#GateIPOAccessSpaceX

SPACEX IPO: THE $250 BILLION DEMAND TSUNAMI THAT IS SHATTERING EVERY RECORD

THE NUMBERS THAT REDEFINED IPO HISTORY

The SpaceX IPO has rewritten financial history. According to Reuters, investor demand for the SpaceX IPO has exceeded $250 billion, nearly four times the company’s $75 billion fundraising target. This is set to become the largest IPO in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco’s $29 billion IPO record from 2019.

IPO Price: $135 per share (fixed, no range)
Shares Offered: Approximately 555.6 million shares
Target Fundraising: $75 billion
Implied Valuation: $1.77 trillion
Oversubscription Rate: 3.5x to 4x
Ticker Symbol: SPCX
Exchange: Nasdaq
Pricing Date: June 11, 2026
Listing Date: June 12, 2026
Retail Allocation Target: 30% (far higher than the typical 5–10%)

This unprecedented wave of demand was initially reported at $150 billion on June 5 (Reuters), and has now surged to $250 billion by June 9. Morgan Stanley is hosting launch meetings in Midtown Manhattan with over 300 institutional investors, attended by SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell and CFO Bret Johnsen.

THE THREE BUSINESSES DRIVING THE $1.77 TRILLION VALUATION DREAM

SpaceX is not just a rocket company. Its S-1 filing reveals three distinct business segments:

SPACE SEGMENT
Launch services generated $4.1 billion in revenue in 2025, showing 8% year-on-year growth. Pentagon and NASA contracts remain key drivers. Falcon 9 and Starship reusable rockets dominate orbital payload capacity globally.
Operating loss: $619 million (Q1 2026)
This segment is not yet profitable but maintains a strong competitive advantage.

CONNECTIVITY SEGMENT (STARLINK)
This is SpaceX’s economic engine. Starlink generated over $11.5 billion in 2025 revenue, with approximately 10.3 million subscribers and a 50% growth rate.
Operating profit: $4.4 billion (2025)
Q1 2026 revenue: $3.26 billion
This remains the only consistently profitable segment.

AI SEGMENT (xAI)
This is the most controversial and speculative segment. xAI was absorbed into SpaceX through a $250 billion all-stock merger in February 2026.
Q1 2026 operating loss: $2.5 billion

Goldman Sachs projections suggest AI revenue could grow from $3.2 billion (2025) to $322 billion by 2030. A 1-gigawatt AI compute cluster is already operational as of Q1 2026.

The Colossus 1 data center is reportedly being rented to Anthropic for $1.25 billion per month and to Google for $920 million per month. These announcements came right before the IPO, significantly boosting investor sentiment.

Total 2025 revenue: $18.7 billion
Q1 2026 operating cash flow: $6.8 billion
2025 CapEx: $20.7 billion (including $12.7 billion AI CapEx)
Total addressable market claim: $28.5 trillion

THE VALUATION DEBATE: GENIUS OR GRAVY?

The $1.77 trillion valuation has sharply divided analysts.

MORNINGSTAR
Fair value estimate: $780 billion
Nicolas Owens states the stock is trading at 107x sales, calling it one of the most expensive stocks in history. He assigns only a 7% probability to the $1.3 trillion best-case scenario.

ASWATH DAMODARAN
Values SpaceX at $1.25–$1.35 trillion, calling it “too richly priced.” He argues that while space and connectivity segments are strong, AI remains the biggest wildcard.

JIM CRAMER
Suggests SpaceX could reach a $5 trillion valuation on IPO day, implying nearly 180% upside from the $135 price.

Goldman Sachs
Projects revenue could reach $474 billion by 2030, with AI alone contributing $322 billion.

SpaceX has bypassed the traditional IPO pricing range and set a fixed $135 price. Retail allocation is unusually high at 30%, compared to the typical 5–10%.

THE PROFITABILITY PARADOX

SpaceX is not profitable.

2025 Net Loss: $4.94 billion
Q1 2026 Net Loss: $4.28 billion
xAI Operating Loss: $2.5 billion
Space Segment Loss: $619 million
Starlink Profit: $4.4 billion (only profitable segment)

This creates a paradox: massive investor demand for a company that is still deeply unprofitable overall.

GATE IPO ACCESS: SPCX EXPOSURE

Gate’s Pre-IPO debut project offers exposure to SpaceX (SPCX).

Available SPCX Units: 33,900
Per Unit Price: $590
Implied Valuation: ~$1.4 trillion
Already Committed: Over $30 million
Subscription Page: gate.com/zh/ipos/13
Deadline: June 12, 2026, 04:00 UTC

This pricing implies a lower valuation than the official $1.77 trillion IPO, potentially offering a comparatively attractive entry point.

THE MAKING OF THE FIRST TRILLIONAIRE

Elon Musk’s personal wealth could surpass $1 trillion following the SpaceX IPO. SpaceX is expected to be classified as a controlled company, giving Musk significant concentrated control.

This raises broader questions about wealth concentration, where an individual’s fortune could exceed the GDP of multiple countries.

WHAT HAPPENS ON JUNE 12?

Several scenarios are possible:

Scenario 1: Massive first-day surge
Limited public float (around 4.2%) combined with 4x oversubscription could trigger intense buying pressure and sharp gains.

Scenario 2: Extreme volatility
According to Cathie Wood, the stock may experience significant volatility in early trading.

Scenario 3: Long-term stabilization
Over time, price may converge toward fundamental valuation estimates from analysts like Morningstar and Damodaran.

SpaceX claims a total addressable market of $28.5 trillion, including $23 trillion from enterprise AI, but execution risk remains extremely high.

DISCUSSION QUESTIONS FOR THE COMMUNITY

Did you participate in the Gate SpaceX IPO subscription? What allocation did you receive?
Where do you think SPCX will trade on day one after listing?
Is SpaceX at $1.77 trillion a buy, a bubble, or a long-term AI-driven bet?
Does AI growth justify current losses, or is this pure speculation?