💭 Weekly Outlook

5-Day Scoreboard:
S&P +1.2% | Nasdaq +1.7% | DAX -2.8% | CSI300 -1.3% | BTC +1.1% | Oil +3.1% | Gold -1.3%
We might finally be nearing the end of the ~2-month sideways grind. Plenty of catalysts lined up this week, the only open question is which direction we break out of the channel. US tape leaned green, the "rest of the world" (read: Germany + China) had a rougher few days, and only oil showed real strength, though the move stays surprisingly humane given the Strait of Hormuz appears shut again. Yields across the board ticking up too.
➡️ A few things worth flagging from last week:
> Oil firmer on Hormus headlines, but the market's shrugged it off mostly... tells you how much conviction is actually behind the geopolitics trade. Same as the last 50 times. The boy who cried wolf etc.
➡️ What's coming this week:
It really funnels into one day: Tuesday:
> US CPI: we expect headline to drop noticeably from +4.2% to +3.9-4.0%, while core stays sticky at +2.9%. Core has crept up for months but hasn't broken the disinflation narrative outright yet.
> Same day, Kevin Warsh testifies before Congress. Don't expect fireworks. He'll stay true to form and dodge any pre-commitment on the rate path.
And then the real catalyst: Earnings season kicks off, traditionally with the big banks.
> Tue: Citi, Goldman, JPM, BofA, Wells Fargo
> Wed: ASML, Blackrock, Morgan Stanley
> Thu: TSMC, Netflix
➡️ And here's one thing not much ppl speak about:
Consensus is running at a spicy +22% EPS growth. That number still carries the one-off through Q1'27 from marking up the AI stakes of Amazon, Alphabet and NVIDIA (other income). So its kinda juiced. Strip those ~9-10pp out and you're STILL left with solid double-digit growth on paper.
BUT: ~40% of that total growth comes from just two names, NVIDIA and Micron. Breadth is crazy narrow. The index is riding a handful of horses, and everyone's pretending that's fine. If the last two horses break though, people will start to realize.
Happy new week.