AriaNaka

$BTC Reversal incoming ?
After bouncing off the 60k level and forming multiple indications of a short-term relief rally, price has now printed a bear flag.
We’re currently trading just above the lower boundary of the pattern.
If we get another bounce off the ascending trendline, a retest of the upper boundary of the bear flag and a sweep of the highs becomes likely.
If we break below instead, I expect the 61k low to get swept.

$BTC Price broke above 64k but couldn't hold the level,
Now we are getting a pullback and price is currently sitting sub 63k (prior support zone),
Perps CVD is slowly pulling back alongside spot CVD, which is also rolling over.
There weren't any major liquidation after the previous short squeeze other than some small longs rekt.
The higher lows is still holding and structure hasn't broken, so overall it's still bullish and could run to 65-66k,
But CVDs reversing at resistances is the same pattern that caused previous bounces to stall and decline.
So it could play out similar + I got a piv

$BTC Observing the same key areas mentioned in the last update.
As of now, we are trading inside a symmetrical triangle, which is generally considered a neutral chart pattern. This means the probability of a breakout in either direction is roughly 50/50.
If we get a bearish breakout, then I expect a move down towards the 60.7k region. That level needs to hold if we want to see continuation towards the upside.
Lose 60.7k, and 58.9k will be next.

Zcash devs finalized the Ironwood upgrade, adding a new Orchard shielded pool to reduce the risk of unlimited counterfeit $ZEC circulating.
ZEC has now recovered +80% from its intraday low of around $252 on June 5.

Humanity Protocol crashed -90% in 12 hours, erasing over $1 BILLION in market cap, just days after surging +339%.
The collapse came after an attacker drained over $31 million from wallets linked to Humanity's app, then started swapping the stolen $H into $ETH
The founder confirmed it was a security breach tied to compromised private keys from a Humanity Foundation member.

$BTC Short Squeeze Potential
HUGE PROBLEM...
Low Leveraged shorts are heavy in the 64-66k range.
These positions carry the most potential for liquidation because they are large position trades.
The perfect target for MM's exit liquidity.

$BTC Long Liquidation Delta
Flipped GREEN today
A far cry from -30b, less than 2 days ago
Bulls have regained control...

$BTC Everyone is calling for a breakdown.
I am looking at the data.
Historically, Bitcoin prints a green July in midterm years after a red June.
A red June close is almost inevitable at this point.
I expect more chop this month, but I am positioning for a relief rally while most are preparing for the opposite.

$BTC About a month ago I pointed out that we were likely approaching the distribution phase of this pattern.
This turned out to be pretty accurate.
Just like earlier in this bear market, BTC first formed an accumulation range before pushing higher and sweeping liquidity above the highs.
Instead of a continuation to the upside, however, price transitioned into distribution and has since sold off more than 20%.
What's interesting is that the previous distribution phase continued with significantly more downside after the initial breakdown.
If the current structure continues to follow the same b

$BTC JUST FLASHED THE MOST DANGEROUS SIGNAL OF THIS CYCLE
This chart overlays the three previous Bitcoin bear markets and reveals a striking technical alignment. Price has already reached a drawdown comparable to the early stages of the 2014, 2018, and 2022 capitulation phases, while historical bear market trajectories continue pointing toward a deeper downside extension.
The key area to watch is the $35K to $50K unification zone, where multiple cycle structures converge. Historically, Bitcoin tends to compress within these zones before the final liquidity sweep. If this fractal continues to

$BTC daily plan & hedge long
My primary thesis remains unchanged.
We still have meaningful liquidity and positioning overhead, while order flow continues to look constructive for now
That's why I expect the higher probability path is a mitigation higher before any larger continuation lower.
I adjusted my hedge entries slightly:
> 50% size at 61.6k
> Remaining 50% around 61k
Reasoning is straightforward:
> Liquidity has been building around 61k
> The 61.2k level remains the largest single liquidity level on my board (~250M) -> sits around GP
As long as we remain above the previous range low, I

$BTC Three different bear markets. Same bottoming structure.
This hasn't happened yet in this cycle, but I remain HTF bullish.
My view remains simple, we are approaching this bottoming phase, and when it finally arrives, most will remain sidelined calling for lower prices. There's no edge in fighting a pattern that has repeated at every bear market bottom. This time likely isn't different.
I'm positioned for this scenario to play out in the 60–52K region. I'm buying spot, and I'm already in swing longs.

