AriaNaka

$BTC STH have been realizing losses for about nine months now, a dynamic typical of a bear market.
With an estimated cost basis of around $68,800, STH remain under pressure for now.
Today, they’re estimated to be realizing around 4% losses as Bitcoin tries to hold above $65,000.
This is a key level that BTC should be able to reclaim to bring a bit more optimism and confidence in the short term, and the market badly needs it.

Hedges are off, shorts are closed, and ETF flows have flipped positive.
What $BTC needs now is confirmation at the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $69k, rejection there puts the lower demand shelf back in play.

$BTC Throughout Bitcoin's history, every time we marked a local bottom during a bear market, it was never swept before the pullback to the upside.
When price later came back to that same low, it never held as support. It always broke below it and continued down to form a new local bottom.
But here's the interesting part...
A sweep of the previous local bottom followed by an immediate reclaim has historically always resulted in a bear market bottom.
We've seen this play out in 2 out of the last 3 bear markets, with 2018 being the only exception to this behavior.
If we repeat the same behavior t

$BTC tapped our short-POI and shows a pullback.
If you took the short, I suggest you take some profits of the table and go BE.
For potential trades today I'm looking at a few scenario's here.
I'm bearish overall and we got a nice reaction from the POI I was talking about for a week now.
But does that mean the 68.1K high is off the table as a target? No, so that's why going BE + take profit here is proper risk management.
The sweep of 68.1K would be the best case for shorts, so I'm willing to long the reaction after the sweep of the 65K lows.
So basically the plan comes down to this: letting th

$BTC The Reversal Duo has once again proven why it's one of the strongest candlestick reversal combinations.
We're now seeing a bullish structure continue to develop on the Weekly.
I've already shared my in-depth plan and the confluences behind why I believe the bottom is in, and so far I see no reason to change that view.
Keeping an eye on how Price Action develops around the 67k-68k region for some further confirmations.

‍#BLACKROCK $500M BUY STREAK
BlackRock has bought $500M of $BTC over the past 5 days, without selling BTC once.
Will they make it to $1 Billion by the end of this week?

$BTC Why is everything pumping today?
Over $1 Trillion has been added to the stock, metal, and crypto markets.
Key reasons:
1. The White House has reportedly agreed on ethics rules for the Crypto Clarity Act.
2. Hopes for US-Iran negotiations.
3. Oil prices are falling, which is good for markets.
4. Big companies are bouncing back ahead of earnings, with investors betting on strong results this week.

BREAKING: Bitcoin reclaims $66K, its highest level in over a month.
$BTC is now up +12.75% in July, recovering roughly half of its 20.5% decline in June.

$BTC Update & Hyblock Heatmaps

Bitcoin swept the highs as expected. Now, we have two options, and need to trade according to the price action we'll see from here:
1. Reject: fail to close and hold above 66K, and the drawn short is live.
2. Reclaim: close and hold above 66k -> close the weekly FVG until 72k, look for shorts there.
Bias stays bearish until we see real strength above the key resistances. Until then, every push into 66k is a supply test, not a breakout.

$BTC Derivatives Just Flashed a Signal the Crowd Is Ignoring
While fear continues to dominate sentiment, the Bitcoin Derivative Market Power indicator has quietly rebounded back above 41%, recovering from multiple bearish resets during this cycle. Historically, sustained moves into positive territory have reflected increasing buyer aggression in derivatives, often appearing before spot price momentum fully returns.
What makes this setup interesting is the growing divergence. BTC price remains trapped below previous highs, yet derivative market strength is steadily recovering. This suggests th

$BTC We're bouncing from the VAL and reclaiming back above the Weekly Open (63.7k). For continuation to the upside, We need to keep holding this zone.
The EQH's at 65.5k remain my target. From the way price is behaving, We keep front running the liquidity resting below the range. That can mean one of two things:
1) We're accumulating beneath the range, trapping late longs through the chop while consistently sweeping the highs to keep shorts out of the move.
2) There's enough buying momentum from the MM's that they no longer need to hunt the lows for liquidity. Instead, They're front running re

$BTC Price is currently trading between two major liquidation clusters.
The nearest liquidity sits above price around $66K–$67K, while a much larger concentration remains below between roughly $62k and $60k.
If BTC fails to reclaim $65k soon, I expect price to start moving toward the downside liquidity next.
In that case it would make a retest of $61.3K increasingly likely, with the reaction there determining whether the relief rally can continue or whether BTC trades back below $60K.

$BTC We are still trading within this ascending trend channel and just saw a bounce off the support line.
As long as this holds, it’s possible that we keep grinding slowly higher over the next few months. If this happens, I think it would be a strong case that the bottom is already in.
If we lose this uptrend, however, we aren’t done with this bear market yet and will likely see prices below 60K once again.

Next key date for $BTC is July 28.
8 of the last 9 times, price has reacted more bearishly than bullishly after approaching these pivots.
Narrative + context will be important to observe when approaching this period.
We saw the 4% drop after the 14th which I was aiming for. Next key period is the 28th.

$BTC Long Term Holders Just Triggered One of the Strongest Accumulation Signals of This Cycle
While short term traders remain distracted by daily volatility, on chain data is revealing a much bigger story. Bitcoin Long Term Holder supply has climbed to a new all time high above 16.3 million BTC, while the 30 day Accumulation Distribution metric has surged back into aggressive accumulation territory. Historically, this combination has appeared near the beginning of major expansion phases rather than at cycle tops.
The chart shows a recurring pattern. Every period of heavy LTH accumulation has

$BTC Failed to push higher above its local range.
The 4H 200EMA (Blue) held for a second but caused a bearish retest into the range high and now we're back at the 4H 200MA (Purple).
Very choppy few days up, few days down kind of price action the last few weeks. No real action anywhere really.
Pretty typical "Summer" price action honestly. Not an ideal market to trade.

While Strategy has paused its $BTC purchases, ETF-side demand still hasn’t returned.
After ending an 8-week streak of consecutive outflows last week, this week is already back in the red, wiping out last week’s inflows.
Demand keeps weakening on the side of the big players…

If $ZEC can hold this retest of the $540 breakout pivot as HTF support, we should see a push towards the $620 resistance.
That level is the right shoulder of the head and shoulders top from May, and it's the last meaningful lower high left on the chart to take.
Break above $620, and the macro lower high pattern is invalidated, which is where I would become much more excited.
I personally think we're heading back above $700 if that happens.
The bearish counter, on the other hand, is simple.
If we fail to reach or break the $620 shoulder, we're still following the macro lower high pattern, and