BTC Market Review + Practical Operation Summary

1. Market Situation Update and Review

Current price BTC 63158U, ETH 1664.16U, all previous low-level predictions have been fulfilled:

1. BTC's previous low point at 59130U experienced oversold correction, the 1-hour MACD formed a bullish crossover confirming a rebound, short-term rebound above 63000, reaching the first resistance zone of 61000-63500 previously indicated; daily chart remains in the Bollinger lower band weak zone, the overall trend of the larger cycle has not reversed, only short-term emotional recovery.
2. ETH's previous low at 1505.68U halted decline and rebounded, also oversold correction, now at 1664, touching the lower pressure of the daily Bollinger middle band at 1640-1680, matching the previously analyzed resistance levels; 4-hour bearish momentum has weakened, but on a larger scale, it remains in a correction channel.

2. Review of Previous Cycle Predictions Fulfillment

1. Short-term logic has fully materialized

Previous predictions relied on key support lows for oscillation and recovery, with all rebound target pressure zones fulfilled:

- BTC support at 59800-60300, resistance at 60800-61365, this round of rebound directly surged to 63158, breaking through the first resistance level;
- ETH support at 1505-1534, resistance at 1564-1595, current price at 1664, completing the first rebound pressure zone.
The pessimistic scenario of weak rebound and a second bottom delay has been temporarily postponed; the current market oversold conditions have attracted bottom-fishing funds driving the recovery.

2. Mid-term range operation logic remains unchanged

The core oscillation range for the mid-term remains:

- BTC core range 59000-63500, current price near the upper pressure at 63500, which is a medium-term strong resistance; if unable to hold, it will likely fall back to 59500-61500 for support; only in extreme weakness will it test support at 5800.
- ETH mid-term range 1480-1680, current price near the upper boundary at 1680, if BTC weakens further, ETH is likely to retest support at 1480-1505.

3. Long-term underlying logic remains intact

BTC halving cycle and ETH ecosystem long-term value logic have not changed; the recent decline is only a short-term emotional sell-off. The judgment that BTC below 58000 and ETH below 1400 are extremely undervalued investment zones remains valid.

3. Review and Adjustment Reminders for Position Holders

1. Existing core position holders

Previous strategy: partial profit-taking at resistance zones, small-scale replenishment at support levels, with strict stop-loss.

Current review:

- BTC: now at above 63000 resistance, disciplined partial profit-taking to realize gains, some profits taken, core holdings kept for observation; stop-loss at 59000, unconditional exit if broken.
- ETH: current at 1664 near the strong resistance zone of 1640-1680, also executing partial reduction, prioritizing short-term profit realization; stop-loss at 1490 remains unchanged, stop all replenishment if broken.
The previous support dip-buying has provided a safe exit window for this rebound; avoid greed, prevent short-term gains from turning into losses.

2. Cash-only waiting users

Previous strategy: layered deployment in two phases, no all-in, strictly wait for support zones, abandon positions if key support is broken.

Current review:

The low-level opportunity at 59800-60500 and around 1550 has passed; currently at high resistance levels, not suitable for new long positions chasing the rally.
Patience is advised; wait for price to retest support zones before layering again. If no retest occurs, stay in cash and observe, avoiding chasing highs, aligning with previous discipline of trading patience.

4. Key Risk Control Discipline Review and Reinforcement

1. The previously set market lifeline at BTC 58400, if broken, all coins pause buying, cash risk-avoidance rules remain; current price far from this level, so position increase restrictions are temporarily lifted, but new heavy positions at high levels are prohibited.
2. If a single coin breaks its critical support line, immediately stop replenishment and execute strict small-loss stops.
3. This rebound is a technical oversold correction, not a trend reversal. Do not mistake it for the end of the bear market and go all-in blindly. Total position limit remains within 60%, with 40% cash reserved for potential second bottoms.

5. Summary

The oversold rebound of BTC and ETH this round fully aligns with the early low-level recovery predictions, with precise fulfillment of support and resistance points. The layered deployment, pressure reduction, and support low-buying operational system has been validated.
Currently, the market has reached the mid-term upper boundary; the core strategy shifts to realizing short-term profits, reducing new high-level positions, patiently waiting for the next dip to buy low, strictly adhering to position and stop-loss risk management rules, and not letting short-term emotional rebounds disrupt operational rhythm.