Degentrading

On a sunday, would you rather i write about

Market Open 26 Jun 26
Bloodied start to semis into the open. Hyperscalers seemed to have found a base.
$NBIS 240 was reached, $SMH 610s lows. Memory pooling ALAB and CRDO still relatively strong away from my targets.
Personally, my style remains being disciplined and not letting fear or greed sway me when i already have mapped out a game plan.
In times like this, the same question remains - would you rather to eat well or sleep well?
Good luck!

Can someone smarter than me on TA tell me whats the target if we break the 300 resistance on $NBIS?

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those who wanted an $NBIS dip - heres your chance.

pre mkt thoughts 24 Jun 26
US yields were firm and unchanged for the day. In Asia trading, $KOSPI staged a nice rollercoaster to rebound up 3.5% at this time of writing while $NKY is almost unchanged for the day. When we talk about KOSPI and NKY...we inevitably veer into the memory sector. To really get a comprehensive look at this, we need to of course talk about $SNDK and $MU in NY trading yesterday. Both tickers were down ~13% before we get $MU earnings tonight. $SK HYNIX has staged a very strong rebound into todays session despite multiple curve balls thrown at it. This illustrates to me t

mkt open 23 Jun 26
Writing a little more because of the texture of the moves thus far in the open - much to talk about.
1. Memory cratered, i expect bounces here to be kept on a lid as traders re-assess before $MU earnings tomorrow.
2. Neocloud weakness BUT $NBIS shows why it is the leader of the neoclouds with the pre mkt dip quickly eaten up to $265.... though i would expect this to fade as well if the overall mkt remains soft.
3. Memory pooling is also broadly down ~6-10% with $ALAB, $PENG, $CRDO all taking a hit.
IMO - this while this downdraft is a technical selling, the fragility in th

pre mkt thoughts 23 Jun 26
Right on schedule - just after i made the case to bid protection and to shear off leverage in my notes yesterday, we see Asian and overnight markets hit by selling. KOSPI was down more than 5%, triggering a halt and NKY itself is down 2%. US yields are roughly 3bps higher on both the 10 and 30Y.
Memory names like $SKHYNIX were hit particularly hard with it falling 10%, $285A was not spared as well, falling over 10%. $7709 HK has seen its assets balloon to 17Bn - which further increases the fragility within the sector. $MU and $SNDK are also trading 5% weaker overall.

mkt thoughts 22 Jun 26
First off - the entire hyperscaler complex has sold off dramatically - led by $GOOG at -7% with most of the other names down 5-2%. This is contrasted against the receivers of capex - namely memory and memory pooling solutions. $MU and $SNDK are up ~4-6% with memory pooling solutions like $CRDO up 11%, ALAB up 2%.
In neoclouds, $NBIS was the most resilient name, hovering near 300 before weakness across the entire complex led by $CRWV (-~7%) dragged it down.
In my pre mkt thoughts, i made the case to reduce leverage going into end of Jun. Looking at the current flow and la

pre mkt thoughts 22 Jun 26
US yields relatively unchanged in Asia. Meanwhile big gyrations in asian markets. Lots to unpack here! While KOSPI and HSTECH was unch, NKY is up 1.5% from the open. Underneath this mask of index calmness, single stocks are carrying the entire story. In the memory complex, $285A is up ALMOST 10% from last week, even though the move is only 1% today, this masks the almost 10% move done on friday when US markets were closed. $SK Hynix is also up 4% for the day. As i have reiterated many times, both $285A and $SKHYNIX looks set to get a US ADR listing soon - this will

pre mkt thoughts 18 Jun 26
Yields convulsed post the fed meeting and the signing of the Iran deal. Post the Fed, we had 2Y yields up 15bps while the long end softened by about 5bps in a flattening move.
In asian trading, KOSPI and NKY are both up 1-2% to hit their respective ATHs. This is with SPX weakening into the close in NY trading. My own read into the Fed meeting is - dont read too much into it. Warsh has to tread a fine line. If anything, listing out productivity growth basically gives an excuse to run it hot without needing to hike rates.
In NY trading yesterday, neoclouds as

FOMC -
Initial move is getting reversed as people are now finding out that Warsh is surprisingly not hawkish? WOW. what a shocker.
Neoclouds leading with $NBIS surging to ATHs. Even in the initial SPX sell-off, $NBIS shrugged off the move and continued to ATHs. That's when you know a stock is strong. What happens when we have SPX going up as well?
Meanwhile, $MU back at ATHs as well, next week is earnings.

mkt thoughts 16 Jun 26
In my note yesterday during the US session, i noted that it was a good area to trim before going into FOMC - this short period of softness IS to be expected. Afterall we had a massive short covering session yesterday, expect the market to soften as FOMC hedging takes place overall.
On a longer time frame - i think this weakness offers up the last opportunity to deploy before we scale the FOMC wall of worry.
Tickers i am looking at - $NBIS, $SNDK, $MRVL , $ALAB, $CRDO
On neoclouds, $CRWV surged off a cantor note that $CRWV has hit 90% of its YE27 30B ARR target and is e

$CRWV repricing on Cantor note that $CRWV has already hit 90% of its YE27 30B ARR target and to materially beat estimates for 2Q backlog!

pre mkt thoughts 15 Jun 26
Before i get started with the note - let me just do a quick recap - the week before, i called for caution and highlighted the cheap cost in hedging downside. Almost immediately the market lurched sharply downwards. Last Tuesday i then called for a bottoming in what i themed as a technical driven sell off and for a move to ATHs - we are broadly up 10% or more in many names since then.
First off - i am not a fortune teller. While i may have gotten it right this time, i would tell you that i have also been wrong many times. However, what i keep highlighting is - keep yo

does anyone know which of the neoclouds have the shortest leases?

mkt thoughts - 11 Jun 26
Despite big donald tweets hitting the tape, SPX has shown tremendous amounts of resiliency. Also, the entire hyperscaler complex is underperforming into the session - The market has decided that collectively they are spending too much! - See GS and Barclays both calling for consensus capex spends to be understating for the anticipated amount - which in itself is bullish for recipients of capex... Memory generally strong with $SNDK and NANDs outperforming DRAMs ($MU). Memory pooling names $ALAB and $CRDO are also extremely positive into the session - these names have ou

Pre mkt thoughts - 11 Jun 26
Yields up, with US 10Y at 4.55 and 30Y at 5.03. We had a relatively benign CPI yst and the market was initially constructive before dribbling down into the close.
$ORCL earnings was also not well received by investors as it signalled for 1. MORE capex and 2. Equity raise. As a result $ORCL is down 10% in the overnight market. At this price point, fundamentals are good (especially if bullish on compute) but ST wise, there is pressure on the price given that the company itself is selling stock!
In asian markets, KOSPI and NKY are both just down ~1% today. This is EX