthening RWA markets, increasing product diversity and attracting substantial capital participation. That combination can create a powerful network effect: more products attract more traders, more traders generate more volume, deeper markets improve liquidity, and better liquidity makes the platform more attractive to additional participants.
My conclusion is bullish on Gate’s growth. $11.479B in open interest matters, but the bigger story is the ecosystem behind it: approximately $18.47B in 24-hour futures volume, around $11.47B in open interest, close to 1,000 tracked perpetual markets, strong BTC and ETH participation, and growing RWA derivatives. For me, these numbers show growing trader confidence in Gate’s liquidity. High open interest is not automatically bullish, so I would combine it with price action and volume. Still, Gate’s trajectory is impressive.#ShareWeekly #weeklyshare

#GateEventPointsTop100
🏆 Gate Event Points Top 100: Every Point Can Change the Race
The Gate Event Points leaderboard is becoming one of the most interesting ways to see which members are staying consistently active across the Gate ecosystem.
When hundreds or thousands of participants are taking part in events, campaigns, trading activities, and community initiatives, reaching the Top 100 is not something that happens simply by being active once or twice.
It requires consistency.
And that is exactly what makes this leaderboard interesting.
🔥 THE BATTLE FOR TOP 100
The Top 100 ranking highlights participants who are actively engaging with eligible Gate events and activities.
For many community members, the goal is simple: collect eligible event points, improve their ranking, and challenge other participants from around the world.
But the competition can change quickly.
A participant who is outside the Top 100 today could potentially move higher through additional eligible participation. At the same time, someone currently sitting comfortably inside the Top 100 may need to remain active to maintain that position.
That creates a constantly moving leaderboard.
📈 CONSISTENCY CAN MAKE THE DIFFERENCE
In my opinion, one of the most important lessons from any points-based competition is that small gains can become meaningful over time.
You do not necessarily need one huge activity to make progress.
Participating consistently in eligible Gate events, campaigns, and community initiatives can help build your overall points total.
When rankings are close, even a relatively small difference in points may separate several positions.
That is why checking your progress regularly can be useful.
🎯 WHAT SHOULD PARTICIPANTS FOCUS ON?
For anyone trying to reach the Top 100, I would focus on four simple things:
1️⃣ Stay informed about eligible Gate events.
2️⃣ Participate consistently instead of waiting until the final moment.
3️⃣ Keep monitoring your accumulated points and leaderboard position.
4️⃣ Look for legitimate opportunities within the Gate ecosystem to increase participation.
The objective is not simply to participate everywhere without understanding the rules. It is better to know which activities are eligible and then participate strategically and consistently.
🌍 A GLOBAL COMPETITION
Another interesting part of the Gate Event Points ranking is its global nature.
Participants from different countries and communities are competing on the same leaderboard.
That makes every ranking position more meaningful because you are not competing only with people from your local community. You are participating alongside a much broader global crypto audience.
For active Gate users, this creates an additional motivation to stay involved.
💡 MY VIEW ON THE LEADERBOARD
I see the Top 100 as a combination of participation, consistency, and timing.
The leaderboard can change as more participants complete eligible activities, so today's position should never be treated as the final result.
The event is still moving, and the competition remains open until the applicable event period ends.
That means there is always a reason to stay informed and keep checking your progress.
🚀 KEEP CLIMBING
Gate continues to expand its ecosystem through events, campaigns, trading opportunities, new products, and community activities.
The Event Points leaderboard brings all of that competitive energy into one place.
If your goal is the Top 100, stay focused.
🏆 Participate.
🎯 Earn eligible points.
📊 Track your ranking.
🌍 Compete globally.
🔥 Stay consistent.
The leaderboard is moving every day, and a few additional points can potentially make a bigger difference than expected.
🚀 The race to Top 100 is still on. Keep participating, keep improving, and keep climbing!
#Gate事件积分Top100 @Gate_Square #Gateio #GateSquare #GateEvents

🌕 Grab your share of 15,000+ USDT in prizes—the Gate Plaza “Mid-Autumn Creation Season” is officially live!
Discuss market trends, showcase your trades, and share investment insights—create and win Mid-Autumn prizes!
