Why are cryptocurrencies surging across the board? BTC rises over 4%, reclaims 63K, nearly 100k traders liquidated

On June 12, 2026, the cryptocurrency market experienced a strong rebound widely characterized by market participants as a "decisive counterattack." Bitcoin rapidly surged from a 24-hour low of $61,944, reaching a high of $63,933. As of the latest report, it stood at $63,595.5, up over 4% in 24 hours. Meanwhile, mainstream coins such as Ethereum, SOL, HYPE, XRP, and Dogecoin all followed the rally. The fear index still hovered between 12 and 15, with total liquidations across the network reaching $272 million, and over 97k contract traders being forcibly liquidated during the bullish move.

Nearly 100k Liquidations totaling $272 Million: What Market Structure Is the Bullish Reversal in?

The liquidation data triggered by this rebound shows that in the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the network reached $272 million, involving 96,962 traders. The largest single liquidation occurred in the Bitcoin futures market, amounting to $97k. Unlike previous liquidation events, which often saw large-scale forced unwinding on both long and short sides, this event displayed an extremely asymmetric distribution: short liquidations amounted to about $199 million, accounting for over 73% of total liquidations, while long liquidations were only about $72 million. This indicates a systemic short squeeze event.

But a key question is: why did such a dense accumulation of short positions form at this level? The answer requires tracing back to the leverage structure before the rebound began. According to Gate’s contract data, prior to the rebound, Bitcoin open interest remained around $6.24 billion, with longs accounting for 61%, and the active buy-sell ratio at 1.04, showing slightly more buying than selling but without overwhelming dominance. Meanwhile, the extreme negative funding rates in altcoin markets further exposed the structural imbalance of market sentiment. SOL perpetual contracts had a funding rate of -1.07%, ETH and STG contracts also had negative rates, with STG reaching as low as -1.602%. This structure implies that a large number of short positions were highly crowded in the same direction. Once the price turned, short covering would trigger a chain of buy orders. The recent rise of about 3.2% from $61,944 to $63,933 in Bitcoin was precisely driven by this "market structure with a dominant directional leverage buildup," leading to liquidation momentum.

Therefore, this rebound is not merely a price increase but a leverage deleveraging process with "cleansing" features. Shorts, operating under negative funding rates and low confidence, were betting on further decline below $60,000, but this logic was not supported by other market funds. Instead, a small amount of buy orders directly triggered a liquidation chain.

Geopolitical News Ignites the Rebound: Why Is the Market So Sensitive to Single Events?

The external trigger for this rebound was the announcement on June 11 by former U.S. President Trump on social media, claiming to cancel plans for a U.S. airstrike on Iran and stating that "the U.S.-Iran reconciliation agreement is about to be finalized," with the deal to be signed in Europe, and the Strait of Hormuz will be "reopened officially." As a result, international oil prices plummeted: WTI futures fell 4.01% to $86.42 per barrel, Brent crude dropped 4.27% to $89.12 per barrel. The risk aversion sentiment sharply declined, boosting U.S. stocks, with the S&P 500 rising 1.75% and Nasdaq surging 2.54%. The crypto market then followed with a rebound.

However, a question worth exploring is: why can a geopolitical event trigger Bitcoin to rise over 4%? The deeper logic lies in the market’s prior extreme sentiment suppression. As of June 11, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index had been below the "Extreme Fear" threshold for 8 consecutive trading days, with readings between 12 and 15. This absolute depth—being in the lowest 10% since the index’s inception—indicates that spot market participants are in a "silence where no one wants to speak." When market sentiment is compressed to such an extreme, any external variable capable of changing the narrative can trigger a directional shift.

The logical chain of the trigger can be summarized as: Geopolitical risk eases → Oil prices decline and inflation expectations marginally ease → Risk assets are re-priced → In a low-liquidity environment, highly crowded short contracts face liquidation → The rebound self-reinforces. This logic was validated in the previous trading day’s market.

Leverage Deleveraging or Chip Exchange: Dissecting the Mechanics of Liquidation-Driven Market Moves

Why does short liquidation during price rises create a "speeding up" effect? The answer lies in the domino mechanism of leveraged funds. When prices start rising from lows, they first hit the stop-loss levels set by shorts at low positions. These forced liquidation orders execute as buy orders, further pushing prices higher, which causes more short positions above to enter liquidation zones. This is a typical "short squeeze" process in crypto derivatives markets.

