$SKHY listing - 10 Jul 26
Special post because looking at $7709 HK today really caught my eye.
First of all, $7709 HK is a 2x SK Hynix ETF listed in HK. For a long time, this was the only way for people outside of Korea to get exposure to $SKHY.
Hence, the AUM of this ETF swelled as market participants rushed in.
I had an initial hypothesis that $7709 HK was sold quite heavily today as participants who had to rely on it now have a better option in $SKHY.
Because creation and redemption for $7709 is not announced in real time. One way to proxy how much $0660 got sold down is the discount in the

SK Hynix-0.27%

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GateUser-c3c7f5a1:

BTC bullish on breaking up to 65,000; ETH trades in a tight range this year with no action.

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14h ago

Pre Market Thoughts - 10 Jul 26
Anxiety still seen within Asia markets as morning trading started. Despite a surge in $SKHY implied in US markets, local KR shares started plummeting into the open, dropping as much as 6%. This gave many participants a heart attack - though it quickly proved to be a head fake with KOSPI trading up 4.6%. NKY continued to trade firmly, up 1.5%. The character of markets has definitely changed into one that is much less momentum driven.
Taking into context KOSPI's performance, i can say that most levered players have probably been flushed out. The most recent drawdo

META6.01%

PENG-3.77%

ORCL-2.14%

GS-0.05%

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07-09 14:54

Market thoughts - 9 Jul 26
Funny how bad and fake news comes right at a certain timing and being pushed by a few accounts. A week on, we are now receiving the reverse - news that refute that Meta has excess capacity. My initial read was that Meta was going to increase capex - this is looking to turn to be a reality. The upcoming earnings if that gets reflected will be another tail wind for semis.
In terms of sectors, even photonics caught a bid today. This has been lagging the market for awhile. Away from that Memory is up 7%, likewise along with memory pooling solutions. $PENG was up 13% toda

META6.01%

PENG-3.77%

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07-09 10:36

Pre Market Thoughts - 9 Jul 26
Yields inched higher across the curve. The AI capex build out in my mind is intrinsically tied to US yields as capex driven demand pushes up cost of funding even on the sovereign end. Asia markets today performed weakly relative to the US close.
KOSPI fell as much as 5% from the open to the low, driven by derisking seen in $SKHY as markets start setting the price for $SKHY for friday's NY open. NKY was up 1.4%, a strong showing relative to Korea. It was also revealed that Bain has already disposed of its entire stake in $285A Kioxia. Looking at the chart, it is e

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07-08 19:59

$META pumping 10B to build a DC in canada. Yes - tell me that we are not in a structural shortage for compute

META6.01%

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07-07 20:29

EOD recap - 7 Jul 26
Bruising day for momentum with the selling climax in the middle of the day. All high beta sectors were hit regardless of whether they were connected to the semis theme or not.
In memory, $MU and $SNDK ended the day down 5% and 7%. Overall $SNDK defended the 1.5k level listed earlier. $MU traded a tad stronger taking a few looks below 900.
Neoclouds were down across the board by about 10% with $CRWV coming out ahead by being down only 3.5%. Again, this is the second day of a strong performance by $CRWV within the sector.
Towards the later half of the day, $META released it

MMT17.76%

MU-1.19%

SNDK3.10%

CRWV-0.82%

META6.01%

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07-07 19:34

"Despite those efforts, META is still hungry for even more computing power, the spokesperson said. It is still moving forward with plans for expensive new data centers and recently inked major computing deals with Coreweave, Alphabet, Oracle among others"

META6.01%

CRWV-0.82%

ORCL-2.14%

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07-07 19:29

META6.01%

CRWV-0.82%

ORCL-2.14%

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07-07 16:39

lets keep the capex going

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07-07 15:50

Days like this test your thesis. That said, if you feel sad or under, go out and get some sunlight. Talk to a friend. Eat something nice. Pet your dog.

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07-07 13:42

The first stand for semi momo names

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07-07 09:41

Why is compute in shortage? How can neoclouds projects be at 2 year paybacks?

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07-06 18:18

mkt thoughts - 6 jul 26
A tale of 2 cities in terms of performance. Names with overweight positioning definitely feeling the gravity today as they sink deeper into the red while the rest of the names in their sectors stage strong rallies. In neoclouds, performance was led by $SHAZ and $IREN on potential anthropic deals. Meanwhile $NBIS floundered while even $CRWV managed to trade firmly. In memory, $SNDK continues to plunge the lows of thursday while $MU is not that far behind. The commonality between these heavy names are their massively overweight positioning and status as retail go to names

SHAZ-6.52%

IREN-1.50%

NBIS1.55%

CRWV-0.82%

SNDK3.10%

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07-06 16:07

$SHAZ is a 2.5B neocloud with 40,000 GB300s that works out to be 2-4B in ARR. A 3 year deal is 6B-12B.

SHAZ-6.52%

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07-06 13:59

Market Thoughts - 6 Jul 26
SPX got off to a good start off the open. Across momentum, we are seeing some amount of relief rally. However, popular momentum names opened weak even relative to their sector. For example, in neos, $NBIS was underperforming the entire sector, in memory $SNDK was trading extremely heavy as well. While other momo names in their sectors are able to gap up and do a relief rally, the overweight positioning in those names is keeping a lid on them at the moment as weak hands sell into the relief. I would expect this PA to ease off later on.
We also had news that Situationa

SPX-0.15%

NBIS1.55%

SNDK3.10%

MU-1.19%

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DucQuang:

excellent

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07-06 12:57

Coatue and Situational Awareness anchoring $SKHY

SKHY1.22%

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07-06 11:39

This is gonna be unpopular esp for bullish people like me - but the fact that what semi analysis says, has the ability to spook the market - suggests to me that photonics and CPOs have more room to correct

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07-06 05:30

Pre market thoughts - 6 Jul 26
Since the quarterly end rebalancing, yields have inched higher silently with the 10Y at 4.46 and 30y at 4.97. Overnight we had some lacklustre price action in asia markets. As of this writing, KOSPI is down 0.7% while NKY is down 0.3% - both memory markets having retraced some of their huge bounces last friday (~7% on KOSPI, ~5% on NKY).
Over night, it was also leaked that Anthropic was looking to lease up to 1.4GW of compute in australia. First of all, this will have to be done via multiple participants, because there is no singular massive cluster in Australia

SHAZ-6.52%

SPCX-4.41%

GOOG-0.32%

NVDA4.06%

IREN-1.50%

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07-05 16:30

The economics of a Neocloud - Why selling compute is like printing cash

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07-05 09:48

The Week Forward - 5 Jul 26
To get prepared for the trading week ahead, i always found it particularly useful to organize my thoughts and to prepare a battle plan prior.
*Recap of Last Week
A quick recap on last week’s price action. We had a huge momentum sell off last week, reaching the most brutal 2day move since Covid. It was not a semis sell off, rather it was a factor sell off ($NVDA held firm while memory puked nearly 20%). In terms of positioning, i believe that most of the crowded longs and “weak hands” have been washed out. For context, pod funds have been implicitly long momentum in

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