Tonight at 8:30, CPI data release

Gold dips below $4,200, hitting a three-month low.

The US and Iran are at war, missiles are flying, yet gold is falling.

Do you think this is normal?

Not normal. But in the face of “inflation,” even world wars have to line up.

At 8:30 tonight, the US will release its May CPI data. This is the final trump card before the June 16-17 FOMC meeting.

According to TD Securities’ forecast: the overall CPI year-over-year rate is 4.2%, compared with the prior value of 3.4%. Core CPI is 2.8%.

70% of economists say: don’t expect rate cuts this year.

Goldman Sachs is even harsher: rate cuts pushed out to 2027, with the probability of rate hikes raised to 20%.

In the past, when CPI was higher, everyone still hoped it was “temporary.” What about now? The US-Iran conflict is escalating, oil prices are approaching 95, and the Strait of Hormuz is a sword hanging overhead—every fuse for input-driven inflation has been lit.

If tonight’s CPI really reaches 4.2%, then rate hikes won’t be a mere “expectation”—they’ll be a countdown.

BTC just caught its breath near 61k, and the Nasdaq is down 3.5% and hasn’t recovered yet. Is this the bottom? Is this the calm before the storm?

“CPI data isn’t news—it’s Judgment Day.”

So the question is—before and after the CPI data, how exactly should you act?

I’ll tell you my approach directly:

First, 4 hours before the data is released, cut your position to below 50%.

Don’t tell me about “long-term holding.” If CPI comes in above expectations, one sharp sell-off can wipe out months of your profits. You can be bullish on BTC, but don’t go all-in long on the night before CPI.

Second, don’t actively play the game—only react passively.

Once the data comes out: if it’s higher than 4%, wait until the dip has fully played out before considering entry; don’t chase after the first spike. If it’s below 3.5%, that’s an unexpected bonus—there’s still plenty of time to buy.

Why don’t I recommend you “hold your position”?

Because this time is different.

Gold has already shown you: geopolitical conflicts can’t move safe-haven assets—because the market recognizes only one logic—inflation → tightening → a stronger dollar → risk assets die.

Holding your position means handing your fate to a number. And you won’t know that number even a second in advance.

Why don’t I recommend you “actively short”?

Because if CPI comes in below expectations, shorts can get blown up into fireworks in an instant.

The steadiest move is to reduce your position, hold your U firmly, and watch the show.

Wait until market sentiment has fully washed through, wait for the first hour of big swings, then make a calm judgment.

“On CPI release night, the ones who last longer aren’t the ones who guessed the direction correctly—they’re the ones with lighter positions.” #Strategy低位加仓1550枚BTC #美股AI概念股普涨 $BTC $ETH $SOL