1️⃣ Can the rebound continue? Where is the next key resistance level?
I believe this rebound is driven by short-term emotional recovery and technical factors, with sustainability in doubt, but short-term momentum remains.
· Can it continue: The key is whether it can hold above $63,000 in the next 48 hours without a quick pullback. The rate hike panic triggered by non-farm payrolls has been somewhat digested, but the Federal Reserve's policy path has not shifted, and macro pressure is only temporarily easing. The current rebound lacks clear incremental narratives (such as large ETF inflows, hash rate adjustments after production cuts, etc.), and is mainly driven by short covering and bottom-fishing funds. If the daily close remains above $63,500, the rebound is likely to continue; if it falls below $62,000 again, it may return to sideways consolidation to find a bottom.
· Next key resistance level: the $65,200 - $65,800 range. This area is the lower boundary of the dense trading zone formed in mid to late May, and also the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of this round of decline. Breaking through this requires volume support; otherwise, it is likely to encounter resistance and pull back. Further up is the psychological level of $67,500.
2️⃣ My trading and layout in the current volatility
The market has recently been in a "sharp decline - weak rebound" pattern. I adopt a strategy of low position size for testing, with higher conviction and increased weight:
· Short-term trading: I have lightly entered long positions near $61,800, with a stop loss below $60,500. Currently, the rebound is around $63,300. I will start taking partial profits at $64,500—selling 1/3 of the position—and observe whether it can break through $65,200. **Will not chase high**; if it surges above $65,500 and shows signs of stagnation, I will try short positions with small size to bet on a pullback.
· Mid-term layout: Maintain 40% of the position, mainly in BTC and ETH, with SOL as an auxiliary. The remaining funds are split into two parts:
· One part waits for a pullback confirmation: if the price falls back to the $60,000 - $61,000 zone and stabilizes, gradually increase to 60% position.
· The other part waits for a trend reversal signal: i.e., volume increases and stabilizes above $65,800 with a golden cross on the daily MACD, then add positions on the right side.
· Caution tips: Currently, high leverage contracts are extremely risky. I only use spot or low leverage (within 2x). Also, closely monitor the US CPI data on June 12; if inflation exceeds expectations, the rebound may end abruptly.
Summary: Do not expect a V-shaped reversal, and do not panic about missing the move. Approach with a sideways market mindset, operate in batches at key levels, prioritizing defense over offense.

BTC3.33%

ETH3.40%

SOL6.23%

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Amelia12312026-06-08 06:37:34

#比特币回升5% In light of the current Bitcoin rebound of 5% and its reclaiming of the level above $63,000, here is my market analysis and personal trading strategy:

1️⃣ Can the rebound continue? Where is the next key resistance?

I believe this rebound is a technical rebound driven by short-term sentiment repair. Its sustainability is still in doubt, but the short-term momentum remains.

· Can it continue: The key is whether, over the next 48 hours, price can hold above $63,000 without quickly falling back. The rate-hike fears triggered by the non-farm payrolls have been digested to some extent, but the Federal Reserve’s policy path has not turned; the macro pressure is only temporarily easing. The current rebound lacks a clear incremental narrative (such as large ETF inflows or hash-rate adjustments after production cuts). Instead, it is driven more by short covering and bargain-hunting funds. If the daily candle closes consecutively above $63,500, the rebound may continue. If it falls back below $62,000 again, it could return to range-bound consolidation while searching for a bottom.
· Next key resistance: the $65,200–$65,800 range. This area is the lower boundary of the dense trading zone formed in mid-to-late May, and it is also the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of this round of decline. Breaking above this level requires volume confirmation; otherwise, it will most likely meet resistance and pull back. Above that lies the psychological level at $67,500.

2️⃣ My strategy and layout in the current range trading

Recently, the market has been in a “sharp drop – weak rebound” mode. I’m using a strategy of trying with a low position size first, then adding with higher certainty:

· Short-term trades: I have already entered a small long position around $61,800, with a stop-loss set below $60,500. As the rebound reaches about $63,300, I will start taking partial profits at $64,500—selling 1/3 of the position—and then observe whether it can break above $65,200. **I will not chase the price higher.** If it spikes straight above $65,500 and shows signs of stalling, I may instead try a small short position to bet on a pullback.
· Medium-term positioning: Keep a 40% allocation, mainly in BTC and ETH, with SOL as a supplement. The remaining funds are split into two parts:
· One part waits for a pullback confirmation: if the subsequent price retraces into the $60,000–$61,000 area and stabilizes, then gradually increase to a 60% allocation.
· The other part waits for a trend-reversal signal: i.e., a volume-supported hold above $65,800 and a daily MACD golden cross—then add on the right side.
· Risk-avoidance warning: The risk of current high-leverage contracts is extremely high. I only use spot or low leverage (within 2x). At the same time, closely monitor the U.S. CPI data on June 12—if inflation comes in above expectations, the rebound could end abruptly.

Summary: Don’t fantasize about a V-shaped reversal, and don’t panic into missing opportunities. Approach with a range-trading mindset—operate in batches at key levels, and prioritize defense over aggression.

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