Citigroup: Quantum computing breakthroughs are accelerating, and Bitcoin faces "excess quantum risk"

ME News message: On May 18 (UTC+8), Citibank stated in its latest report that the progress of quantum computing technology is faster than market expectations, accelerating potential security risks faced by cryptocurrencies and internet infrastructure, with Bitcoin considered one of the assets with the “largest risk exposure.”

The report noted that the ECDSA elliptic-curve cryptographic system currently used by Bitcoin could, in theory, be cracked by sufficiently powerful quantum computers. In the future, attackers may also be able to derive private keys from publicly available public keys, thereby forging transactions and stealing assets.

Citibank analyst Alex Saunders said that because Bitcoin’s governance mechanism is relatively conservative and protocol upgrades are slower, it is more difficult for Bitcoin to quickly complete a quantum-resistant upgrade compared with PoS networks such as Ethereum.

The report estimates that currently about 6.5 million to 6.9 million BTC are at potential quantum risk due to exposed public keys, accounting for roughly one-third of the current circulating supply. Based on current prices, the value is approximately $450 billion. This includes some early P2PK addresses and wallets believed to be associated with Satoshi Nakamoto.

Citibank also warned of the “Harvest Now, Decrypt Later” risk—meaning attackers collect encrypted data first, and then decrypt it later once quantum computing power becomes mature. However, Citibank remains positive about the crypto industry’s long-term ability to adapt, believing that blockchain can still complete the migration in the future through post-quantum cryptography and protocol restructuring. The report also mentioned that the BIP-360 and BIP-361 upgrade proposals being discussed in the Bitcoin community are worth paying attention to.

(Source: BlockBeats)