Degentrading

which pod blew up? "the leopod" - u are welcome for a source of joy in these trying times

no idea why but likewise to yst - selling for certain stuff seemed to have stopped after 1230 ET.

Pre Market Thoughts - 29 Jul 26
Yields lower from yesterday as we approach FOMC day. Predatory price action seen on the Asia open. Post $0660 earnings where it was a miss, markets initially took a gap down with $0660 trading to 1.4m KRW levels, this proved to be a head fake as it then recovered losses to 1.6m KRW levels - triggering a sympathy rally across names in the US overnight session. However, this proved to be short-lived as $0660 then went for the 1.2m KRW support levels, with $MU trading to 750s and $SNDK briefly touching below 1000 levels.
However, post that support touch, $0660 has

$BE earnings
EPS 0.78 v 0.41 expected
Rev 1.06B vs 827M expected

Market Update - 29 Jul 26
$MU 820, $SNDK 1111 NBIS $170

Tickers below 17 Jul lows vs Counterparts above
SNDK vs MU
NOK
SKHY vs Samsung
ALAB vs CRDO

$ORCL OAS vs Tenor - while the credit spread is definitely higher than before (as it should given the debt its taking on) - its not near distressed levels. Beware of charlatans telling you $ORCL is doomed because the debt is trading 30-50% off. See $TLT or $ZROZ?

Pre Market Thoughts - 24 Jul 26
Yields pretty much unchanged from yesterday. In Asia trading, markets were broadly weaker following a weak close into the NY session. $KOSPI is down 5.7% while $NKY is down 2.7%. Memory broadly is weaker with $0660 down 7% and $285A down 10%. This has dragged down pre market trading in $MU and $SNDK - with both down about 2% at this point.
Before i touch on the Asia performance - its important to look at the US session yesterday. We had an average of -5% on the Mags7/Bag7 (see the heatmaps on while semis were firm. The market is anticipating that $GOOG is not t

Pre Market Thoughts - 23 Jul 26
US yields inched higher - with bets on a fed hike rising together with crude prices. WTI is almost at 90, after plumbing the lows of a 6 handle just last month.
In asia markets, $KOSPI is up 4% while $NKY is up a smidge. $SKHYNIX (or $SK HIJINX) is up almost 6%. $SKHY also has affirmed that the cap for the ADR is at 2.5% - which means no new share issuance. This means that effectively $SKHY is a 30b mkt cap memory stonk. I would expect the 51% premium to continue to widen from here.
$GOOG earnings yesterday had a hilarious reaction by the many participants. We

EOD recap - 22 Jul 26
NY session was a chop with everyone clearly awaiting $GOOG results. OAI also announced a raise of spending to 750b from 600b through 2030...more capex...
Let's go over the $GOOG results.
First of all, semianalysis posted a tweet about $GOOG cloud earnings being primarily from TPU sales and hence it is becoming a hardware player. That could not be further from the truth. They simply misread the transcript. What it is saying is that $GOOG cloud earnings are split into product (mainly TPU sales) and services line (selling cloud services). Of course the product revenues will

Pre Market Thoughts - 21 Jul 26
Strong resurgence across markets in Asia. Both KOSPI and NKY are up more than 3% on the day led by strong bounces across the memory sector. $0660 is up almost 5% on the day while $285A is up 17% on the day after hitting a bottom of 49.6k - Back on my note on 17 Jul (thurs) i highlighted how the 49-52k zones are strong support zones for good value.
In pre market, we have $SNDK and $MU both up more than 5% on this. With $GOOG earnings coming on, i think we will see a resetting of positions. Given how most bulls have flipped bears - the pre earning action should be

EOD recap - 20 Jul 26
US markets got off a strong start with the Neoclouds basket rallying strongly (soon you will be able to see what sectors are doing well on $IREN and $CIFR led the rally - $IREN announced a new 2.8B deal, bringing its YE ARR to over 4B. The rest of the neocloud basket enjoyed a rally as the world recognises that we are indeed compute constrained. In my sunday note, i wrote that "neo valuations are aat bottom of the range. If you dont believe in NBIS, consider doing a basket" - At this point, more neo names will start announcing deals. Doing a basket, you will be able to e

EOD recap - 17 Jul 26
A short one because i am typing this out while out. Pre market prices marked the low for multiple tickers like $SNDK, $MU, $NBIS. Into the NY session, we had an early lurch downwards before prices in these beaten down names staged a strong bounce. This however dribbled down into the close.
In terms of fundamentals, more tests have shown that Kimi K3 is not cheaper than GPT. This is a significant phase shift from the chinese are much cheaper and catching up to the chinese are just as expensive. Again like what i said earlier, a huge part of the progress made by Kimi was li

Pre Market Thoughts - 17 Jul 26
Brutal morning in asia trading. Korea markets are closed today. NKY was down as much as 6% at one point in early morning trading, a sign that the panic contagion from NY markets has indeed spread into Asia. I look at this via the terminal ( where you can customize the tickers you add in and this makes the relationships between price moves in ticker to really pop.
$285A is down 16% today to 52K JPY. I see strong support for this at about 49-52k zone. In overnight markets, memory tickers like $SNDK have reached 1320 and $MU near 800s. These are at my buy zones and

cost per task of Kimi K3 and GPT 5.6 is about the same? Kimi is half the token price but uses twice as much tokens

Pre market thoughts - 16 Jul 26
Bloodied morning again in Asia as the KOSPI come to terms with the memory sell off in $MU and $SNDK in NY time. $SKHYNIX was down 12%, retracing its previous bounce off the 1.7m KRW levels.
The surprising mover was $285A however, down 15%. This is a much more significant move than $SKHYNIX.
$TSMC also reported earnings, strong beats across with EPS at 4.3 vs 3.77 and a beat in revenues as well. However, during the last earnings, TSMC also reported breakout earnings but tanked about 5% from 385 to 360s.
As we near big tech earnings, i would expect memory to star