Guess what the most frustrating point about ETH is right now?

The price clearly dropped to around $1,628 (a slight 0.18% decline in 24 hours), seeming to stabilize— but looking at the chart, it's all "bearish" signals.

💥 Price action: the reality is weaker than it appears

On the surface, it's oscillating at a low level, but in reality, it's being suppressed by the moving average system.

On the daily chart, EMA15/30/60 are all in a bearish alignment, with the price seemingly pressed down by three mountains—$1,793, $1,850, $2,242—each a tough nut to crack. The four-hour chart is more direct: although MACD shows a small golden cross, the two lines are still below the zero line. This kind of rebound—frankly—is a "dead cat bounce."

🔍 On-chain indicators: good news hidden in the data

The derivatives market is "clearing mines."

Last week's plunge from $2,000 to $1,550 wasn't retail investors smashing spot holdings, but long leverage chain liquidations—open interest once soared to a record high, then funding rates turned negative, and leverage was finally cleaned up.

Historical experience shows that this kind of "double kill" often signals a local bottom.

🌍 Macro and institutional: some are quietly accumulating

Geopolitical tensions are still causing disruptions (US military strikes Iran, ceasefire remains uncertain), but two things are worth noting:

· Fidelity bought $28.6 million worth of ETH last week, setting a recent weekly accumulation record;
· On Monday, ETF net inflows reached $82.3 million, and the Coinbase premium index near $1,500 also rebounded.

Smart money is starting to move at this level.

🎯 Where is the bottom? — $1,503–$1,540

This is a convergence zone of multiple technical indicators—the 100% Fibonacci retracement level, previous support band. As long as this holds, bulls still have a chance to turn things around; once volume increases and it breaks below, the next support is at $1,400 or even lower.

📊 Specific strategy (high-leverage players, please reduce your position)

· Short (trend-following): $1,645–$1,660 area — stop-loss at $1,700 — target $1,550–$1,500
· Long (speculative rebound): $1,520–$1,540 area — stop-loss at $1,480 — target $1,620–$1,660

Control your position size at 2-3%, don’t hold oversized positions.

Current ETH is like walking a tightrope—below is the accumulation bottom for institutions, above is the technical ceiling.

Do you think this wave will first clear out bullish leverage downward, then rebound? Or will it just build a bottom here?

👉 Leave your opinion in the comments: bearish/bullish + reasons, let’s discuss!#Gate直通IPO认购SpaceX