Current regime:
> Gold down
> Oil down
> $BTC down
> Semis/MAG7 down
> $SP500 down/flat
How does that make sense?
Simple: in the current market environment all these moves are based on the same thing:
The $DXY jumped rapidly this week and a strong dollar means that it drags down everything what is priced against it…
All while the Fed turned hawkish (evidently as 2Y yield grinding higher, repricing hikes (=> currently 50% for two hikes this year) which drains additional liquidity.
As gold is falling too, it gives us the important hint that this is NOT a fear/growth-scare move though (otherwise

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Jukov

06-23 08:23

GM
Asian markets (especially KOSPI & NIKKEI) selling off and dragging down everything else with it: Gold -2% / Silver -5% / SP500 -0.5% / NDQ -1.3% / BTC -2%
This is the new normal:
> Every dip is bigger than what we've been used to, thanks to a higher overall VIX (& a new Fed Chair who doesn't give any outlook anymore).
> But also: every dip could be the beginning of the end. Emotions run higher, adding volatility on top.

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Jukov

06-17 19:47

Many expected Warsh to be overly dovish as he was Trumps favorite Choice and was pretty much giving giga dovish speeches with lots of nice words towards Trump, Growth-Positive singals and a laissez-faire outlook.
I think market needs to digest now (correct here a bit) that there was no dovishness to be found and on top of that also no more (dovish) guidance. A big potential bull-joker just got eliminated.

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Jukov

06-16 18:08

It makes sense why $STRC does not trade en-par even purely mathematically, ignoring all other factors.
Math behind $STRC in short:
- $STRC sits at $93.3 and pays 11.5% dividend
- $SATA sits at $100 (en par) and pays 13% dividend
If you buy $STRC here, you get 12.33% effective yield out of it once it re-pegs (which is a risk-premium itself people want probably some extra yield for).
So if $STRC goes down, closer to $89, it now pays out 13% yield as well (this ignores the implied risk-premium you pay of course based on your own preference). If $STRC goes back up to $100, it would still pay 1.7

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Jukov

06-16 06:51

Crypto traders when you tell them for one year straight that there are plenty of opportunities in other markets

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06-09 12:24

So far, the AI story shows up only in the balance sheets of the Mag 7.
Revenue per employee and margins keep climbing there & the rest of the market: Margins flat, revenue per head among small caps actually declining.
The productivity boost remains a concentration story, not a broad-based phenomenon, and you can see it in the market's performance: record highs in the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq while only Tech and Energy rise and 9 of 11 sectors fall.
Textbook picture of narrow breadth: the index stays alive because a handful of megacaps mask the majority of weakening individual names.
Two w

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Jukov

06-08 15:16

Next CPI in two days btw. Will have a big impact this time, as it's the second reading after the surge we've seen in inflation numbers. Market will take it as a trend confirmation or as a sign that the spike was transitionary & bid/sell accordingly.
Wednesday 8:30AM EST.

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Jukov

06-07 10:11

💭 Market thoughts
While crypto clearly entered a bear trend with no clear bottom signal so far, the Stock Market looks very different:
Friday was one of the most brutal intraday sell-offs in a long while and yanked a lot of people out of their euphoric dream state of 'up only'. While I believe that a Relief-Bounce is technically warranted in the short term, the mid-term perspective is far more tricky & boils basically down to one question:
➡️ Who will win?
A) Orange man telling everyone that the market will go up and that any seller is a pussy
B) Macro factors and technicals
Personally I expe

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Jukov

06-06 16:12

Charts speak for themselves imho
$NOCK $OCT $SERV telling us they all want to gap much higher once $BTC finds a bottom

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Jukov

06-03 22:00

The TGA pumped to $830bln by May 27th, while at the same time reverse repo volume trended toward zero.
=> Liquidity is getting drained out of the system.
Markets get a good bit more sensitive when that happens & $BTC is always the leading indicator for other less-liquidity-sensitive markets.
Mid-July we'll get hyperscaler earnings & another CPI print. That's where I see the first real risk for stocks to get a proper correction.

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06-03 07:23

> “$BTC is a failed asset prone to quantum attacks, maybe already in 4yrs”
> “Saylor has mismanaged his debt and treasury and $STRC depegged”
> “crypto is a failed asset.”
> “Bitcoin has a lower market cap than anthropic IPO alone.”
> “there is no reason to trade Crypto over stocks so the bottom is not near”

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👍👍👍 👍👍👍

Jukov

06-01 13:46

Apollo Research now anticipates that AI will create more jobs rather than fewer, thanks to the Jevons paradox.
This is supported by current data, which has yet to show any downward employment trend, as well as the historical precedent of MRI and CT scans: due to technical innovation, the cost per scan has decreased by about 70% since the early 2000s.
As a result, roughly ten times as many scans are performed today, and both the employment rate and salaries for radiologists and radiologic technologists have more than doubled.

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Jukov

05-27 18:50

"Normally, when interest rates rise, spending that requires financing slows. This is what we are seeing for housing and autos. Both those sectors are very sensitive to higher rates.
But the data center buildout is different. It doesn’t matter what the Fed does. There is FOMO among hyperscalers, and AI spending is not sensitive to higher interest rates.
In fact, despite the move higher in rates in recent months, the consensus forecast for capex in 2027 continues to rise, see chart below.
In other words, there are no signs that the market is expecting a slowdown in AI capex next year.
Combined w

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Jukov

05-27 13:20

NOCK NOCK
We’re early

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05-23 14:07

Now that’s what I call capitulation.
All OGs. Banks. Last remaining cringe KOLs. Cuban. Trump.
The Final sentiment cleanse.
My guess: Price has to go a bit deeper first to trigger a final cascade (probably aligned w a tradfi correction) then up for a long time.

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Jukov

04-16 19:08

If we look at the relative performance of the $RSP (Equal weighted S&P500) vs the actualy $SPX it becomes quite clear that we...
a) never truly broke the weekly downtrend
b) every "broadening out" attempt was just a fake-out before liquidity rushed back to the hyperscalers (until last week, we've seen another attempt)
I wonder how this chart looks in a year or two from now.

On one side, hyperscalers will continue to hyperscale, have $500b+ capex gains concentrated on the top.
On the other side, a lot of the "493" other firms finally could see AI margin expansion too. Making curre

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