Jukov

$ETH - I am ready to get hurt again... but damn, it looks good here.

For a long time, Chinas state-driven capitalism was scolded & viewed negatively by the West, and the system was seen as "artificial" and state-centric....
Funny how times change, and how people are slowly realizing which state system probably always had more legitimacy than the West cared to admit…
Because meanwhile, the West (above all the USA) is copying Chinas state-driven capitalism like never before, yet it doesn’t use this power of intervention to strengthen the system (for example, by making housing affordable for its population, as China has done), but rather to pump billions into tec

💭 Weekly Outlook
5-Day Scoreboard:
S&P +1.8% | Nasdaq +0.7% | DAX +4.5% | BTC +4.9% | Oil -2.3% | Gold +2.1%
Welcome to H2. The first July trading days are seasonally strong, and even with July 3rd missing (US holiday), the tape delivered okayish (see above).
➡️ Newsflow was thin, as flagged last week. Still, a few things we learned:
> Warsh stays committed to ZERO forward guidance .Sintra gave nothing new on the rate path. Balance-sheet runoff (QT) + inflation remain his headline themes.
>The Supreme Court clarified: the President can remove Fed governors "for cause", but only after a heari

Macro headwinds starting to ease?

What do we think? Too obvious?
bitcoin:native

Current regime:
> Gold down
> Oil down
> $BTC down
> Semis/MAG7 down
> $SP500 down/flat
How does that make sense?
Simple: in the current market environment all these moves are based on the same thing:
The $DXY jumped rapidly this week and a strong dollar means that it drags down everything what is priced against it…
All while the Fed turned hawkish (evidently as 2Y yield grinding higher, repricing hikes (=> currently 50% for two hikes this year) which drains additional liquidity.
As gold is falling too, it gives us the important hint that this is NOT a fear/growth-scare move though (otherwise

Crypto traders when you tell them for one year straight that there are plenty of opportunities in other markets

So far, the AI story shows up only in the balance sheets of the Mag 7.
Revenue per employee and margins keep climbing there & the rest of the market: Margins flat, revenue per head among small caps actually declining.
The productivity boost remains a concentration story, not a broad-based phenomenon, and you can see it in the market's performance: record highs in the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq while only Tech and Energy rise and 9 of 11 sectors fall.
Textbook picture of narrow breadth: the index stays alive because a handful of megacaps mask the majority of weakening individual names.
Two w

💭 Market thoughts
While crypto clearly entered a bear trend with no clear bottom signal so far, the Stock Market looks very different:
Friday was one of the most brutal intraday sell-offs in a long while and yanked a lot of people out of their euphoric dream state of 'up only'. While I believe that a Relief-Bounce is technically warranted in the short term, the mid-term perspective is far more tricky & boils basically down to one question:
➡️ Who will win?
A) Orange man telling everyone that the market will go up and that any seller is a pussy
B) Macro factors and technicals
Personally I expe

The TGA pumped to $830bln by May 27th, while at the same time reverse repo volume trended toward zero.
=> Liquidity is getting drained out of the system.
Markets get a good bit more sensitive when that happens & $BTC is always the leading indicator for other less-liquidity-sensitive markets.
Mid-July we'll get hyperscaler earnings & another CPI print. That's where I see the first real risk for stocks to get a proper correction.