According to Saito Michio, Chief Economist at Nomura Securities Research Institute, tensions in the Middle East could make Japan's path toward interest rate hikes more complicated. Swap market pricing shows that traders expect a 75% chance of a rate hike in June and a 92% chance in July. However, Saito—former key official at the Japanese Ministry of Finance—warned that potential conflicts with Iran could further push up oil prices, thereby suppressing Japan's energy-dependent economy and making the Bank of Japan more cautious. "The timing is here, or at least very close," he pointed out, "but I am not sure the policy committee's path will be smooth." The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds briefly touched 2.8% on May 18, the highest level since 1996; Saito said this was "somewhat high," and a more appropriate range would be 2.0%–2.5%.