$BTC | Update (4H)

We saw a bearish breakout from the symmetrical triangle and are now moving towards the 50% Wick Fill region of the last weekly candle, where we have some untested liquidity as well as a Long Limit that got front-ran earlier.

I still expect that long to be filled. However, the risk on that position is only 0.25%, and it's also acting as a hedge against my short, so it's basically risk-free.

Although I am leaning more bullish for the rest of the month, I still need confirmation of that BIAS, which a bounce from 60.7k would provide.

Losing 60.7k will open room for lower prices, bringing 58.9k into the picture. Given that the Daily trend is showing signs of exhaustion, it's very likely that we hold the 60.7k-58.9k region and start recovering back towards the upside.

However, exhaustion does not always mean reversal. Sometimes the market can slowly bleed lower while hunting liquidity on both sides, leading to extremely choppy conditions. This type of price action is commonly seen near major tops and bottoms.

Considering that we are getting closer to a macro bottom, a slow and choppy bleed to the downside is not something to ignore. If that scenario starts playing out, then the 54.5k-49k region will become the next downside target.