Participate now 👉️ https://www.gate.com/campaigns/6260
🎁 Mid-Autumn Benefits
1️⃣ Post to enter the red packet draw: up to 5 USDT per draw
2️⃣ Creator leaderboard: Win a Gate Mid-Autumn limited-edition gift box + up to 1,000 USDT
3️⃣ Bonus rewards for quality content: Verified creator badge + content selection + exclusive traffic support
4️⃣ Newcomer first-post gift: 50 lucky users share a 1,000 USDT prize pool
📌 Participation is easy:
① Sign up and include #Gate广场中秋团圆局 + to publish original content on daily trending topics
③ Discuss market trends, share insights, and climb the leaderboard to unlock generous Mid-Autumn benefits!
👉 Post now: https://www.gate.com/post
👉 Event details: https://www.gate.com/announcements/article/101723

Robinhood Chain 收入连续五日下滑 - 24 小时收入降至 72.3 万美元
#RobinhoodChain #链上收入 #DeFi #收入下滑 #今日热点话题
Robinhood Chain Revenue Falls for Five Straight Days to $723K: The End of a Hype Cycle or a Healthy Normalization?
After a spectacular debut that made it one of the most talked-about chains in early September, Robinhood Chain is now showing the other side of rapid growth. Daily network revenue, which had peaked at around $6 million on September 4, has entered a five-day consecutive decline and has now compressed to the $723,000 to $950,000 range, representing an 83% to 85% drawdown from its all-time high.
On the surface, a drop of this magnitude looks like a collapse. The underlying data tells a far more nuanced and actually more interesting story about how new Layer-2 economies mature.
First, the numbers need to be placed in context. DeFiLlama data showed $5.54 million in daily revenue on September 4, followed by $841,178 on September 11, and $949,331 on September 10. Seven-day cumulative revenue settled around $18.34 million. That is still a figure that keeps Robinhood Chain ranked as the second-largest chain by daily revenue, just behind Canton, even during the correction. In other words, even at its low, it is earning more than most established Layer-1s.
Second, the decline in revenue has not been matched by a decline in usage. Blockscout data indicates the chain processed 13.6 million transactions on September 10, compared to 13.98 million on September 4, a drop of only about 3%. Decentralized exchange volume on the chain held firm near $1.7 to $2.5 billion in the same 24-hour window. Users did not leave. They simply started paying less.
That divergence between stable activity and falling fees is the key to understanding what happened. The initial revenue spike was not driven by organic, long-term transaction demand. It was driven by three temporary factors that all peaked at once. The public mainnet launch brought a wave of airdrop farmers executing high-frequency interactions to qualify for future rewards. The introduction of tokenized U.S. stocks for users in more than 120 countries created a novelty premium where traders were willing to pay elevated gas to be first. And an initial incentive program subsidized liquidity provision that inflated fee generation.
As those three factors normalized, the fee market did what fee markets always do. The average gas price fell back to a competitive level, and the protocol's take rate compressed. Gas revenue alone fell from $6.04 million on September 4 to $1.05 million on September 10, an 82.6% drop, perfectly mirroring total revenue.
For the parent company, this pattern is familiar. In its Q2 2026 report, Robinhood Markets reported that crypto transaction revenue fell 38% year-over-year to $100 million, even as equity trading volume hit $956 billion and options contracts reached 774 million. The company has consistently shown that it can grow its overall ecosystem while crypto-specific fees remain highly cyclical.
The strategic implication is actually positive. A chain that can maintain 13 million daily transactions and near-record DEX volume with sub-million-dollar daily revenue is demonstrating efficiency, not weakness. It suggests that the network is capable of supporting high throughput at low cost, which is precisely what is needed to compete for tokenized equities and retail DeFi flows in the long term. The $6 million day was an anomaly driven by speculation. The $723,000 day is likely much closer to its sustainable baseline.
What to watch next is not whether revenue rebounds to $6 million, because it should not without another artificial catalyst. What matters is whether transaction count and total value locked remain stable over the next two weeks and whether Robinhood Earn, its new decentralized lending product, can create a more durable, interest-based revenue stream to replace the volatile gas-based model.

#AugustCoreCPIBeatsExpectations
August CPI should not be viewed as an isolated inflation number. For me, the real story is the chain reaction: CPI → Fed expectations → Treasury yields → dollar and liquidity → crypto and U.S. equities. That is the framework I am using for the next seven days.
August headline CPI increased 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, while core CPI increased 0.3% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year. The headline figure was broadly in line with expectations, but inflation is still above the Fed’s 2% target. At the same time, energy prices have become an additional risk. Brent crude has moved above $107, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is around 4.97%. These numbers matter because higher oil and yields can keep financial conditions tight for longer.