In this cycle, a significant risk exposure has long existed. As early as around June 7, Bitcoin positions above $62,000 to $64,000 had accumulated over $26 billion in short liquidation leverage, forming one of the most unbalanced long-short positions in months. This means that the price does not need to rise sharply; just breaking some gaps can trigger large-scale forced liquidations. This technical foundation explains how the rebound can amplify into market-wide volatility with relatively limited spot buying.

Meanwhile, a more structural force is also at play. According to CryptoQuant data, whale investors have been steadily buying since Bitcoin touched a low of around $59,000 on June 5. Retail investors, on the other hand, had been selling in ETF and spot markets before June 4. This creates a scenario where retail and short positions continue to price in "further decline," while whales and institutions accumulate at low prices. When the rebound occurs, it validates the latter’s positioning logic. Gate data also shows that miners did not become a source of selling pressure during this period; in fact, their holdings increased by about 637 BTC in the week of June 6, indicating accumulation rather than selling mined coins.

Technical Perspective: The Key Role of $63,000 as a Support-Resistance Transition

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin’s recent high of $63,933 precisely touches the previously identified medium-term strong resistance zone. On the 4-hour chart, the $63,800–$64,000 range corresponds to the upper Bollinger Band, serving as a pressure level. The earlier forecast of a "rebound pressure zone" between $61,000 and $63,500 has been fully validated. ETH also reached a resistance zone around $1,680–$1,690 before pulling back slightly, indicating similar resistance structures across multiple coins.

It’s important to distinguish the implications across different timeframes. On the daily chart, although the price has risen significantly, it remains well below the daily Bollinger middle band at $68,213 and all major moving averages, indicating that the overall bearish dominance has not been broken. This suggests that the current rebound is more likely a "oversold correction during a downtrend" rather than a trend reversal. The resistance at around $63,900 is reinforced by the fact that this level acts as a key obstacle across weekly, daily, and 4-hour cycles; a breakout in a single cycle is insufficient to generate multi-cycle resonance and upward momentum.

Macro Dynamics and Capital Divergence: Market Pricing Adjustment Ahead of the Fed Meeting

The reason the rebound cannot be explained solely by technical indicators is the presence of macro and capital structure divergences. On the macro front, the market is approaching the June 17 FOMC meeting. Recent data shows that U.S. May non-farm payrolls increased by 172k, well above expectations, while the May CPI rose 4.2% year-over-year, the highest since April 2023, and PPI increased 6.5%, the largest in nearly three years. These figures have significantly lowered expectations for rate cuts in 2026. According to a Reuters survey in early June, 72 out of 102 economists expect the federal funds rate to be between 3.50% and 3.75% by year-end, with the number of rate cuts reduced to 1–2 times. The implied probability of a rate cut in June has nearly fallen to zero.

On the capital side, signals are also complex. On one hand, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF net outflows have exceeded $4.3 billion over 13 consecutive trading days. On the other hand, BlackRock increased its Bitcoin holdings by $33 million on June 6, marking its first increase in 13 days; MicroStrategy (now Strategy) bought an additional 1,550 BTC during this correction, bringing its total holdings to about 845,256 BTC. This divergence—retail and some institutional investors retreating, while whales and select buyers accumulate—suggests that this rebound is more a structural transfer of funds rather than a trend-driven buy signal.

Miner Ecosystem Bottom Signals: Hash Rate Decline and Difficulty Adjustment Implications

Beyond market sentiment and price, Bitcoin’s mining ecosystem is providing another layer of structural signals. As of June 7, 2026, the total network hash rate dropped from about 1,030 EH/s to approximately 885 EH/s, a net outflow of about 145 EH/s—the largest since 2020 and the first "hash rate bear market" in Bitcoin history. Hashprice has fallen to around $28.26 per PH/s, down nearly 27% over 30 days, combined with on-chain transaction fee ratios below 1%, putting significant profit pressure on high-cost miners.

