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The S&P 500 is reflecting the global M2 money supply.
The chart shows an incredible correlation between Global M2 and the S&P 500 with a lag of approximately 3 months.
Over the past 15 years, almost every major growth cycle in US stocks has been driven by the expansion of global liquidity:
• 2009–2021: M2 surged -> S&P entered its longest bull market in history.
• 2022: M2 contracted for the first time in decades -> bear market.
• 2023–2026: M2 recovered and continuously reached new highs -> S&P 500 also returned to its all-time high.
The Fed may still keep interest rates high. Bonds may signal tightening. But if global liquidity continues to expand, risky assets still have fuel to rise in price.
This is also why Bitcoin, tech stocks, and high-beta assets often follow the trajectory of the M2 rather than statements from the Fed.
Liquidity is ultimately the deciding factor in any market trend.
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