When the world's cashiest companies begin selling shares to raise capital, investors should pay attention.

- Google just announced plans to issue $8.4 billion worth of shares, its first fundraising round in nearly 20 years.
Looking back at the history of the US market from 1929 to the present, periods when large corporations begin issuing additional shares to finance investment cycles (capex super-cycles) often occur very close to the market peak.
• 1929: Electrification cycle → S&P 500 subsequently plummeted.
• 1972: Nifty Fifty capex boom → market enters bear market.
• 2000: Telecom & Fiber capex boom → Dot-com crash.
• 2008: Energy super-cycle → Global financial crisis.
It's noteworthy that Alphabet currently holds over $100 billion in cash.
If even a company with a strong balance sheet like Google chooses to issue shares instead of using its massive cash reserves, it suggests that the capital needs for the AI ​​race may be far greater than what the market is currently pricing in.
When businesses begin selling shares, they often understand their enterprise value better than anyone else.
- This doesn't necessarily mean the market will collapse immediately.
But it's often a signal that we're entering the final stages of a euphoric cycle, where growth expectations begin to be financed by shareholder dilution rather than internal cash flow.