You're staying up late watching the game, while I'm watching the biggest IPO in human history — SpaceX going public tomorrow, will it rise or fall?

June 12, 2026, two major events happen on the same day worldwide.
One on the field: the US, Canada, and Mexico are fiercely competing in the World Cup, 104 matches, 48 teams, 6 billion viewers.
The other at Nasdaq: SpaceX listing, ticker SPCX, raising $75 billion, valuation of $1.8 trillion — the largest IPO in human history, no doubt about it.
While everyone is talking about Messi and Mbappé, what might truly impact your wallet is the rocket Elon Musk holds in his hand.
How exaggerated is this IPO?
Offering price: $135/share (fixed price, no inquiry range, very rare) Offering size: 555.6 million shares, raising $75 billion
Valuation: $1.75 to $1.8 trillion (surpassing Meta, approaching Amazon)
Subscription multiple: over 4 times, total subscriptions exceeding $250 billion
Retail allocation: 30% (unprecedented, normal IPO retail share is about 5%)
Underwriters: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup, J.P. Morgan The last time retail was so crazy about an IPO was Facebook in 2012.
Reasons for rise: stars and the sea are real The logic supporting SPCX’s big first-day jump is actually very solid.
First, Starlink is a real cash cow. In 2025, Starlink revenue is $11.4 to $11.8 billion, accounting for about 76% to 80% of SpaceX’s total revenue, with over ten million users, EBITDA margin as high as 63%. This is not a pie-in-the-sky, it’s real money being earned.
Second, Starship’s cost advantage is a game-changer. The global average launch cost per kilogram to low Earth orbit is $18.5k; Falcon 9 has reduced it to $2,700 (an 85% drop), Heavy Falcon to $1,400 (a 92% drop), Starship aims for over 99% reduction.
Third, the imagination space for xAI. Goldman Sachs model: xAI revenue skyrockets from $3.2 billion in 2025 to $322 billion in 2030, a hundredfold in five years. Many believe in it — the $250 billion subscription is proof.
Fourth, Musk’s halo effect. A Columbia University professor said: "Retail investors and quite a few institutional investors are hopelessly obsessed with Musk."
Fifth, supply and demand. Over 4x oversubscription, institutional orders were halted early. The first day’s free float is severely compressed, and when buying interest concentrates, the stock price can easily be pushed higher.
Reasons for decline: bubbles are real too The bearish voices are also loud, each hitting the mark.
First, valuation is ridiculously high. Barron’s: P/S ratio of 40, EBITDA multiple of 175. Morningstar analyst estimates $780 billion valuation, valuation master Damodaran calculates $99 per share — 27% below the offering price.
Second, two of the three business segments are burning cash. Rocket launches will lose $657 million in 2025; xAI will lose $6.4 billion in 2025 and another $2.5 billion in Q1 2026. All relying on Starlink profits to fill the gaps.
Third, the historical fate of huge IPOs. Major IPOs over $18k in valuation have an average first-week return of 26.5%, but after a year, the average return drops to only 3.5%.
Fourth, Musk’s risks. Managing Tesla, SpaceX, xAI, and X simultaneously, any problem in one can trigger a chain reaction.
Will it rise or fall on the first day? Likely to rise, but the magnitude is uncertain.
Over 4x oversubscription + 30% retail quota + Musk fan effect + limited first-day float = short-term supply shortage. Referencing Tesla’s 41% first-day gain in 2010, SPCX’s first-day rise probability is much higher than a fall.
But the risk of peaking at open is significant. Fixed price at $135 means no institutional bidding, and the true price discovery is all on the first day.
If the opening price is pushed to $180 or even $200 by sentiment, some may start selling that day. The real test will be in three months. xAI lost $2.5 billion in Q1; if subsequent financial reports can’t prove the “hundredfold in five years” trajectory, the current premium will be eroded over time.
What does the World Cup have to do with it? A lot. The World Cup is when human attention is most concentrated, reaching 6 billion people worldwide. This traffic black hole often masks major capital market events.
During the 2010 South Africa World Cup, Tesla quietly IPO’d, most people didn’t notice. Those who bought then, later achieved financial freedom. In 2026, the script is repeating. Everyone is watching the game, few are watching Nasdaq.
Are you watching the game, or the market? #SpaceX $SPCX