Jukov

So far, the AI story shows up only in the balance sheets of the Mag 7.
Revenue per employee and margins keep climbing there & the rest of the market: Margins flat, revenue per head among small caps actually declining.
The productivity boost remains a concentration story, not a broad-based phenomenon, and you can see it in the market's performance: record highs in the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq while only Tech and Energy rise and 9 of 11 sectors fall.
Textbook picture of narrow breadth: the index stays alive because a handful of megacaps mask the majority of weakening individual names.
Two w

💭 Market thoughts
While crypto clearly entered a bear trend with no clear bottom signal so far, the Stock Market looks very different:
Friday was one of the most brutal intraday sell-offs in a long while and yanked a lot of people out of their euphoric dream state of 'up only'. While I believe that a Relief-Bounce is technically warranted in the short term, the mid-term perspective is far more tricky & boils basically down to one question:
➡️ Who will win?
A) Orange man telling everyone that the market will go up and that any seller is a pussy
B) Macro factors and technicals
Personally I expe

The TGA pumped to $830bln by May 27th, while at the same time reverse repo volume trended toward zero.
=> Liquidity is getting drained out of the system.
Markets get a good bit more sensitive when that happens & $BTC is always the leading indicator for other less-liquidity-sensitive markets.
Mid-July we'll get hyperscaler earnings & another CPI print. That's where I see the first real risk for stocks to get a proper correction.

> “$BTC is a failed asset prone to quantum attacks, maybe already in 4yrs”
> “Saylor has mismanaged his debt and treasury and $STRC depegged”
> “crypto is a failed asset.”
> “Bitcoin has a lower market cap than anthropic IPO alone.”
> “there is no reason to trade Crypto over stocks so the bottom is not near”

Apollo Research now anticipates that AI will create more jobs rather than fewer, thanks to the Jevons paradox.
This is supported by current data, which has yet to show any downward employment trend, as well as the historical precedent of MRI and CT scans: due to technical innovation, the cost per scan has decreased by about 70% since the early 2000s.
As a result, roughly ten times as many scans are performed today, and both the employment rate and salaries for radiologists and radiologic technologists have more than doubled.

"Normally, when interest rates rise, spending that requires financing slows. This is what we are seeing for housing and autos. Both those sectors are very sensitive to higher rates.
But the data center buildout is different. It doesn’t matter what the Fed does. There is FOMO among hyperscalers, and AI spending is not sensitive to higher interest rates.
In fact, despite the move higher in rates in recent months, the consensus forecast for capex in 2027 continues to rise, see chart below.
In other words, there are no signs that the market is expecting a slowdown in AI capex next year.
Combined w

If we look at the relative performance of the $RSP (Equal weighted S&P500) vs the actualy $SPX it becomes quite clear that we...
a) never truly broke the weekly downtrend
b) every "broadening out" attempt was just a fake-out before liquidity rushed back to the hyperscalers (until last week, we've seen another attempt)
I wonder how this chart looks in a year or two from now.

On one side, hyperscalers will continue to hyperscale, have $500b+ capex gains concentrated on the top.
On the other side, a lot of the "493" other firms finally could see AI margin expansion too. Making curre

💭Some thoughts:
Been bearish on stocks since early 2026. Got good profits on shorts in the past few weeks, thanks to uncertainty reaching new ATHs and the looming possibility of global supply chain destruction / energy crisis.
What we're seeing now however ($Q & $SPY almost back to ATH, SMH literally printing ATH) makes people lose their minds on the timeline. Most went short AFTER Trumps "we delete a civilization" escalation rhetoric, we took some profits at that point. It's all about timing and zooming out to understand what are "real moves" and what not imo:
The whole rally doesn't surpri

Some Charts
$SPX

In hindsight it will be obvious ?

Insane correction. Obviously this is the bottom. It can’t get any worse!
$SPY

Whatever asset gets listed on crypto exchanges goes to shit. First metals, now even the s&p500. Truly a shit-midas curse or crypto

💭 Weekly outlook, some thoughts about Oil
Intraday volatility has spiked hard this week. But zoom out to weekly closes and most major indices are holding surprisingly well – except European equities, which once again proved the rule: when there's global uncertainty, Europe gets hit hardest and fastest.
The obvious headline is oil. WTI up ~33% on the week is eye-catching – but we've seen higher levels before, and more importantly: oil no longer drives electricity prices the way it once did... <10% contribution to power generation means no automatic energy crisis.
However, yields moved up shar