irst $BTC retracement level hit.

1. Local range low (blue)

Not trying to catch a knife here. Staying patient and seeing if it forms a setup and gives us a trigger.

By looking at the ranges, though, the probability of another move down has gone up.

Since the invalidation with a close below 74k, we got acceptance back into the local blue range. After that deviation back into the range, price quickly got nuked into the range low around 61k.

"When price deviates back into a range, it often moves quickly towards the opposite side of the range."

We've deviated back into more ranges besides the local 61-75k range (blue):

→ back into the red range on the left
→ back into the macro range

2. Ideal level: macro mid-range

There's one level with major confluence: the macro mid-range.

→ first macro key level after the macro range high deviation
→ also the range low of the red range on the left

Ideally, even after some sort of bounce first, we dip into the macro mid-range and look for a mini-cycle bottom there.

I'm still viewing this as a mini-cycle correction within a bigger macro cycle.

If we dip into that level and form a mini-cycle base (maybe slightly below, in the blue support above the 0.25), it would be an amazing setup with a clear trigger once we break out of that base.

It would also line up nicely with the 4-year cycle, summer seasonality, and give us time to enjoy eurosummer lol.

Bitcoin triggers remain the same:

Low confidence
1 → Form a base and trigger here at the lows of the local blue range. Will need a tight invalidation and a strong setup.

High confidence
2 → Dip into the macro mid-range and form a base there.
3 → Reclaim macro range high (above 74k roughly)