Jukov

Never in my life I've been more sure about the fact that retail is absolute NOT here in the RH trenches. In none of previous trenches seasons I was that sure lol

Some thoughts
Robinhood on-chain feels veeeeeeery PvP right now. Many opportunistic "devs" obviously bridged and rushed to launch their shit projects & literally 200-300 people dumping on each other with a handful of "sustainable" (I guess we have to assess that definition over the next days) runners left.
Shills are outweighing fundamentals by magnitudes and a lot of vapor is running way harder than their fundamentally more sound counterpart.
This being said, I want to believe that these are just early innings and a flight for quality is about to happen at some point (maybe after a short rese

I think the trend on RH Chain will be tech projects with a direct connection to TradFi/RWA narratives rather than memes.
1st, because that's a very good PMF for being on RH Chain, & 2nd because of the underlying hopium that @vladtenev will endorse it, if its real & useful.

💭 Weekly Outlook
5-Day Scoreboard:
S&P +1.2% | Nasdaq +1.7% | DAX -2.8% | CSI300 -1.3% | BTC +1.1% | Oil +3.1% | Gold -1.3%
We might finally be nearing the end of the ~2-month sideways grind. Plenty of catalysts lined up this week, the only open question is which direction we break out of the channel. US tape leaned green, the "rest of the world" (read: Germany + China) had a rougher few days, and only oil showed real strength, though the move stays surprisingly humane given the Strait of Hormuz appears shut again. Yields across the board ticking up too.
➡️ A few things worth flagging from la

There is excitement and peace in selling a position at a loss and closing a million browser tabs all at once after doing hours of UNFINISHED research, not being sure which ones matter and which ones not.
Making headspace is one of the most undervalued skills out there.

Everyone always making fun of Saylor buying tops, why would you think he doesn't sell bottoms too?

Do not wait for Saylor blowing up as the final sign for a bottom. It will not happen and you will stay sidelined.

GM
Asian markets (especially KOSPI & NIKKEI) selling off and dragging down everything else with it: Gold -2% / Silver -5% / SP500 -0.5% / NDQ -1.3% / BTC -2%
This is the new normal:
> Every dip is bigger than what we've been used to, thanks to a higher overall VIX (& a new Fed Chair who doesn't give any outlook anymore).
> But also: every dip could be the beginning of the end. Emotions run higher, adding volatility on top.

Many expected Warsh to be overly dovish as he was Trumps favorite Choice and was pretty much giving giga dovish speeches with lots of nice words towards Trump, Growth-Positive singals and a laissez-faire outlook.
I think market needs to digest now (correct here a bit) that there was no dovishness to be found and on top of that also no more (dovish) guidance. A big potential bull-joker just got eliminated.

It makes sense why $STRC does not trade en-par even purely mathematically, ignoring all other factors.
Math behind $STRC in short:
- $STRC sits at $93.3 and pays 11.5% dividend
- $SATA sits at $100 (en par) and pays 13% dividend
If you buy $STRC here, you get 12.33% effective yield out of it once it re-pegs (which is a risk-premium itself people want probably some extra yield for).
So if $STRC goes down, closer to $89, it now pays out 13% yield as well (this ignores the implied risk-premium you pay of course based on your own preference). If $STRC goes back up to $100, it would still pay 1.7