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Institutions: Nvidia’s Q2 earnings beat expectations has become a consensus view, while the market closely watches its AI capital expenditure guidance
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh noted that a second-quarter earnings beat has become the consensus expectation, with the market focused on the outlook for AI spending. He forecasts adjusted earnings per share of approximately $2.08 and revenue of approximately $92 billion, saying the actual results could exceed expectations. He maintained an Outperform rating and a $300 price target. He also said Wall Street’s forecast of $550 billion in AI revenue next year is conservative, citing Wall Street financing and SpaceX’s plan to build a solar manufacturing facility in Austin, which could generate an additional hundreds of billions of dollars in AI revenue.
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CryptoQuant: Bitcoin Enters the Early Stages of a New Bull Market, but Shows Signs of Short-Term Overheating
ME News, August 26 (UTC+8) — CryptoQuant Research released a report stating that Bitcoin has risen 24% to $80,000 since August 17, reaching a new high since May 15. Valuation metrics have clearly strengthened, with the CryptoQuant Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator score surging from 30 to 80 within a week, its most bullish level since October 2025, as 8 of the 10 indicators issued bullish signals. Spot demand is growing at its fastest pace since the end of last December, while spot and futures demand are expanding simultaneously for the first time since early October 2025. The report noted that this is a genuine shift in market conditions and the early stage of a new bull market, but it must break above the 365-day moving average at approximately $83,000 to be officially confirmed. In the short term, there are signs of overheating: traders’ unrealized profit margin has surged to 20.5% (since June 2025
BTC0.18%
ETH1.32%
XRP-4.91%
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AI Competes for Global Capital, Raising Fears That a Wave of Defaults Across 40 Countries Could Happen Again
[ME AI]() message: SemiAnalysis founder Dylan Patel and renowned podcast host Dwarkesh Patel believe that the trillions of dollars in debt financing needed to build AI infrastructure will significantly drive up global risk-free interest rates. This will not only severely damage traditional high-dividend assets but also trigger a “Volcker shock” similar to that of the 1980s, causing numerous developing countries to once again fall into sovereign debt default crises as financing costs surge. (Source: Wallstreetcn)
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Core Lightning Warns Users to Upgrade; Those Who Do Not Upgrade Should Take Their Nodes Offline
Core Lightning developers have received a large number of AI-generated CVE reports over the past 10 days, and confirmed that vulnerabilities requiring fixes exist. The team is escalating its response by releasing signed binaries and keeping the vulnerability details confidential for two weeks. All users are requested to complete the upgrade during this period; those who do not upgrade should take their nodes offline. Version 26.04 and earlier will no longer be supported.
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a16z: In the AI era, what’s truly scarce isn’t “taste,” but the social infrastructure for cultivating judgment
AI-driven cost reduction resulting in low-quality content and ethical anxiety is not a new phenomenon; taste is not a single ability but rather a form of professional judgment that encompasses assessments of success, information across different communities, and long-term training. Research shows that social influence and path dependence make breakout hits difficult to predict. Structural hole theory emphasizes that contact across communities can bring innovative perspectives, while AI finds it difficult to replace the tacit knowledge and trust built through long-term networks. Sullivan argues that after widespread adoption, the focus should be on verification and judgment, which must be developed through apprenticeships and long-term practice; if training systems are weakened, there will be a shortage of people with sound judgment and of the social infrastructure needed to support them in the future.
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Analysis: The U.S. dollar stages a sharp rebound, posting its biggest gain in nearly four weeks as inflation data reinforces expectations for a rate hike.
The U.S. dollar rebounded sharply on Wednesday as inflation remained elevated, prompting markets to once again predict that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates before the end of the year. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose at one point, while Treasury yields climbed, partially recovering losses triggered by Bessent’s introduction of measures to support the bond market. Data showed that PCE rose 3.7% year over year in July, nearly double the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, indicating that price pressures have yet to ease, weakening expectations for rapid rate cuts and increasing the likelihood of further tightening.
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April Crypto Financing Fell 74% Month Over Month to $659 Million, the Lowest Since July 2024
ME News disclosed on May 2 that total crypto financing in April was $659 million, down 74% from $2.6 billion in March, across 63 deals, bringing the cumulative total since the beginning of 2026 to approximately $5.64 billion. April marked the lowest level since July 2024. The decline in funding indicates weakening liquidity and risk appetite, with investors becoming more cautious. Financing has continued to decline since October 2025, while total market capitalization fell by approximately 37% over the same period. DeFi received the most financing, with 12 deals in April, while blockchain services and AI-related projects each recorded 8 deals. Market maker GSR was the most active investor that month, participating in 4 deals.
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Analyst: $80,000 Is a Key Resistance Level for Bitcoin; a Breakout Could Trigger a Short Squeeze to $84,000
According to Ali Martinez, Bitcoin remained range-bound in early May, with $80,000 serving as strong resistance. A breakout could trigger a short squeeze, with a target of $84,000; if it fails to break through, support lies at $75,000, $73,000, and $70,000. Amid the tug-of-war between bulls and bears, a daily breakout of the $75,000–$80,000 range could determine this month’s trend.
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Tens of Millions of Dollars Worth of Bitcoin Moved to Safety as BTC Sessions Reveals Follow-Up to Coldcard Vulnerability Disclosure
BTC Sessions helped Bitcoin holders affected by the Coldcard vulnerability move their funds to safety within weeks, protecting tens of millions of dollars in assets; but for many, it was too late—one community member lost 90%, while another woman lost everything. The incident may be the most serious self-custody event in Bitcoin’s history, prompting BTC Sessions to rethink asset custody and emphasize the importance of diversified security measures.
