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💀 Tonight's CPI "explodes" the market! The worst isn't $BTC , surprisingly it's it?
Tonight, the most panic-stricken aren't the crypto holders, but Wall Street.
The fear index VIX soared 13.39% last night to 22.53 points, hitting a new high since April 8th. As soon as the CPI data is released tonight, crypto, gold, and stocks are all getting hit. By 8 p.m. data, nearly 120k traders were liquidated, with over $400 million in losses. The geopolitical situation is even more surreal — Israel just announced that its attack on Iran is "to prepare for a bigger strike," and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard immediately launched missiles at U.S. military bases.
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👀 First, look at Bitcoin (BTC): trading sideways around 61,074, with obvious volume contraction.
1-hour SAR at 60,933, Bollinger upper and lower bands converging at 61,144—60,888, EMA all clustering around 61,000. Both bulls and bears are waiting for news; no one dares to make a move now. In the short term, watch the direction after CPI data lands.
🐋 Breaking the norms — a whale who is losing money on BTC has an unrealized loss of over $3.4 million, and tonight, they opened a long position of over 81,246 BTC (worth $49.55 million) with more than 5x leverage. The new position is currently down $260k. This strategy of buying in batches at ultra-low prices, rather than at technical levels, reminds us to observe the strength of this "iron bottom."
🐳 The chain's "oscillating back and forth"
ZEC dropped over 11% today. Interestingly, Garrett Jin, a whale associated with CZ, closed a short position of $626 (with a profit of $11.24 million), then opened a long position of 27,700 ZEC (worth $459), currently with an unrealized loss of about $60k. Top traders are battling at high levels, making this market truly "lively."
🎙 CZ's early morning statement: "Bitcoin won't die for long."
Since Bitcoin's peak of 126k on October 12 last year, CZ calmly added: Don't Panic.
📊 QCP hits the nail on the head: geopolitical tensions + interest rates + AI stocks exerting pressure, making it hard for the crypto market to strengthen independently.
AI stocks pre-market are under pressure, with Micron $ZEC , AMD, and ARM down over 4%, Nvidia down over 2%. If CPI exceeds 4.2%, rate hike expectations will heat up again, and the market will need to continue digesting the pressure.
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📌 Here are some points I observed (for reference only, DYOR):
· If CPI significantly exceeds expectations → short-term risk assets will continue to be pressured, whether whales can hold $60,000 is key.
· If CPI unexpectedly drops below 3.5% → tightening expectations will loosen, offering a correction opportunity.
· ZEC whales shifted from large short-term profits to large unrealized losses within less than a month → on-chain large funds are highly divided, increasing volatility.
📌 Veteran trader experience:
The most information is also the most noise. Tonight's CPI is very important, but it's not the end. In times of maximum uncertainty, doing nothing can sometimes be more valuable than reckless action. Controlling your position size is the most practical.
Follow me to grasp more on-chain data and capital movements 🧐