My biggest takeaway is that the Fed rate-cut discussion has changed dramatically. The market is now pricing roughly an 86% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike this week. That means the market is no longer simply asking, “When will the Fed cut?” It is asking whether inflation and energy pressures are strong enough to force the Fed to remain restrictive for longer.
In my view, the rate decision itself may create less surprise than the Fed’s forward guidance. If a 25-basis-point hike is already priced in, the real market reaction could come from the statement, economic projections and press conference. A less hawkish message could trigger a relief rally across crypto and equities. A message suggesting additional tightening may be necessary could push yields and the dollar higher and create another risk-off wave.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $76.7K, with a market capitalization around $1.54T and roughly $6.8B in reported 24-hour volume. BTC is down about 0.5% over 24 hours and around 2.9% over seven days, but remains substantially higher over the longer 30-day window. This tells me BTC is not in a clean breakdown; it is consolidating while macro pressure is increasing.
My BTC view for the next seven days is cautiously bullish but confirmation-based. I want to see buyers reclaim resistance with expanding volume rather than buying every dip blindly. The first major signal I would watch is whether BTC can establish itself back above the $78K–$80K area. A strong breakout with increasing spot volume would improve the probability of a move toward $82K–$85K. Conversely, a decisive loss of the $75K area, particularly while Treasury yields continue rising, could expose BTC to another deeper correction.
Liquidity is the key. A BTC move accompanied by rising volume is much more convincing than a move occurring on thin liquidity. With total crypto market capitalization around $2.69T and approximately $53B in 24-hour trading volume, the market still has substantial liquidity, but BTC dominance around 57% tells me capital remains relatively defensive and concentrated in Bitcoin rather than aggressively rotating across the altcoin market.
Ethereum is currently around $2.48K, with a market capitalization near $303B and roughly $4.9B in 24-hour volume. ETH is down around 1.6% over 24 hours but has been much stronger over the broader 30-day period. For me, this creates an interesting setup: ETH does not need the Fed to become extremely dovish; it mainly needs BTC to stabilize and liquidity conditions to stop deteriorating.
My ETH trigger is relative strength. If BTC stabilizes and ETH starts outperforming BTC on increasing volume, I would consider that a stronger risk-on signal for the broader crypto market. My preferred scenario would be ETH reclaiming the $2.55K–$2.60K area and then attempting $2.70K–$2.80K. If ETH loses the $2.40K region while BTC also breaks support, I would become much more defensive.
Solana is trading around $99, while XRP is around $1.34. CoinDesk’s latest market snapshot shows both assets under pressure alongside the major market, with SOL showing a larger daily decline than BTC and ETH.
For SOL, I would watch the psychological $100 level very closely. Holding and reclaiming $105–$110 with stronger volume could create room toward $115–$120. Losing $95 would weaken the short-term structure. For XRP, the $1.30–$1.33 region is important support, while $1.40–$1.45 would be an important confirmation zone. I would not treat either asset as a blind buy; volume and BTC direction need to confirm the trade.
This is also why I am not equally bullish on every altcoin. BTC dominance near 57% suggests Bitcoin is still controlling a large portion of market liquidity. Until BTC stabilizes and ETH begins gaining relative strength, I would rather concentrate on liquid large-cap assets than chase speculative moves.
The U.S. stock market is facing the same macro equation. The S&P 500 recently closed around 7,657, while the Nasdaq was around 26,333 and the Dow around 52,573. Friday produced a rebound, but the previous week still ended lower: the S&P 500 lost about 0.8%, the Nasdaq 0.7%, and the Dow 1.6%.
The reason I am watching Nasdaq particularly closely is its sensitivity to Treasury yields. When the 10-year yield approaches 5%, high-valuation growth and technology companies face greater valuation pressure because future earnings are discounted at a higher rate. If yields fall after the Fed meeting, the same technology sector could quickly become a beneficiary of renewed risk appetite.
Therefore, my stock-market thesis is not simply bullish or bearish. It is yield-dependent. If the 10-year yield moves back below the recent highs and oil begins cooling, I would expect technology and growth stocks to recover more strongly. If yields push above 5% and oil remains elevated, I would expect greater volatility, particularly in high-duration technology names.
The oil market is now one of the biggest variables in this entire thesis. Brent around $107.5 is a completely different macro environment from Brent near $70–80. Higher energy prices can feed into inflation expectations, which can keep the Fed restrictive, which can lift yields, which can pressure both stocks and crypto.