$BTC The percentage of BTC holders who are sitting at a loss right now just hit its highest level during this bear market.
Currently, nearly 50% of the Bitcoin supply is being held at a loss.
Historically, periods where a large portion of holders are underwater have often coincided with increased fear and capitulation across the market.
What's crazy is that less than a month ago, around 70% of holders were still in profit.
This highlights just how aggressive the recent selloff has been and how quickly market sentiment can shift once key support levels begin to break down.

$BTC Rectangle Pattern
If lower range support at 62.4k holds, it's likely we see a retest of 64k+
However, FVG's below + 3d liquidation suggest downside is also possible.
Rectangle patterns are fundamentally neutral.
So it's best to be patient in situations like these.

People are genuinely scared to build leverage positions.
Every time OI has reached lower levels and the market has been significantly deleveraged, it has coincided with a HTF $BTC bottom more times than not.
Big players take advantage of situations like this.

$ETH has only done this once before in its entire history.
Back in June 2022, ETH broke through every support level and crashed to $880. Everyone gave up on it. That turned out to be the exact bottom of the whole bear market.
Now it's June 2026, the same month, same breakdown, and same chart structure.
ETH peaked at $4,953 in August 2025. Today it's at $1,593. That's a 68% crash in just 10 months.
Its weekly 200 MA sits at $2,471, and price has fallen straight through it. The next support level to watch is $1,500.
Two ways this plays out:
If ETH holds $1,500, this could play out exactly like

Bitcoin dropped 14% last week after breaking down from an ascending channel.
The structure looks a lot like the 2022 bear market. Back then, $BTC bottomed after a 78% dump. This cycle’s correction is 53% so far.
So where’s the bottom?
In the last 3 cycles, BTC found strong support at the weekly 200 MA twice and started a new bull run after testing it for a few weeks. If the 200 WMA holds, $59,100 could be the cycle bottom.
But there’s more.
In past cycles, BTC bottomed almost exactly one year after the bull market top. If that repeats, the bottom lands in October 2026.
And historically, BTC h

Time it took for $BTC to bottom after the halving.
2012: 777 Days
2016: 882 Days
2020: 924 Days
Price has now passed the fastest bottoming date and is currently sitting at day 780.
If this cycle continues to correlate with previous cycles, the bottom will likely be found within the next 150 days.
The bear market bottom is much closer than most think.
This is not the time to flip bearish.

$BTC What I am doing next ?
Well, we are currently getting a pullback after pushing to 64.2k+,
The next support that is very likely gonna hold is 61k, as we previously got a strong bounce from there,
Though if we fail to hold this zone,
We are going straight for the liquidity hunt of range lows and can extend it to a sweep of 58k.
Good thing is we fully TPed our longs at 64.1k (discord), I didn't short there cuz it was not optimal at all,
And we still got liquidity higher, so it can easily get extended to 65-66k,
There's also CPI coming on 10th June,
So, it's very possible for price to get a

$BTC | Update (1D)
We bounced from 59.8k after sweeping the previous low and closed the weekly with a wick to the downside. Inside that wick, we have some LTF levels with untapped liquidity created over the weekend that is still pending to be taken out.
A pullback towards 60,708 would fill roughly 50% of the last weekly candle's wick while also clearing some of the liquidity created over the weekend. If we get that pullback, I'll be looking for a scalp long from there.
In terms of where I see us headed this week, I'm eyeing 64.9k as the pivotal level that will determine the next move.
If