Degentrading

$ORCL OAS vs Tenor - while the credit spread is definitely higher than before (as it should given the debt its taking on) - its not near distressed levels. Beware of charlatans telling you $ORCL is doomed because the debt is trading 30-50% off. See $TLT or $ZROZ?

Pre Market Thoughts - 24 Jul 26
Yields pretty much unchanged from yesterday. In Asia trading, markets were broadly weaker following a weak close into the NY session. $KOSPI is down 5.7% while $NKY is down 2.7%. Memory broadly is weaker with $0660 down 7% and $285A down 10%. This has dragged down pre market trading in $MU and $SNDK - with both down about 2% at this point.
Before i touch on the Asia performance - its important to look at the US session yesterday. We had an average of -5% on the Mags7/Bag7 (see the heatmaps on while semis were firm. The market is anticipating that $GOOG is not t

Pre Market Thoughts - 23 Jul 26
US yields inched higher - with bets on a fed hike rising together with crude prices. WTI is almost at 90, after plumbing the lows of a 6 handle just last month.
In asia markets, $KOSPI is up 4% while $NKY is up a smidge. $SKHYNIX (or $SK HIJINX) is up almost 6%. $SKHY also has affirmed that the cap for the ADR is at 2.5% - which means no new share issuance. This means that effectively $SKHY is a 30b mkt cap memory stonk. I would expect the 51% premium to continue to widen from here.
$GOOG earnings yesterday had a hilarious reaction by the many participants. We

EOD recap - 22 Jul 26
NY session was a chop with everyone clearly awaiting $GOOG results. OAI also announced a raise of spending to 750b from 600b through 2030...more capex...
Let's go over the $GOOG results.
First of all, semianalysis posted a tweet about $GOOG cloud earnings being primarily from TPU sales and hence it is becoming a hardware player. That could not be further from the truth. They simply misread the transcript. What it is saying is that $GOOG cloud earnings are split into product (mainly TPU sales) and services line (selling cloud services). Of course the product revenues will

Pre Market Thoughts - 21 Jul 26
Strong resurgence across markets in Asia. Both KOSPI and NKY are up more than 3% on the day led by strong bounces across the memory sector. $0660 is up almost 5% on the day while $285A is up 17% on the day after hitting a bottom of 49.6k - Back on my note on 17 Jul (thurs) i highlighted how the 49-52k zones are strong support zones for good value.
In pre market, we have $SNDK and $MU both up more than 5% on this. With $GOOG earnings coming on, i think we will see a resetting of positions. Given how most bulls have flipped bears - the pre earning action should be

EOD recap - 20 Jul 26
US markets got off a strong start with the Neoclouds basket rallying strongly (soon you will be able to see what sectors are doing well on $IREN and $CIFR led the rally - $IREN announced a new 2.8B deal, bringing its YE ARR to over 4B. The rest of the neocloud basket enjoyed a rally as the world recognises that we are indeed compute constrained. In my sunday note, i wrote that "neo valuations are aat bottom of the range. If you dont believe in NBIS, consider doing a basket" - At this point, more neo names will start announcing deals. Doing a basket, you will be able to e

EOD recap - 17 Jul 26
A short one because i am typing this out while out. Pre market prices marked the low for multiple tickers like $SNDK, $MU, $NBIS. Into the NY session, we had an early lurch downwards before prices in these beaten down names staged a strong bounce. This however dribbled down into the close.
In terms of fundamentals, more tests have shown that Kimi K3 is not cheaper than GPT. This is a significant phase shift from the chinese are much cheaper and catching up to the chinese are just as expensive. Again like what i said earlier, a huge part of the progress made by Kimi was li

Pre Market Thoughts - 17 Jul 26
Brutal morning in asia trading. Korea markets are closed today. NKY was down as much as 6% at one point in early morning trading, a sign that the panic contagion from NY markets has indeed spread into Asia. I look at this via the terminal ( where you can customize the tickers you add in and this makes the relationships between price moves in ticker to really pop.
$285A is down 16% today to 52K JPY. I see strong support for this at about 49-52k zone. In overnight markets, memory tickers like $SNDK have reached 1320 and $MU near 800s. These are at my buy zones and

cost per task of Kimi K3 and GPT 5.6 is about the same? Kimi is half the token price but uses twice as much tokens

Pre market thoughts - 16 Jul 26
Bloodied morning again in Asia as the KOSPI come to terms with the memory sell off in $MU and $SNDK in NY time. $SKHYNIX was down 12%, retracing its previous bounce off the 1.7m KRW levels.
The surprising mover was $285A however, down 15%. This is a much more significant move than $SKHYNIX.
$TSMC also reported earnings, strong beats across with EPS at 4.3 vs 3.77 and a beat in revenues as well. However, during the last earnings, TSMC also reported breakout earnings but tanked about 5% from 385 to 360s.
As we near big tech earnings, i would expect memory to star

EOD update 16 Jul 26
US market had frantic activity throughout the session. Memory faltered right from the start with $SNDK plunging to new local lows of 1479s - over 16% for the day. This reversed in the middle of the day with $SNDK and $MU tied neck to neck for losses at about -8%.
Neos were beaten down as well, however $NBIS performed quite firmly. Post the Trump tweet on Datacenters, $NBIS had a vibe shift in it's price action and staged quite a strong rebound. For friday's $NBIS expiry, we have some amount of gamma at the 220s zone, this could be worth watching for.
Structurally, today wa

Market update - 15 Jul 26
Memory took a hit in pre market trading without much news. However selling exacerbated on the open with $SNDK down 10% and $MU down 6% as well. Meanwhile nothing on the index level as the Mag 7s perform in levitating up the index as a whole. $AAPL has hit ATH levels.
In other news, $BABA is trading up 25% above where i highlighted that even Burry selling must mean the bottom is here. The sep calls have paid off rather quickly.

For my followers who havent seen me in a while - comment below! its good to say hi!

EOD recap - 13 Jul 26
US markets found its footing after the first 30 minutes with semis staging a decent recovery despite the drubbing that Korean memory tickers took in Asia. This looked hopeful until we had a confluence of headlines (Iran, Fed) that soured risk sentiment. Within the various sectors, neos were broadly sold down, $NBIS regained its previous position as the most defensive of the lot. $GLXY traded surprisingly weak, despite widespread market speculation for a deal announcement soon.
Going into tomorrow, we have KOSPI on a precarious edge. Retail buying in KR has been balancing

Post KRX close - 13 Jul
$0660 rounded off the day down 15%. This is the largest drawdown for $0660 this year since the start of the memory cycle. Early in the AM, a brokerage downgraded $0660, believing it will miss revenues on lower ASPs since $0660 has a higher mix of HBMs that are also locked in LTAs. Logically, this should finally make $0660 less cyclical and improve the PE ratio that investors are willing to pay. The market's reaction is however reflective of the fear and the overweight positioning in $0660 as it sold $0660 in a furious storm. Looking out, i see 1.85m KRW and 1.6m KRW as

Pre market thoughts - 13 Jul
Yields up 2bps across the curve, oil up with brent trading near 79s as war with Iran is back on.
In asia trading, markets were weak. $KOSPI down more than 5% as of this writing, driven by $0660 being down ~12%. Rest of korean stock performed better, helping to hold up the index against this puke in $SKHYNIX. This is surprising given Friday's close in $SKHY - expect the divergence between $SKHY and $0660 to widen as korean locals look increasingly tapped out of liquidity.
NKY took a sympathy down leg too at -1.5%. $285A is also similarly affected, down 10%.
Surprisi