IPO Market to Explode in 2026: Goldman Sachs Raises Outlook to $225 Billion, Is Crypto Funding Facing Outflows?

2026 is becoming a special year for the global capital markets. After nearly three years of silence, the IPO market has experienced strong rebounds in both the first and second quarters. A recent report from Goldman Sachs indicates that in 2026, total U.S. IPO fundraising could reach between $160 billion and $225 billion, surpassing the internet boom of 2021 and potentially setting a new record for annual IPO fundraising in history.

What truly shifts market participants' focus from traditional capital markets to the crypto industry is another layer of narrative hidden within Goldman Sachs' report: as hundreds of billions of dollars in new stock supply flood the market, at the same time, the crypto market is experiencing its largest retracement since the 2025 peak, with ETF net outflows continuing. Are the capital competitions between these two asset classes quietly underway?

Based on Goldman Sachs' latest forecast data, the actual performance of the IPO market in the first half of 2026, and publicly available data such as Bitcoin ETF capital flows, this report systematically analyzes the structural features of this IPO wave and quantifies its potential impact on crypto market liquidity.

2026 IPO Market: From Recovery to Historic Breakthrough

In the first half of 2026, the global IPO market saw its strongest rebound in the past three years. According to market data, by early June, the U.S. market had completed 40 IPOs, raising approximately $28 billion, marking the best performance in the first five months since 2021. From a market-wide perspective, the number of IPOs announced in 2026 has reached 203, with 125 completed in Q1 and 78 listed by June 1 in Q2. This semiannual figure ranks third in the past decade, behind 548 IPOs in 2021 and 223 in 2022.

Meanwhile, the first-day performance of newly listed stocks also signals positive market sentiment. The average first-day gain for IPOs in 2026 so far is close to 20%, roughly in line with historical averages, indicating investor appetite for new stock supply remains healthy. More importantly, from a pricing quality perspective, this cycle shows more rational characteristics than previous ones. Analysis suggests that demand for new stocks is increasingly concentrated in themes related to AI, aerospace, and digital assets, rather than being broadly dispersed across targets lacking fundamental support, implying more targeted capital allocation.

Although the number of IPOs remains below pre-pandemic peaks, the fundraising volume has already experienced a qualitative leap. The $28 billion raised in the first five months exceeds previous optimistic market expectations, providing a realistic basis for Goldman Sachs to raise its full-year forecast. This data forms the factual basis for Goldman Sachs' subsequent significant upward revision of its annual outlook.

Goldman Sachs' Two Upgrades and Core Logic

Goldman Sachs' expectations for the U.S. IPO market have been substantively revised upward twice this year. According to publicly available information, Goldman initially forecasted total IPO fundraising of $160 billion for 2026, believing that driven by the concentration of tech and AI companies going public, the scale could be about four times that of 2025. Later, as actual issuance data in the first half of the year continued to exceed expectations, Goldman further raised its full-year forecast to $225 billion, positioning 2026 as the largest IPO fundraising year in history.

This upward revision is mainly based on three core logics:

First, the market environment has significantly improved. Goldman Sachs notes that the improved environment for new stock issuance, sustained strong demand for corporate stocks, and structural investor preferences for AI-related assets collectively form the foundation for a fully open IPO window.

Second, the window for large private companies to go public has arrived. Goldman Sachs predicts that IPOs in 2026 will be primarily driven by large private firms, with fundraising between $80 billion and $200 billion. Besides the already successful SpaceX, private companies valued at over $13k such as OpenAI, Anthropic, and Databricks are viewed as potential candidates for IPOs within the year.

Third, market absorption capacity remains sufficient. Goldman Sachs estimates that the total equity supply, including IPOs, follow-on offerings, convertible bond issuances, and SPACs, will be about $675 billion in 2026, while corporate stock buybacks are expected to reach approximately $1.3 trillion—far exceeding the total equity issuance. This supply-demand relationship indicates that new stock supply does not necessarily exert market pressure. Additionally, Goldman Sachs points out that the projected IPO fundraising of about 1% of the U.S. stock market’s total market cap is below the long-term average of 1.5% since 1995.

Led by SpaceX: A Landmark Completed Case

Goldman Sachs' macro narrative was most notably validated in June 2026. On June 12, SpaceX completed its IPO at $135 per share, issuing 555.56 million shares, with a valuation of $1.77 trillion—surpassing Saudi Aramco’s $256 billion in 2019 to become the largest IPO ever by fundraising scale. The stock will be listed on Nasdaq, and its post-listing market cap ranks seventh among U.S. listed companies.

SpaceX is not the only large IPO case. Several companies in AI infrastructure and biopharmaceuticals also completed sizable IPOs this quarter. Since the start of 2026, the average first-day gain of listed companies has remained steady, and while subsequent trading performance has been mixed, the market reception in the first week for leading companies has been generally better than expected.

