$61k Bitcoin, are you scared?

First look at the surface: terrible, really terrible.

The past week has been the worst since the FTX collapse, with the entire market evaporating $390 billion, and BTC once dropped to $59,100, currently hanging around $61k-$62k. The daily chart is all bearish alignment, MACD dead cross, RSI bouncing around 40, everyone is telling you "the bear is here."

But a closer look—volume is shrinking, fewer people are cutting losses.

Candlestick charts don't lie: after a series of down days, a small bullish candle appears with a rebound, volume shrinks to very low levels. This is called "bottoming after panic."

First thing: ETFs are running, but the real dead bulls haven't moved.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have been net outflows for four consecutive weeks, another $1.72 billion left this week, led by BlackRock IBIT. But MicroStrategy just added $155 million last week, buying 1,550 BTC. Total holdings now at 845k BTC, still executing the "Bitcoin Treasury" strategy.

Another thing: Chinese courts just reaffirmed BTC as "protected property," and Japan's major banks plan to launch stablecoins by 2027.

Second thing: macro conditions are at their worst, which is the best window to buy.

US-Iran tensions escalate, oil prices soar, inflation can't be contained, Fed interest rates stuck at 3.50%-3.75%, possibly only one rate cut in 2026, or even pushed to 2027.

Geopolitical conflicts will eventually ease; oil prices won't keep rising forever, inflation will peak sooner or later. *And Bitcoin's halving effect is still fermenting; by March 2026, 20 million BTC will have been mined, only 1 million left to mine.*

Third thing: a technical signal that must be taken seriously.

The $61k level is no longer just a psychological barrier.

On-chain indicators MVRV and Spent Output Profit Ratio have fallen to late 2018 and late 2022 levels. Every time these indicators reach this level, the subsequent rise is more than double.

Although the daily chart shows bearish alignment, RSI isn't oversold (around 40), and MACD histogram is starting to narrow. The 4-hour chart already shows a weak low + rebound structure, just waiting for a volume-confirmed bullish candle.

Bull vs. bear, you decide.

One side is:

- MicroStrategy adding 155 million in contrarian buy, total holdings 845k BTC

- Chinese courts reaffirm BTC as protected property, Japanese major banks pushing stablecoins

- On-chain indicators at historical bottom zones

- Post-halving supply exhaustion, fewer BTC on exchanges

The other side is:

- Geopolitical conflicts + high inflation, Fed not cutting rates

- ETF net outflows of 54 billion over 4 weeks

- Capital rotation into AI, institutions seeking short-term hedges

- 65k becomes a strong resistance, breaking through requires huge volume

Key level: $61k, just $1,000 away from the critical $60k line.

Resistance above: $63k → $65k (breakout with volume reverses trend) → $72k-$74k

Support below: $60k (psychological level) → $58k-$59k (final defense)

Short-term traders:

Wait for CPI data and Fed meeting. If geopolitical easing + inflation falling unexpectedly, reduce positions at $63k-$65k. Stop-loss if below $59k.

Swing traders:

Start dollar-cost averaging in the $60k-$61k range, adding 10% each time it drops 5%. Stop half at below $58k, re-enter at $55k-$57k. After stabilizing above $65k, add more, aiming for $72k-$74k.

Long-term believers:

BTC below $60k is like the $16k at the end of 2022. DCA blindly, don’t look at candles, target new highs by 2027 ($845k-$150k). Betting on geopolitical easing + rate cut cycle + ETF inflows recovery.

BTC now is like gold in March 2020—

During the pandemic crash, everyone cut losses, but gold rose from $1500 to $2000, Bitcoin from $5000 to $60k.

Every halving has paved the way for the next new high. #Gate直通IPO认购SpaceX #Anthropic发布Fable5模型 $BTC $ETH $SOL