CryptoZeno

$BTC LONG TERM HOLDERS ARE SENDING A CYCLE WARNING
The historical Long Term BTC Holders 1 Year+ structure is approaching a critical transition zone. The lower oscillator has rebounded sharply from the deep accumulation and oversold region seen during previous cycle bottoms, but the current reading around 0.06 is still well below the historical 0.12+ overbought zone that has repeatedly appeared near major distribution phases.
What makes this chart interesting is the timing rather than the absolute level. Across previous Bitcoin cycles, long term holder behavior tends to move through a recogniza

Bitcoin is back around $77.8K after bouncing from the $76K area.
But I’m still focused on one level:
$79,500.
That’s the resistance Bitcoin has failed to properly reclaim several times since the move above $80K.
If BTC can finally break $79.5K and hold it on the 4H, I think $80K becomes much easier to take out, with $81K–$82K next.
If we get another rejection, I’d be watching $76K.
Lose that and the chart starts looking a lot less comfortable in the short term.
The bigger structure is still intact while Bitcoin remains above the $70.5K pivot.
So for me, this is pretty straightforward.
$79.5K i

ETH/BTC closed the monthly above the MA 20.
The last clean reclaim of this average was July 2020, when ETH/BTC ran from 0.0315 to 0.088 and ETH went from $225 to $4,372.
August 2025 also tagged this line but It failed to hold and Price dumped back toward the lows, thats why we need it to hold above MA 20.
Now price is back on the same average. MACD is turning up from the circled low, the same zone that preceded the 2020 breakout.
The chart maps two steps if this hold works.
Target 1: 0.050
Stretch target: the old high near 0.088
ISM came in at 54.6 vs 55.2 expected which means Growth is still

$BTC Will Continue To Drop
Flood gates are open as Spot Volume plumets, alongside Open Interest.
This tells us MM's are selling and that interest in buying is low.
Expecting another leg down again, soon.

$BTC Price just broke below the neckline of this Head & Shoulders pattern.
The technical target sits just below $73K, but imo, I think it’s more likely that price reverses earlier.
Let’s see how this plays out.

Bitcoin has been chopping around for almost two weeks after that move from $63K.
For me, $79.5K is still the level that matters most.
We’ve tested it multiple times and haven’t been able to hold above it.
If we finally reclaim it, I think $80K+ comes pretty quickly, with $81K–$82K back in play.
But if we lose $77K, I wouldn’t be surprised to see $75K–$76K first.
I’m not worried about the bigger trend unless $70.5K goes.
Until then, I’m just playing the levels.
Bitcoin has been chopping around for almost two weeks after that move from $63K.
For me, $79.5K is still the level that matters most.
W

Doesn’t look like a coincidence to me... $BTC
147, 147.

This would be a pretty entertaining scenario.
If $BTC pushes into the 82K–84K region, I’d start looking for hedges against my swing longs + spot exposure.
Until then, I’m happy to let the trend do its thing.

$BTC Over the past 6 months, 5/6 monthly opens were bullish.
Only once did price dump after the monthly open.
Considering this pattern, we could see some more upside tomorrow.

Bear Market progress, according to average time, is at 84%.
"Since we're so close, why can't the cycle bottom already be in?"
Looking back at other August/Septembers in bear markets, you could have asked the same question. Only in hindsight do we know that price went lower.
Pressure is high to accept that the bull market is here.
While I could easily come up with a host of evidence as to why that's true, it would also mean these things:
- the cycle is broken
- the bottom was obvious and "everyone" was right
- the cycle bottom data that hasn't been fufilled will not be
And maybe that's how it i

BITCOIN IS TESTING A VERY IMPORTANT LEVEL
BTC is sitting around $78,300 after spending the last few days chopping around beneath $80K.
On the 4H chart, the Bollinger Bands are starting to tighten again.
That usually means volatility is building.
The level I’m watching is $79,400.
That’s currently the upper Bollinger Band and just below the big psychological $80K level.
If BTC can break and hold above $79.4K-$80K, I’d be watching for a move back towards the $81K-$82K highs.
But there’s another side to this.
$78,200 is the 4H mid-band and the first level I’d want to see hold.
Lose that, and $77K

And shortly after, the bottom was formed for $BTC
At this point, the main argument against $57K being the cycle low is simply seasonality and historical price action fractals.
That's literally it.
Because almost every other metric is pointing in the opposite direction, suggesting that $57K was, in fact, the cycle low.
But you should know by now, markets don't repeat forever. At some point, BTC will do something it has never done before.
And when that shift happens, those relying purely on historical patterns will be the last to adapt.

Interesting correlation between USDT.D and $BTC right now.
So far, we’ve followed the 2022 structure almost identically. But at some point, there’s a good chance that correlation breaks and we do something different.
If we continue following 2022 for now, the path is fairly simple:
BTC enters an upper range and chops.
USDT.D fails to sweep its highs, instead forming a lower high before eventually rotating back towards its current support.
That support is the key level.
If USDT.D respects it, expect more chop and consolidation from BTC.
If USDT.D breaks it with significant weakness, that could

$BTC This week, we had three deviations outside of fair value.
The most recent one came after a break to the downside.
Usually, price retraces back into value, and price often gets pulled toward the POC.
This makes a retest of 78.8K likely this weekend.

$BTC It seems like there is strong buying interest around the $76K area.
The order book currently shows a large concentration of resting bids sitting between roughly $75.5K and $76.8K.
This suggests that buyers are willing to step in around that region, which could make it an important support area if price continues lower.
Considering that LTF structure has already turned bearish, I still think there is a decent chance that BTC trades into this zone before we see a stronger reaction.
What will be important is whether those bids remain in the book as price approaches them.
If they stay in plac

Far fetched but what if... $BTC
We’ve been following 2022 PA since the top. What if we’re witnessing re-accumulation before expansion?
As long as we hold the channel low, the structure remains valid. Fail to hold it, and I’ll be looking for the 75.6K low for scalp longs.