Does Trump suddenly love inflation? Gold collapsed, but Bitcoin surprisingly didn't follow suit!🤯

Brothers, today's show is just too exciting!📺

While countless people are shouting about war and buying gold, gold directly broke below $4,100, hitting a 7-month low.

On the other side, the US military bombed Iran, with Trump warning "if no deal is signed, we'll blow it to bits," and exchanging harsh words with Iran. Subsequently, Iran ordered the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, explicitly stating that any ships attempting to break through will be attacked. Usually, in such times, safe-haven assets should soar, but gold prices are instead plunging to the floor.

Guess what?

The US CPI inflation data for May hit 4.2%, a three-year high! The escalation of US-Iran conflicts repeatedly pushed oil prices higher, which in turn fueled inflation even more. Although the Federal Reserve hinted at a wait-and-see approach, market expectations for rate hikes by the end of the year have rapidly climbed! Gold can't generate yields on its own, and rising real interest rates are directly suppressing it.

Looking at Bitcoin$BTC ‌, it has been oscillating between about 61k and 63k, with very restrained declines and even some rebounds! Many candlestick charts show that the current market panic index has reached extreme panic levels, and after a short-term dip, some bottom-fishing funds are starting to probe.

Bitcoin's current price is around 62.8k USD, still a significant distance from its all-time high, but a short-term minor rebound to repair the structure has indeed formed. However, on the 4-hour and daily charts, it remains in a low-volatility oscillation zone after the decline, with resistance around 65k USD not light, and the overall trend has not fully reversed.

Ethereum$ETH ‌ appears weaker, finding initial support around 1,600 USD, but signs of institutional support are not very obvious yet. Today, the spot Bitcoin ETF in the US saw a net outflow of 1,320 BTC, and the Ethereum ETF also saw an outflow of 2,370 ETH. Even institutional funds are retreating, indicating that short-term demand has indeed cooled.

But a turning point is also brewing. Trump, who had been "firing at Powell repeatedly," suddenly shifted—new Federal Reserve Chair Waller will hold his first rate decision meeting next Saturday, June 17, and the White House has rarely stated that they will not interfere with his decisions. A few days ago, Trump even personally said, "I love inflation; once the war is over, inflation will drop like a rock." For the crypto world, the uncertainty of high interest rates and macro tensions will still suppress the market in the short term, but once policy directions become clearer, market pressure will quickly ease.

Let's look at some more interesting assets:

❗ $BTC —— The average market cost basis is about $48.3k, which is different from the overall market holdings cost. In the short term, under macro pressure, it is more likely to fluctuate rather than break straight down.

❗ $ETH —— The on-chain structural cost baseline is about $700. The current price around 1,650 USD has plenty of room, but the overall trend still depends on Bitcoin's direction.

❗ $BEAT ‌ —— The hottest hotspot recently, no doubt. Circulating supply accounts for only about 29% of the total issuance. A few days ago, another $25 million worth of tokens were unlocked, but the market isn't fearful—instead, the price has risen from $3.8 before unlocking to $5.3. A 312% increase in 7 days, with daily trading volume nearing $61k—if whales really wanted to sell, they would have done so long ago. But RSI is seriously overbought at 80+ or even 90+, and after seven consecutive bullish days, a shakeout could happen at any time. Keep a close eye; no slack in monitoring.

❗ $MU —— The short-term chart looks near the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, RSI ranges from 58 to 77, signals vary across different timeframes, and overall market sentiment is quite strained. Neither bulls nor bears have decisively won yet.

❗ $ETH/BTC exchange rate —— Ethereum ETF continues to outflow, indicating that institutions are currently conservative about ETH allocation. Coupled with declining retail activity on-chain, ETH's independent trend still depends on further developments.

The macro pressure this round is visibly intense: Fed rate hike expectations are rising, funds are flowing out of risk assets, and for cryptocurrencies to break free from the short-term dilemma, two key points matter: first, whether the US-Iran situation will truly ease; second, whether Waller will give a more "dovish" clear signal than market expectations after next week's meeting.

The most painful part of trading is always not knowing the direction, rather than how bad the market itself is. At this stage, it's better to watch more and act less, stay away from high leverage, and patiently wait for the risks to be fully released—this is much more effective than blindly rushing in and repeatedly stopping out.

What token are you most concerned about in this round? Feel free to share in the comments!🧡

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