#SpaceX认购规模超2500亿美元

SpaceX has stated a target IPO price of $135 per share, which corresponds to a valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion, and Reuters reported that demand exceeded $250 billion (approximately 3.3-4 times the planned $75 billion in funding).

The real question is whether this demand will translate into a higher final price.

My assessment of the final IPO price:

There are three possible outcomes:

Scenario IPO Price Probability (subjective)
Price unchanged $135 High
Moderate increase $145-160 Medium
Aggressive pricing $170 and above Low

Reuters also reported that SpaceX told banks it was sticking to the $135 price despite overwhelming demand.

Therefore, I think the most likely outcome is:

Final pricing: $135-150 per share

Even if demand is very high, Elon Musk might prefer:

* A successful first trading day
* Positive media coverage
* Strong individual investor participation
* Long-term shareholder satisfaction

Instead of extracting every possible dollar from the IPO itself.

Post-listing growth potential

Here, opinions diverge sharply.

Bullshine scenario

SpaceX has many businesses under one roof:

* Launch services
* Starlink satellite internet
* Direct-to-mobile communications
* Future AI infrastructure goals
* Potential Mars-related businesses

Some analysts argue that if Starlink continues to expand globally, revenue could rise from under $20 billion today to hundreds of billions of dollars by 2030.

In a very optimistic scenario:

* IPO value: ~$1.75 trillion
* Future valuation: $3-5 trillion

This roughly translates to:

* Potential upside of 70% to 185% within a few years

Worst scenario

At $1.75 trillion, a large portion of future success is already priced in.

Risks include:

* Starship implementation challenges
* Competition from rivals such as Amazon's satellite initiatives
* Regulatory issues
* Slower-than-expected Starlink growth
* General market weakness

These concerns are voiced by analysts discussing the worst-case scenario.

What I expect

If the IPO price is $135:

* Day 1 trading: Potentially $160-220 if demand remains strong.

* 12-24 month range: Largely dependent on Starlink growth and Starship milestones.

* Long-term (5+ years): SpaceX could become one of the world's most valuable companies, but with an initial valuation of $1.75 trillion, future earnings are likely to be much smaller than the 10x or 20x returns seen in early private funding rounds.

My rough estimate:

* Conservative outcome: $120–$180
* Base scenario: $180–$300
* Optimistic scenario: $300–$500+

These are personal valuation ranges, not estimates or investment advice.

Additional caveat: Expectations are already very high because this IPO is extremely large and widely discussed. Historically, when an IPO becomes the dominant topic of the market, short-term volatility after the listing can be significant, even if the company is fundamentally strong.