That gives me three scenarios for the next seven days.
My bullish scenario is that the expected Fed hike is already sufficiently priced in, the Fed avoids signaling an aggressive additional tightening cycle, Treasury yields stabilize, oil stops accelerating, and the dollar loses momentum. In that environment, I would expect BTC to attempt a breakout above $80K, ETH to recover toward $2.7K+, and high-quality large-cap altcoins to begin attracting liquidity. Nasdaq and growth stocks could also rebound.
My neutral scenario is that the Fed remains hawkish but does not signal another immediate escalation. BTC remains inside roughly the $75K–$80K zone, ETH trades around the $2.4K–$2.6K area, altcoins remain selective, and U.S. stocks experience sector rotation. In this environment, I would prefer shorter-duration trades and wait for confirmation rather than forcing a directional position.
My bearish scenario is more straightforward: oil continues climbing, the 10-year Treasury yield pushes decisively above 5%, the dollar strengthens and the Fed signals that further tightening may be necessary. That combination could pressure BTC below $75K, ETH below $2.4K, altcoins even more aggressively, and high-valuation technology stocks simultaneously. In that situation, preserving liquidity would become more important than chasing rebounds.
My highest-conviction opportunity is therefore not simply “buy because CPI is over.” My preferred setup is a confirmation trade: BTC first, ETH second, and selected large-cap altcoins only after market breadth improves.
For BTC, I want resistance broken with volume. For ETH, I want relative strength against BTC. For altcoins, I want rising liquidity and market breadth. For U.S. stocks, I want Treasury yields to stop rising. These confirmations would tell me that the market is moving from defensive positioning back toward risk-on positioning.
The numbers are telling an interesting story. BTC is around $76.7K with approximately $1.54T market capitalization and $6.8B reported 24-hour volume; ETH is around $2.48K with approximately $303B market capitalization and $4.9B volume; total crypto market capitalization is around $2.69T with more than $53B daily volume. BTC dominance near 57% tells me liquidity is still concentrated, not yet fully distributed into altcoins.
My personal conclusion is cautiously bullish for the next seven days, but I am not ignoring the macro risk. I believe the market can recover if the Fed delivers what is already priced in and its guidance reduces the probability of an extended tightening cycle. But if yields and oil continue moving higher, I would expect volatility to remain elevated.
The most important thing for me is therefore not predicting one candle or one CPI number. It is following the entire transmission mechanism: inflation changes Fed expectations; Fed expectations move Treasury yields; yields influence liquidity and valuations; liquidity determines whether money flows toward BTC, ETH, altcoins or equities.
That is my market thesis for the coming week: watch the Fed, watch yields, watch oil, watch liquidity, and let BTC price action confirm the direction. If BTC breaks higher with volume while yields stabilize, I will become more bullish on ETH, altcoins and technology stocks. If yields break higher and BTC loses support, I will protect capital and wait for a better setup.#8月CPI数据出炉 #ShareWeekly #weeklyshare

#GateUSExpandsTo37StateLicenses
Gate US has reached another major milestone: 37 state-level compliant licenses across the United States, with Massachusetts becoming the latest addition through its Money Transmitter License.
At first glance, “37 licenses” may look like just another regulatory number. But when I look deeper, I see something much bigger: Gate is steadily building the foundations required to compete in one of the world’s most important and demanding financial markets.
This is not the kind of growth that happens overnight.
Trading volume can increase quickly. A new product can be launched quickly. A marketing campaign can create attention quickly. But regulatory infrastructure is completely different. It requires time, resources, compliance systems, risk controls, operational discipline and continuous commitment.
That is exactly why I believe Gate US reaching 37 state-level licenses deserves serious attention.
The Massachusetts MTL is another piece of a much larger U.S. expansion strategy. Gate US has now built a regulatory footprint covering 47 U.S. states and territories where it is licensed or otherwise authorized, showing that its American expansion is not simply a short-term experiment.
In my opinion, this is one of the most important developments for Gate because the future of crypto will not be decided by trading volume alone.
The next stage of the industry will be about trust.
Users will increasingly ask: Is this platform regulated? Is it operating responsibly? Is my platform prepared for changing rules? Does it have the infrastructure to protect users? Can it continue operating as the market becomes more institutional and mainstream?
These questions are becoming just as important as fees, liquidity and available assets.