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BTC0.18%
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Bitcoin Proposes Introducing a Quantum-Safe Scheme to Provide a “Freeze-Then-Rescue” Path for Old Addresses
Paradigm has proposed verifiable address control timestamps (PACTs), providing early Bitcoin addresses with a rescue channel before the advent of quantum computing. Holders can use BIP-322 to prove control of an address and timestamp it on-chain through OpenTimestamps with a random salt, without moving the assets for now. If old addresses are later frozen due to quantum threats, once quantum-resistant STARKs are introduced, the network will accept a zero-knowledge proof submitted by the holder demonstrating that they controlled the address before the quantum era, thereby releasing the assets. This also provides a supplementary rescue path for BIP-32 wallets, provided that holders proactively create the commitment before an attack or freeze.
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BTC0.18%
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Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Visits Hanoi, Announces Strengthened Japan-Vietnam Cooperation in Energy, Minerals, AI, Semiconductors, and Space Exploration
AIMPACT News, May 2 (UTC+8) — During Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s visit to Hanoi, she stated that Japan will continue to strengthen cooperation with Vietnam in multiple key areas, including energy, the supply of critical minerals, artificial intelligence technology research and development and applications, semiconductor supply chain coordination, and exploration in the aerospace sector. The meeting focused on deepening the two countries’ economic and technological partnership. Against the backdrop of global supply chain restructuring, both sides hope to establish a closer cooperation framework in high-tech fields.
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Minnesota, United States, Legislates Ban on “AI Deepfake Nude” Apps
The Minnesota Legislature passed a bill banning websites/apps from providing AI tools that generate realistic nude images identifiable as specific individuals, as well as related advertising; victims may sue and recover actual damages, up to three times the damages, and punitive damages. The state attorney general may impose a maximum fine of $500,000 for each violation, with the fines used for victim services. If signed, the law will take effect on August 1 and apply only to new cases.
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Websea Responds to Withdrawal Restriction Issue
Websea announced on May 2 that user assets were secure and that no intentional misappropriation had been found. However, funds in its early high-yield investment products and GameFi sector had been continuously depleted. It would delist GameFi and negotiate financing with multiple strategic investment institutions, with withdrawals to be restored in phases once the funds were received. Withdrawals had previously been delayed or restricted multiple times, leading the community to question its liquidity and ability to honor redemptions. The announcement did not disclose an independent audit or a clear timeline for restoring withdrawals.
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Trump's Approval Rating Plummets as Republicans Rush to "Redraw Electoral Districts"
ME News, May 2 (UTC+8) — The Republican governors of Alabama, South Carolina, and Tennessee said on May 1 that they would push for congressional redistricting favorable to their party. The United States is scheduled to hold congressional midterm elections in November. Public opinion analysts believe that, with the conflict in Iran driving up U.S. oil prices and Republican President Trump’s approval rating remaining low, the Republican Party faces an “uphill battle” if it wants to maintain its narrow majority in the House of Representatives. (East News Agency) (Source: ODAILY)
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Quantitative Trading Giant Jane Street Paid $9.38 Billion in Compensation Last Year, Averaging $2.68 Million per Employee
According to reports, the quantitative trading firm paid $9.38 billion in compensation last year, or approximately $2.68 million per employee, and generated about $39.6 billion in trading revenue, surpassing many of its Wall Street peers. Since 2016, members’ equity has grown to approximately $45 billion, supporting investments in startups such as Anthropic, valued at approximately $800 billion, CoreWeave, and Fluidstack, while also financing expansion through loans and bonds. Its 2025 trading revenue may exceed that of Citadel Securities.
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Analysis: The Iran stalemate could leave U.S. President Trump worse off than before the war began
ME News reported on May 2 (UTC+8) that if global conflicts are not resolved, the negative economic impact will continue, including persistently high U.S. gasoline prices, which will increase pressure on Trump. Trump’s approval rating is currently declining, and this situation is also making the outlook for Republican candidates in the upcoming November midterm congressional elections even bleaker. (Source: MLion)
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Tens of Billions of Downloads! China’s Open-Source AI Large Models Deliver an Impressive Opening Report Card for the 15th Five-Year Plan
[ME AI]() At the State Council Information Office’s “Getting the 15th Five-Year Plan Off to a Good Start” press conference, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China’s open-source large AI models surpassed 10 billion cumulative downloads worldwide. This milestone highlights China’s strong capabilities in open-source large-model research and development, while also demonstrating the influence of Chinese AI technology in the global open-source ecosystem. (Source: MLion)
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Stanford Study: Workers Ages 22–25 Face the Greatest Impact from AI, While Higher Education Serves as a Buffer
[ME AI]() News: According to a report by Stanford’s Digital Economy Lab based on ADP data, generative AI has not caused large-scale job displacement across the United States, but recent graduates and newcomers to the workforce have been hit most directly. In highly impacted occupations such as software development and customer service, the employment rate for 22- to 25-year-olds is approximately 19% lower than in low-impact fields, while experienced workers are largely unaffected, indicating a “first-rung” employment collapse. (Source: MLion)
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On the Eve of Nvidia’s Earnings Report, a Key Test for the AI Rally as the Company Faces Significant “Expectation Premium” Pressure
Nvidia will release its earnings report after the market close, with the market expecting Q2 revenue to exceed $92 billion and Q3 revenue to reach approximately $103.7 billion. Analysts say that several metrics have continued to surpass expectations recently, but the company faces pressure from a premium valuation based on high expectations. Investors will focus on its reliance on major cloud providers, data center performance, gross margin, next-quarter guidance, and updates on the Chinese market. The stock fell 2.9% on Monday before rebounding 2.2% on Tuesday. The earnings report and guidance are viewed as catalysts for the next phase of the AI sector.
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AMZN-0.26%
MSFT0.98%
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