📊 Deep Analysis of Bitcoin's Recent Market Trends

The recent Bitcoin market can be summarized with three keywords:
🔹 Volatility and Pullback
🔹 Relief in Capital Outflow Pressure
🔹 Structural Support Still Holds
—— 1. Price Trends and Key Support Levels
Since the market peaked last October, Bitcoin has declined by approximately 50%. Compared to previous bear markets, this retracement is significantly narrower:
2014 bear market maximum decline: about 85%
2019 bear market: about 84%
Last cycle bear market: about 77%
This cycle so far: only about 50%
The price is currently oscillating around $60k, which corresponds to several market structure indicators:
📌 On-chain Cost Basis (Long-term Reference)
Median Realized Price: ≈ $64.1k
200-week Moving Average: ≈ $61.7k
Historically, Bitcoin has spent only about 7% of trading time below this level, highlighting its importance.
📌 Further Support Zones (Low Probability of Being Reached)
$54k: Realized Price
$46.2k: CVDD Bottom Anchor
$40k: Equilibrium Price
$35k: Extreme Panic Zone
Overall, the $46,000–$54k range is more likely to form a deep correction bottom, while $35,000–$40k represents an extreme risk zone.
—— 2. Capital Flows and Selling Pressure Changes
Recently, important signals have appeared in the US spot Bitcoin ETF:
🔸 BTC spot ETF has ended 13 consecutive days of net outflows
🔸 ETH spot ETF has also ended 17 days of net outflows, turning into slight net inflows
This indicates:
✔ Selling pressure is beginning to ease
✔ Short-term panic may be nearing its end
✔ Market capital flows are gradually stabilizing
The halt in capital outflows itself is a structural turning point, supporting short-term price stabilization.
—— 3. On-chain Loss Data Indicates Market Depth
Since the market peak, Bitcoin holders have realized losses totaling about $174 billion. Although large, this is still below the previous bear market peak of approximately $211 billion.
This suggests:
📌 The market has not yet experienced the deepest capital cleansing
📌 There is still room for further consolidation below
📌 The current price range resembles a mid-bear market bottoming process rather than an extreme low.
—— 4. Short-term Strategies and Investor Behavior
In an environment of volatility and divergence, market characteristics include:
🔹 Short-term support concentrated around $60k
🔹 Selling pressure weakens as capital outflows ease
🔹 Large institutional players tend to remain on the sidelines
In terms of short-term trading strategies, oscillating around the $60,000–$65k range is more probable.
—— 5. Summary of Views
📌 Bitcoin is likely to stabilize around key support levels
📌 The bear market structure has not yet ended, but the market is entering a balanced phase
📌 Follow-up indicators:
Price effectively holding above $65k
Continued capital inflow trend
If these two conditions are met, the subsequent price may challenge:
First recovery target: $75,000–$79k
Mid-term resistance: around $93k
Overall, short-term market volatility is normal; focusing on structural support and capital flows is more important than chasing quick gains or panic selling.
📌 For long-term followers, Bitcoin’s value still lies in holding and steady positioning, rather than short-term market fluctuations.
#BTC #ETH #比特币 Ethereum