And this is where Gate’s strategy becomes particularly interesting.
Gate has spent years building itself into a global digital-asset ecosystem, but the U.S. market requires a different level of discipline. Regulatory requirements can vary significantly from state to state, which means obtaining and maintaining licenses is not simply a matter of submitting one application.
Every additional state represents another regulatory relationship, another operational requirement and another layer of responsibility.
So when Gate moves from 36 to 37 state-level licenses, I don't see only one more number.
I see another brick added to a much larger foundation.
This is why I personally believe compliance is becoming one of the strongest competitive advantages in the entire crypto industry.
For years, people mostly compared exchanges through trading volume, number of listed assets, fees and product variety. Those metrics remain important, but the industry is becoming much more mature.
The exchange competition of the future will be different.
It will be a competition between platforms that can combine compliance, liquidity, technology, security, products and localization into one powerful ecosystem.
And Gate is increasingly positioning itself for that competition.
If someone asks me which moat matters most for a global trading platform, I would put compliance at the top of my list.
Not because liquidity is unimportant.
Not because products are unimportant.
And definitely not because localization is unimportant.
But because compliance creates the foundation on which everything else can operate.
Without regulatory access, even excellent technology has limitations.
Without trust, even deep liquidity cannot guarantee long-term loyalty.
Without localization, global products may fail to properly connect with local users.
And without strong products, compliance alone cannot create a competitive trading experience.
That is why I see these four areas as interconnected.
Compliance creates the foundation.
Liquidity creates execution quality.
Products create utility.
Localization creates connection with users
Security creates trust.
And trust brings everything together.
From my perspective, Gate’s biggest strength is not simply that it can add another product or another trading pair. Its bigger advantage is the ability to keep expanding its ecosystem while simultaneously building regulatory and operational infrastructure.
That is a much harder achievement.
A platform can copy a feature.
A platform can reduce fees.
A platform can launch a campaign.
But building a broad regulatory footprint across multiple jurisdictions is much more difficult to replicate.
This is where a genuine long-term moat can emerge.
The U.S. market is especially important because it is one of the largest financial markets in the world and has enormous potential for digital-asset adoption. But it is also a market where regulatory expectations can be demanding.
Therefore, I see Gate US’s expansion as a strategic investment rather than merely a marketing milestone.
The Massachusetts approval is another signal that Gate is continuing to invest in the infrastructure required for its American ambitions.
And I believe the bigger story is what could come next.
If Gate continues expanding its regulatory coverage, strengthening compliance systems, improving local operations and simultaneously maintaining competitive liquidity and product innovation, the value of this infrastructure could become much greater over time.
Imagine an exchange that does not only have global reach, but also understands the regulatory environment of individual markets.
That is a completely different level of globalization.
Real global expansion is not simply opening an application to users in another country.
Real global expansion means being able to operate responsibly within that market.
It means understanding local rules.
It means building appropriate compliance controls.
It means supporting local users.
It means adapting products.
It means maintaining security.
And it means earning trust over time.
That is why I believe Gate’s U.S. strategy deserves more attention than it is receiving.
The number 37 is impressive, but the direction is even more impressive.
Gate US previously expanded rapidly from 23 to 36 state MTLs, and now Massachusetts has pushed the total to 37. That progression shows a continued commitment to strengthening its U.S. footprint rather than treating regulatory expansion as a one-time objective.
For me, this is exactly the type of growth I want to see from a major crypto platform.
Not just louder marketing.
Not just bigger numbers.
Not just more hype.
Infrastructure.
Compliance.
Security.
Liquidity.
Innovation.
Localization.
That is sustainable growth.
I also believe this development reflects how quickly the crypto industry itself is changing.
The market is moving toward a future where traditional finance and digital assets increasingly interact. Institutional participation is growing, professional traders are becoming more sophisticated, and regulators are paying closer attention to how crypto platforms operate.
In that environment, exchanges that invested early in compliance infrastructure may have an important advantage.
The winners of the next crypto cycle may not simply be the platforms with the biggest marketing budgets.
They could be the platforms that have already built the infrastructure necessary to operate at scale.
That is why Gate’s U.S. progress is interesting to me.
It represents preparation.
And preparation often becomes an advantage when the market enters its next major phase.
Of course, I would not say that having 37 licenses automatically guarantees success. A license is not the finish line. It is the beginning of an ongoing responsibility.
