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🇺🇸 Market Closed Note
Semiconductors fell 5% last week, and SPY barely moved.
SMH -4.5% SOXX -5.6%. The broader market stayed stable; chips were the only ones bleeding.
NVDA fell from 236 to 195—down 17% from its high. No one is calling it a bear market; chips have already turned bearish on their own.
Honestly, I’m not sure whether next week will bring a rebound or an accelerated selloff. On Friday, volume surged and the weekly chart broke down—it's ugly.
The most intriguing part is that SPY didn’t follow the decline. Money didn’t flee—it just rotated elsewhere.
Next week, if SMH breaks 580, the issue will spread from chips to the entire AI narrative.
This is the only thing you need to watch next week—everything else is noise.