Bloomberg Analyst: Bitcoin May Be Shifting from the "Leading Risk Asset" to a "Leading Down Signal"

ME News message: On June 11 (UTC+8), Bloomberg Chief Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone wrote that Bitcoin had clearly led risk assets in prior rally cycles, but in the current stage, this leading relationship may be extending in reverse. In his latest remarks, he said that in the past Bitcoin “drove risk assets higher,” and now “may also drive them lower,” and he believes that based on a comparison chart of Bitcoin against the S&P 500 on the same scale (amplified 10 times), the overall beta assets may enter a down year in 2026. He emphasized that since 2009, the S&P 500’s annual total return has only fallen in 2018 and 2022, and both of these years coincided with Bitcoin’s down cycle, while also aligning with the U.S. midterm election cycle.

He believes the difference in the current market is that structural pressures are stacking up: inflation has once again become a political core issue, while stock market volatility has remained low for a long time, but risk indicators for commodities such as gold and crude oil have continued to rise. This combination of “low-volatility stocks + high-risk commodities” is relatively rare in history. In addition, McGlone also said that since 2026, both Bitcoin and gold have shown signs of “mean reversion,” which may mean that the risk asset cycle is moving into a repricing phase. He pointed out that compared with the 2025 highs (around $126,000), Bitcoin and gold have retraced by about 50%, while the U.S. Treasury total return index may be forming a partial bottom from a low area seen since 1983.

At present, the market still lacks key confirmation signals—namely, whether the S&P 500 to GDP ratio, from its near-high since 1928, has started to fall. If this indicator begins to turn, it could indicate that a broader risk asset cycle is entering a structural adjustment. (Source: ChainCatcher)