The real challenge is maintaining high standards, managing risk effectively, protecting users, meeting regulatory requirements and continuing to improve the platform.
That is where Gate will need to prove itself over the long term.
But I believe the direction is very positive.
A platform that continuously expands its regulatory footprint while continuing to invest in technology, products and liquidity is building something much harder to replace.
And that is the part I find most attractive about this story.
Gate is not simply trying to be another crypto exchange.
It is increasingly trying to build a global financial infrastructure layer for digital assets.
That is a much bigger ambition.
From my own perspective as someone who follows Gate closely, I have always believed that Gate’s biggest strength is its willingness to keep expanding and adapting.
Whether it is trading products, Web3, global markets, creator activity, new services or regulatory expansion, Gate continues to build a broader ecosystem.
Now the U.S. regulatory footprint is becoming another major part of that story.
37 state-level compliant licenses is therefore not just a headline for me.
It is evidence of continued progress.
It is evidence that compliance is being treated as an important part of expansion.
And it is evidence that Gate understands something many companies learn only after the market becomes mature: growth without a strong foundation is fragile, but growth built on infrastructure can become sustainable.
If I had to choose between an exchange that grows extremely fast without sufficient infrastructure and an exchange that grows steadily while building compliance, security and long-term foundations, I would choose the second one every time.
Because crypto is no longer only about surviving the next market cycle.
The biggest opportunity is building for the next decade.
And that requires patience.
It requires discipline.
It requires trust.
It requires global reach combined with local responsibility.
Gate US reaching 37 state-level compliant licenses is another step toward that vision.
For me, the most important question is no longer simply “How many users does an exchange have?”
The better question is:
“How strong is the infrastructure behind those users?”
That is where the real competitive advantage will be created.
Gate’s 37-license milestone tells me that the company is continuing to build that infrastructure in one of the most important markets in the world.
And if Gate continues combining regulatory progress with deep liquidity, strong products, security, technology and genuine localization, I believe its U.S. presence could become one of the most important components of its global growth story.
37 licenses today may look like a number.
But behind that number are years of work, compliance investment, regulatory engagement and infrastructure building.
And in my opinion, that is the real story.
The future of crypto belongs to platforms that can combine innovation with responsibility.
Gate is moving in that direction.
And I will be watching the next milestone closely.
#GateUS全美合规牌照增至37张

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‍#BTC #ETH $BTC $ETH ‌

#美国8月PPI录得5.4%高于预期
The Producer Price Index (PPI), showing a 5.4% year-over-year increase, is certainly higher than market expectations. This reinforces the notion that inflationary pressures are persistent, particularly at a time when employment remains strong. The key tension now lies in whether the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will confirm this trend or show signs of cooling.
Here is my view on the risk ranking across asset classes:
US Equities usually react first, as investors immediately price in Fed policy expectations.
A higher CPI could reignite fears of interest rate hikes and put pressure on growth stocks.
Defensive sectors (utilities, consumer staples) may hold up better.
Bitcoin (BTC)
usually lags behind equities in its reaction but can exhibit sharper volatility when liquidity expectations shift.
If CPI is high, risk-off flows could impact BTC in the short term.
If CPI falls, BTC could rally as the "hard money" narrative gains strength.
Gold generally reacts following movements in bond yields and the dollar.
Strong inflation + strong employment = higher yields → short-term negative for gold.
However, if CPI confirms persistent inflation, gold could see demand as a hedge.
Trading mindset:
Aggressive investors: Take positions ahead of the CPI release, betting that the inflation surprise will persist.
Cautious investors: Wait for CPI confirmation before committing, as it is the Fed's primary inflation indicator. Personally, I think stocks will move first, BTC will follow with volatility, and gold will rise gradually depending on yields.
Now, would you prefer to take a position in advance (taking on risk before the CPI release) or wait for confirmation?
‍$NAS100 $BTC $XAUUSD $XAUAUD

$SPCX
Ripped from 112 to a high near 152 this week, now consolidating around 143.58 (+0.25%).
SuperTrend flipped red intraday after rejecting 148.43, so short-term it's taking a breather before the next leg.
This is the tokenized way to get pre-IPO SpaceX exposure without actually holding equity, worth remembering it's a mirror note not real shares.

Maple finance product roadmap is clearly the main topic so far heading into the September Community AMA.
People want to know what maplefinance is building next, what’s shipping, and where the protocol is headed.
