degentrading

Pre Market Thoughts - 28 Oct 26
FOMC day is here. I added a bunch of risk into the close yesterday - this was posted on my telegram channel ( - so join in if you want real time updates.
A few thoughts - with regards to neos, we saw the highs in CRWV CDS - CRWV debt has also repriced upwards. In my note before - a business that might fail 4 years later is different from a business that has to fail NOW. Additionally, the $ANT S1 is confirming that serving inference is indeed extremely profitable. The only way for neos to reprice upwards is also for supply destruction via financing constraining b

bidded some $NBIS $NEBX here - post wkend elon stroking neo fears + $ANT S1 out of the way - good r/r to punt a long.

Pre Market Thoughts - 26 Oct 26
Yields are lower across the curve after Friday's risk off moves - 10Y is below 5% and the 30Y is below 5.3%. In my previous notes, i talked about the positioning in bond futures - this positioning is still extremely stretched and lends technical support towards the case for lower yields from here.
What is interesting with the move lower in yields and the dollar is Gold's performance. This has been a bit of a head scratcher for me because you would have expected Gold to shine in such situations. No pun intended. Instead it got whacked over the head, breaking bel

Pre Market Thoughts - 23 Oct
Yields lower on a risk off move. With how offside funds are on rates, this move lower in yields is likely to have legs. A short note today because i am busy with some personal matters.
The pain that started in neos has spread into the broader market. NBIS and CRWV were relatively unscathed compared to AI favourites. My game plan is still the same, deploy into a down move.
Moderna also had a big unwind. This has been a recent momentum favourite. It falling apart is a good sign that the pain is spreading. Localised pain in AI is not good. The index getting pummelled

Pre Market Thoughts - 22 Oct 26
Yields a touch higher across the curve. Overnight the US session saw a reversal as neos started to get pressured again. The game plan for neos remains the same as what i said yesterday, after taking some profit - i would deploy in a down move for a longer term trade. Value zones are ~130-140 for NBIS, 40-50s for CRWV. Personally, i prefer NBIS over CRWV - however CRWV might rebound the hardest.
In other markets, memory has moved in sympathy with neos. $SNDK unwound almost a 7% move over the course of 5mins yesterday. Generally, i would treat it as levered beta a

bought $CRWG $nebx

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Pre market thoughts 20 Oct 26
Yields about 2bps higher across the session. In Asia trading, KOSPI was hit hard, being down about 4.3% while NKY is down about 1.3%. This is off the back of a rather sanguine US session last night.
Memory stocks like $WAI CHUN MINING were hit quite hard, being down 4.8%. $SNDK was also punished in overnight trading while $MU also is weighted down. $MU strikes are also another factor potentially for the weight on the stock.
In US session, some notable moves yesterday was $META fading the entire rip pre market into the open. This may be a sign of nerves ahead of earnings.
Ne

On farming Papertrade - some tips. A big part of any slippage comes from 2 sources - the time gap in closing and also congestion. From using the bot, you eliminate the time gap, however congestion is unavoidable at this point in time.
A few farming settings
1 - Stick to BTC vs ETH - the BBO moves jankier with ETH
2 - Stick with moves of 0.3% and 100X lev
3 - try to forecast when volatility is lower (<- we are working on a tool for that!)

$IGV down 5% while $SMH is down 2.5% - this is probably something breaking in the market

bidded $NBIS and $SOXL here. Good luck gents

Pre Market Thoughts - 15 Oct 26
Yields down 10bp across the curve. The signal for this was after the hotter than expected CPI, yields made a kneejerk move higher and then retraced the entire move. I think this is a very strong signal for yields to come down.
Anthropic news release was a non event in terms of newsflow. However to a market that was seeking comfort, it was nothing short of a RESOUNDING SILENCE. This added more fear and anxiety into a crowd already off side on positioning and led to even more degrossing. SK news paper also came out saying that the country needed to be prepared if

Pre Market Thoughts - 15 Oct 26
Yields down 10bp across the curve. The signal for this was after the hotter than expected CPI, yields made a kneejerk move higher and then retraced the entire move. I think this is a very strong signal for yields to come down.
Anthropic news release was a non event in terms of newsflow. However to a market that was seeking comfort, it was nothing short of a RESOUNDING SILENCE. This added more fear and anxiety into a crowd already off side on positioning and led to even more degrossing. SK news paper also came out saying that the country needed to be prepared if