Degentrading

does anyone know which of the neoclouds have the shortest leases?

mkt thoughts - 11 Jun 26
Despite big donald tweets hitting the tape, SPX has shown tremendous amounts of resiliency. Also, the entire hyperscaler complex is underperforming into the session - The market has decided that collectively they are spending too much! - See GS and Barclays both calling for consensus capex spends to be understating for the anticipated amount - which in itself is bullish for recipients of capex... Memory generally strong with $SNDK and NANDs outperforming DRAMs ($MU). Memory pooling names $ALAB and $CRDO are also extremely positive into the session - these names have ou

Pre mkt thoughts - 11 Jun 26
Yields up, with US 10Y at 4.55 and 30Y at 5.03. We had a relatively benign CPI yst and the market was initially constructive before dribbling down into the close.
$ORCL earnings was also not well received by investors as it signalled for 1. MORE capex and 2. Equity raise. As a result $ORCL is down 10% in the overnight market. At this price point, fundamentals are good (especially if bullish on compute) but ST wise, there is pressure on the price given that the company itself is selling stock!
In asian markets, KOSPI and NKY are both just down ~1% today. This is EX

Hey - why do my 0 IQ bull post instantly gets more likes while my carefully thought out pieces accrue likes like a panda hoarding bamboo??? I see all of you underwater longs out there....for now we ride

mkt thoughts - 10 Jun 26
CPI in line - i think we have reached peak fear into the market. I see that the structural deleveraging of products has already gone through.
Going into SPCX IPO - Pricing is tomorrow with trading on friday. Much of the selling flow for the IPO would have taken place.
In short - after calling for yesterday's puke - i am calling for a rebound to ATHs.
Good luck

Some thoughts after using Fable
-> This is VERY good for coding. I think devs will be stuck onto this. Fable also uses at least twice as much tokens. However, i can see myself using it for even more tasks now. Overall, I think the release of Fable is extremely bullish for semis and compute demand....
Try IT!

pre market thoughts 10 Jun 26
yields hovered around the same levels. 4.53% for 10y and 5.01% for the 30y. Asian markets like KOSPI relatively sanguine about last night action thus far in US equities with KOSPI down ~3%, far less than what $EWY was indicating. $NKY down just 1.2% as well.
Before we touch on the asian mkt performance, - lets recap what went on in the US session. Into the close, we had a power move in semis as $SMH $MU $NVDA almost closed at the highs of the day. This was primarily from the strong recovery in Semis from earlier that led to such a performance. Initially given the

US session thoughts - 9 jun 26
We had extremely good bounces across single names to enter the US session. Yesterday's recovery also pushed alot of bids into the semiconductor space. However, given the vol shock on friday, i would expect longs to start trimming exposure here (very good levels) - which in itself is going to kick start another sell off tonight much like friday's. Again, nothing fundamentally has changed. Just flows doing its thing!
SPX would expect a retest of the lows made on friday - which is not that far away - just 75 points.
Across the weaker complexes like nuclear, neocloud

pre mkt thoughts 9 Jun 26
US yields slightly softened by about 1-2bps across. Asian markets were strong led by KOSPI bouncing 8%. 285A was also firm, with a bounce of 6.4%. Overall, asian markets firmed up very strongly and we are back to last fridays pre US session levels.
US pre market was also very strong with retail continuing to bid $MU. $MU now sits close back to the 1K level. If we take a step back and look at the recent (1 day long lol) recovery, we see that it is currently led by memory and other strong names. $MRVL etc. Other sectors like fuel cells, nuclear, neoclouds that were hit

On Neoclouds, $NBIS the leader has now turned to the laggard with most of the space up 7% while $NBIS itself is down 2%. Interestingly, most of leopold's names are also down today - $BE, $TE etc.

Unlike the wkends prior, my feed now has previously doomers now calling for gap ups on monday and those caught the rotations accurately calling for caution - what do you think

Seems to be like 7709 HK needs to sell 2M SK Hynix shares on monday KR open. Which is 40% of the daily volume. Happy for someone to tell me i calculated this wrongly. (please do)

Yields higher into the trading session with 10Y and 30Y both higher - 10Y was up 6bps and 30Y was up 3bps post the employment results. Market used it as a reason to start selling off. We probably have had too much unrealised pnl within the semi space - those single names were hit with relentless selling with memory generally down 7% and even $NVDA down 4%...
CPUs were not spared as well with the entire space down 7% across the board - $INTC, $AMD $ARM
Neoclouds as a whole was brutalised - with $NBIS revisiting its previous lows of 230s. The rest of the neoclouds broke structure with $IREN seei

pre market thoughts - 5 Jun 26
US yields unchanged overnight. In asian markets, KOSPI was down 5% today, while NKY was down 1.5%. Post the US close last night, markets immediately started to soften with NVDA dropping from 220s and $MU break down. This has continued on into the asian session overnight markets today.
Yesterday, i also pointed out that the selling pressure into the open would quickly reverse, and it did. For today, the picture right now looks alot more murkier and i would recommend grossing down exposures or consider simplifying names within the book. Again, i continuously harped

mkt thoughts into the open - 4 jun 26
Interesting tape into the open - we had a wave of selling in high beta recent performers. Memory was hit hard, alongside with the neocloud and nuclear space. However, interestingly to me, the hyperscalers are all up for the day. IMO, i think the selling pressure into the open quickly reverses and we would end up green on the day.
once again, have a plan, trade your plan.
Good luck!

pre mkt thoughts 4 Jun 26
US yields 2bps higher across the curve - we saw the local highs of 4.5% and 5% for 10y and 30y respectively yesterday as the SPX encountered its first bout of weakness in the recent rally. Lots of things to unpack today. First off, in asian trading, KOSPI and NKY both are trading much weaker with 285A Kioxia trading down 9% from the highs of 83k yesterday in US hours Softbank as a high beta stock was also crushed by 11%. SK Hynix as well trades 6% lower from yesterday. Much of the asian markets are carried by the memory ecosystem ...so when they break... look out belo

pre mkt thoughts - 3 Jun 26
US yields broadly unchg on the day. More geopolitical murmurs out of Iran that all is not well. When will the market start to price this in? No idea. But SPCX IPO over the next 2 weeks gives us a date to anchor towards. Vol dynamics in equity space now has the put skew at one of the lowest vs calls - making it much cheaper to hedge and to buy protection, Consider variations of P/S or P/flies on indexes.
In the US session, all eyes were drawn to $MRVL which dragged up the rest of the photonics space which was underperforming over the last week. As of now, $MRVL trade