With Maple expanding its product ecosystem and bringing more yield-bearing assets and lending opportunities onchain, the roadmap could be one of the most important parts of the AMA.
Stay bullish on $SYRUP
#DeFi

#Gate用户突破6000万 I thought I had made a smart trade… until I watched the chart continue without me. 😂
It was one of those BTC trades where everything suddenly started looking bullish. The price was moving strongly, candles were turning green, and for once I felt like I had entered at the right time. I didn't want to get greedy, so I decided to take a small profit and close the position.
My profit?
Around +$5.
At that moment, I genuinely felt like a professional. 😂 I looked at the green P&L and thought, “Perfect. Profit is profit.”
So I sold.
And then BTC decided to teach me a lesson.
Literally shortly after I closed the trade, the price started pushing higher again. One green candle became another, then another. I was sitting there watching the chart thinking, “Okay… maybe this is just a small move.”
It wasn't.
The market kept climbing.
The funniest part was that I had just closed my position because I was afraid of losing the $5 profit. Now I was watching the market make a move that could have turned that small profit into something much larger.
That feeling was painful. 😂
I wasn't losing money anymore, but somehow watching the trade continue without me felt worse than taking a small loss.
I remember looking at the chart and thinking:
“Why did I sell so early?”
At the time, my mindset was simple: if the trade is green, take the money before the market changes direction.
There was nothing wrong with taking profit. The problem was that I had no actual plan behind the decision.
I didn't have a target.
I didn't have a resistance level where I expected the move to slow down.
I didn't have a trailing stop.
I simply saw a small profit and became afraid of giving it back.
That was the real mistake.
The market didn't force me to sell.
My emotions did.
After that trade, I started looking at profit-taking completely differently. I realized that the goal isn't to sell at the exact top because nobody consistently knows where the exact top is.
The goal is to have a plan before the trade starts.
If I enter BTC or ETH because I expect a move toward a specific resistance zone, then I should already know what I want to do when price reaches that area.
Maybe I take 25% or 30% profit at the first target.
Maybe I move my stop-loss closer after the market confirms the direction.
Maybe I leave part of the position open for a bigger move.
The important thing is that the decision should come from the trading plan, not from the emotion of seeing a green number on the screen.
My old mindset was:
“I'm up $5. Take it before it's gone.”
My current mindset is:
“Why am I taking profit here, and what does the chart say?”
That difference sounds small, but it completely changed how I approach trades.
I also learned that there are two different mistakes a trader can make.
One is refusing to take profit when the setup is clearly weakening.
The other is taking profit too quickly simply because you're scared the market might reverse.
I was guilty of the second one.
And BTC made sure I remembered it. 😂
The funny thing is that taking a small profit wasn't actually a bad result. +$5 is still better than -$5. The lesson wasn't “never take profit early.”
The lesson was: don't make your exit decision randomly.
Sometimes the market will reverse immediately after you sell, and you'll look like a genius.
Sometimes it will continue another 10% and you'll feel like you just sold the winning lottery ticket.
You can't control that.
What you can control is whether your entry, target, stop-loss and position size were planned before the trade.
That's what I eventually started doing with BTC and ETH.
Instead of trying to catch the entire move, I started thinking in levels. First target. Second target. Invalidation. Risk/reward. Then I could take partial profit without completely abandoning the position.
That removed a lot of the emotional pressure.
And honestly, it also made trading much less stressful.
Today, if I take a small profit and BTC suddenly pumps afterward, I still laugh at myself a little. 😂 But I don't immediately chase the market to get back into the position.
That's another lesson I learned from that trade.
Missing a move is not the same as losing money.
The old me would have watched BTC pump after selling and immediately wanted to buy back higher.
The current me would rather wait for the next setup.
Because the market doesn't owe me the continuation of a trade I already closed.
There will always be another opportunity.
That one early exit taught me something I couldn't learn from a chart alone: profit-taking is good, but profit-taking with a plan is better.
I started that trade thinking I had finally become a smart trader because I locked in $5.
Then BTC continued higher without me and humbled me in real time. 😂
But that frustration became useful.
Now I don't ask only, “How much profit can I take?”
I ask:
“Where is my target, what confirms the move, and what is my plan if BTC keeps going?”
That little difference turned one of my funniest trading mistakes into one of my most useful lessons.
Sometimes you take profit.
Sometimes you leave money on the table.
The important thing is to make sure your next decision is based on a strategy not on fear, greed, or one very tempting green candle. 😂