From an industry distribution perspective, a key feature of this IPO cycle is the high concentration in AI and technology themes. Goldman Sachs specifically highlights that AI firms like OpenAI and Anthropic will be among the most watched potential targets in the 2026 IPO market, and their potential fundraising scale will be a critical variable for whether the market can reach the total of $225 billion in the second half of the year.

Analysis of Market Risks and Controllability

Although the $225 billion IPO fundraising forecast sets a new record, the market’s capacity to absorb such volume is not unlimited. Several structural factors warrant attention.

Corporate buybacks as a buffer. As noted earlier, Goldman Sachs estimates that the total share repurchase volume in 2026 will be about $1.3 trillion, with announced buyback plans reaching $860 billion—an all-time high. This indicates that proactive buybacks from listed companies will provide significant liquidity buffers.

Impact of bond yields on valuations. Recently, the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield has risen above 5.2%, reaching levels not seen since the global financial crisis, with the 10-year yield also rising sharply. Higher discount rates will affect valuation models for high-growth stocks, and IPOs in tech and AI sectors may face increased valuation uncertainty during initial pricing.

Gradual risks from lock-up expirations. Some analyses suggest that the proportion of tradable shares at IPOs is usually below 10%, but after lock-up periods expire, the proportion of tradable shares could rise to about 28% within six months and approximately 46% within a year. This means companies listed in 2026 will not immediately release all tradable shares, but by 2027, there could be more significant supply pressure.

Cross-Analysis of IPO Boom and Crypto Market Liquidity

For crypto market participants, Goldman Sachs’ IPO forecast introduces an indirect variable worth noting—funding competition.

In early June, Bitcoin spot ETF net outflows have continued for 13 consecutive trading days, with a total outflow of about $5.75 billion by early June. During the first week of June, Bitcoin’s price even dipped below $60,000, hitting a new low for 2026. Some market views attribute these outflows to institutional investors redeeming crypto assets in advance to prepare for participation in large IPOs like SpaceX. However, others suggest different interpretations. Fabian Dori, CIO of Sygnum, publicly stated that Bitcoin ETF outflows are not directly related to IPOs like SpaceX. Additional analysis indicates that the outflows may be more related to arbitrage unwinding rather than large-scale position transfers.

Both viewpoints have logical bases. The argument supporting capital competition is that IPO underwriters often require large investors to commit to certain subscription sizes to secure allocations. If institutional investors hold both crypto and traditional assets, they might prioritize adjusting liquidity structures, favoring redemptions from crypto holdings. Conversely, the argument against direct competition is that Bitcoin ETFs are a separate asset class from traditional equities; the scale of institutional rebalancing does not necessarily match the $5.75 billion ETF outflows, and the timing overlap with IPOs does not automatically imply causality.

From a broader macro perspective, a more relevant parameter is the ratio of the overall crypto market size to IPO capital demand. As of June 12, the total market cap of cryptocurrencies is about $2.25 trillion, with Bitcoin’s market cap around $1.24 trillion. Goldman Sachs’ forecasted $225 billion in IPO fundraising is roughly 10% of the current crypto market cap. While this is a significant proportion in absolute terms, it only pertains to primary market fundraising, not secondary trading volumes, so its direct impact on the crypto market remains to be further analyzed based on capital flow directions.

Looking at recent crypto price performance, Bitcoin has recovered to about $63,500 as of June 12, with a 24-hour increase of around 2%, and Ethereum is around $1,670. This suggests that after the recent correction, the crypto market has experienced some short-term recovery, and there is no evidence of sustained panic selling.

Conclusion

Goldman Sachs’ forecast of $225 billion in IPO fundraising in 2026 is based on the structural improvements observed in the first half of the year. SpaceX’s $75 billion IPO set a new global record and provides the most direct validation of this trend. From a supply-demand perspective, data such as buyback scales and IPOs as a percentage of total market cap indicate market capacity, but rising bond yields and lock-up expirations are medium-term variables to watch.

For the crypto market, the IPO boom’s funding competition effect has moved from theoretical to observable. The ongoing net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs since mid-May, coinciding with the SpaceX IPO window, make capital flow a variable to monitor continuously. However, current data also suggest that crypto market adjustments may involve other structural factors, including arbitrage unwinding and phase shifts in crypto narratives. Bitcoin’s rebound to around $63,500 on June 12 indicates that the market has not fallen into a unidirectional capital outflow channel.

The linkage between crypto assets and traditional IPO market capital flows may further manifest in the second half of 2026. The pace of potential large IPOs like OpenAI and Anthropic, the recovery of Bitcoin ETF net inflows, and the direction of Federal Reserve interest rate policies will be three core indicators for assessing capital flow directions between these asset classes.