Degentrading

Pre Market Thoughts - 20 Aug 26
In my note yesterday - i said that "Bessent seems intent on juicing the markets and i would not use past seasonal patterns as a guide". Shortly after, he decided that he could no longer let twitter anons be 2 steps ahead of him. The US treasury led by Bessent has taken policy action on the long end of the curve by increasing the buyback amount for the 10-30Y. It is not the quantum of the buying that is important but rather the signalling. Remember, markets stop panicking when policy makers panic. This reminds me of Yellen back then when she increased issuance o

Pre Market Thoughts - 20 Aug 26
In my note yesterday - i said that "Bessent seems intent on juicing the markets and i would not use past seasonal patterns as a guide". Shortly after, he decided that he could no longer let twitter anons be 2 steps ahead of him. The US treasury led by Bessent has taken policy action on the long end of the curve by increasing the buyback amount for the 10-30Y. It is not the quantum of the buying that is important but rather the signalling. Remember, markets stop panicking when policy makers panic. This reminds me of Yellen back then when she increased issuance o

Think the NBIS 2030 CB comes at 0% coupon, 50% premium with 20% accretion

im not very good at macro - but it seems like bessent is basically doing operation twist. which seems to me to be buy everything that is not nailed down???

CB issuance on $NBIS, probably gets delta hedging selling when mkt opens. But 4.5B of CB accrues alot more economic value for $NBIS than the value of dilution. Especially at 1year payback for new projects. This is value accretive

With how bad Claude is performing, i foresee H100 rental prices to continue climbing into the Anthropic IPO

$SKHY will probably do about 100trn won and 130trn won next year in buyback + dividends. This is basically buying back 10% of the company every year

Pre Market Thoughts - 19 Aug 26
Yields still hovering around the highs, crude oil also remains buoyant on ME unease. On a index level, we have Health Care, Staples and Energy outperforming while Info tech and Industrials were the biggest losers (RADAR > SECTORS)
Underneath the pain yesterday was another momentum blow up, it actually ranks as one of the top 10 momentum sell offs in the post ChatGPT era. The main victims were late longs who added exposure over the last 2 days. Dont fomo the top, dont panic sell the bottom.
Another point that has floated up is that higher yields are going to be

a very non sexy reason for today's sell off is that we were up 50% on tickers like $SNDK, $NBIS. remember - dont fomo the top, dont panic sell the bottom. good luck

Pre Market Thoughts - 18 Aug 26
Yields are higher across the curve with new highs in the 30Y at 5.3%. Across the index, we see Consumer staples suffering while Energy is up (See sector performance breakdown on under RADAR tab > SECTORS). Factor wise momentum and high beta has led a very strong rebound with a 7-9% MTD bounce (RADAR tab > ROTATION)
In overnight US markets we had strong performance led by the memory sector while neoclouds were generally held down. We also saw a resumption of the semis up, hyperscalers down performance.
The most consequential news was Anthropic releasing that it

Pre Market Thoughts - 17 Aug 26
Korean markets are closed today for Liberation day. Meanwhile $NKY is up about 0.75%. Memory has performed strongly today with $285A up 15%. It is at 62k JPY right now. After the buyback was announced, $285A dropped to 41k JPY lows. I made the call to get in on that retracement. It is almost 50% up.
The best time to buy is exactly when it is scary. Consequently, the worst time to buy is when it feels so safe.
As a retail investor, you have no business being short. The R/R of a long is infinitely higher than the R/R of a short. If you timed the $285A short to the

Pre Market Thoughts - 14 Aug 26
Yesterday's $SNDK investor day sparked a huge rebound across memory. Collectively, the entire investor crowd remembered that $SNDK and the rest of the memory companies have enough cash and are committed to buying back stock. $SNDK expects to collect about 94B in value from 8 clients and expects to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders.
It is deeply ironic that memory rebounded just as some of the loudest voice on fintwit turned bearish. Always remember, there is a reason why they separate an analyst role from a trading role.
At this point, let me highligh

$SNDK up 15% today - remember who were the ones who got bearish at the bottom - who were the ones who told you the entire playbook - that the new buyers of memory are the companies themselves and patient capital.

Pre Market Thoughts - 13 Aug 26
Yields at the highs - with 30Y at 5.25% and 10Y at 4.68%. At this point, i think people have broadly accepted that risk free rates will be elevated. What does this mean? The cost of equity is also higher. My point to this is that, only high quality high cashflow businesses are investable. Everything else will have a hurdle to cross. AI is the civilisational level build out and will be the only game in town.
Repeat after me - Neocloud summer.
Asia markets are buoyant with $KOSPI up 3% and $NKY up 1.2%. We have memory names like $285A and $0660 up about 5% as well

at what point does Burry throw in the towel on his shorts?

REPEAT AFTER ME - NEOCLOUD SUMMER