pre market thoughts 10 Jun 26

yields hovered around the same levels. 4.53% for 10y and 5.01% for the 30y. Asian markets like KOSPI relatively sanguine about last night action thus far in US equities with KOSPI down ~3%, far less than what $EWY was indicating. $NKY down just 1.2% as well.
Before we touch on the asian mkt performance, - lets recap what went on in the US session. Into the close, we had a power move in semis as $SMH $MU $NVDA almost closed at the highs of the day. This was primarily from the strong recovery in Semis from earlier that led to such a performance. Initially given the drop, we had close to 30b of selling pressure at the close, however because much of the dip was recovered, there was much less to sell and hence funds who pre-sold ended up having to cover - resulting in a net bidding flow to the end of the session.
Remember what i said in the earlier note? - Its all flows! Nothing fundamentally has changed.
Beyond memory, nuclear, neoclouds, these sectors had names making new local lows - i would expect them to continue to stay challenged over the course of the month - underperforming on both rallies and drawdowns. It is notable however, $NBIS's performance as a sector leader. $NBIS tested the 200s lows and i think if markets are constructive, this sets up a very good spot for $NBIS to dramatically outperform.
Now - given the US back drop, let's understand Asia performance thus far - KOSPI in this context has been very resilient given the leverage unwinding in US. We all know that the korean markets have far more levered long, - looks like the Ants will get to live another day. 285A Kioxia also continues to have strong performance - in fact, $SNDK was a strong outperformer on the day before fading its gains.
Now, flows aside - $ORCL reports earnings today - I think this is a chance for the mkt to revalue $ORCL. Markets will be sensitive as well to whether $ORCL needs to raise.
We also have the new Mythos/Fable model that just got released for 2 weeks - Take about a trial period to lock in users! This is so far, looking like 2-3x more than Opus on token consumption ...which is a fundamental point to note! More compute needed?
$SPCX IPO has been an overhang on the market - i think the market has overplayed its worries on this - If anything, this is fuel for markets to rally at the moment.
What worries me? - $XAU and $BTC - both have been astonishing weak. Especially Gold that has underperformed on both risk on and risk off - gold just seems to be soggy. We are nearing the previous 4120 lows and post that the next support levels are at 3800-4000 range....$BTC has been hovering around 60K. Whilst i dont recommend shorting given the R/R of a short squeeze, historically, $BTC hugging the underside of a range has always led to it breaking to the downside....Not great