Bitcoin has fallen into a deep valuation zone of a bear market, with the fear index remaining at only 9. The most difficult period before the June FOMC may be approaching.

Bitcoin is falling near the 200-week moving average, landing in the bottom 10% of its historical valuation range, and the Fear & Greed Index is down to just 9. Under multiple pressures—an uptick in inflation, global rate hikes, and continued outflows from ETFs—Bitcoin may not have finished the toughest stretch yet before the June 16–17 FOMC meeting.
(Background: Bitcoin drops below the $60,000 mark! Over $1.5 billion liquidated across the market in 24 hours—nonfarm data devastates global markets)
(Background added: Glassnode: Bitcoin is moving further into a capitulation phase, and long-term demand has not yet shown up.)

Table of Contents

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• Inflation rebounds: US CPI hits the highest level in more than three years
• Multiple headwinds: rate hikes, stock market declines, and ETF outflows
• The final battle before the FOMC: June 16–17 sets the direction

Bitcoin is in one of the cheapest valuation ranges in four years. Based on Checkonchain data, BTC has fallen close to the 200-week moving average—a trend line viewed by long-term holders as a four-year cycle indicator. The model places Bitcoin at the bottom 10% of its historical valuation range, a zone that typically only appears in the late stages of past bear markets.

This week, Bitcoin briefly broke below the $60,000 mark for the first time since 2024. On Thursday, BTC traded at $62,623, up 1.9% on the day, but still down on the week. The Fear & Greed Index has fallen to 9, putting it in the “Extreme Fear” zone, a sharp drop from last week’s 11 and last month’s 48.

Inflation rebounds: US CPI hits the highest level in more than three years

The US May Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5% month over month, and the year-over-year rate reached 4.2%, the fastest pace since early 2023. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Wednesday shows that rising energy costs driven by the Iran conflict are the main reason.

Excluding food and energy, core CPI rose 0.2% month over month, slightly below economists’ expectations— the only easing signal in this inflation report. But the overall inflation rebound means that room for rate cuts is being squeezed, further reducing the relative appeal of non-yielding assets like Bitcoin.

Multiple headwinds: rate hikes, stock market declines, and ETF outflows

The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates for the first time on Thursday. This would be the first rate increase since September 2023, and bond traders have already priced in global rate hikes. The MSCI Global Equity Index has slipped to its lowest level since May 5. Asia-Pacific stocks fell 0.8%, while Brent crude rose 1.8% to about $95 per barrel.

For Bitcoin ETFs, BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC continue to draw in most new funds, while smaller funds are increasingly sidelined. Although Bitcoin is down about 29% year to date, IBIT and FBTC still play the role of stabilizers, continuing to attract capital when competitors face redemption waves.

Yves Renno, Trading Director of global crypto payments platform Wirex, said: “The hope for clearer US regulation has faded again. On Polymarket, the probability of the 2026 ‘Clear Act’ passing has dropped from 62% to 48%.”

Final battle before the FOMC: June 16–17 sets the direction

Renno points out that all eyes are now on the FOMC meeting on June 16–17. The tone of new Federal Reserve Chair Warsh will determine whether Bitcoin rebounds back into the $68,000–$72,000 range, or breaks decisively below $60,000.

Checkonchain reminds us that the bottom is a process, not a single point in time: first capitulation, followed by months of sideways consolidation that slowly wears down the remaining holders. The current fear index of 9 indicates that price-sensitive sellers have already stepped in, but the test of patience during the sideways phase is only just beginning.

Thursday’s rebound was broad but shallow: Ethereum rose 1.4% to $1,651, SOL rose 0.9% to $65, and BNB rose 1.3% to $595. XRP lagged, down 0.3% to $1.12. Over the past seven days, the largest declines among major tokens were Ethereum (-6.5%) and XRP (-7.5%). Thursday’s gains only repaired part of the weekly losses and have not yet reversed the trend.