$65 SOL, are you going to cut losses?

WSOP official sponsorship, RWA hits a new high, Morgan Stanley allows clients to borrow SOL to trade ETPs—each piece of good news is solid, yet the price has fallen from 82 to 65, stagnating and pretending to be dead. Whales are selling, Kalshi predicts a bottom at 57, but on-chain TVL hits a record high, up 13% in 7 days. Is this the last shakeout before the bull market, or the long bear market after all good news has been exhausted?

First look at the surface: continuous good news, but the price doesn’t rise.

Past 7 days +13.5%, 30 days +31.9%, but since early June, a correction of over 21%. From 82 crashing down to 62, now struggling around 65. The candlestick chart shows: after breaking the downtrend line, an SFP (Swing Failure Pattern) signals a potential bottom, with repeated friction in the 62-65 range, but the 67.6 hurdle just won’t break—this is a “bear market rebound,” not a reversal.

First thing: all the news is big, but the market feels dead.

Solana officially becomes WSOP’s sponsor, players can buy tickets with zero fee SOL. RWA net inflow of $716 million, 97% of tokenized stocks on Solana. Morgan Stanley allows wealth clients to borrow SOL for spot ETPs.

Sounds like it’s about to take off? But look at the candlestick—price fell from 82 to 65, a 21% drop.

Same news, if it were 2024, could rally 50%, but now the market simply ignores it. Why?

Because whales are selling. Multiple transactions over a hundred million dollars transferred to Coinbase, Kalshi’s market is already pricing a bottom at 57 this month.

In plain language: the good news is real, but smart money is calling the shots. Retail investors are still dreaming, big players are already running.

Second thing: fundamentals are ridiculously strong, but macro is killing the market.

DeFi TVL ranges from $80M to $13.5 billion, SOL’s TVL hits a record high (62k SOL). Stablecoins total $16.4 billion, daily active addresses over 2 million, staking rate near 70%—very high lock-up rate, long-term holders are not moving.

Solana’s ecosystem, with RWA + payments + memecoin as the three pillars, remains one of the most active developer chains.

Then why isn’t the price rising?

Because Bitcoin is hovering around 62k, the Fed’s interest rate at 3.5%-3.75% is holding it down, rate cut expectations keep getting pushed back. SOL’s correlation with BTC exceeds 0.85, if the market doesn’t warm up, the chance of SOL moving independently is almost zero.

SOL now is like a beast chained—macro (the chain) isn’t loosened, no matter how strong, it can’t break out.

Third thing: a must-watch technical signal has appeared.

On the daily chart, after breaking the long-term downtrend line, it’s now oscillating between 62.95 and 65. A Swing Failure Pattern (SFP) + Breaker Block has formed, hinting at a mid-term reversal.

But note—only if the 4-hour closes above the red trendline does it truly turn bullish.

Key levels:

Support: 62.95 → 60 → 57 (Kalshi’s extreme pricing)

Resistance: 67.6 (failed multiple times recently) → 75 → 78

Currently RSI is neutral, no golden cross on MA, overall still bearish. Before breaking 67.6, all rebounds are just traps.

Long and short battle, you decide.

One side:

WSOP + RWA + stablecoins, real-world deployment

TVL hits record high, staking rate 70%

7 days +13.5%, already bouncing back

SFP signals at 62-65

Other side:

Whales keep selling, over a hundred million dollars transferred to exchanges

Kalshi’s bottom at 57, market sentiment pessimistic

Not breaking 67.6, technicals still bearish structure

High macro rates + unstable market, BTC could break 60k at any time

Key level 65, just 2.6 dollars away from the critical 67.6.

Resistance above: 67.6 → 75 → 78

Support below: 62.95 → 60 → 57

Trading strategy (no nonsense):

Super short-term traders:

Buy small positions at 62.95-63, stop-loss at 61, target 67.6. Above 67.6, add light longs, stop-loss at 65.5, target 75. Leverage no more than 3x, position no more than 5%. Don’t be greedy, this isn’t a position for heavy bags.

Swing traders:

Wait for a confirmed break above 67.6 (close + volume), then go all-in, target 78-85, stop-loss at 63. Buying on dips at 63-64 is okay, but don’t go all in.

Long-term believers:

Below 65 is the dollar-cost averaging zone. Buy blindly, hold for a year, target 300+. Take profit: sell 30% at 150, 30% at 250, hold the rest. But only if you can stomach short-term dips down to 57.

SOL now is like ETH in 2023—

Everyone said “ecosystem strong but price weak,” then it rose from 20 to 200, a 10x.

It’s not that SOL isn’t good, it’s that you keep doubting at lows and believing at peaks.

When 67.6 breaks, you’ll realize:

It’s not that Solana has no value, it’s that you’ve been #Gate直通IPO认购SpaceX scared off by macro fears.