Bitunix Analyst: Energy inflation pushes CPI to a three-year high, but cooling core data causes the market to pause bets on interest rate hikes

BlockBeats News, June 11 — The U.S. May CPI year-over-year increase rose to 4.2%, hitting a nearly three-year high, with energy prices up 23.5% annually, and gasoline prices soaring by 40.5%, contributing over 60% of the monthly inflation increase. This data again confirms that the situation in the Middle East and supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz have become the main sources of current global inflation pressure, with energy prices gradually impacting economic activity through transportation and corporate costs.

However, the market is more focused on another set of data. Core CPI excluding food and energy increased by only 0.2% month-over-month, below market expectations, indicating that energy shocks have not yet fully spread to services and consumption. Housing, medical, and entertainment prices remain modestly rising, but auto insurance, new cars, and household goods prices have fallen back, reflecting that domestic demand has not experienced runaway inflation.

This has also led the market to reevaluate policy paths. Although overall CPI continues to rise, the cooling of core inflation suggests that the Federal Reserve lacks an immediate need to raise interest rates in the short term. Currently, the market is more focused on whether next week’s meeting will shift toward a neutral or slightly hawkish stance, rather than directly implementing rate hikes.

For financial markets, this report signals an important message: the current risk has shifted from demand overheating to supply shocks. If energy prices remain high due to geopolitical influences, the world will face pressure of "high inflation but slowing economic momentum"; conversely, if energy supply normalizes, core inflation still has the chance to return to a downward trajectory.

For the crypto market, Bitcoin’s short-term key concern is no longer just whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates, but whether global liquidity can continue to expand. If energy inflation further pushes up real funding costs, valuation of risk assets will be suppressed; but if core inflation remains controlled, market concerns about liquidity may ease.