June 13 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis

🤯 News Sentiment:

June 12 surrounding news: Market关注SpaceX IPO related (such as natural gas suppliers benefiting), overall stock market/crypto analysis videos, and Trump-related updates. No significant major negative news, but macro uncertainties (geopolitical, policy) still exist.

June continues the pressure from May, Strategy small-scale BTC sales once triggered panic (but the company subsequently net bought), signs of distribution among institutions/whales are evident. The positive side is corporate adoption continues (such as large companies holding positions), and potential regulatory/adoption news (like the CLARITY Act). Overall news is neutral to slightly weak, dominated by FUD but without a crash.

🤯 Capital Flow:

ETF Flows: Early June faced heavy pressure, with a record 13 consecutive days of outflows (total in the billions), significant weekly outflows in May/early June (up to hundreds of millions to billions per week). Data from June 12 shows slight net inflow (around +$28M , contributed by BlackRock IBIT, etc.), but overall still trending outflow (AUM decreasing). This reflects profit-taking or rotation by institutions, but also some bottom-fishing.

Derivatives funding rates have recently been negative or low, indicating leverage shorts dominate, sometimes accompanied by liquidations (mainly longs). Whales/long-term holders have sold some, but retail/spot buying provides support. Overall, the capital environment remains a short-term pressure source, but negative funding rates often indicate potential for rebound.

🤯 Technical Analysis:

At this position, I still see a slight rebound after oversold conditions, but after the rebound, attention should be paid to a downward divergence phase, so the key focus now is on the 4-hour and daily levels. On the 4-hour chart, MACD has already risen above the zero line; on the daily chart, a golden cross is imminent, but the strength of the cross won't be very strong. It needs to move downward into a divergence to push the bulls higher. In summary, over the weekend, watch whether the 64,000 level can hold; if it does, expect continued oscillation upward; if not, expect fluctuations around 60,000-64,000.

As a long-term DCA investor (such as those favoring rational strategies like BTC/ETH), the current environment is suitable for phased accumulation, emphasizing position discipline and risk control. Data-driven approach, DYOR, monitor next week's ETF data, macro indicators, and on-chain flows. Market sentiment is already pessimistic, often a turning point.