Recently, looking at macroeconomics has been much more useful than analyzing candlestick charts... When interest rates rise, the market's risk appetite drops as if it’s losing air, everyone claims to be a long-term investor in words, but they reduce their positions first in practice. To be honest, it’s not that I’m smarter, but I know I can’t handle the drawdowns, so when the interest rate trend isn’t in my favor, I turn off leverage first and keep some cash on hand until the market sentiment cools down.

And that interpretation that large on-chain transfers and hot/cold wallet movements on exchanges are "smart money," I usually just see as noise: many transfers are just address changes, consolidations, or risk control processes. Don’t jump to the conclusion that someone is front-running just because of a large transfer. If I really want to analyze, I’d rather look at the mempool congestion at the time, the failure rate of transactions, and whether there’s any abnormality in the block packing order—at least that reflects real on-chain friction.

To prevent impulsive trading, I have one simple trick: first, close the trading page, then review the reasons behind my last three failed or losing trades. If I can write down “why I must buy/sell now,” I’ll come back to trade; if not, I’ll just leave it for now, that’s it.