This signal’s significance in bottom analysis is that when many miners shut down or shift due to economic reasons, the market often approaches or reaches a long-term bottom zone. The hash rate decline automatically triggers a difficulty adjustment—expected around June 13—of approximately 10.3%, the 11th largest negative difficulty adjustment in history. This will marginally improve the cost structure for remaining miners. While not an absolute bottom indicator, historical data shows that such significant difficulty reductions tend to occur in the later stages of industry stress cycles, serving as an important reference for valuation levels.

Short-term Two-Path Scenario: Post-Rebound Market Trajectory

Combining technical, capital, and macro factors, Bitcoin faces two main potential paths after this rebound.

Path 1: "Consolidation and Bottoming" Scenario. In the short term, if prices face resistance at $63,800–$64,000 and then retreat, holding support around $60,800 could lead to a wide-range consolidation between $60,000 and $64,000. In this scenario, buybacks triggered by short liquidations will fade, and the market will revert to a wait-and-see mode centered on the June 17 FOMC outcome. If the dot plot signals that there is still room for two rate cuts in 2026, macro support could gradually lift the rebound’s midpoint.

Path 2: "Double Bottom" Scenario. If prices encounter resistance in the pressure zone and then decline with increased volume, breaking below $60,800 support could lead to testing key levels at $59,130 or even $58,400. The probability of this path depends on two variables: first, if the June dot plot reduces the expected rate cuts to one or none, macro sentiment will turn defensive; second, if ETH, SOL, and other coins’ funding rates converge from negative but prices do not rebound, indicating that the micro conditions for short squeeze are still lacking, and market recovery momentum remains weak.

Summary

The massive rally across the crypto space on June 12, 2026, was not merely a price rebound but a structural liquidation event fueled by geopolitical news, highly crowded short positions in derivatives markets, whale accumulation, and miner stockpiling. Bitcoin’s over 4% rise and the $272 million in total liquidations, heavily skewed toward shorts, confirm the market’s "extreme sentiment combined with extreme leverage" profile. Technically, the high of $63,933 and the identified strong resistance zone align closely, and whether the market can transition from "downward correction" to "trend reversal" depends on macro factors—particularly whether the Fed’s rate cut expectations can be substantively supported after the June FOMC. In this complex information environment, understanding the distribution of funds and leverage density among bulls and bears reveals deeper market dynamics more than chasing short-term price swings.

FAQ

Q: Which side mainly contributed to the $272 million liquidation in this rebound?

According to CoinGlass data, about $199 million of the recent 24-hour liquidations were shorts, accounting for over 73% of total liquidations. The largest single liquidation occurred in the Bitcoin futures market, amounting to $100k.

Q: Why can a geopolitical event trigger Bitcoin to surge over 4%?

The core reason is not the event itself but the market structure before the rebound—8 days of extreme fear, highly crowded short leverage, and deeply negative funding rates. This setup meant that a small buy order could trigger a systemic chain of short liquidations.

Q: Is this rebound a trend reversal or an oversold correction?

From a multi-cycle technical perspective, the price remains significantly below the daily Bollinger middle band at $68,213 and all major moving averages, with a bearish dominance still intact. The rebound is more likely a "oversold correction during a downtrend" rather than a trend reversal.

Q: How do ETF fund flows influence the future outlook?

ETF flows show a clear "structural divergence"—BlackRock’s products saw a $2.08M outflow, but Ark Invest’s ARKB recorded a $63 million inflow on the same day. This indicates internal fund reallocation rather than systemic withdrawal.

Q: How will the June FOMC meeting affect Bitcoin?

The dot plot at the June 17 meeting is a key variable. If it indicates still two rate cuts in 2026, risk assets could be supported; if it signals only one or none, market volatility may increase. Current market pricing suggests a 98.2% probability of holding rates steady at 3.50–3.75%.

Q: What does hash rate decline and difficulty adjustment imply?

Hash rate has dropped from about 1,030 EH/s to 885 EH/s, the largest sustained contraction in six years. The expected difficulty adjustment around June 13 (~10.3%) will improve the cost structure for remaining miners. Historically, such large adjustments occur in late-stage stress periods.

Q: Where are Bitcoin’s key support and resistance levels?

Short-term support is around $60,800; if broken, further tests at $59,130–$58,400 are likely. Resistance is at approximately $64,000, with a major technical resistance at $68,213 on the daily chart.