CryptoQuant: Bitcoin may be close to a structural bottom, but the market's potential selling pressure has not yet been exhausted

BlockBeats News, June 11 — CryptoQuant released the latest report on social media indicating that Bitcoin has fallen to a new bear market low of $59,000, currently only 9% above its realized price of $53,600. Historically, this valuation level is often associated with bear market bottoms. In past bear markets, prices typically bottom near or slightly below the realized price, suggesting that from a purely valuation perspective, Bitcoin may be approaching a structural bottom.

However, demand conditions remain extremely unfavorable. Last week, Bitcoin’s total demand (speculative futures and explicit spot) plummeted to -652,000 BTC, the largest decline since January 2022. Long-term spot demand (1-year explicit demand growth) has also turned negative, falling below the trend line to its most severe level since February 2024.

ETF purchase volume is shrinking at the fastest rate since its launch in January 2024, with 30-day ETF demand growth in an unprecedented negative zone. This indicates that U.S. institutional demand, the main structural driver of the current cycle, is not only stagnating but has also reversed into net selling at a rare and abnormal speed in history.

Bitcoin holders’ realized losses have not yet reached capitulation levels. Over the past 30 days, sellers realized a loss of 187,000 BTC, compared to 400,000 BTC when Bitcoin first touched $60,000 during this cycle’s bear market in February 2026; during the cycle bottom after the FTX collapse in November 2022, this number reached 1.2 million BTC. The absence of a capitulation sell-off peak suggests that there are still willing sellers in the market.

From a price level perspective, the bottom may already be near, but a shift to a bull market requires a constructive demand recovery, which is not yet evident in the data. Before total demand stabilizes, ETF capital flows recover, and realized losses reach capitulation levels, the current price level should be interpreted as a potential valuation bottom rather than a confirmed cycle bottom.