Degentrading

Pre Market Thoughts - 11 Aug 26
US yields higher by about 3-4bps across the curve alongside the move higher in oil. We had a flurry of headlines overnight of varying importance.
First is a rather direct admission by the US about their relative impotence in Iran, which presumably means the conflict stews for longer in a low grade conflict. Which isnt a terrible thing at the end of the day.
Next is $NVDA Jenson rounding up 6 major counterparties for a 500B financing deal. This number seems oddly specific. My guess is that the recipients of these will be $SPCX and the neoclouds. What NVDA is doin

On a totally unrelated markets post - In Singapore, we always had a K shape economy. What has become increasingly clear and dangerous is that the bottom K has entirely fell off the cliff.
First - the students. Fresh grads are looking down a bottomless pit on finding FT employment, with many readjusting their expectations. There are jobs, just not the ones they wanted to do.
Next - the SMEs/businesses. Many businesses with a real estate need (think F&B, retail) are basically dead/underwater. After deducting for rent, salaries, COGS, most of them have no margins.
Corporates - are doing good. SG

wow - they really got all the people to rotate from memory into photonics only to nuke photonics 10% in a single session lmao

Pre Market Thoughts - 10 Aug 26
Yields unchanged into Asia. Gold and Oil are also sitting unchanged as we head into a new week.
Asia trading was quiet with KOSPI up 0.65% and NKY up 2%. Korea markets remains dragged down by $0660 though however it looks increasingly likely that the short term selling flows are drying up. To me it is likely that $SKHY PA will resemble $Samsung - BofA also expects that $0660 will return 50% of FCF - on 2026 expectations of 140 trn won (98b) and 240 trn won (170b) for 2027 - $0660 is about 710b, at these levels the FCF returns will be about 190b, about 27% of th

Pre Market Thoughts - 10 Aug 26
Yields unchanged into Asia. Gold and Oil are also sitting unchanged as we head into a new week.
Asia trading was quiet with KOSPI up 0.65% and NKY up 2%. Korea markets remains dragged down by $0660 though however it looks increasingly likely that the short term selling flows are drying up. To me it is likely that $SKHY PA will resemble $Samsung - BofA also expects that $0660 will return 50% of FCF - on 2026 expectations of 140 trn won (98b) and 240 trn won (170b) for 2027 - $0660 is about 560b, at these levels the FCF returns will be about 135b, about 24% of th

Over the weekend, went for a funeral. Good reminder to take a look at your loved ones, treasure them. Life is more than just numbers on a screen!

$CRWV is up while $NBIS is battered goes to show that semis liquidity is not back at what it used to be.

Pre Market Thoughts - 7 Aug 26
Treasury yields inched up across the curve together with the move in crude oil. Besides WTI, the other interesting commodity making a move are XAU and XAG. In particular, short positioning across the XAG complex could lead to follow on buying should we see a sustained move upwards there.
Overnight US markets drifted lower, digesting the gains from the past few days. Semis took a hit across the board yesterday with Memory in particular retracing post SNDK earnings. Much of the damage was done pre market and it is interesting to note that the lows of the day were s

burry shorted $ORCL at 144 and $NBIS at 211

$SHAZ earnings - nothing new except the B300s 5Y contract (done at ~4.15, contract is about 3y payback (includes shell), remaining 2y is pure profit) ....1.9B cash on b/s, has convert debt. 2B mkt cap.

Pre Market Thoughts - 6 Aug 26
US yields unchanged, crude grinding against the lows of the range. The main driver for the Asia session was the market's reaction to the US session overnight as well as SNDK earnings.
A couple of things to unpack here. Over the US session, we had a broad consolidation move in both the indexes as well as in the sectors that were the prime movers over the last few days. Neoclouds, memory and hyperscalers were weighted as the market digested the rapid moves over the last few days.
$SNDK earnings - revs of ~9B vs 8.6B, EPS of 39 vs 34 ex. These set of numbers were st

after new rules for Korea margin - Koreans are now buying 2x inverse KOSPI etfs...
With the ₩30 million deposit rule on single-stock leverage, index inverse ETFs are packed — retail buys ₩500bn.
The rule: effective July 31, minimum deposit for single-stock leveraged ETFs/ETNs went from ₩10M to ₩30M, and substitute securities (stocks, ETFs, bonds) that previously counted for up to 70% no longer qualify.
Day one: retail net-sold over ₩1 trillion of single-stock leverage. Biggest sales were KODEX SK Hynix leverage (₩587.9bn), KODEX Samsung leverage (₩215.6bn), TIGER SK Hynix leverage (₩153.7bn).

9B rebal flow atm

When it was lower, nobody wanted to buy. "Top is in" .. Now watch it go to ATHs without you. What has changed? we got all the weak hands out.