Degentrading

EOD recap - 2 Jul 26
Overall huge bloodbath in momentum factors today. NDX was down 1.6% with SPX down marginally. However underneath the surface lies a huge sectoral rotation. $AAPL was up 4.64% - just to give you an idea of the sheer amount that semis had to fall to drag the index down.
Looking at momentum factors, this is probably one of the sharpest sell offs in recent history post the dotcom bubble. Momentum as a factor is down about 24% (use your own gauge)
Given that most pods are implicitly long momentum as a factor, i would expect most of them to have been carried out on this move. Ei

This close will be important to watch
Many pods are implicitly long momentum. Given the current drawdown in momentum factor - i think alot of them have been stopped out and will be stopped out soon. Some firms will square off the positions internally, others will try to get it all out by the close.
- posted on my tele first, come into the channel and watch the close if you want

Market update - 2 Jul 26
We probably have about ~24Bn of semis to sell into the close. Some amount (maybe all) would have already been front ran by funds. Given the amount that the momentum factor is down by, i strongly suspect that pods are getting stopped out. Most pods are long momentum factor.
Going into the long wkend, there will be likely risk management stop outs on positions as well. So bear in mind when you see wacky price action.
Tomorrow Korea will be trading. Unless the carnage in $MU and $SNDK stops, i suspect that Korea will be hit pretty hard. $7709 is a trapped whale.
It is al

Also with this brutal drawdown in momentum (neos/memory/cpu) - how many pods got carried out?

After thinking about it, i think this is one of the most bullish news for neoclouds. The 2 biggest bear thesis for neos is depreciation and cost of funding. $NVDA is now tackling that cost of funding leg.

Pre Market Thoughts - 2 Jul 26
The last trading day of the week as the US market goes on a holiday tomorrow.
Overnight in Asia trading, we have KOSPI down about 7% thus far from yesterday's close - tracking the drop in EWY pretty well. Meanwhile NKY is down 2.3%. This drop in performance is strongly correlated with the devastation wrought on memory yesterday. $SKYHYNIX is down 11%, ahead of the 10 Jul listing, we could see bids coming into this. Meanwhile $285A has also been hit extremely hard, down 13% for the day, with strong support at ~65k JPY levels.
Overnight, the banks research departm

Also - for $META's deal with $NBIS - 12B is dedicated for $META. The remaining 15B? $META is obliged to backstop it. $NBIS plans to sell it to other third party customers. In other words...we are so structurally short compute that hyperscalers are willing to sell puts on it in order to get access..

Pre Market Thoughts 30 Jun 26
Plenty of action before the quarterly rebalance in NY trading yesterday.
Broadly we saw memory pooling and compute leading the market - tickers like $ALAB and $NBIS were extremely strong. In my notes before, I was banging the drum that memory pooling and compute will be leading the next rally. $SHAZ also released the 13G yesterday after market like what i talked about last week.
Again, i would like to tell people that I am not a fortune teller. I have gotten things wrong before and will continue to get things wrong. What truly matters is how much you make when yo

On a sunday, would you rather i write about

Market Open 26 Jun 26
Bloodied start to semis into the open. Hyperscalers seemed to have found a base.
$NBIS 240 was reached, $SMH 610s lows. Memory pooling ALAB and CRDO still relatively strong away from my targets.
Personally, my style remains being disciplined and not letting fear or greed sway me when i already have mapped out a game plan.
In times like this, the same question remains - would you rather to eat well or sleep well?
Good luck!

Can someone smarter than me on TA tell me whats the target if we break the 300 resistance on $NBIS?

If you enjoyed reading my market color, i have compiled them onto a substack. Going forward, i will also be trying to explore writing longer form thematic content - If you would like to read those, like and subscribe! (It's free)

those who wanted an $NBIS dip - heres your chance.

pre mkt thoughts 24 Jun 26
US yields were firm and unchanged for the day. In Asia trading, $KOSPI staged a nice rollercoaster to rebound up 3.5% at this time of writing while $NKY is almost unchanged for the day. When we talk about KOSPI and NKY...we inevitably veer into the memory sector. To really get a comprehensive look at this, we need to of course talk about $SNDK and $MU in NY trading yesterday. Both tickers were down ~13% before we get $MU earnings tonight. $SK HYNIX has staged a very strong rebound into todays session despite multiple curve balls thrown at it. This illustrates to me t

mkt open 23 Jun 26
Writing a little more because of the texture of the moves thus far in the open - much to talk about.
1. Memory cratered, i expect bounces here to be kept on a lid as traders re-assess before $MU earnings tomorrow.
2. Neocloud weakness BUT $NBIS shows why it is the leader of the neoclouds with the pre mkt dip quickly eaten up to $265.... though i would expect this to fade as well if the overall mkt remains soft.
3. Memory pooling is also broadly down ~6-10% with $ALAB, $PENG, $CRDO all taking a hit.
IMO - this while this downdraft is a technical selling, the fragility in th

pre mkt thoughts 23 Jun 26
Right on schedule - just after i made the case to bid protection and to shear off leverage in my notes yesterday, we see Asian and overnight markets hit by selling. KOSPI was down more than 5%, triggering a halt and NKY itself is down 2%. US yields are roughly 3bps higher on both the 10 and 30Y.
Memory names like $SKHYNIX were hit particularly hard with it falling 10%, $285A was not spared as well, falling over 10%. $7709 HK has seen its assets balloon to 17Bn - which further increases the fragility within the sector. $MU and $SNDK are also trading 5% weaker overall.