U.S. Department of Labor will release the May CPI on the evening of June 10 Beijing time.

Mainstream Wall Street expectations are that the overall CPI year-over-year will jump from 3.8% in April to 4.2%, the first time breaking 4% since May 2023;
Core CPI is expected to rise slightly to 2.9% year-over-year, with a month-over-month increase of about 0.3%.

Driving factors: Middle East geopolitical conflicts have caused a sharp rise in international oil prices, with gasoline components possibly increasing over 6% month-over-month;
combined with the low base effect from the same period last year, this is the main reason for the overall CPI surge.
On the core level, rent (OER) growth has slowed, but rising jet fuel prices have pushed up transportation services like airfare,
tariff transmission has halted the decline of some goods prices, and inflation remains sticky.

Market implications: If the actual figure meets or exceeds expectations (≥4.2%), it will essentially eliminate the Fed’s room to cut interest rates this year,
and some institutions have even started pricing in the possibility of resuming rate hikes—U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index are likely to spike in the short term,
gold prices will be under pressure, and U.S. stocks, especially the tech growth sector, face valuation downside risks;
if the figure is unexpectedly significantly lower than expected (e.g., YoY ≤3.9%), the "higher for longer" expectation will loosen,
and risk assets may rebound.

This data is a key validation for the Fed’s policy stance following strong non-farm payrolls,
and the release tonight usually causes significant market volatility, so risk management is essential.