AriaNaka

$BTC This is the only chart you need to watch...

We're sat right on the 50 week MA and the bull market support bands.

Historically, multiple weekly closes below this region mean the bear market is still in effect and this rally was manipulation.

Lose these levels and the previous low of $57k could get retested.

I believe this chart is extremely important given the current context.

A lot of people are looking at S&P 500, Nasdaq, crypto and the midterms, and speculating about whether the $BTC bottom is in.

I don’t want to repeat myself, you already know what I think, but with BTC down 13.5% from its highs, I think highlighting posts like this can bring a bit more clarity to the situation.

For the most part, BTC has bottomed in Q4 throughout its history. That’s seasonality, and it’s why people still expect the same thing to happen this cycle.

I want to show why I believe that may not be the case.

$BTC | Update (4H)

It seems like we’re heading lower to fill the Monthly FVG.

Bias for the day is Bullish, But a sweep of the current lows before a pullback is definitely something I’m eyeing on.

74.9k-72.9k is the most important zone for bulls to hold. You don’t wanna see them failing to take control from there.

They’re hunting both sides for now, So it’s extremely likely that we retrace back up towards 80.4k and fill the imbalance created by yesterday’s drop once we establish a low here.

$ETH Removing the SL from BE on ETH and moving it back to 2050.

It's more likely that we'll get wicked out at BE and reverse than actually hit the original SL.

The odds are simply better keeping the original SL in place, considering that our entry isn't at the pico bottom either.

$BTC Well, look at that.

Yesterday's news driven dump wiped out almost all remaining downside liquidity.

And honestly, I think the market needed a deleveraging event like this before the next leg up.

A lot of leveraged positions have now been flushed out, leaving the market in a potentially healthier position for a recovery.

The more panic I see in the market, the more bullish I become.

$BTC During previous bear markets, the bottoms were formed in Q4, which eventually led to a macro top in Q4.

This time, the bottom was formed in Q3, which is why I expect the top to form in Q3 as well.

The previous bear market was about 30% shorter than the one before it. If the bull market moves at a similar pace, we could see a macro top in 2028 rather than 2029.

I'm selling July–August 2028 around 160K.

$ETH Tapping a Major S/R Zone

This is where the Max Pain was sitting, and given the current market narrative, I'd say this zone has delivered exactly what we wanted.

No changes to the plan. We're still inside a Wave 4, and I'm continuing to expect a push into Wave 5 over the next few months.

My Spot Add Limit at 2222 was also triggered. The next one is now sitting at 2160, which is another major historical S/R level.

I expect us to hold this zone and continue working towards the upside.

$BTC Price dumped and cleared the 77-78k level,

We now have the entire upside exposed with ~15B in liquidation till 90k compared to ~1B at 74k.

Which is massively skewed in the favor of bulls.

Expecting price to mark the local bottom here and pump towards the 88-90k level.

Now coming to my current positioning, my swing longs are filled 80% of the total size with only 20% remaining at 75k.

The pump is going to be good.

$BTC During previous bear markets, the bottoms were formed in Q4, which eventually led to a macro top in Q4.

This time, the bottom was formed in Q3, which is why I expect the top to form in Q3 as well.

The previous bear market was about 30% shorter than the one before it. If the bull market moves at a similar pace, we could see a macro top in 2028 rather than 2029.

I'm selling July–August 2028 around 160K.

$BTC Everything is pointing towards another expansion to the upside.

Price has now swept the lows several times while leaving behind multiple untouched highs.

For the past week spot has already started accumulating heavily again while perps are getting overly aggressive trying to push price lower.

At the same time sentiment remains completely bearish and people keep calling for lower prices.

These are exactly the type of conditions you see before another leg up.

I’m now positioned in two swing longs with $BTC and $SOL and remain confident in my thesis.

Let the games begin

$BTC Yesterday's FOMC breakout didn't last long.

Buyers failed to sustain the move, sending price back into the range and below the weekly open.

Now all eyes are on the ascending trendline and the range lows, both of which are still holding.

What's keeping me optimistic is the order flow.

Spot participants continue to buy while perp sellers are trying to push price lower.

As long as spot demand remains strong, I expect buyers to keep defending these levels.

But if spot starts selling as well, things could get ugly pretty quickly.

$BTC Back at the 0.618 Fib / Bottom Trendline Region.

Quite boring PA when we're just bouncing up and down inside the same choppy range.

The plan However, Remains the Same.

As long as we're holding this 0.618 Fib region / Trendline, The breakout from this range will be towards the upside.

Lose this trendline and we'll likely see the 77.8k-74.4k region next, potentially at the start of next month before continuing towards the upside.

$BTC We got ~4B in cumulative liquidation till 77k,

The HTF bias remains 88-90k as we have 3x more liquidation on the upside compared to the downside,

But on the LTF, I think we are gonna get one final sweep of 77-78k before higher.

Regarding my current positioning, I am still 40% in swing long and waiting to add another 40% if we get 78k.

Which should be coming soon seeing how the PA is developing after the FOMC.

$BTC stage is set for the next leg up.

Ahead of the last two FOMC meetings, we had an extended period of slow bleed followed by a major expansion to the upside.

Over the past three weeks, price has once again been slowly grinding lower from $87k all the way down to $79k.

The setup is starting to look very similar.

If history repeats itself and FOMC once again acts as the catalyst, this could be the move that finally sends BTC out of this range and starts the next major expansion higher.

$BTC Further upside is just a matter of time.

Although there is still one significant cluster of long liquidations left between $79k and $77k, I don’t think it necessarily has to get taken out.

However, if we do get a sweep into that region, I will use that chance to increase my spot position and add further to my already running swing long trade.

I believe this area will most likely offer the best buying opportunity we get for the rest of this cycle, so make sure to take advantage of it.

$BTC Price dumped into our bottom pivot window (28-30th),

It didn't went for the sweep of the mFVG (75k) following our last fractal and is now starting to form bottom like structure here,

Considering it, I think we have already got the flush in the last pullback (to 75k),

This is still an idea for now but looking at the time pivot and the current market structure.

It looks like we have formed our purple dot and now it's time to hunt the cluster of liquidity above 88k and form the green dot there.

I am swing long from 80.1k and will be adding some alts if we get any pullback (SOL, ETH,

$BTC First signs of a bullish reversal.

BTC just broke out of the range we've been trading in, which also resembles a falling wedge.

A breakout from this pattern is generally considered bullish and could be an early indication of a potential HTF trend reversal.

If buyers manage to sustain the breakout, I expect a continuation toward $82,446.

There is a significant volume of high-leverage long positions in $BTC until the $78.5k level.

Currently, whales are holding a larger number of short positions.

It is possible that they may leverage the volatility surrounding the FOMC meeting to trigger the liquidation of these long positions, thereby realizing profits on their short positions.

Please exercise caution when using high leverage.