Degentrading

bad headline for $MSFT

Earnings Capex guide
$META guided capex to top of 145b
$GOOG guided to 180-190b
$MSFT guided to 190b
generally all capex estimates for 2026 was just guided about 10b higher on avg - $META down 10% and $MSFT down 3.6% as the market punishes them for having too much capex vs fcf

Some thoughts -
We have 4 of the hyperscalers going into earnings today $GOOG, $AMZN, $MSFT $META - market will probably be watching the hyperscalers for their capex guidance. Any slowing down will be bearish for AI tickers while the market reaction to upside surprises can be a good gauge of strength. As a reminder, post $TSMC blow out earnings, it actually suffered a drop.
Expectations going into earnings
$META - the largest announced step up in capex, 2026 guidance of $115-135b from 2025's 69B. If $META delivers anything close to 30B for Q1, that will be an indication for urgency
$AMZN - 20

Some thoughts -
$NVDA going for a breakout will probably suck liquidity for AI names first before resetting the floor for AI valuations.
However, yst $POET dropping led to big hits in unrelated names like $SIVE, $LPTH - shows how much retail concentration and unrealised PnL there is in the market.
If $NVDA fails to break out, this is probably the local top in AI and high beta names will get hit
This week, we have most of the big names announcing earnings and also their CAPEX plans. While i dont think there will be any material shock to the numbers, the market's reaction will be interesting to

generally soggy price action to start off in $nvda and $intc for the cpu cowboys. $nvda and $intc failing to break through 200 and 70 respectively is putting a lid on the entire mkt thus far. $tsm post earnings performance has also been lacklustre with a strong skew to selling

Middle East pulling back funding - the exodus begins